Predictor Of Wealth Research Articles

Rural-Urban Differences in Trends in the Wealth Index in Kenya: 1993-2009

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to construct a wealth index that could be compared over time in order to understand the trends in wealth in Kenya and determine predictors of change in wealth index. MethodsData were from the Demographic and Health Survey program collected in Kenya between 1993 and 2009. Variable categories were collapsed to match and factor analysis was performed on the 4-year pooled data to generate a harmonized wealth index. Possible predictors of wealth were selected from household variables available for all 4 years. Household sampling weights and stratification by rural/urban was used. ResultsOverall, wealth increased in Kenya between 1993 and 2008; however, when stratified, no significant increase existed in urban areas and a significant increase was identified in rural areas specifically between 2003 and 2008. The strongest predictor was education, with more than a standard deviation difference for secondary or higher levels of education over those with no education. The association of gender of the head of household and whether the head of household had a partner differed between rural and urban areas, with household heads who were women and those who had a partner having more wealth in urban areas but less wealth in rural areas. ConclusionWealth in Kenya increased over time, specifically in rural regions. Differences were identified in predictors of wealth by urban/rural residence, educational level, and gender of the head of household and should be taken into account when planning interventions to target those in disproportionately low wealth brackets.

Superannuation retirement balances: A surprising outcome

Although the guaranteed superannuation system is believed by many to provide a safe and adequate source of funds in retirement, some will be unpleasantly surprised. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significant effect of the economic cycle on the final accumulated balance in superannuation retirement accounts. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to illustrate the variance in outcomes that can be expected for a hypothetical individual. The expected accumulated superannuation balances for two hypothetical individuals are estimated. The spread of outcomes is used to illustrate the problem of using only the mean of the distribution as a predictor of wealth in the retirement years. Many retirees rely on superannuation to fund their retirement. However regular contributions to superannuation does not ensure a predictable outcome, and active management of contributions is required if retirement goals are to be met.

Balance sheets of early boomers: are they different from pre-boomers?

Nationally representative data are used to compare the magnitude, composition, and distribution of accumulated wealth of early boomers (born between 1946 and 1957) and pre-boomers (born between 1934 and 1945) at the same life cycle stage (ages 44–45, occurring in 1989 for pre-boomers and in 2001 for early boomers). Early boomers have accumulated greater mean wealth than pre-boomers at the same age, however median wealth did not change and net worth among lower-middle wealth groups declined. Multivariate analysis identified demographic change among those in the wealth distribution tails that indicates the increasing importance of education and race as predictors of wealth.

Synthetic Economies and the Social Question

Imagine we met only in cyberspace. Among the many things that would change are our wages and incomes and wealth. This paper argues that economies in today's synthetic worlds point with some accuracy to a future in which mental constructs dominate physical ones in the calculus of value. In that future economy, the pattern of human material inequality will be radically different. Not only will the body become less important as a predictor of wealth, but the entire income allocation system will change. Indeed, there is some hope that our singular, dominant income allocation system will be replaced by a menu of wildly different systems among which people can choose as they like. Thus there are two reasons to believe that the advent of avatar-mediated commerce will significantly reduce the ages-old tension around income distribution polices. First, sources of inequality that seem patently unfair (height among CEOs) will be removed, and second, people will be able to sort themselves according to their notions of social and economic justice. The Social Question that has bedeviled incomes policy experts since von Schmoller may be about to find its answer: in the avatar.