Predictor Of Long-term Survival Research Articles

Prognostic Significance of the Number of Removed Lymph Nodes in Pathologic Node-Negative Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Major lung resection combined with mediastinal lymph node dissection is the standard operation for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and lymph node staging is the main predictor of long-term survival. This study aims to identify the prognostic significance of the number of removed lymph nodes in patients with pathologic node-negative (pN0) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Five hundred thirty-six stage pN0 NSCLC patients, received curative resection between January 2004 and July 2011, were enrolled in this retrospective study. The prognostic factors including the number of removed lymph nodes and clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed. Increasing number of removed lymph nodes was associated with better overall survival (OS) (p = 0.009) of stage pN0 NSCLC patients. The number (p < 0.001) and stations (p = 0.011) of removed lymph nodes, tumor stage (p < 0.001), as well as tumor size (p = 0.017), were independent prognostic factors of stage pN0 NSCLC patients. Overall, patients with more than three stations of examined mediastinal lymph node (p = 0.001) owned better 5-year OS. In subgroup analyses, patients of stage T1 and T2 with more than 11 removed lymph nodes (p = 0.033 and p = 0.011, respectively), and patients of stage T3 with more than 16 removed lymph nodes (p < 0.001) obtained improvements of 5-year OS. The number of removed lymph nodes was not correlated with the incidence of postoperative complications (p = 0.130). The number of removed lymph nodes is an independent prognostic factor for stage pN0 NSCLC patients. Sufficient lymph node dissection is recommended to improve the prognosis of patients with pN0 NSCLC.

Overview of malignant tracheal tumors.

Malignant airway tumors present particular challenges for surgeons, namely: to distinguish symptoms from those of the more frequent benign airway diseases; to separate metastatic disease from the uncommon primary tumors; and to consider curative resection in appropriate candidates. Here, we present a critical review of tracheal malignant obstruction, focusing on the evaluation of a patient with malignant airway tumor, patient selection for resection and the predictors of long-term survival. The new development in primary tracheal tumors is an old story, that of making physicians aware that resection rates in epidemiologic studies remain low, mainly because opportunities for resection are missed.

Short-term Automated Quantification of Radiologic Changes in the Characterization of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Versus Nonspecific Interstitial Pneumonia and Prediction of Long-term Survival.

Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases presenting with nonspecific and overlapping radiologic findings may be difficult to diagnose without surgical biopsy. We hypothesized that baseline quantifiable radiologic features and their short-term interval change may be predictive of underlying histologic diagnosis as well as long-term survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presenting without honeycombing versus nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). Forty biopsy-confirmed IPF and 20 biopsy-confirmed NSIP patients with available high-resolution chest computed tomography 4 to 24 months apart were studied. CALIPER software was used for the automated characterization and quantification of radiologic findings. IPF subjects were older (66 vs. 48; P<0.0001) with lower diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide and higher volumes of baseline reticulation (193 vs. 83 mL; P<0.0001). Over the interval period, compared with NSIP, IPF patients experienced greater functional decline (forced vital capacity, -6.3% vs. -1.7%; P=0.02) and radiologic progression, as noted by greater increase in reticulation volume (24 vs. 1.74 mL; P=0.048), and decrease in normal (-220 vs. -37.7 mL; P=0.045) and total lung volumes (-198 vs. 58.1 mL; P=0.03). Older age, male gender, higher reticulation volumes at baseline, and greater interval decrease in normal lung volumes were predictive of IPF. Both baseline and short-term changes in quantitative radiologic findings were predictive of mortality. Baseline quantitative radiologic findings and assessment of short-term disease progression may help characterize underlying IPF versus NSIP in those with difficult to differentiate clinicoradiologic presentations. Our study supports the possible utility of assessing serial quantifiable high-resolution chest computed tomographic findings for disease differentiation in these 2 entities.

Long-term survival and cure model following liver resection for breast cancer metastases

IntroductionLong-term survival is still rarely achieved with current systemic treatment in patients with breast cancer liver metastases (BCLM). Extended survival after hepatectomy was examined in a select group of BCLM patients.Patients and methodsHepatectomy for BCLM was performed in 139 consecutive patients between 1985 and 2012. Patients who survived < 5 years were compared to those who survived ≥ 5 years from first diagnosis of hepatic metastases. Predictive factors for survival were analyzed. Statistically cured, defined as those patients who their hazard rate returned to that of the general population, was analyzed.ResultsOf the 139, 43 patients survived ≥ 5 years. Significant differences between patient groups (< 5 vs. ≥ 5 years) were mean time interval between primary tumor and hepatic metastases diagnosis (50 vs. 43 months), mean number of resected tumors (3 vs. 2), positive estrogen receptors (54% vs. 79%), microscopic lymphatic invasion (65% vs. 34%), vascular invasion (63% vs. 37%), hormonal therapy after resection (34% vs. 74%), number of recurrence (40% vs. 65%) and repeat hepatectomy (1% vs. 42%), respectively. The probability of statistical cure was 14% (95% CI 1.4–26.7%) in these patients.ConclusionsHepatectomy combined with systemic treatment can provide a chance of long-term survival and even cure in selected patients with BCLM. Microscopic vascular/lymphatic invasion appears to be a novel predictor for long-term survival after hepatectomy for BCLM and should be part of the review when discussing multidisciplinary treatment strategies.

The value of preoperative Glasgow Prognostic Score and the C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio as prognostic factors for long-term survival in pathological T1N0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Plenty of studies have confirmed the prognostic values of inflammation-based prognostic scores in many malignant tumors. In present study, we aim to explore whether these indexes has same prognostic values in patients with stage T1N0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The clinicopathological data of 160 consecutive patients with pathological stage T1N0 ESCC from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected retrospectively. As prognostic factors, the inflammation-based prognostic scores, including C-reactive protein (CRP), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), prognostic index (PI), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and CRP to albumin ratio (CAR), were evaluated. The best cut-off values were determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The median follow-up time was 71.8 months. During the follow-up period, 34 (21.3%) patients occurred postoperative recurrence and 30 (18.8%) tumor-related deaths were recorded. The best cut-off values of CRP, NLR, PLR and CAR were 1.090, 1.976, 103.200 and 0.023, respectively. After multivariate analysis, the GPS and CAR were identified as independently prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) (p=0.017 and 0.040, respectively). Of all 160 individuals, there were 86 (53.8%) and 85 (53.1%) patients classified into high GPS group (1-2) and elevated CAR group (>0.023), respectively. In addition, the GPS were positively associated with PI (p<0.000) and the levels of serum CRP (p<0.000), NLR (p=0.004), PLR (p=0.029) and CAR (p<0.000) and the above correlations were also observed between the CAR and other inflammation-based prognostic scores (all p<0.050, except for p=0.054 for PLR levels). The preoperative GPS and CAR were simple, inexpensive, readily available predictor for long-term survival in stage T1N0 ESCC patients who underwent esophagectomy.

Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast (DSC) Perfusion MR in the Prediction of Long-Term Survival of Glioblastomas (GBM): Correlation with MGMT Promoter Methylation and 1p/19q Deletions

Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast (DSC) Perfusion MR in the Prediction of Long-Term Survival of Glioblastomas (GBM): Correlation with MGMT Promoter Methylation and 1p/19q Deletions

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p < 0.001 for both; C-statistic= 0.815 for ASCERT and 0.781 for PROM). Prolonged ventilation, stroke, and hospital length of stay were also predictive of long-term death. The ASCERT survival probability calculator was externally validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting.

Prognostic Significance of Tumor Regression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer after Preoperative Radiochemotherapy.

BackgroundThe majority of rectal cancers are discovered in locally advanced forms (UICC stage II, III). Treatment consists of preoperative radiochemotherapy, followed by surgery 6–8 weeks later and finally by postoperative chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to find out if tumor regression affected long-term survival in patients with localy advanced rectal cancer, treated with neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy.Patients and methodsPatients with rectal cancer stage II or III, treated between 2006 and 2010, were included in a retrospective study. Clinical and pathohistologic data were acquired from computer databases and information about survival from Cancer Registry. Survival was estimated according to Kaplan-Meier method. Significance of prognostic factors was evaluated in univariate analysis; comparison was carried out with log-rank test. The multivariate analysis was performed according to the Cox regression model; statistically significant variables from univariate analysis were included.ResultsTwo hundred and two patients met inclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 53.2 months. Stage ypT0N0 (pathologic complete response, pCR) was observed in 14.8% of patients. Pathohistologic stage had statistically significant impact on survival (p = 0.001). 5-year survival in patients with pCR was>90%. Postoperative T and N status were also found to be statistically significant (p = 0.011 for ypT and p < 0.001 for ypN). According to multivariate analysis, tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy was the only independent prognostic factor (p = 0.003).ConclusionsPathologic response of tumor to preoperative radiochemotherapy is an important prognostic factor for prediction of long-term survival of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-Term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma.

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree.Materials and MethodsThe medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristicswere assessed in both groups.ResultsOf the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making.ConclusionThe findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.

Prediction of Long-Term Survival After Lung Cancer Surgery for Elderly Patients in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database

Prior risk models using the STS General Thoracic Surgery database (STS-GTSD) have been limited to 30-day outcomes. We have now linked STS data to Medicare data and sought to create a risk prediction model for long-term mortality after lung cancer resection in patients older than 65 years. The STS-GTSD was linked to Medicare data for lung cancer resections from 2002 to 2013 as previously reported. Successful linkage was performed in 29,899 lung cancer resection patients. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to create a long-term survival model. Variable selection was performed using statistically significant univariate factors and known clinical predictors of outcome. Calibration was assessed by dividing the cohort into deciles of predicted survival and discrimination assessed with a C-statistic corrected for optimism via 1,000 bootstrap replications. Median age was 73 years (interquartile range, 68 to 78 years), and 48% of the patients were male. Of the 29,094 patients with nonmissing pathologic stage, 69% were stage I, 18% stage II, 11% stage III, and 2% stage IV. Procedure performed was lobectomy in 69%, bilobectomy in 3%, pneumonectomy in 3%, segmentectomy in 7%, sleeve lobectomy in 1%, and wedge resection in 17%. Thoracoscopic approach was performed in 47% of resections. The final Cox model reveals that stage and age are the strongest predictors of long-term survival. Even after controlling for stage, wedge resection, segmentectomy, bilobectomy, and pneumonectomy are all associated with increased hazard of death in comparison with lobectomy. Thoracoscopic approach is associated with improved long-term survival in comparison with thoracotomy. Other modifiable predictive factors include smoking and low body mass index. Calibration of the model demonstrates excellent performance across all survival deciles and a C-statistic of 0.694. The STS-GTSD-Medicare long-term risk model includes several novel factors associated with mortality. Although medical factors predict long-term survival, age and stage are the strong predictors. Despite this, procedure choice and thoracoscopic/open approach are potentially modifiable predictors of long-term survival after lung cancer resection.

Tolvaptan is effective in treating patients with refractory ascites due to cirrhosis.

The treatment of refractory ascites due to cirrhosis is a clinical challenge for hepatologists. Tolvaptan, a novel aquaporin modulator, was made available in Japan in 2013 for the treatment of patients with refractory ascites due to cirrhosis. Despite the potential of this drug, few reports are available regarding its clinical use. The aim of the present study was to clarify the efficacy of tolvaptan in patients with refractory ascites due to cirrhosis and to review the clinical outcomes of treatment. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed for 65 patients with refractory ascites due to cirrhosis who were treated daily with 7.5 mg tolvaptan. The median follow-up time, defined as the period between starting tolvaptan and the last clinic visit or date of mortality, was 175 days (interquartile range 56-406). After one week of tolvaptan treatment, the mean weight reduction was 3.4 kg, with a response rate of 69% (45/65). Subsequently, factors associated with the response to tolvaptan were analyzed. On univariate analysis, maintaining serum sodium (Na) ≥140 mEq/l and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥55 ml/min were significant predictors of response (P<0.05). On multivariate analysis, hepatitis C virus etiology, maintaining serum Na ≥140 mEq/l and an eGFR ≥55 ml/min were significant predictors of response (P<0.05). Factors associated with survival were also analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. On multivariate analysis, responsiveness to tolvaptan was a predictor of long-term survival (P=0.002), and hyperbilirubinemia was associated with short-term survival (P=0.028). Additionally, Kaplan-Meier analysis with a log-rank test indicated longer survival times in tolvaptan responders than non-responders (P=0.011). In conclusion, tolvaptan was effective in treating patients with refractory ascites due to cirrhosis. In particular, tolvaptan treatment was highly effective for patients with hepatitis C virus etiology and normal serum Na and renal function. Furthermore, response to tolvaptan was associated with longer survival time while hyperbilirubinemia was associated with shorter survival time.

Nomograms for prediction of long-term survival in elderly patients after partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Partial hepatectomy is an important treatment for elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, prediction of long-term outcomes of an individual elderly patient after partial hepatectomy still is lacking. This study aimed to develop 2 nomograms to pre- or postoperatively predict overall survival for these patients. Of the 528 elderly patients (aged ≥65years) who underwent partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2008 and 2011, 425 patients served as a training cohort to develop pre- and postoperative nomograms, and the remaining 103 patients comprised a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariable analyses of tumor recurrence and overall survival. Discrimination and calibration of the models were measured using the concordance index, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves. Based on preoperative data, the independent risk factors of overall survival were age ≥75years, Charlson score, α-fetoprotein ≥20μg/L, hepatitis B virus-deoxyribonucleic acid ≥104 IU/mL, and tumor diameter. Based on postoperative data, nonanatomic hepatectomy, absence of tumor encapsulation, and presence of microvascular invasion were additional independent risk factors. These independent predictors were incorporated into the pre- and postoperative nomograms, respectively. The concordance indexes of the 2 nomograms for overall survival prediction were 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.74) and 0.72 (0.69-0.78), respectively. Both nomograms accurately predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival probability, and their predictive performances were optimally validated. The proposed 2 nomograms showed good individualized predictive performance in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma before and after partial hepatectomy.

Prognostic impact of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level at diagnosis in resected stage I-III pancreatic adenocarcinoma: a U.S. population study.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is a highly aggressive cancer, with surgical resection and systemic therapy offering the only hope for long-term survival. Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) has been used as a prognostic marker after resection; however, the relationship between survival and pre-treatment CA 19-9 level remains unclear. This study evaluates pre-treatment serum CA 19-9 level as a predictor for long-term survival. The U.S. National Cancer Data Base [2004-2012] was reviewed for patients with clinical stages I-III resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma with recorded pre-treatment CA 19-9 levels (U/mL). Kaplan Meier and Weibull survival analyses were performed. Four thousand seven hundred and one patients were included: 12.6% received neoadjuvant therapy (NAT), 27.4% underwent surgery, and 60.1% underwent surgery and adjuvant therapy. Amongst those who underwent initial surgery, there was no association between CA 19-9 levels ≤800 (≤100, 101-300, 301-500, 501-800) with survival (stage I P=0.7592, stage II P=0.5088, stage III P=0.9037). Levels >800 were associated with significantly worse survival in all stages (P≤0.0001, all). Amongst those who received NAT, levels >800 were associated with worse survival in early (stage I P=0.0001), but not advanced stage disease (stage II P=0.1891, stage III P=0.9316). In multivariable analyses, levels >800 demonstrated a 3.29 greater hazard of mortality with respect to patients with levels ≤100 (P<0.0001). Pre-treatment CA 19-9 levels >800 appear to be associated with advanced disease, and are negatively associated with long-term survival. However, levels ≤800 had no significant association with survival. Although this study suggests an association, further study is needed to evaluate whether patients with CA 19-9 levels >800 benefit from NAT.

654P - Nomograms for pre- and post- operative prediction of long-term survival for patients of proximal gastric cancer: A large-scale, single-centre retrospective study

Background: The prognostic prediction for long-term survival for patients of proximal gastric cancer has not been well established. Methods: Between December 2006 and June 2013, we prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 746 patients with upper-third gastric cancer (GC). The data were split 75/25, with one group used for model development and the other group used for validation testing. COX regression was used to identify preoperative and postoperative risk factors associated with OS. Results: Among the 746 patients examined, the 1-, 3- year overall survival rate is respectively: 89.4%, 66.1%. The preoperative T staging (cT), preoperative N staging (cN), ASA score, preoperative CA199, preoperative tumor size and the weight loss of 3-6 months were incorporated into the preoperative nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction for the training set. In addition to these variables, LVI, postoperative tumor size, postoperative T stage, postoperative N stage, postoperative blood transfusion and postoperative complications were incorporated into the postoperative nomogram. All calibration curves for probability of OS fitted well. In the training cohort, the preoperative nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.751[95% confidence interval (CI) 0.732-0.770] in predicting OS and accurately stratified patients into 4 prognostic subgroups (5-year OS rates: 86.8%, 73.0%, 43.72% and 20.9%, P < 0.001). The postoperative nomogram had a C-index of 0.758 in predicting OS and accurately stratified patients into 4 prognostic subgroups (5-year OS rates: 82.6%, 74.3%, 45.9% and 18.9%, P < 0.001). Conclusions: The 2 nomograms showed accurate pre- and postoperative prediction for long-term survival for patients of proximal gastric cancer. Legal entity responsible for the study: Changming Huang Funding: None Disclosure: All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Prognostic impact of a ground glass opacity component in the clinical T classification of non–small cell lung cancer

ObjectiveTo determine whether solid component size and the presence of a ground glass opacity (GGO) component are independently associated with survival outcomes in patients with early-stage non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using the eighth edition Lung Cancer Stage Classification. MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated 1029 surgically resected early-stage NSCLCs. T categories were assigned based on solid component size using the eighth classification. All tumors were classified into 1 of 2 groups: the GGO group or the solid group. We evaluated the prognostic impact of several clinicopathological variables in clinical T classification using a Cox proportional hazard model. ResultsOn multivariable analysis, the presence of a GGO component (hazard ratio [HR], 0.314; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.181-0.529: P < .001) and solid component size (HR, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.006-1.036; P = .006) were identified as independently significant prognostic factors of overall survival. However, after accounting for the presence of a GGO component, neither maximum tumor size nor solid component size added to the prediction of long-term survival. Moreover, tumor size significantly affected survival outcome only in the solid group (HR, 1.020; 95% CI, 1.006-1.034; P = .004). Survival was excellent at ≥90% despite the revised T categories, provided that the tumor had a ground glass appearance. Meanwhile, tumor size significantly affected survival only in the solid group (P < .001). ConclusionsThe presence of a GGO component is a significant prognostic factor in early-stage NSCLC. External validation is required to assess whether it should be adopted as a novel factor in clinical T staging.

Predictors of Long-Term Survival after Renal Cancer Surgery

Renal cancer surgery can adversely impact long-term function and survival. We evaluated predictors of chronic kidney disease 5 years and nonrenal cancer mortality 10 years after renal cancer surgery. We analyzed the records of 4,283 patients who underwent renal cancer surgery from 1997 to 2008. Radical and partial nephrectomy were performed in 46% and 54% of patients, respectively. Cumulative probability ordinal modeling was used to predict chronic kidney disease status 5 years after surgery and multivariable logistic regression was used to predict nonrenal cancer mortality at 10 years. Relevant patient, tumor and functional covariates were incorporated, including the preoperative glomerular filtration rate (A), the new baseline glomerular filtration rate after surgery (B) and the glomerular filtration rate loss related to surgery (C), that is C = A - B. In contrast, partial or radical nephrectomy was not used in the models due to concerns about strong selection bias associated with the choice of procedure. Multivariable modeling established the preoperative glomerular filtration rate and the glomerular filtration rate loss related to surgery as the most important predictors of the development of chronic kidney disease (Spearman ρ = 0.78). Age, gender and race had secondary roles. Significant predictors of 10-year nonrenal cancer mortality were the preoperative glomerular filtration rate, the new baseline glomerular filtration rate, age, diabetes and heart disease (all p <0.05). Multivariable modeling established age and thepreoperative glomerular filtration rate as the most important predictors of10-year nonrenal cancer mortality (c-index 0.71) while the glomerular filtration rate loss related to surgery only changed absolute mortality estimates 1% to 3%. Glomerular filtration rate loss related to renal cancer surgery, whether due to partial or radical nephrectomy, influences the risk of chronic kidney disease but it may have less impact on survival. In contrast, age and the preoperative glomerular filtration rate, which reflects general health status, are more robust predictors of nonrenal cancer mortality, at least in patients with good preoperative function or mild chronic kidney disease.

Long-term postoperative survival prediction in patients with colorectal liver metastasis.

Numerous factors affect the prognosis of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) patients after hepatic resection. We investigated several factors related to overall survival in patients with CRLM to identify those most likely to benefit from hepatic resection, and produced a rational tumor biology score system. Three hundred CRLM patients treated with preoperative chemotherapy followed by hepatic resection between 2006 and 2016 were enrolled in our study. Clinicopathologic and long-term survival data were collected and assessed. Patient 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 92.7%, 58.3%, and 45.8%, respectively, while 1-, 3-, and 5-year disease-free survival rates were 44.7%, 28.6%, and 24.2%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed poor preoperative chemotherapy response, Fong clinical risk score > 2, and KRAS mutation to be independent prognostic indicators in CRLM patients. As part of a preoperative staging system in which one point was assigned for each factor, a total score (out of 3) was predictive of long-term survival following surgery. These factors facilitate personalized prognostic assessments in CRLM patients planning for resection.

Long-Term Forecasting the Survival in Liver Transplantation Using Multilayer Perceptron Networks

Medical prognosis has become an emerging area in health care. Several reliable prognostic models based on survival analysis procedures have been useful to a variety of domains, with different degree of success. An enhanced model with further advancement of computerized medical decision support systems help clinicians and doctors in building strategies for understanding surgical outcomes. A tenfold cross validation (CV) was applied in the medical input dataset which was obtained from United Network Organ Sharing database. In order to perform the dimensionality reduction of a huge database, principal component analysis (PCA) with ranking was done. The relation between attributes was recognized and proved using various association rule mining techniques, such as apriori, tertius, and treap algorithms. For confirming the results, we compared the rules generated by the association rules mining algorithm before and after PCA was also performed. We proposed an effective and accurate artificial neural network (ANN) model for the prediction of long-term survival of liver patients who undergo liver transplantation (LT). A tenfold CV was applied in the medical input dataset which was obtained from United Network Organ Sharing database. We made survival analysis of 13 years in the prediction of liver patients after LT. We trained the liver follow up data of 13 years separately using multilayer perceptron ANN model with proper selection of data attributes. Our model outperformed the existing models in terms of specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy. From the comparison of existing approaches, our model promised high accuracy in survival analysis after LT. We have also evaluated the survival probabilities of 13 years of follow up liver data and proved that our prediction model is suitable for long-term prognosis of survival of patients after LT.

Impact of Potentially Malignant Incidental Findings by Computed Tomographic Angiography on Long-Term Survival After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

Computed tomography angiography (CTA) in workup for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) frequently reveals potentially malignant incidental findings. Most incidental findings provoke discussions on their influence. We aimed to analyze if these findings were a predictor of long-term survival after TAVI. In a single-center retrospective analysis, all consecutive patients with pre-TAVI CTA were included (years 2009 to 2014). Patients were divided by presence or absence of incidental findings. We analyzed up to 5 years of all-cause, non-cardiovascular and cardiovascular mortality for all 553 patients who underwent TAVI; 113 had a potentially malignant incidental finding (20.4%). At 5 years, all-cause mortality risk was 64.5% in patients with versus 49.1% in patients without a finding (hazard ratio [HR] 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 2.31). After adjustment, the findings remained an independent predictor of all-cause (adjusted HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99) and non-cardiovascular mortality (adjusted subdistribution HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.20), but not of cardiovascular mortality. In conclusion, the presence of potentially malignant incidental findings on CTA is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause and noncardiovascular mortality but not of cardiovascular mortality.

Application of magnetic resonance in "non-operative treatment" strategy for rectal cancer

The primary curative modality for localized rectal cancer is total mesorectal excision (TME). Local control rate of rectal cancer has been improved after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and even pathological complete response (pCR) has been demonstrated in a significant minority. Patients who achieve pCR to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy have an excellent prognosis compared with those without pCR. If the patients with complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation can be demonstrated by clinical findings and medical imaging (cCR), a non-operative management (NOM) strategy may be pursued to preserve sphincter function and avoid complications induced by TME, which is a new tendency in the treatment of rectal cancer in recent years. Assisting diagnosis of cCR by iconography is the important element of NOM practice. Selected patients should be followed up with intensive surveillance. The curative strategy must be carried out once the recurrence is detected. Imaging modalities, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion-weighted MRI, or proton emission tomography (PET), are limited in their ability to distinguish patients who have achieved cCR. Up to now, MRI, DW-MRI and 18F-FDG PET/CT before neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy are not accurate enough to predict cCR and safely select patients for organ-sparing strategies. However, depth of tumor infiltration, extramural vascular invasion, circumferential resection margin, and location of rectal cancer can be demonstrated by high resolution MRI as independent risk factors in prediction of long-term survival of patients, which is a necessary manner of stratification treatment for rectal cancer. Therefore, patients who are defined as early rectal cancer with low risk factors are selected as candidates for NOM in recent studies in order to pursue low rate of local recurrence and distant metastasis. High resolution MRI assessment of tumor regression grade (mrTRG) can be used to assess response of rectal cancer to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, which is associated with tumor burden. mrTRG is an imaging marker that indicates the difference in survival between good and poor responders and provides an opportunity for the multidisciplinary team to offer additional treatment options before planning definitive surgery. Functional imaging and even molecular imaging are needed in the future to screen suitable rectal cancer patients who are easier to achieve cCR from neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and to evaluate the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.