Predictive Value Of Dynamic Changes Research Articles

A prognostic nomogram for patients with III-IV nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on dynamic changes in the inflammatory and nutrition index.

The purpose of the study was to explore the value of dynamic changes in inflammatory and nutritional index after comprehensive treatment in patients with stage III-IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A prognostic model was also established and validated for progression-free survival (PFS) of patients. We retrospectively selected 279 NPC patients with stage III-IVA. Their general clinical data and hematological index were collected and then calculated the changes during treatment. X-tile software was used to determine the optimal cut-off value. COX regression, Lasso method, and Boruta method were used to variable selection and model establishment. Using the bootstrap internal validation method, concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to evaluate the model. To test the prognostic value of the model, we have also evaluated the performance of the nomogram against a conventional tumor metastasis staging system (TNM). Multivariable COX regression analysis demonstrated that clinical staging, delta lymphocyte, delta monocyte, delta albumin, delta platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and delta systemic immune inflammation index were related to the PFS of NPC patients. The C-index of the model was 0.712, and the calibration curve indicated that the model had good consistency. The C-index of the TNM staging system was 0.597, which was considerably lower compared to our model (P = 0.015). We demonstrated the predictive value of dynamic changes in inflammatory and nutritional indices for the prognosis of NPC by successfully establishing and validating a prognostic model for predicting 1- and 3-year PFS after comprehensive treatment in patients with stage III-IVA NPC.

Predictive value of early dynamic changes of NLR and PLR for the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitor in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

We analyzed the predictive value of dynamic changes in neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in recurrent and/or metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). A total of 104 patients with R/M HNSCC treated with ICIs during August 2018 to June 2023 were included. Dynamic changes were defined as the difference between NLR and PLR on day 1 of cycles 1 and 2. Patients with increased NLR or PLR had an independently increased risk of disease progression at the first response evaluation (odds ratio [OR] 5.26, P = .005; OR 2.29, P = .042), disease progression (hazard ratio [HR] 2.29, P = .003; HR 1.68, P = .027), and death (HR 1.86, P = .027; HR 1.68, P = .037). Furthermore, patients with a decrease in NLR showed longer progression-free survival, with HRs of 0.36 (P < .001) for those with low pre-ICI NLR and 0.52 (P = .041) for those with high pre-ICI NLR, compared to those with increased NLR. Increased NLR or PLR was associated with adverse outcomes after ICI treatment in patients with R/M HNSCC.

The predictive value of dynamic changes of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) combined with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Objective: To determine the predictive value of dynamic changes of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) combined with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Methods: Patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure who were hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2010 to July 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. According to the clinical outcomes of patients within 30 days of admission, they were divided into the survival group and the death group. The dynamic changes in NLR and initial values on day 3, 5, 8, and 12 in two groups were analyzed for the diagnostic value of 30-day prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Logistic regression analysis and machine learning XGBoost algorithm were used to evaluate the risk factors influencing the prognosis of patients at 30 days. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic value of NLR and initial value change combined with MELD score on day 12 of admission in patients with chronic acute hepatitis B liver failure. Results: A total of 243 patients were enrolled in the study, including 145 patients in the survival group [115 males, 30 females, aged 25-74 (47±11)] and 98 patients in the death group [80 males, 18 females, aged 22-80 (49±13) ]. The median initial NLR of survival group and death group were 3.5 (2.1, 5.3) and 4.9 (2.9, 8.3), respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (P=0.003). The variation of NLR from the initial value on day 3, 5, 8, and 12 in the survival group [1.6 (0, 4.3), 1.9 (-0.2, 4.1), 2.0 (-0.1, 4.3) and 2.9 (0.3, 7.0), respectively] were lower than that in the death group [3.2 (0.9, 7.5), 5.1 (1.8, 7.6), 5.8 (2.0, 10.6) and 9.6 (3.5, 16.4), respectively] (all P<0.001). Logistic regression multivariate analysis showed that the changes in NLR on the 12th day and initial value (OR=1.07,95%CI:1.01-1.14, P=0.014), the changes in NLR on the 3rd day and initial value (OR=2.71, 95%CI: 1.32-5.55, P=0.007), the initial value of NLR (OR=1.18,95%CI:1.01-1.37,P=0.035) and fibrinogen (OR=0.21,95%CI:0.05-0.96,P=0.044) were related factors for death within 30 days. Machine learning XGBoost algorithm showed that the weight of the change between the NLR on the 12th day and the initial value was the highest. The area under the ROC curve of the combined MELD score was 0.812 (95%CI: 0.728-0.895), the specificity was 67.78%, and the sensitivity was 82.35%. Conclusion: Dynamic change of NLR combined with MELD score has high predictive value for the short-term prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

Prognostic value of dynamic changes of pre- and post-operative tumor markers in colorectal cancer.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis assessment is vital for personalized treatment plans. This study investigates the prognostic value of dynamic changes of tumor markers CEA, CA19-9, CA125, and AFP before and after surgery and constructs prediction models based on these indicators. A retrospective clinical study of 2599 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery was conducted. Patients were randomly divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) datasets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified independent prognostic factors, and nomograms were constructed. A total of 2599 CRC patients were included in the study. Patients were divided into training (70%, n = 1819) and validation (30%, n = 780) sets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified age, total number of resected lymph nodes, T stage, N stage, the preoperative and postoperative changes in the levels of CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 as independent prognostic factors. When their postoperative levels are normal, patients with elevated preoperative levels have significantly worse overall survival. However, when the postoperative levels of CEA/CA19-9/CA125 are elevated, whether their preoperative levels are elevated or not has no significance for prognosis. Two nomogram models were developed, and Model I, which included CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 groups, demonstrated the best performance in both training and validation sets. This study highlights the significant predictive value of dynamic changes in tumor markers CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 before and after CRC surgery. Incorporating these markers into a nomogram prediction model improves prognostic accuracy, enabling clinicians to better assess patients' conditions and develop personalized treatment plans.

Predictive value of dynamic changes in ctDNA and baseline biomarkers with neoadjuvant atezolizumab in operable urothelial carcinoma in the ABACUS trial.

534 Background: Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) is being explored in the neoadjuvant setting in multiple prospective trials. Dynamic changes may be a surrogate marker of pathological complete response. ABACUS was a multi-centre, single-arm phase II trial investigating two cycles of atezolizumab before cystectomy in patients with muscle-invasive urothelial cancer who were ineligible for or refused neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy (NCT02662309). Results of primary and secondary endpoints have been previously published. Here we perform exploratory biomarker analysis using different definitions of ctDNA response and assess correlation with tissue response at time of cystectomy in the ABACUS trial. We also assess how these definitions of response correlate with baseline biomarker expression. Methods: Patients with baseline PDL-1, CD8, TMB and sequential ctDNA measurements (baseline and at cystectomy) were included. ctDNA analysis was performed using the Signatera assay, PD-L1 positivity was defined as ≥5% of immune cell staining, TMB was assessed using the FoundationOne CDx assay and CD8 measurement was performed via immunohistochemistry analyses. Two definitions of ctDNA response were used—ctDNA clearance and a 50% reduction (or greater) in ctDNA variant allele frequency (VAF). Results were correlated with pathological complete response (pCR) rate at time of cystectomy and relapse-free survival. Results: The 2-yr DFS and OS rates in ABACUS were 68% and 77%, respectively (N=95). 40 patients had sequential DNA analysis. 43% (17/40) had pathological complete response and 20% (8/40) experienced relapse. 63% (25/40) patients were ctDNA+ at baseline, with 40% (10/25) having ctDNA response of 50% VAF reduction and 8% (3/40) achieving ctDNA clearance. 30% (3/10) of patients who had VAF reduction experienced relapse and 40% (4/10) achieved pCR. All patients with ctDNA clearance achieved pCR none relapsed. There was no association between VAF reduction of 50% and tissue response (pCR) (p=0.24). Additional analysis showed no association between a ctDNA reduction of 75% (rather than 50%) and pCR (p=0.24). Baseline PDL-1, TMB and not predictive of pathological complete response (p=0.18, p=0.77, p=0.10, respectively) or ctDNA response (p=0.54, p=0.77, p=0.74) to neoadjuvant atezolizumab. There was no difference in relapse rates between ctDNA/PD-L1+ve vs ctDNA+ve/PD-L1-ve patients (16% vs 16%, respectively). Conclusions: ctDNA clearance is rare but appears more accurate than 50% reduction in VAF to predict response/relapse. This is relevant for ongoing neoadjuvant trials planning to use this as an endpoint. Combining immune tissue based biomarkers with ctDNA does not appear to improve biomarker accuracy.

Predictive value of dynamic changes in peripheral blood inflammation and blood lipid-related indices for the lung cancer treatment efficacy.

To investigate the dynamics of inflammation and lipid-related indicators in lung cancer patients and their impact on treatment efficacy. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 133 lung cancer patients who seek for primary treatment at Wujin Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University from January 2019 to August 2022. The inflammation and blood lipid-related indicators were collected 1 week before treatment and after 2 cycles of treatment. We compared the changes in these indicators among patients with different treatment methods and outcomes. The diagnostic value of the dynamic changes in each index for disease progression was calculated using the ROC curve. The risk factors influencing disease development were identified using multifactorial logistic regression analysis. After 2 cycles of treatment, the white blood cell count (WBC, P<0.001), neutrophil count (NC, P<0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, P<0.001) in the disease progression (PD) group were significantly increased, triglyceride (TG, P=0.023), apolipoprotein A1 (APO-A1, P=0.009) was significantly decreased. The results showed that ∆NC had the highest sensitivity (88.24%) in predicting disease progression, and ∆WBC had the best specificity (77.78%). Multivariate regression analysis showed that ΔWBC (P<0.001), ΔTG (P=0.041), and treatment method (P=0.010) were independent risk factors for disease progression (PD). The changes of WBC and TG before and after treatment are promising indicators for predicting the progression of lung cancer and may offer a new direction for lung cancer treatment.

Post-hepatoportoenterostomy Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Elastography to Predict Two-year Outcome of Biliary Atresia.

Early identification of prognostic factors to predict transplant/death outcome of biliary atresia (BA) is challenging. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal changes and predictive value of dynamic changes in acoustic radiation force impulse elastography with shear wave speed (SWS) quantification and other parameters within three months after hepatoportoenterostomy (HPE) for 2-year BA outcomes. Seventy-four patients who underwent HPE between July 2016 and June 2019 were prospectively enrolled. Outcomes were classified into native liver survival and transplant/death groups. Acoustic radiation force impulse elastography was performed sequentially at 3 months intervals post-HPE. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the superior SWS values and other predictors of liver transplantation or death. Among patients 2 years of age, 36 survived with a native liver, nine died, and 29 underwent liver transplantation. The trend in SWS levels in the transplant/death group was significantly different from that in the native liver survival group. ΔSWS at 1-3 months post-HPE and total bilirubin at 1 month post-HPE were selected as superior predictors of liver transplantation or death using multivariate Cox regression models: hazard ratio (HR)=1.927; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.475-2.661; p<0.001 and HR=1.010; 95% CI: 1.003-1.017; p=0.007, respectively. The combination of the selected ΔSWS and total bilirubin had good predictive power, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.89, specificity 94.44% and sensitivity 73.68%. Our results suggest that early postoperative bilirubin levels and SWS changes were reliable predictors of 2-year BA outcomes.

EP08.02-091 Disease Monitoring of EGFR-mutated NSCLC Patients Treated with TKIs via EGFR Status in Circulating ctDNA

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring proves to be a promising approach to assess response and predict survival in epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). However, whether the dynamic changes in ctDNA EGFR mutation status have the same predictive value as ctDNA remains unknown. This study aims to explore the predictive value of dynamic changes in both ctDNA and ctDNA EGFR status.

Disease monitoring of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors via EGFR status in circulating tumor DNA.

ObjectiveCirculating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring proves to be a promising approach to assess response and predict survival in epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)‐mutated non‐small‐cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). However, whether the dynamic changes in ctDNA EGFR mutation status have the same predictive value as ctDNA remains unknown. This study aims to explore the predictive value of dynamic changes in both ctDNA and ctDNA EGFR status.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed using 91 ctDNA samples from a cohort of 28 patients who were diagnosed with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC and treated with EGFR‐TKIs, including 14 patients treated with first‐/second‐generation TKIs and 14 treated with osimertinib. Blood samples at baseline (BL), within 4 weeks after TKI initiation (Week4), within 12 weeks before progression (pre‐PD), and at progression were collected. The relationship alternatives in ctDNA status, ctDNA EGFR status and response to EGFR‐TKIs as well as progression‐free survival (PFS) were analyzed.ResultsWe categorized 20 BL‐ctDNA positive patients with available Week4‐ctDNA into two groups: ctDNA‐clearance (N = 7, 35%) and ctDNA‐non‐clearance (N = 13, 65%). The ctDNA‐clearance group had better PFS than the ctDNA‐non‐clearance group (ctDNA‐clearance vs. ctDNA‐non‐clearance, p = 0.091, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.15–1.19). According to Week4‐EGFR status, we observed that PFS was significantly longer in EGFR‐clearance patients than EGFR‐non‐clearance groups, (p = 0.011, HR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.08–0.72). We then categorized patients into three subgroups according to Week4‐ctDNA and Week4‐EGFR status: non‐clearance (N = 9), only‐EGFR‐clearance (concomitant alterations non‐clearance) (N = 4), and all‐clearance (N = 7). The nonclearance group had a significantly worse PFS than the all‐clearance group (median PFS = 5.07 vs. 11.40 months, p = 0.029, HR = 3.45, 95% CI = 1.05–11.49). The only‐EGFR‐clearance group had a similar PFS to the all‐clearance group (p = 0.607), which was longer than that of the non‐clearance group (median PFS = 9.20 vs. 5.07 months, p = 0.060, HR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.05–1.18). We found that the all‐clearance group had a similar objective response rate (ORR) to the only‐EGFR‐clearance group (p = 1.000) and a higher ORR than the non‐clearance group (p = 0.012).ConclusionMonitoring of EGFR clearance in ctDNA is promising and cost‐effective in assessing response and predicting survival in EGFR‐mutated NSCLC patients treated with EGFR‐TKIs, with similar predictive value to ctDNA surveillance.

The predictive value of dynamic changes of coagulation function for the occurrence and progression of isolated distal deep vein thrombosis of lower limbs in patients with acute brain injury

To analyze risk factors for the occurrence and progression of isolated distal deep vein thrombosis (IDDVT) of lower limbs, and to explore the predictive value of dynamic changes of coagulation index D-dimer on the occurrence and progression of IDDVT in acute brain injury (ABI) patients during perioperative period. A retrospective case-control study was conducted. Perioperative ABI patients admitted to department of neurocritical care unit (NCCU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China from September 2019 to May 2020 were enrolled. Patients' baseline characteristics, disease characteristics, treatment approaches, outcomes and coagulation function index at 1, 2-4, 5-7 and > 7 days post operation were analyzed between patients with IDDVT and patients with progressive IDDVT. Risk factors for IDDVT occurrence and progression were identified by multivariate Logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) were drawn to assess the predictive value of coagulation indexes for IDDVT occurrence and progression. A total of 164 ABI patients were enrolled. Most of the patients were elderly [age was 60 (51, 69) years], male [99 cases (60.4%)], and severe cases [Glasgow coma score (GCS) at admission was 6 (5, 8)]. The rates of IDDVT occurrence and progression were 61.6% (101 cases) and 16.8% (17 cases), respectively, the rate of proximal deep venous thrombosis (DVT) was 12.8% (21 cases). Compared with the IDDVT group (101 patients), patients without IDDVT group were younger (years: 55±13 vs. 62±13), length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay were shorter (days: 12±6 vs. 15±7), body mass index (BMI) and GCS at admission were higher [59 patients, BMI (kg/m2): 23±5 vs. 19±8, GCS scores: 7±2 vs. 6±2], the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Compared with patients with IDDVT progression group, male patients were fewer [61.9% (52/84) vs. 88.2% (15/17)], the proportion of transfusion of red blood cell and anticoagulant therapy were lower [8.3% (7/84) vs. 29.4% (5/17) and 47.6% (40/84) vs. 94.1% (16/17)], the proportion of cerebral herniation was higher [42.9% (38/84) vs. 11.8% (2/17)] in patients without IDDVT progressive group. All of the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). D-dimer were increased in two groups of whether IDDVT occurrence or not over time. D-dimer peaked on 5-7 days after surgery in IDDVT occurrence group, and then decreased. D-dimer peaked at > 7 days after surgery in patients without IDDVT. With time, D-dimer were increased in groups of whether IDDVT progression or not, both peaked at 5-7 days postoperation, and then decreased. Compared with non-IDDVTgroup, D-dimer was significantly increased in IDDVT group from 2-4 days after surgery [mg/L: 4.1 (2.3, 8.0) vs. 2.4 (1.7, 3.4), P < 0.05], and lasted until 5-7 days [mg/L: 5.5 (3.3, 11.4) vs. 3.9 (2.6, 5.8), P < 0.05]. Compared with IDDVT group, D-dimer was significantly increased in IDDVT progressive group from 2-4 days [mg/L: 11.2 (4.7, 20.0) vs. 3.7 (2.1, 6.8), P < 0.05], and lasted until 7 days [mg/L: 11.0 (3.0, 18.9) vs. 4.1 (2.6, 6.5), P < 0.05]. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age > 60 years [odds ratio (OR) = 3.43, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.69-6.96, P = 0.001], GCS score at admission > 8 (OR = 0.35, 95%CI was 0.17-0.76, P = 0.008), length of ICU stay > 13 days (OR = 2.25, 95%CI was 1.08-4.70, P = 0.031) were risk factors for IDDVT. Gender (OR = 0.19, 95%CI was 0.02-0.71, P = 0.019), transfusion of red blood cell (OR = 6.50, 95%CI was 1.33-31.94, P = 0.021), cerebral herniation (OR = 0.18, 95%CI was 0.37-0.90, P = 0.036) were risk factors for IDDVT profression. ROC curve analysis showed that age and D-dimer at 5-7 days were predicators of IDDVT [the area under curve ROC (AUC) were 0.68 and 0.72, 95%CI were 0.60-0.75 and 0.64-0.80, both P value were 0.000 1]. When the cut-off value of age was 60 years old and the D-dimer was 5.4 mg/L, the sensitivity were 60.6% and 54.4%, specificity were 71.2% and 80.9%, respectively, positive predictive value were 78.7%, 84.5%, negative predictive value were 51.2%, 48.1%, respectively. The elevation of D-dimer to 3.9 times at days 5-7 compared with day 1 of NCCU stay was a predicator of IDDVT progression (AUC = 0.81, 95%CI was 0.71-0.88, P = 0.000 1). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 76.5%, 74.6%, 41.9% and 93.0%, respectively. IDDVT occurrence and progressiveare common in severe ABI patients during perioperative period. The dynamic change of D-dimer, especially at days 5-7, is a valuable predictor of IDDVT progressionin ABI patients, which is helpful for guiding implementation of deep vein ultrasound of lower limb.

Dynamic changes in circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes for predicting treatment response to PD-1 blockade in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer.

The predictive value of immune monitoring with circulating CD8+ T lymphocytes for treatment response to programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) inhibitors has not been explored in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), prompting us to investigate whether dynamic changes in PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes have predictive value for durable clinical benefit (DCB) and survival after PD-1 blockade. Patients with recurrent and/or metastatic NSCLC treated with PD-1 inhibitors were enrolled (discovery cohort; n=94). Peripheral blood was obtained immediately before and after one cycle of treatment with PD-1 blockade. Phenotyping of circulating CD8+ T lymphocytes was conducted using multi-colour flow cytometry. Predictive values of dynamic changes in circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes during the first cycle were validated in an independent cohort (validation cohort; n=54) of a prospective trial with a PD-1 inhibitor (NCT03486119). Circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes were enriched with effector/memory populations with elevated expression of activation- and exhaustion-related markers. Reduction in the frequency of PD-1+ cells among CD8+ T lymphocytes after one cycle of treatment was associated with a higher probability of DCB and superior survival outcomes in the discovery cohort. Similar results were obtained in the analysis of tumour antigen NY-ESO-1-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes and the validation cohort. Mechanistically, PD-1 molecule expression on CD8+ T lymphocytes suppresses the effector functions of tumour antigen-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes. Dynamic changes in circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes predict clinical, and survival benefit from PD-1 blockade treatment in NSCLC, providing a useful tool to identify patient subgroups who will optimally benefit from PD-1 inhibitors.

Clinical study of D-lactate and intestinal fatty acid binding protein in evaluating disease severity and prognosis of ICU patients: secondary analysis of a prospective, multicenter clinical study

To analyze the relationship between D-lactate, intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) and the severity as well as the prognosis of patients in intensive care unit (ICU). Using a retrospective approach, the data derived from a prospective, randomized, single-blind, multicenter clinical study published earlier by our group were further analyzed to evaluate the effect of fat-modified enteral nutrition (EN) suspension on the intestinal barrier in ICU patients. In this study, a total of 141 patients were recruited from 7 ICUs in South China, and 15 healthy volunteers were included as healthy control group. Clinical data of patients were collected, including gender, age, disease severity related indicators such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), C-reactive protein (CRP) and initial ICU diagnosis, as well as prognostic indicators such as length of stay in ICU, length of stay in hospital and prognosis of patients at 28 days. To compare the difference of serum D-lactate and I-FABP between ICU patients and healthy control group on day 0 (the day before EN reached 500 mL) and day 5 (EN ≥ 2 092 kJ/d for 5 days). According to the hemodynamic and/or mechanical ventilation status on day 5 (compared with day 0), 141 patients were divided into the improvement group (101 cases) and the non-improvement group (40 cases), and the changes of D-lactate and I-FABP in the two groups were observed. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between serum D-lactate, I-FABP and the severity of the disease, as well as the predictive value of dynamic changes of D-lactate and I-FABP on the prognosis of 28 days. Compared with the healthy volunteers, the serum D-lactate and I-FABP levels of ICU patients on day 0 were significantly increased [D-lactate (mg/L): 10.82 (3.31, 25.48) vs. 6.63 (1.54, 17.70), I-FABP (ng/L): 519.60 (159.06, 1 362.14) vs. 84.40 (30.78, 108.57), both P < 0.01], and D-lactate and I-FABP on day 5 were both decreased compared with the levels on day 0, but still higher than the healthy volunteers. I-FABP in the improvement group was significantly lower than that in the non-improvement group on day 0, and there was no significant difference in D-lactate levels between the two groups, D-lactate and I-FABP in both groups were significantly lower on day 5 than those on day 0, and D-lactate and I-FABP in the improvement group on day 5 were significantly lower than those in the non-improvement group [D-lactate (mg/L): 7.61 (1.71, 27.22) vs. 9.38 (2.09, 20.56), I-FABP (ng/L): 378.65 (152.56, 864.62) vs. 521.21 (205.93, 1 413.11), all P < 0.05]. Correlation analysis showed that D-lactate was significantly positively correlated with APACHE II score and SOFA score on day 0 and day 5 (R12 = 0.367, P < 0.001; R22 = 0.240, P = 0.012); I-FABP was significantly positively correlated with APACHE II score on day 0 (R2 = 0.264, P = 0.004); D-lactate on day 5 and I-FABP on day 0 and day 5 were significantly negatively correlated with prognosis on day 28 (R12 = -0.203, P = 0.022; R22 = -0.208, P = 0.023; R32 = -0.211, P = 0.021). The area under curve (AUC) analysis showed that D-lactate on day 5 and I-FABP on day 0 and day 5 had independent predictive value for 28-day prognosis, with AUC of 0.634, 0.638 and 0.652, P values of 0.023, 0.024 and 0.017, 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of 0.533-0.734, 0.523-0.754 and 0.525-0.778, respectively. When the cut-off values were 7.71 mg/L, 593.55 ng/L and 468.10 ng/L, the sensitivity were 51.5%, 68.5% and 75.3%, and the specificity were 91.0%, 60.0% and 60.0%, respectively. Serum D-lactate and I-FABP were increased significantly and decreased with the improvement of the condition, and these two molecular biomarkers have certain value in predicting the prognosis of ICU patients.

Dynamic changes in circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes for predicting treatment response to PD-1 blockade in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

e21690 Background: The predictive value of dynamic changes in the expression of programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) among circulating CD8+ T lymphocytes for treatment response to PD-1 inhibitors has not been explored in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to investigate whether dynamic changes in PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes have predictive value with respect to durable clinical benefit (DCB) and survival after PD-1 blockade. Methods: Patients with recurrent and/or metastatic NSCLC treated with PD-1 inhibitors were enrolled between March 2016 and August 2018 (discovery cohort; n = 94). Peripheral blood was obtained immediately before and after one cycle of treatment with PD-1 blockade. Phenotyping of circulating CD8+ T lymphocytes was conducted using multi-color flow cytometry. Predictive values of dynamic changes in circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes during the first cycle were validated in an independent cohort (validation cohort; n = 54) of a prospective trial with PD-1 inhibitor (NCT03486119). Results: Circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes were enriched with effector/memory populations with elevated expression of activation- and exhaustion-related markers. Reduction in the frequency of PD-1+ cells among CD8+ T lymphocytes after one cycle of treatment was associated with a higher probability of DCB and superior survival outcomes in the discovery cohort. Similar results were obtained in analysis of tumor antigen NY-ESO-1-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes and in the validation cohort. Conclusions: Dynamic changes in circulating PD-1+CD8+ T lymphocytes predict clinical and survival benefit from PD-1 blockade treatment in NSCLC. Thus, tracking these changes may be useful for identifying NSCLC patients who will optimally benefit from the treatment.

The predictive value of dynamic changes of serum thymosin b4 in liver failure patients

Not Abstract.

Importance of dynamic dyssynchrony in the occurrence of hypertensive heart failure with normal ejection fraction

The impact of haemodynamic stress on left ventricular (LV) dyssynchrony in heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) remains unknown. We sought to evaluate the relationship and predictive value of dynamic changes of LV dyssynchrony on hypertensive HFNEF. A total of 131 subjects including 47 hypertensive HFNEF patients, 34 hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) without HFNEF, and 50 normal controls were studied by dobutamine stress echocardiography with tissue Doppler imaging. Systolic and diastolic dyssynchrony were assessed using the LV six-basal-six-mid-segment model and cut-off values were derived from normal controls. The mean basal segments longitudinal systolic (mean Sm) and early diastolic (mean Em) velocities were measured. In normal controls, systolic and diastolic dyssynchrony did not develop during stress. The prevalence of resting systolic (36.2% vs. 38.2%, P = 0.85) and diastolic (34.0% vs. 29.4%, P = 0.66) dyssynchrony was similar in HFNEF and LVH groups. During stress, the prevalence of systolic and diastolic dyssynchrony increased dramatically to 85.1% and 87.2%, respectively, in HFNEF group, but only 52.9% and 58.8% in LVH group (P < 0.005). In HFNEF group, stress-induced increase in mean Sm was significantly blunted (2.8 ± 2.0 vs. 4.2 ± 2.4 cm/s, P = 0.004), and the increase was abolished for mean Em (-0.3 ± 2.5 vs. 2.4 ± 3.4 cm/s, P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, stress-induced changes in mean Em (OR = 0.69, P = 0.004) and mean Sm (OR = 0.56, P = 0.004), and diastolic (OR = 4.6, P = 0.005) and systolic dyssynchrony during stress (OR = 4.3, P = 0.038) were independent determinants for occurrence of HFNEF. Dynamic dyssynchrony during stress and impaired myocardial longitudinal function reserve are characteristics of HFNEF.