The predictive value of dynamic changes of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) combined with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Abstract

Objective: To determine the predictive value of dynamic changes of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) combined with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Methods: Patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure who were hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2010 to July 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. According to the clinical outcomes of patients within 30 days of admission, they were divided into the survival group and the death group. The dynamic changes in NLR and initial values on day 3, 5, 8, and 12 in two groups were analyzed for the diagnostic value of 30-day prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Logistic regression analysis and machine learning XGBoost algorithm were used to evaluate the risk factors influencing the prognosis of patients at 30 days. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic value of NLR and initial value change combined with MELD score on day 12 of admission in patients with chronic acute hepatitis B liver failure. Results: A total of 243 patients were enrolled in the study, including 145 patients in the survival group [115 males, 30 females, aged 25-74 (47±11)] and 98 patients in the death group [80 males, 18 females, aged 22-80 (49±13) ]. The median initial NLR of survival group and death group were 3.5 (2.1, 5.3) and 4.9 (2.9, 8.3), respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (P=0.003). The variation of NLR from the initial value on day 3, 5, 8, and 12 in the survival group [1.6 (0, 4.3), 1.9 (-0.2, 4.1), 2.0 (-0.1, 4.3) and 2.9 (0.3, 7.0), respectively] were lower than that in the death group [3.2 (0.9, 7.5), 5.1 (1.8, 7.6), 5.8 (2.0, 10.6) and 9.6 (3.5, 16.4), respectively] (all P<0.001). Logistic regression multivariate analysis showed that the changes in NLR on the 12th day and initial value (OR=1.07,95%CI:1.01-1.14, P=0.014), the changes in NLR on the 3rd day and initial value (OR=2.71, 95%CI: 1.32-5.55, P=0.007), the initial value of NLR (OR=1.18,95%CI:1.01-1.37,P=0.035) and fibrinogen (OR=0.21,95%CI:0.05-0.96,P=0.044) were related factors for death within 30 days. Machine learning XGBoost algorithm showed that the weight of the change between the NLR on the 12th day and the initial value was the highest. The area under the ROC curve of the combined MELD score was 0.812 (95%CI: 0.728-0.895), the specificity was 67.78%, and the sensitivity was 82.35%. Conclusion: Dynamic change of NLR combined with MELD score has high predictive value for the short-term prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.