Prediction Of Test Results Research Articles

Energy Consumption Forecasting for University Sector Buildings

Reliable energy forecasting helps managers to prepare future budgets for their buildings. Therefore, a simple, easier, less time consuming and reliable forecasting model which could be used for different types of buildings is desired. In this paper, we have presented a forecasting model based on five years of real data sets for one dependent variable (the daily electricity consumption) and six explanatory variables (ambient temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, weekday index and building type). A single mathematical equation for forecasting daily electricity usage of university buildings has been developed using the Multiple Regression (MR) technique. Data of two such buildings, located at the Southwark Campus of London South Bank University in London, have been used for this study. The predicted test results of MR model are examined and judged against real electricity consumption data of both buildings for year 2011. The results demonstrate that out of six explanatory variables, three variables; surrounding temperature, weekday index and building type have significant influence on buildings energy consumption. The results of this model are associated with a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 12% for the administrative building and 13% for the academic building. Finally, some limitations of this study have also been discussed.

Patients' Perceptions of Their Relatives' Risk of Developing Rheumatoid Arthritis and of the Potential for Risk Communication, Prediction, and Modulation.

To understand the perspectives of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) about the risk of their relatives developing RA in the future, and about communicating with their relatives concerning risk and its modulation. Twenty-one RA patients took part in semistructured interviews. Participants reported willingness to communicate with relatives about their risk of developing RA, but described choosing which relatives to communicate with, on the basis of the relatives' perceived receptivity to such risk information. Participants described the potential for risk information to cause negative emotions. Some participants did not consider RA to be hereditable, and few reported smoking as a risk factor. Patients described a lack of public awareness about the causes of RA and the negative impact that RA has on the quality of life. Awareness of this negative impact was identified as an important driver for predictive and preventive strategies. Participants held positive perceptions of predictive testing for RA, though the results of predictive tests were conceptualized as having a high degree of accuracy. Negative views of predictive testing were associated with an appreciation of the probabilistic nature of risk information. Participants felt that their relatives would prefer lifestyle modification over medication as a risk reduction strategy. Information about risk factors for RA, and the potential impact of RA on the quality of life, is needed to support family communication about RA risk. Management of expectations is needed in relation to the probabilistic nature of risk information, and appropriate support should be provided for negative psychological outcomes.

Prediction models of compressive strength and UPV of recycled material cement mortar

With the rising global environmental awareness on energy saving and carbon reduction, as well as the environmental transition and natural disasters resulted from the greenhouse effect, waste resources should be efficiently used to save environmental space and achieve environmental protection principle of "sustainable development and recycling". This study used recycled cement mortar and adopted the volumetric method for experimental design, which replaced cement (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%) with recycled materials (fly ash, slag, glass powder) to test compressive strength and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV). The hyperbolic function for nonlinear multivariate regression analysis was used to build prediction models, in order to study the effect of different recycled material addition levels (the function of <TEX>$R_m$</TEX>(F, S, G) was used and be a representative of the content of recycled materials, such as fly ash, slag and glass) on the compressive strength and UPV of cement mortar. The calculated results are in accordance with laboratory-measured data, which are the mortar compressive strength and UPV of various mix proportions. From the comparison between the prediction analysis values and test results, the coefficient of determination <TEX>$R^2$</TEX> and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) value of compressive strength are 0.970-0.988 and 5.57-8.84%, respectively. Furthermore, the <TEX>$R^2$</TEX> and MAPE values for UPV are 0.960-0.987 and 1.52-1.74%, respectively. All of the <TEX>$R^2$</TEX> and MAPE values are closely to 1.0 and less than 10%, respectively. Thus, the prediction models established in this study have excellent predictive ability of compressive strength and UPV for recycled materials applied in cement mortar.

The Impact of Receiving Predictive Genetic Information about Lynch Syndrome on Individual Colonoscopy and Smoking Behaviors.

This study investigated whether receiving the results of predictive genetic testing for Lynch syndrome, indicating the presence or absence of an inherited predisposition to various cancers, including colorectal cancer, was associated with change in individual colonoscopy and smoking behaviors, which could prevent colorectal cancer. The study population included individuals with no previous diagnosis of colorectal cancer, whose families had already identified deleterious mutations in the mismatch repair or EPCAM genes. Hypotheses were generated from a simple health economics model and tested against individual-level panel data from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. The empirical analysis revealed evidence consistent with some of the hypotheses, with a higher likelihood of undergoing colonoscopy in those who discovered their genetic predisposition to colorectal cancer and a lower likelihood of quitting smoking in those who discovered their lack thereof. Predictive genetic information about Lynch syndrome was associated with change in individual colonoscopy and smoking behaviors but not necessarily in ways to improve population health. The study findings suggest that the impact of personalized medicine on disease prevention is intricate, warranting further analyses to determine the net benefits and costs. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(11); 1524-33. ©2016 AACR.

Experimental impact of magnet and regenerator design on the refrigeration performance of first-order magnetocaloric materials

The first-order magnetic transition material LaFeSiMn(H) is used to create multi-stage regenerators to investigate the importance of regenerator and magnet design on magnetocaloric refrigeration performance. Aspect ratio, magnetic field strength, particle size, and staging are varied while keeping overall span and material mass at a constant level. Tests carried out on these regenerators show that the regenerator and magnetic systems play a key role in determining the performance of a magnetocaloric refrigerator. A one-dimensional numerical machine model using both measured material data and data reconstructed from a mathematical material model is used to predict test results. The machine model and material model make predictions with less than 5% average error over the range of experimental parameters.

Decision-Making Responsibility: Development and Initial Validation of a New Measure for Low-Income, Nonresident Fathers

Most measures of father involvement with children have been developed for use with middle-class fathers who reside with their children. The current study documents the development and initial validation of a new measure of decision-making responsibility for low-income fathers with a nonresident child. Focus groups conducted with 71 fathers revealed two dimensions of decision-making responsibility: making decisions with respect to direct care of the child and making decisions with respect to resources. Surveys were then collected from 542 nonresident fathers to validate a set of items measuring these two dimensions. The results of exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis supported these factors. However, the results of convergent and predictive validity tests suggest that the resources factor does not add additional explanatory power above its association with the care factor. We suggest using only the seven care decision-making items in future studies.

Subtle Psychosocial Sequelae of Genetic Test Results

Research using standard psychological measures has not revealed a dramatic psychological reaction to receipt of predictive genetic test results. Qualitative research, however, indicates that there are subtle psychosocial sequelae of receiving such results that should be considered by individuals and their clinicians prior to testing. Among these more subtle, but burdensome sequelae of testing are (i) changed social relationships (including relationships with clinicians), (ii) the impact of test results on important life decisions (e.g., career and reproductive choices), and (iii) altered self-concept among those tested. This review examines these more subtle sequelae, as well as the inadequacy of existing quantitative measures for assessing their impact, and discusses the relevance of such sequelae for decision-making about predictive genetic testing.

Evidence‐based genetic counselling implications for Huntington disease intermediate allele predictive test results

Intermediate alleles (IAs) for Huntington disease (HD) contain 27-35 CAG repeats, a range that falls just below the disease threshold of 36 repeats. While there is no firm evidence that IAs confer the HD phenotype, they are prone to germline CAG repeat instability, particularly repeat expansion when paternally transmitted. Consequently, offspring may inherit a new mutation and develop the disease later in life. Over the last 5 years there has been a renewed interest in IAs. This article provides an overview of the latest research on IAs, including their clinical implications, frequency, haplotype, and likelihood of CAG repeat expansion, as well as patient understanding and current genetic counselling practices. The implications of this growing evidence base for clinical practice are also highlighted. These evidence-based genetic counselling implications may help ensure individuals with an IA predictive test result receive appropriate support, education, and counselling.

CAG size-specific risk estimates for intermediate allele repeat instability in Huntington disease

IntroductionNew mutations for Huntington disease (HD) occur due to CAG repeat instability of intermediate alleles (IA). IAs have between 27 and 35 CAG repeats, a range just below the disease...

Fracture Mechanics-Based Fatigue Behavior of Jointed Concrete Pavement

Concrete experiences thermal and hygral deformations at early ages due to it intrinsic properties and the environmental effects. Micro-cracking results on the top surface of pavement if deformations are restrained. These micro-cracks propagate transversely and downwards over time under traffic loadings, especially during early ages. This situation can be severe if upward curling conditions exist in pavements. Estimation of the remaining fatigue life of pavements with such cracks is of significance for scheduling prompt maintenance. Conventional fatigue models established based on uncracked beam tests are no longer applicable for such cases. It is necessary to develop a fracture mechanics-based fatigue model for pavement with cracks. This study provides a new fatigue life prediction methodology for pavement with cracks. Both model prediction and experimental test results suggest that fatigue life is significantly reduced if concrete develops a partial depth crack at early ages. These results can explain the observed premature transverse cracking failure in jointed concrete pavement. Crack growth behavior can be characterized as three stages, in which the steady stage is the most important one when prompt maintenance is needed to avoid structural failure.

“Grasping the Grey”: Patient Understanding and Interpretation of an Intermediate Allele Predictive Test Result for Huntington Disease

Since the discovery of the genetic mutation underlying Huntington disease (HD) and the development of predictive testing, the genetics of HD has generally been described as straightforward; an individual receives either mutation-positive or negative predictive test results. However, in actuality, the genetics of HD is complex and a small proportion of individuals receive an unusual predictive test result called an intermediate allele (IA). Unlike mutation-positive or negative results, IAs confer uncertain clinical implications. While individuals with an IA will usually not develop HD, there remains an unknown risk for their children and future generations to develop the disorder. The purpose of this study was to explore how individuals understood and interpreted their IA result. Interviews were conducted with 29 individuals who received an IA result and 8 medical genetics service providers. Interviews were analyzed using the constant comparative method and the coding procedures of grounded theory. Many participants had difficulty "Grasping the Grey" (i.e. understanding and interpreting their IA results) and their family experience, beliefs, expectations, and genetic counseling influenced the degree of this struggle. The theoretical model developed informs clinical practice regarding IAs, ensuring that this unique subset of patients received appropriate education, support, and counseling.

Academic preparedness of students – an exploratory study

The high level of student failure, accompanied by an increased drop-out rate, is problematic in higher education. It is especially a concern in programmes with the subjects of Mathematics, Accounting and Science. Over many years, models of student admission and selection have been widely researched both internationally and in South Africa. Research indicates that in the academic domain, underpreparedness results from a combination of a lack of English proficiency, mathematical ability and effective study skills. In view of the above, and government policy directives to broaden access in the scarce skills areas to increase student throughput, foundation provision was introduced for students of Commerce, Information Technology, Business, Mathematics and Informatics courses at the Vaal Triangle Campus (VTC) of North-West University (NWU) in 2010. The question at that time then arose as to what criteria should be used for placing students in the extended programme. The placement of first-year students in appropriate programmes should be done with sensitivity to enhance academic success but, at the same time, should not ‘label’ students as underprepared. This paper provides perspectives on the selection criteria available for predicting academic success/preparedness, and then reports on students’ own experiences. An action research study was conducted on the academic achievement of two cohorts of first-year students at the VTC of NWU. The quantitative results of the performance of first-year students in their core modules are compared to the results of predictive tests written after admission. The results provide valuable insight into the placement of students.Keywords: Academic preparedness, extended programmes, national senior certificate, national benchmark testDisciplines: Education management studies, higher education studies

Stable and unstable fatigue prediction for A572 structural steel using acoustic emission

The association of acoustic emission (AE) signals with crack growth behavior in the material of interest is the basis for monitoring the fatigue damage of in-service steel structures with the AE method. A model including the absolute energy rate of AE, stress intensity, fracture toughness and load ratio is presented to predict crack extension and remaining fatigue life for stable and unstable crack stages. The model is based on the Forman equation, and the balance between AE signal energy and the energy released due to crack growth. Results from AE-monitored fatigue tests with load ratios of 0.02, 0.1 and 0.7 are utilized to validate the presented model. To separate AE signals associated with crack growth from noise, a combined approach involving pattern recognition and analysis of waveform features was employed. Prediction procedures are demonstrated based on the presented model and experimental data. Reasonable agreement exists between the observed and predicted test results. The presented model conservatively estimates fatigue damage and remaining fatigue life.

A material sparing test to predict punch sticking during formulation development

Context: A qualitative and material sparing test for punch sticking was developed as a predictive development screening tool for comparison of formulation strategies and processing methods to eliminate punch adhesion.Objective: To develop a predictive test for a formulation’s potential to adhere to tablet punches during compression.Materials and methods: Two proprietary compounds, A and B, with histories of punch sticking during manufacturing but not in development, were formulated with microcrystalline cellulose, lactose, croscarmellose sodium, and magnesium stearate. Matching placebos were also prepared by the same methods. Flat faced bevel edge (FFBE) punches of 1/2″ diameter were compared with 1/4″ SRC punches and 1/4″ Flat Faced (FF) punches for adhesion potential using a Kilian rotary tablet press and a Huxley Bertram compaction simulator.Results and discussion: Formulation accumulated on the punches after compression, which indicated potential for punch sticking that resulted in defective tablets with successive compactions. In all cases, only active formulations adhered to the FFBE and FF punches during tableting runs and with fewer compactions than the SRC punches. Those APIs were then reformulated and successfully manufactured using the predictive test results. Reducing the punch size to 1/4″ permitted testing with 50 g of formulation, a ten-fold reduction in consumption compared to the 1/2″ punches.Conclusion: Flat surfaced punches were shown to be more challenging to adhesive formulations than SRC punches. Adhesive formulations were reformulated and successfully manufactured without punch sticking.

Instantaneous Load Intensities Incorporated with a Cold Region Environment for CFRP-Confined Concrete in Axial Compression

This paper presents the durability performance of axially loaded concrete cylinders with or without carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) confinement subjected to a typical cold region environment associated with various instantaneous load intensities. These factors have been identified from previous research that examines critical attributes affecting the deterioration of constructed bridges in cold climate: aging and live load. A total of 31 cylinders are tested to study the effect of such critical factors. A three-dimensional finite-element model is developed to predict test results. Load-carrying capacity of the unconfined concrete decreases due to the environmental exposure and the decrease rate is accelerated with the presence of live load effects, including substantial crack propagation. For the confined cylinders, the effect of environment and instantaneous intensities is not significant in terms of strength and energy dissipation. The ACI440.2R-08 provisions are found to be adequate to estimate the capacity of CFRP-confined concrete subjected to a combined cold region environment and live load effect.

Aspectos éticos del diagnóstico presintomático de la enfermedad de Alzheimer

Research into the human genome has undoubtedly opened up a new perspective in medicine. The ability to identify the cause of specific diseases, especially neurodegenerative diseases, will definitively change the concepts of disease and treatment, while advances such as antibiotic therapy and anesthesia will be relegated to history. However, the arrival of genome medicine poses major bioethical challenges, many of which remain to be resolved. We review the applicability, results and consequences of predictions based on genetic tests for presymptomatic Alzheimer's disease, as well as the dilemmas and contradictions that are already arising as a result of the commercialization of predictive tests for public use with little or no medical supervision. Given that there is currently no effective treatment of Alzheimeŕs disease, the greatest challenge and contradiction lies in managing the results of predictive tests. There are no indications for the performance of predictive genetic tests in late or sporadic Alzheimer's disease or for counselling of persons requesting these tests. The PICOGEN program provides a safe, effective, reliable and satisfactory option for persons requesting these tests who meet the inclusion criteria. Currently, caution should be the norm when considering the performance of predictive tests in presymptomatic dementia.

Analytical Model for Rockfall Protection Galleries - a Blind Prediction of Test Results and Conclusion

A system of multiple degrees of freedom composed out of three masses and three springs has been presented in 2008 for analyzing rockfall impacts on protective structures covered by a cushion layer. The model has then been used for a blind prediction of a large-scale test carried out in Sapporo, Japan, in November 2009. The test results showed substantial deviations from the blind predictions, which led to a deeper evaluation of the model input parameters showing a significant influence of the modeling properties for the cushion layer on the overall results. The cushion properties include also assumptions for the loading geometry and the definition of the parameters can be challenging. This paper introduces the test setup and the selected parameters in the proposed model for the blind prediction. After comparison with the test results, adjustments in the input parameters in order to match the test results have been evaluated. Conclusions for the application of the model as well as for further model improvements are drawn.

Personal factors associated with reported benefits of Huntington disease family history or genetic testing.

A family history of Huntington disease (HD) or receiving results of HD predictive genetic testing can influence individual well-being, family relationships, and social interactions in positive and negative ways. The aim of this study was to examine benefits reported by people with an HD family history or those who have undergone predictive HD testing, as well as the personal variables associated with perceived benefits. Seventy-four of 433 people completing the International Response of a Sample Population to HD risk (I-RESPOND-HD) survey reported benefits. Knowledge and understanding was perceived as the most common benefit from participants in both groups. The next most frequent perceived benefits from a family history were connecting with others and achieving life meaning and insights. The next most common perceived benefits from genetic testing were life planning and social support. The least common perceived benefit for both groups was renewed hope and optimism. Older age and spirituality were significantly associated with benefits in both groups. Perceptions of benefit may not be as likely until later years in people with prodromal HD. A developed sense of spirituality is identified as a personal resource associated with the perception of benefit from genetic testing for HD. Associations among spirituality, perceived benefits, and other indicators of personal and family well-being may be useful in genetic counseling and health care of people with prodromal HD.

Unambiguous test results or individual independence? The role of clients and families in predictive BRCA-testing in the Netherlands compared to the USA

It has been frequently acknowledged that results of predictive genetic tests may have implications for relatives as well as for the individual client. Ethicists have noted that an individual’s right to know her genetic risk may conflict with a relative’s right not to know this risk. It is hardly recognised, however, that family members may have a role in the production of test results as well.This article reconstructs the actual process of predictive BRCA-testing in the Netherlands, with a special focus on the roles assigned to clients and families and the expectations about family relationships inscribed in this practice. Fieldwork was carried out in an outpatient clinic for clinical genetics in an academic hospital. Data collection included 11 interviews with members of families, observations of counselling interviews between research participants and their clinical geneticist, and interviews with the 2 clinical geneticists involved in the consultations. It compares this process to the American practice of BRCA-testing. Whereas Dutch practice presupposes active involvement of diseased relatives in the testing process, American practice constitutes the client primarily as an independent individual who may or may not decide to involve her relatives. Moreover, Dutch clients are expected to have a harmonious, open and communicative relationship with their relatives. The American client, in contrast, is supposed to have more distant family relationships.It is argued that an interpretation of these differences in terms of ‘the right to know’ and ‘the right not to know’ misses the point, because the production of informative test results depends on the cooperation of relatives. The differences between Dutch and American practice are more adequately interpreted as implying a preference for unambiguous test results versus a preference for individual independence. The paper shows what is lost when opting for one value at the cost of another and discusses several alternatives to circumvent the value conflict at stake. By opening up for discussion the values implicit in BRCA-testing practices, the paper aims to contribute to debates on the overall desirability of these practices.

An approximate model for three-dimensional alternating current potential drop analyses using a commercial finite element code

Alternating current potential drop (ACPD) is an established technique for non-destructive testing and materials characterisation. Finite element (FE) simulation is a very useful tool for the optimisation of probes and the prediction of test results, but three-dimensional models of ACPD problems are computationally intensive. This paper presents a new, simple model in which frequency-related effects are taken into account by appropriately modifying the geometry of the modelled structure: a DC analysis can then be performed on a smaller domain, thus reducing the computational power required. The results of experimental tests for the validation of the model are also presented and discussed.