Predictive Factors For Outcome Research Articles

Fourth Ventricular Epidermoid Cyst - Case Series, Systematic Review and Analysis.

Background:Epidermoid cysts are extra-axial, pearly white avascular lesions mostly found in the cerebellopontine region. They are slow-growing and mostly become symptomatic when they attain significant size. They do occur at other anatomical locations, but fourth ventricle is a rare location. Three representative cases with their outcomes are described here.Methods:The systematic review was done with adherence to predefined criteria. The studied variables were age, gender, duration of symptoms (DOS), clinical features, hydrocephalus (HCP), extent of resection, postoperative complications, outcome, follow–up, and recurrence. Statistical analysis was done to identify predictive factors for outcome.Results:Final analysis included 58 studies containing 131 patients. The most common clinical feature was cerebellar dysfunction (93%). The most common cranial nerve involved was the abducens nerve (n = 37, 28.46%). Preoperative HCP was present in nearly a third (35%) of patients. The outcomes were not different with age (P = 0.23), gender (P = 0.74), DOS (P = 0.09), and HCP (P = 0.50). Improved outcomes were associated with total resections (P = 0.001), absence of preoperative cranial nerve dysfunctions (P = 0.004), and presentation with features of raised intracranial pressure (P = 0.005). Longer DOS (mean 76.74 months) was associated with significantly increased cranial nerve nuclei involvement (P = 0.03). Aseptic meningitis was reported in 14.5% of cases. Recurrences were infrequently reported (n = 9).Conclusions:Although the fourth ventricular epidermoid lesions are difficult to detect in an innocuous stage, when found, they should be extirpated early and totally, as a longer DOS leads to cranial nerve dysfunctions and suboptimal outcomes.

Clinico-epidemiological Analysis of Adult Patients With Acute Poisoning

Background: Patients with acute poisoning sometimes require hospitalization in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The correct admission of these patients has resulted to lower mortality. This study compared the characteristics of adult patients with acute poisoning who were admitted to the poisoning ward and the ICU. We also determined the relevant outcome predictive factors. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on adult acutely poisoned patients who were admitted to the emergency room of Khorshid Hospital affiliated with Isfahan University of Medical Sciences from October 2018 to 2019. The clinico-epidemiological variables and outcomes were compared between adult patients hospitalized in the ward (n=100) and ICU (n=100). Binary logistic regression was used for predicting the outcome factors. Results: The Mean±SE age of the study patients in the ICU and ward were 36.6±1.62 (median: 34) and 34.20±1.19 years, (median: 33, P=0.23), respectively. There was no significant difference between the study groups respecting substance dependence, alcohol and drug abuse, disease history, and the type of exposure (P>0.05). However, self-mutilation, the kind of substance, the vital signs and level of consciousness at admission, and outcomes were significantly different between the research groups (P<0.05). Variables predicting outcomes (complication/death) were as follows: gender (male) (OR: 4.51; 95%CI: 1.51-13.42; P=0.007), the kind of substance (pesticides) (OR: 8.84; 95%CI: 1.78-44.07; P=0.008), time to admission (OR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.02-1.08; P=0.002), hypotension (OR: 14.88; 95%CI: 3.01-71.58; P=0.001), and the place of hospitalization (ward) (OR: 2.85; 95%CI: 1.23-6.62; P=0.01). Conclusion: The self-mutilation, kind of substance, vital signs, level of consciousness at admission, and outcomes were significantly different between the study patients hospitalized in the ICU, compared to the ward. Gender (male), the kind of substance (pesticides), delayed arrival times, hypotension, and the place of hospitalization (ward) were essential factors for outcome (complication/death) prediction.

Impact of tumor programmed death ligand-1 expression on osimertinib efficacy in untreated EGFR-mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a prospective observational study.

BackgroundOsimertinib monotherapy is currently the standard of care as a first-line treatment for patients harboring epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations; however, some EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients exhibit primary resistance and an insufficient response to EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). Elevated programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression in tumors was reported as a negative predictive factor for outcomes of first- or second-generation EGFR-TKIs.MethodsWe prospectively assessed advanced NSCLC patients with EGFR mutations who were treated with osimertinib at 14 institutions in Japan between September 2019 and December 2020. Relationships between outcomes of osimertinib monotherapy and patients’ characteristics were reviewed.ResultsSeventy-one patients who underwent the tumor PD-L1 test were enrolled. Multivariate analysis identified tumor PD-L1 expression as an independent predictor for progression-free survival (PFS) with osimertinib treatment (P=0.029). The objective-response and disease-control rates for osimertinib treatment were significantly lower in patients demonstrating elevated PD-L1 levels relative to those with low or negative PD-L1 level (P=0.043 and P=0.007, respectively). Furthermore, among patients treated with osimertinib, those with high PD-L1 levels exhibited shorter PFS relative to those with low plus negative PD-L1 level (median PFS: 5.0 vs. 17.4 months; P<0.001).ConclusionsElevated tumor PD-L1 expression is associated with poor outcomes of osimertinib monotherapy in previously untreated advanced NSCLC patients with EGFR mutation. Further clinical trials are warranted to accumulate evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of combination therapy with osimertinib for EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC patients with elevated tumor PD-L1 expression.Trial RegistrationUMIN000043942.

The log odds of positive lymph nodes predicts survival of advanced stage endometrial cancer: a retrospective analysis of 3230 patients in the SEER database

The log odds of positive lymph nodes predicts survival of advanced stage endometrial cancer: a retrospective analysis of 3230 patients in the SEER database

Predictive Factors for Outcomes of Overcorrection Nighttime Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis: A Systematic Review.

Predictive clinical and radiological factors can potentially identify adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) most likely to benefit from overcorrection nighttime bracing. These factors can provide helpful information in clinical decision making. However, the relationship between these factors and outcomes of overcorrection nighttime bracing is unclear. This systematic review determined the predictive factors for identifying outcomes of overcorrection nighttime bracing in AIS. A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase from January 1986 to January 2021. Studies on AIS patients, aged 10–18 years, with a Risser sign of 0–2 and an initial Cobb angle of 20°–45°, who were treated with overcorrection nighttime bracing and for whom at least one predictive factor of treatment outcome (failure and/or success) was assessed were included. Two blinded reviewers independently evaluated the studies using a quality assessment tool. To determine predictive factors, the level of evidence was rated through best-evidence synthesis. A total of nine studies met the inclusion criteria. A Providence brace was used in six of the included studies, while a Charleston bending brace was used in three. Findings from two high-quality studies provided strong evidence of the association between curve flexibility and brace treatment success. In terms of the Risser sign, this evidence was obtained from three high-quality studies. Moderate evidence indicated a positive association between premenarchal status and nighttime bracing failure. Inconclusive evidence indicated that poor brace compliance is associated with treatment failure. Conflicting evidence of treatment failure was indicated for initial curve magnitude, curve type, in-brace correction, age, Risser sign, curve apex, and sex. These findings show that greater curve flexibility and a higher Risser sign are associated with overcorrection nighttime bracing success.

Outcomes of Patients With Parkinson Disease Undergoing Cervical Spine Surgery for Radiculopathy and Myelopathy With Minimum 2-Year Follow-up.

This was a retrospective cohort analysis. To identify the impact of Parkinson disease (PD) on 2-year postoperative outcomes following cervical spine surgery (CSS). (PD) patients are prone to spine malalignment and surgical interventions, yet little is known regarding outcomes of CSS among PD patients. All patients from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System with cervical radiculopathy or myelopathy who underwent CSS were included; among these, those with PD were identified. PD and non-PD patients (n=64 each) were 1:1 propensity score-matched by age, sex, race, surgical approach, and Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index (DCCI). Demographics, hospital-related parameters, and adverse postoperative outcomes were compared between cohorts. Logistic regression identified predictive factors for outcomes. Overall, patient demographics were comparable between cohorts, except that DCCI was higher in PD patients (1.28 vs. 0.67, P=0.028). PD patients had lengthier mean hospital stays than non-PD patients (6.4 vs. 4.1 d, P=0.046). PD patients also incurred comparable total hospital expenses ($69,565 vs. $57,388, P=0.248). Individual medical complication rates were comparable between cohorts; though PD patients had higher rates of postoperative altered mental status (4.7% vs. 0%, P=0.08) and acute renal failure (10.9% vs. 3.1%, P=0.084), these differences were not significant. Yet, PD patients experienced higher rates of overall medical complications (35.9% vs. 18.8%, P=0.029). PD patients had comparable rates of individual and overall surgical complications. The PD cohort underwent higher reoperation rates (15.6% vs. 7.8%, P=0.169) compared with non-PD patients, though this difference was not significant. Of note, PD was not a significant predictor of overall 2-year complications (odds ratio=1.57, P=0.268) or reoperations (odds ratio=2.03, P=0.251). Overall medical complication rates were higher in patients with PD, while individual medical complications as well as surgical complication and reoperation rates after elective CSS were similar in patients with and without PD, though PD patients required longer hospital stays. Importantly, a baseline diagnosis of PD was not significantly associated with adverse two-year medical and surgical complications. This data may improve counseling and risk-stratification for PD patients before CSS. Level III.

Predictive Factors for Outcome of First Allogeneic Transplant for Elderly Patients With Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Introduction/Background: The treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in patients older than 70 is extremely challenging with dismal outcome. Allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloHCT) has seen many advancements in the last decades showing benefits in younger ALL patients, but this treatment modality is decreasingly used with increasing age due to high treatment-related mortality. Patients and Methods: We identified 84 ALL patients 70 to 84 years old allografted In 2002 to 2019 from a matched related (23%), unrelated (58%), haploidentical (17%), or cord blood (2%) donor at EBMT participating centers with a median follow-up of 23 months. Results: The 2-year relapse incidence (RI) and non-relapse mortality were 37% and 28%, respectively, and 2-year leukemia-free survival (LFS), overall survival (OS) and GVHD-free, relapse-free survival (GRFS) were 35%, 39% and 23%, respectively. The strongest predictor of outcome was disease status at transplant whereby patients in first complete remission (CR1) had >50% 2-year OS, reflected in multivariate analysis (MVA) with significant improvement in RI, LFS, and GRFS (HR 0.23, 0.49, and 0.54, respectively). Furthermore, karnofsky score ≥90 reflective of good functional status positively influenced non-relapse mortality in both univariate and MVA (HR 0.37), and interestingly, donor CMV positivity appeared to negatively affect RI, LFS and OS in univariate analysis and RI in MVA (HR 2.87). Conclusion: Our data suggest that alloHCT is an option for elderly ALL patients, particularly those carefully selected and transplanted in CR1 especially if failed or without access to novel non-chemotherapy-based approaches.

Balance response to levodopa predicts balance improvement after bilateral subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation in Parkinson\u2019s disease

The effect of subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) on balance function in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and the potential outcome predictive factors remains unclear. We retrospectively included 261 PD patients who underwent STN-DBS and finished the 1-month follow-up (M1) assessment in the explorative set for identifying postoperative balance change predictors, and 111 patients who finished both the M1 and 12-month follow-up (M12) assessment in the validation set for verifying the identified factors. Motor and balance improvement were evaluated through the UPDRS-III and the Berg balance scale (BBS) and pull test (PT), respectively. Candidate predictors of balance improvement included age, disease duration, motor subtypes, baseline severity of PD, cognitive status, motor and balance response to levodopa, and stimulation parameters. In the off-medication condition, STN-DBS significantly improved BBS and PT performance in both the M1 and M12, in both datasets. While in the on-medication condition, no significant balance improvement was observed. Higher preoperative BBS response to levodopa was significantly associated with larger postoperative off-medication, but not on-medication, BBS (p < 0.001) and PT (p < 0.001) improvement in both the M1 and M12. BBS subitems 8, 9, 11, 13, and 14 were the major contributors to the prediction of balance improvement after STN-DBS. STN-DBS improves short-term off-medication, but not on-medication, balance function assessed through BBS and PT. Preoperative BBS response to levodopa best predicts postoperative off-medication balance improvement. For patients who manifested severe balance problems, a levodopa challenge test on BBS or the short version of BBS is recommended.

Surface osteosarcoma: Predictors of outcomes.

The subtypes of surface osteosarcomas include well-differentiated, low-grade parosteal osteosarcoma (POS), intermediate-grade periosteal osteosarcoma (PerOS), high-grade surface osteosarcoma (HGSO), and high-grade, dedifferentiated POS (dPOS). We aimed to determine disease progression, defined as local recurrence and metastatic disease, and overall (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). We identify outcome predictive factors and report functional results. This retrospective study evaluated patients with primary surface osteosarcoma at our hospital from 1992 to 2019. Fifty-one patients had a median follow-up of 6.1 years (range: 0.1-25.2). Histologic subtypes included 32 POS, 11 PerOS, 4 HGSO, and 3 dPOS. Bone and soft tissue margins were classified using the American Joint Committee on Cancer residual tumor classification (Rx = Not evaluable; R0 = negative margin; R1 = microscopic positive margin; and R2 = macroscopic positive margin) and the modified R classification (mRx = not evaluable; mR0 = negative margin >1 mm; mR1 = negative margin ≤1 mm; mR1-dir: Positive microscopic margin locally; mR2a: Positive macroscopic margin locally; mR2b: positive macroscopic margin distally; and mR2C: positive macroscopic margin locally and distally). Forty-one patients had functional outcomes. Three POS patients developed recurrence: two had R0 margins and one an intralesional resection. Five patients developed lung metastases (POS: 3, dPOS: 2). Four patients died. The only significant disease progression predictor was age. OS at 10 years was 97%. 48 patients had negative bone margins (R0 or mR0 and mR1) and 47 patients had negative soft-tissue margins (R0 or mR0 and mR1). The average MSTS score was 88.43 (range: 34.29-100). We advocate surgery for POS and believe R0 (mR0 and mR1 resections) or planned R1 (mR1-dir) to preserve function are acceptable. We favor chemotherapy and surgery for PerOS, though a chemotherapeutic response is highly variable. High-grade tumors are the most infrequent subtype, but HGSO and dPOS seem to portend a poorer prognosis. Good function can be obtained.

Clinical, Surgical and Outcome Predictive Factor Analysis of Operated Acute Subdural Hematoma Cases: A Retrospective Study of 114 Operated Cases at Tertiary Centre

Abstract Objective To analyze clinical, surgical and outcome predictive factors of operated acute subdural hematoma (SDH) cases for prognostication and surgical outcome prediction. Material and Methods This retrospective study includes 114 patients operated for acute SDH in the Department of Neurosurgery of IMS BHU, Varanasi, India, a tertiary care center, between 1 August 2018 and 1 November 2019. Each patient was evaluated for age, sex, mode of injury, localization of hematoma, clinical presentation, comorbidity, severity of injury, best motor response, CT findings, and Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) at discharge. The outcome was also evaluated by further making a dichotomized group using GOS in death/dependent (1–3) versus independent (4–5). Statistical tests were done using the GraphPad Prism version 8.3.0. Results The most common age group operated upon in this study was the 40 to 60 years age group (n = 45, 39.48%). Males were 78% with male to female ratio of 3.56:1. The most common clinical presentation was altered sensorium (98.25%). The most common comorbidity was hypertension (n = 32, 28.07%). GCS at admission, severity of injury, pupillary changes, and best motor response (p &lt; 0.0001) were significantly associated with surgical outcome. Conclusion GCS at admission, severity of injury, pupillary changes, and best motor response were significantly (p &lt; 0.05) associated with surgical outcome. Age and gender of patients were not found to be significantly associated.

TMB and BRAF mutation status are independent predictive factors in stage IIIC/D/IV melanoma patients receiving adjuvant PD-1 antibodies.

9524 Background: High tumor mutational burden (TMB) is associated with a favorable outcome in metastatic melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. However, data are limited in the adjuvant setting. As BRAF mutated patients have an alternative with targeted adjuvant therapy, it is important to identify predictive factors for relapse and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients receiving adjuvant PD-1 antibodies. Methods: We systematically evaluated all melanoma patients who started adjuvant PD-1 antibody therapy at our center between March 2018 and September 2019 to identify predictive factors for outcome. The median follow-up time from start of adjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy was 22 months. Tumor and normal tissue of all stage IIIC/D/IV patients and of stage IIIA/B patients with relapse were sequenced using a 700 genes panel. Predictive factors for relapse and RFS were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic and Cox regression analysis. RFS was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. TMB high was defined as the top 20 % of the cohort, corresponding to TMB values ≥ 20 Var/Mb. Results: A total of 165 patients were included in this study. According to AJCC 8th the initial tumor stages at the beginning of adjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy were as follows: N = 80 stage IIIA/B (48 %), N = 85 stage IIIC/D/IV (52 %). 72/165 patients (44 %) suffered a relapse, 44/72 (61 %) with loco regional and 28/72 (39 %) with distant metastases. Sequencing results were available from 79 / 85 patients with stage IIIC/D/IV. Here we present the results of this cohort. TMB low (OR 17.46, 95%CI 4.03-75.55; p &lt; 0.0001) or absence of BRAF V600E/K mutation (OR 4.13, 95%CI 1.36-12.53; p = 0.012) were statistically significant, independent predictive factors for relapse. Also, with regard to RFS, BRAF mutation status and TMB were statistically significant and independent predictive factors. In the table below we display results for the combined variables. Patients with BRAF V600E/K mutation and TMB high had the best outcome. Conclusions: We identified TMB high as positive predictive marker in stage IIIC/D/IVmelanoma patients with adjuvant PD-1 antibody therapy. In tumors with BRAF V600E/K mutation and concurrent low TMB, adjuvant targeted therapy with BRAF- and MEK-inhibitors may be an alternative. This is also supported by the data on adjuvant dabrafenib and trametinib, which showed a greater advantage in patients with low TMB, presumably due to less tumor heterogeneity.[Table: see text]

Internalizing psychopathology and all-cause mortality: a comparison of transdiagnostic vs. diagnosis-based risk prediction.

Previous studies have documented the utility of a transdiagnostic internalizing factor in predicting important future outcomes (e.g., subsequent mental disorder diagnoses). To date, however, no study has investigated whether an internalizing factor predicts mortality risk. Also, whilepre-vious studies of mortality risk have emphasized its associations with particular internalizing disorders, no study has assessed how the transdiagnostic internalizing factor vs. disorder-specific variance differently predict that risk. The primary aims of this study were to explore: a) whether the internalizing factor predicts mortality risk, b) whether particular internalizing psychopathologies uniquely predict mortality risk over and beyond the transdiagnostic internalizing factor, and c) whether there is a significant interaction of internalizing with self-reported health in the prediction of mortality risk. We utilized a large national sample of American adults from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), a longitudinal study that examined midlife development of individuals across multiple waves between 1995 and 2015. Data were analyzed for the 6,329 participants who completed the phone interview and self-administered questionnaire in MIDUS 1 (1995-1996) and were then followed up until October 31, 2015 or until death. To investigate the association between internalizing and mortality risk, we used the semi-parametric proportional hazards Cox model, where survival time was regressed on a latent internalizing factor. Overall findings indicate that a transdiagnostic internalizing factor significantly predicts mortality risk over a 20-year period (hazard ratio, HR=1.12, 95% CI: 1.05-1.16, p<0.01) and that internalizing outperforms disorder-specific variance (e.g., depression-specific variance) in the prediction of that risk. Further, there was a significant interaction between transdiagnostic internalizing and self-reported health, whereby internalizing psychopathology had a specific association with early death for individuals with excellent self-reported health condition (HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.17-1.84, p<0.05). This highlights the clinical utility of using the transdiagnostic internalizing factor for prediction of an important future outcome, and supports the argument that internalizing psychopathology can be a meaningful liability to explore in public health practice.

Low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma: outcome predictive factors in a cohort of patients not treated with radioiodine therapy after total thyroidectomy

Searchable abstracts of presentations at key conferences in endocrinology ISSN 1470-3947 (print) | ISSN 1479-6848 (online)

In neonatal-onset surgical short bowel syndrome survival is high, and enteral autonomy is related to residual bowel length.

In an era of improved management and treatment options, this study aims to describe the long-term outcomes and factors predictive of outcomes of neonatal-onset intestinal failure (IF) due to surgical short bowel syndrome (SBS). Retrospective, single-center cohort study of infants born between January 2011 and December 2018 with inclusion criteria: <44 weeks postmenstrual age at SBS diagnosis, <28 days on admission, parenteral nutrition dependence >60 days, and documented intestinal resection. Primary outcomes included survival and achievement of enteral autonomy (EA). Data analysis utilized Fisher.s exact test, Kruskal-Wallis test, survival analysis methods, Cox proportional hazards regression, linear regression and logistic regression. Ninety-five patients (males 56%) were studied with median follow-up of 38 months (IQR 19, 59). Survival at last follow-up was 96%, and EA was achieved in 85%. Forty-eight patients had documented residual bowel length (RBL) with median length of 49 cm (IQR 36, 80). Survival in patients with RBL of <30cm (n = 8), 30-59cm (n = 19), and >60cm (n = 21) was 100%, 95%, and 95% respectively. Shorter RBL was associated with longer time to achieve EA (p = 0.007), but not with survival (p = 0.81). Delay in achieving EA was associated with absence of ileocecal valve (p = 0.002) and bloodstream infections (p < 0.001). Peak conjugated bilirubin correlated with increased mortality (p = 0.002). Overall high rate of survival and achievement of EA was found in neonatal onset IF due to SBS. EA but not survival was correlated with RBL. Ileocecal valve, bloodstream infections, and conjugated bilirubin levels were the other predictive factors of outcomes.

Six vs 12 Sessions of Gut-focused Hypnotherapy for Irritable Bowel Syndrome: A Randomized Trial

Gut-focused hypnotherapy has been shown to be a highly effective treatment for irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) in randomized controlled trials.1 Previous studies have not only demonstrated long-term efficacy on IBS symptoms, but have also demonstrated improvement in noncolonic symptoms, anxiety, quality of life, and reduced healthcare utilization.2–5 Recently, it has been suggested that the number of treatment sessions might be an important predictive factor for outcomes.6 However, this has not been previously studied, and therefore no consensus is available on the optimal volume of sessions.

Outcome beyond third-line chemotherapy for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer in the French ESME program

PurposeAmong metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients, those with a triple-negative breast cancer phenotype (mTNBC) have the worst prognosis, but the benefit of chemotherapy beyond second line on outcome remains uncertain. The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors of outcome after third- or fourth-line chemotherapy. MethodsThe ESME-MBC database is a French prospective real-life cohort with homogeneous data collection, including patients who initiated first-line treatment for MBC (2008–2016) in 18 cancer centers. After selection of mTNBC cases, we searched for independent predictive factors (Cox proportional-hazards regression models) for overall survival (OS) on third- and fourth-line chemotherapy (OS3, OS4). We built prognostic nomograms based on the main prognostic factors identified. ResultsOf the 22,266 MBC cases in the ESME cohort, 2903 were mTNBC, 1074 (37%) and 598 (20%) of which had received at least 3 or 4 lines of chemotherapy. PFS after first- and second-line chemotherapy (PFS1, PFS2) and number of metastatic sites ≥3 at baseline were identified by multivariate analysis as prognostic factors for both OS3 (HR = 0.76 95%CI[0.66–0.88], HR = 0.55 95%CI[0.46–0.65], HR = 1.36 95%CI[1.14–1.62], respectively), and OS4 (HR = 0.76 95%CI[0.63–0.91], HR = 0.56 95%CI[0.45–0.7], HR = 1.37 95%CI[1.07–1.74]), respectively. In addition, metastasis-free interval was identified as a prognostic factor for OS3 (p = 0.01), while PFS3 influenced OS4 (HR = 0.75 95%CI[0.57–0.98]). Nomograms predicting OS3 and OS4 achieved a C-index of 0.62 and 0.61, respectively. ConclusionThe duration of each previous PFS is a major prognostic factor for OS in mTNBC patients receiving third- or fourth-line chemotherapy. The clinical utility of nomograms including this information was not demonstrated.

Valvuloplasty Without Prosthetic Ring or Band in Patients with Degenerative Mitral Regurgitation: Long-Term Results and Predictive Factors for Outcomes.

IntroductionMitral valvuloplasty including ring/band support is widely performed despite potential drawbacks of rings. Unsupported valvuloplasty is performed in only a few centers. This study aimed to report long-term outcomes of patients undergoing unsupported valvuloplasty for degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) and to identify predictive factors for outcomes.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort including patients undergoing mitral valve repair for degenerative MR from 2000 to 2018. The main techniques were Wooler annuloplasty and quadrangular resection. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models were used for statistical analysis.ResultsOne hundred fifty-eight patients were included (median age: 64.0 years). In-hospital mortality was 2.5%. Maximum follow-up was 19.6 years, with a median of 4.7 years (992 patient-years). Overall survival at 5, 10, and 15 years was 91.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 85.7-96.3), 87.6% (95% CI: 80.7-94.5), and 78.1% (95% CI: 65.9-90.3), respectively. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was an independent predictor of late death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.42; P=0.016). Freedom from mitral reoperation at 5, 10, and 15 years was 88.1% (95% CI: 82.0-94.2), 82.4% (95% CI: 74.6-90.2), and 75.7% (95% CI: 64.1-87.3), respectively. Left atrial diameter > 56 mm was associated with late reintervention in univariate analysis (HR 1.06; P=0.049).ConclusionDegenerative MR can be successfully treated with repair techniques without annular support, thus avoiding the technical and logistical drawbacks of ring/band implantation while maintaining good long-term results. EuroSCORE II was a risk factor for late death, and larger left atrium was associated with late reoperation.

One year comprehensive prospective follow-up of achalasia patients after peroral endoscopic myotomy

Background and aims Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) is an established therapy for achalasia, but outcome evaluation has often been limited to Eckardt score (ES). The present study was aimed to improve knowledge about outcome evaluation and predictive outcome factors by performing a comprehensive objective evaluation of achalasia patients treated by POEM. Methods This single centre prospective study reports outcome data 12 months after POEM in treatment-naive achalasia patients. A predefined follow-up protocol included ES, high resolution manometry, 24-h pH measurement, upper endoscopy and timed barium esophagogram (TBE). Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to analyze association between post-POEM variables and identify predictive factors for objective outcome. Results Fifty patients were included with a drop-out rate of <5%. ES, lower oesophageal sphincter pressures, TBE heights and maximal oesophageal diameter were all reduced after POEM (p < .001), and 28% (13/47) of the patients had a positive 24-h pH registration. An oesophageal diameter >3 cm after POEM was associated with treatment failure assessed by ES (p = .04) and TBE (p = .03). Advanced achalasia stage (p = .02) and long symptom duration (p = .04) were identified as independent predictive factors for poor outcome assessed by TBE. Conclusions The present study confirms that POEM is an efficient therapy for achalasia. The comprehensive objective evaluation after POEM demonstrates that long symptom duration and major changes in oesophageal anatomy at diagnosis imply poor treatment outcome, and a post-POEM dilated oesophagus is associated with treatment failure. Key messages Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) is established as a safe and effective therapy for achalasia. Timed barium esophagogram offers objective variables that are valuable in treatment response evaluation. Advanced achalasia stage and long symptom duration are predictive factors for poor objective treatment response after POEM.

Factors influencing efficacy of complete decongestive treatment in patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema

Background/Aim: The most recommended form of lymphoedema therapy is complete decongestive treatment (CDT). Efficacy of CDT in patients with arm lymphoedema related to malignant breast tumour has reported in many studies, but the predictive factors of outcome of this therapy have not been yet sufficiently investigated. The purpose of this research was to identify predictive factors of efficacy of CDT in patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema throughout the intensive phase of therapy. Methods: The prospective study included 51 patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema who were subjected to a 3-week program of CDT. Patients' clinical and demographic features, breast cancer treatment characteristics, lymphoedema and CDT characteristics were collected and assessed for their prognostic value. The influence of certain predictors on the degree of lymphoedema reduction was evaluated by multivariate linear regression analysis. Results: Mean age was 58.1 ± 8.0 (95 % CI: 55.8 - 60.3), median of BMI was 28.4 kg/m2 (95 % CI: 27.2 - 29.6). The average duration of lymphoedema was 36.5 ± 43.9 months (95 % CI: 24.1 - 48.8). The mean size of lymphoedema before CDT was 6.99 ± 5.36 %, and the mean degree of lymphoedema reduction was 63.7 ± 28.6 %. The mean compliance to bandages was 217.5 ± 97.8 hours (95 % CI: 190.0 - 245.0) and 7 (13.7 %) patients had a history of erysipelas of the ipsilateral arm. When observing each individual predictor, statistically most significant contribution showed the size of lymphoedema before the therapy (p &lt; 0.001), then history of erysipelas (p &lt; 0.01), and patients' age (p &lt; 0.05). Conclusion: Size of lymphoedema before treatment is the most crucial prognostic factor of the efficacy of CDT in the patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema. The present study also identified history of erysipelas and patients age as independent predictors of the CDT efficacy.

Evaluation of ostium size following endoscopic dacryocystorhinostomy as a predictive factor of outcome: A prospective study

Endonasal dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR) is a surgical procedure that aims to increase tear drainage to treat epiphora caused by nasolacrimal obstruction by creating a bypass through the bone between the lacrimal sac and the nasal cavity. A silicone stent is temporarily put in place for 2 months to avoid early obstruction of the rhinostomy. One of the causes of surgical failure is related to progressive stenosis of intranasal ostium, due to fibrosis and new bone growth, inducing a relapse of epiphora and/or dacryocystitis. Few studies have described changes in the size of the intranasal ostium on direct post-DCR measurement or kinetics of its shrinkage. The purpose of this study is to determine whether changes in the size of intranasal ostium might be a predictor of final functional efficacy. A prospective cohort of eighteen consecutive patients undergoing endonasal DCR for chronic epiphora or chronic dacryocystitis between January 2017 and April 2018 was analyzed. Eight patients who underwent bilateral DCR, and twenty-six intranasal ostia were finally analyzed. Follow-up took place every two months for 1 year, with the silicone tube removed at 2 months. Functional success was defined as absence of recurrent epiphora or dacryocystitis. Ostium size was systematically measured on photos taken during intranasal endoscopy performed every 2 months for 1 year. At 2 months after endonasal DCR, 23 of the 26 ostia (88.5%) were functional, but only 19 (73.1%) of them were directly measurable. The mean horizontal diameter at 2 months was 1.44 (SD 0.61) mm, and the mean vertical diameter was 0.86 (SD 0.37) mm, which corresponded to a mean area of 10 (SD 0.84)mm2. We noted a statistically significant decrease in ostium size and area between 2 and 4 months after the procedure (P -0.001), followed by a stabilization period with no statistical correlation between the size of the ostium and its final functional efficacy. At 6 months after DCR, of the 7 ostia that were not initially measurable, 3 were immediately non-functional at 2 months, 3 had a relapse of epiphora at 4 months, and 1 had a relapse of dacryocystitis at 6 months, i.e., 100% clinical failures at 6 months. The other procedures all remained functional after 1 year of follow-up. The intranasal ostium of an endonasal DCR shrinks significantly within the 2 months after removal of the silicone tube and remains stable thereafter. There is no correlation between the size or area of intranasal ostium and its final functional efficacy. However, when the ostium is not measurable at the time of 2-month stent removal, all patients experienced a relapse of epiphora or dacryocystitis within 6 months.