Predictive Factors Of Poor Outcome Research Articles

Practice management guidelines for geriatric trauma: the EAST Practice Management Guidelines Work Group.

Advanced age is a well-recognized risk factor for adverse outcomes after trauma. A substantial body of literature, much of it cited within this article, demonstrates increased morbidity and mortality in geriatric trauma patients compared with their younger counterparts. Whether this outcome difference is because of the decreased physiologic reserve that accompanies aging, a higher incidence of preexisting medical conditions in the geriatric patient, or other factors yet to be identified remains unclear. It is clear, however, that good outcomes can be achieved in this patient population when appropriately aggressive trauma care is directed toward geriatric patients with survivable injuries. Implicit in the above statement is the need to identify, as soon as possible after injury, those patients who will benefit from aggressive resuscitation, timely injury management, and posttrauma rehabilitation. It is equally important, however, to limit these intensive and expensive treatment modalities to patients whose injuries are not only survivable but also compatible with an acceptable quality of life. Our purpose in developing this guideline was to provide the trauma practitioner with some evidence-based recommendations that could be used to guide decision-making in the care of the geriatric trauma patient. We began this process by first developing a series of questions, the answers to which we hoped could be supported by the existing scientific literature. The initial set of questions were as follows: 1. Is age itself a marker of increased morbidity/ mortality? If so, what age should be used? 2. Is age instead a surrogate for increased preexisting conditions (PECs)? If so, which premorbid conditions are particularly predictive of poor outcomes? 3. Should age itself be a criterion for triage from the field directly to a trauma center, regardless of Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Trauma Score (TS), and so forth? If so, what age should be used? 4. Do trauma centers have better outcomes with geriatric trauma than nontrauma centers? 5. Are there specific injuries, scores (e.g., Injury Severity Score [ISS], TS, GCS score), or PEC/age combinations in geriatric trauma patients that are so unlikely to be survivable that a nonaggressive approach from the outset could be justified? 6. What resuscitation end-points should be used for the geriatric trauma patient? 7. Should all geriatric trauma patients receive invasive hemodynamic monitoring? If so, what specific types of monitoring should be used? If not, which geriatric patients benefit from invasive monitoring? Unfortunately, after examining the available literature, it is clear that evidence-based responses to all of the questions raised above are not possible. As the evidentiary tables demonstrate, there are few, if any, prospective, randomized, controlled trials that definitively address any of the above issues. Second, there is a lack of uniformity as to a specific age criterion for geriatric trauma. As shown in the evidentiary tables, geriatric trauma is variously defined in the literature as age greater than or equal to 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, and even 80 years of age. There is even literature support for increased mortality from trauma beginning at age 45! Furthermore, because age is a continuous variable, and not a dichotomous one, adverse outcomes associated with geriatric trauma are likely to increase in a continuous fashion with age as opposed to a stepwise leap as a given patient reaches a specific age. Third, there is no concise definition of a geriatric trauma patient. In some studies, all patients over a given age are included, whereas in others, patients with penetrating injuries, burns, and minor injuries, such as slip-and-falls, are excluded. Some studies include all patients regardless of hemodynamic instability or injury severity, whereas others impose strict entrance criteria or exclude patients who do not survive for a predetermined period of time after admission. Such lack of uniformity regarding inclusion criteria makes it Submitted for publication October 3, 2001. Accepted for publication September 16, 2002. Copyright © 2003 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc. From the Carolinas Medical Center (D.G.J.), Charlotte, North Carolina, Trauma Service, Bronson Hospital (B.R.P.), Kalamazoo, and Trauma Burn Center, University of Michigan Health System (W.W.), Ann Arbor, Michigan, New York Hospital–Cornell Medical Center (P.S.B.), New York, New York, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School (J.S.H.), New Brunswick, New Jersey, Mt. Sinai Hospital (M.R.H.), Chicago, Illinois, Morehouse School of Medicine (K.E.S.), Atlanta, Georgia, and R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center, University of Maryland Medical Center (T.M.S.), Baltimore, Maryland. Address for reprints: David G. Jacobs, MD, Carolinas Medical Center, P.O. Box 32861, Charlotte, NC 28232; email: djacobs@carolinas.org.

Predictive Value of Higher Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels in Patients with Febrile Neutropenia

Background Patients with febrile neutropenia require hospitalization and prompt empirical treatment with broad-spectrum antibiotics. Patients experiencing severe febrile neutropenia episodes need a longer hospitalization period and close follow-up, but those with mild episodes might derive limited benefit from a lengthy hospital stay. This study investigated whether plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) level has a predictive value in prognosis of febrile neutropenia. Methods Twenty-six patients with various hematologic malignancies with 31 neutropenia episodes were enrolled in the study. Fever developed in 26 patients, 14 clinically severe. Results Median plasma IL-6 and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels obtained during the first day of febrile episodes were found significantly higher in severe febrile neutropenia episodes compared to mild episodes (median IL-6: 92.5 pg/mL [range 40.0–650.0] vs. 23.3 pg/mL [range 15.0–65.0], p <0.00001; median CRP: 48 mg/dL [range 16–96] vs. 24 mg/dL [range 16–48, p = 0.0]). Conclusions Plasma IL-6 levels may guide to management of febrile neutropenic patients and may be used as predictive factor for poor outcome in these patients.

Long-term results of faecal diversion for refractory perianal Crohn's disease.

Faecal diversion (FD) for refractory anoperineal Crohn's disease (APCD) is thought to be unsatisfactory with a low overall rate of defunctioning stoma closure. However, only a few patients have so far been reported in the literature. The aim of this study was to reassess the long-term efficiency of FD for APCD. Among 136 patients who were operated for APCD over a 18-year period, 17 underwent FD. The factors assessed were the mortality and morbidity of stoma formation, the evolution of anoperineal Crohn's disease after FD, and predictive factors of FD effectiveness. Mean follow-up after FD was 135 +/- 79 months (range 20-328). Initial healing of APCD was observed in 11 patients (65%), allowing stoma closure after 14 +/- 9 months (range 3-52). The 6 other patients underwent abdominoperineal resection (APR) for persistent APCD. Three of the 11 patients with normal bowel continuity underwent secondary APR for APCD recurrence. Thus, at the end of follow up 9 (53%) patients had definitive end ileostomy and 8 (47%) continued to have normal bowel continuity with a mean follow up of 124 +/- 90 months (range 12-292) after stoma closure. The presence of rectal lesions at the time of FD was the only predictive factor of poor outcome: 8/9 (89%) patients with rectal lesions underwent APR vs 1/8 (13%) patients without rectal lesion (P < 0.01). Faecal diversion for anoperineal Crohn's disease produced a high initial rate of anoperineal lesion healing. After long-term follow-up, results of faecal diversion are good (normal bowel continuity was restored in 89%) in patients without associated rectal lesions. However, in patients with associated rectal lesions, the prospects for restoring continuity were limited, thus making faecal diversion a questionable procedure.

CYSTECTOMY FOR BLADDER CANCER: A CONTEMPORARY SERIES

To validate the current TNM staging system, we analyzed our contemporary experience with 300 cystectomies. The pathological material and medical records of 300 patients treated with cystectomy were reviewed, and the new TNM classification was adopted. The median followup of patients with no evidence of disease was 65 months, and overall survival rate was 45% with a median survival of 50 months. In a Cox regression analysis only patient age, pT stage and neoadjuvant chemotherapy were significant factors for survival. The disease specific survival was 67% with a median survival of 94 months. In a multiple proportional hazards analysis only pT stage and previous chemotherapy were significant factors of disease specific survival. A significant difference was seen in the overall and disease specific survival between patients with organ confined and nonorgan confined tumors. We did not observe a difference in the survival rate among patients with pT4a to pT3 tumors. Significant differences were not seen in survival rates between sexes or among patients of different age groups. Transitional cell carcinoma was the predominant histological type, and no significant difference was found in patient outcome among the different histological subtypes. Bladder cancer can be categorized into organ confined and nonorgan confined tumors. This dichotomous grouping is better suited for evaluating adjuvant clinical trials. The pT stage of the bladder and prostate should be prospectively analyzed together to better define the clinical implications of prostatic involvement. In our opinion the histological subtypes do not affect outcome.

Biological prognostic factors for early stage completely resected non-small cell lung cancer

The different and unpredictable outcomes in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer patients requires urgent research concerning the biological pathway of this neoplasm. Our study investigated the frequency of expression and the clinicopathologic and prognostic significance of a series of biological markers in stage I and II resected non-small cell lung cancer. A total of 99 cases of pathologic stage I and II were analyzed. The mean follow-up of surviving patients was 41 months. The expressions of the following biological markers were tested: bcl-2, p53, Ki-67, angiogenesis, and tumor vessel invasion. Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival and time to recurrence were calculated for clinical variables and biological markers using Cox's model for multivariate analysis. Tumoral vessel invasion was present in 22 (22%) pathologic samples, the angiogenesis mean value was 37 +/- 13, and median was 35; 13 (13%) patients showed positive immunostaining for bcl-2 oncoprotein. P53 oncoprotein expression was present in 48 patients (48.5%). All samples presented Ki-67 expression (mean value = 25.3 +/- 19.3, median = 20). The pathologic staging of the tumor was the most important independent prognostic factor for survival (P = 0.037) and for recurrence of disease (P = 0.040). Tumoral vessel invasion was the only marker with an independent predictive factor for survival and recurrence of disease in the group of patients without lymph node involvement (P = 0.02). Our data do not support a relevant prognostic role for p53, bcl-2, or Ki-67 immunohistochemical markers in non-small cell cancer. Tumor vessel invasion was an independent predictive factor of poor outcome in the group of patients without lymph node involvement. Pathological stage was confirmed as the most important independent prognostic factor.

Clinical profiles predictive of outcome in pontine hemorrhage

We reviewed predictive factors of poor outcome in pontine hemorrhage in 38 patients admitted to the neurological-neurosurgical intensive care unit. Twenty-one patients died within days of admission (55%). Nine patients were severely or moderately disabled and dependent on others for daily care (24%). Eight patients made a good recovery (21%). Death was significantly more common in patients with a history of hypertension, coma on admission, absent motor response, absent corneal reflex or oculocephalic responses. However, clinical and CT features observed only in patients who died were hyperthermia (core temperature > 39 degrees C), tachycardia (> 110 beat/min), CT evidence of extension into the midbrain and thalamus, and acute hydrocephalus on admission. Good recovery only occurred in patients who were alert on admission and had small unilateral pontine hemorrhages. These clinical profiles should be useful in determining the level of care and future resuscitative efforts.

Treatment outcome and prognostic factors for primary mediastinal (thymic) B-cell lymphoma: a multicenter study of 106 patients.

To define clinicopathologic features, response to treatment, and prognostic factors of primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (MBL), a CD20+ tumor recognized as a distinct entity among non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL). One hundred six patients presented with disease confined to thorax (86%), bulky mediastinum (73%), superior vena cava syndrome (47%), and contiguous infiltration (57%). Ninety-nine received doxorubicin-containing chemotherapy (CHT). Thirty-five of 99 patients were primarily CHT-resistant, and 64 responded: 23 achieved complete response (CR) and 41 achieved response with residual mediastinal abnormality. Seventy-seven percent of responders received mediastinal radiotherapy (RT). Of 64 responders, 18 (28%) relapsed: none of 23 CR patients and 18 of 41 (44%) with residual mediastinal abnormality. Relapse-free survival rate of responders was 71% at 3 years. Actuarial 3-year survival rate was 52% for all patients and 82% for responders. Predictive factors of poor outcome were identified by logistic regression; Cox survival analysis was performed on death and relapse. Pericardial effusion (P < .001) and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status > or = 2 (P = .009) predicted nonresponse (NR) and affected survival. Less than partial midway response to CHT predicted NR to subsequent therapies. Bulky disease was related to persistent mediastinal abnormality and risk of relapse (P = .025). MBL is an aggressive NHL with unique clinicopathologic aspects, often refractory to current CHT designed for high-grade NHL. Poor performance status and pericardial effusion predict NR and poor survival. Inadequate response after the first courses of front-line CHT predicts failure of subsequent treatment. Responders with bulky mediastinum or residual mediastinal abnormality after CHT are at risk of relapse. These factors should help to select high-risk patients for intensive treatments.

Lupus Nephritis in Thailand: Clinicopathologic findings and outcome in 569 patients

The prognosis of lupus nephritis patients in Thailand has been reported to be poorer than that in Western countries since 1978. After a great evolution in management, we re-evaluate the long-term outcome in patients who were treated and followed up at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok from 1984 to 1991. Clinical and pathologic records were collected from 569 patients (515 females and 54 men) who were followed up for a mean period of 38.7 ± 34.6 months. The mean age was 28 ± 10 years and the median duration of symptoms prior to admission was 7 months. Hypertension was diagnosed in 32.4% of patients and 41.3% had serum creatinine greater than 1.5 mg/dL. Nephrotic-range proteinuria was found in 43.6% of patients and creatinine clearance less than 50 mL/min was found in 58.0%. Of the 314 patients who underwent renal biopsy, the most common histologic finding was diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis (61.5%). The overall probability of survival was 76.5% at 60 and 90 months after diagnosis. Initial presence of hypertension, renal insufficiency (creatinine clearance <25 mL/min), and World Health Organization histology class IV and III in the biopsied patients were the three independent factors significantly associated with lower survival probability. Neither gender nor amount of proteinuria was the predictive factor for poor outcome. During the follow-up period, 89 patients died and two patients entered a chronic dialysis program. The two leading causes of death were infection (50.5%) and uremia (28.6%). This study shows that the outcome of lupus nephritis in Thailand is much improved and almost equivalent to that in other countries reported since 1986. Greater awareness and more precise diagnosis of renal abnormalities in systemic lupus erythematosus, better supportive care, including treatment of extrarenal complications, and more appropriate use of immunosuppressive drugs should all be considered as factors related to improvement in the survival rate in this study.

Quantification of midline shift as a predictor of poor outcome following head injury

A retrospective study of patient outcome, based on admission computed tomography, was carried out in 75 consecutive patients with head injury. Computed tomography data collected included the type and extent of intracranial hemorrhage, the extent of midline shift, and the ratio of midline shift compared with the extent of intracranial hemorrhage. Midline shift was considered to be out of proportion to intracranial hemorrhage when the midline shift of the septum pellucidum exceeded the extent of the hemorrhage as measured radially from the inner table of the skull. When computed tomography data were analyzed by logistic regression, significant predictive factors for poor outcome were intracranial hemorrhage (34%), intracranial hemorrhage with midline shift (61%), and midline shift out of proportion to the extent of intracranial hemorrhage (88%). When patient outcome and mortality rates are considered, our study indicates that midline shift out of proportion to the extent of intracranial hemorrhage is a highly useful predictor of poor patient outcome following head injury.