Predictive Factors Of In-hospital Mortality Research Articles

364 Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality in pulmonary embolism

364 Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality in pulmonary embolism

Tuberculosis unit: study of 10 years of activity (1999–2009)

SettingThe Pulmonology Service of a Central Hospital in Lisbon created a Unit dedicated to the treatment of tuberculosis (TB). ObjectivesCasuistic analysis and assessment of the predictive factors for in-hospital mortality, over a 10-year period. DesignRetrospective study, from April 1999 to September 2009, through the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences application for binary logistic regression. ResultsIn a total of 1917 patients, most were male (n=1450; 76%), Caucasian (76.6%), with an average age of 43±15.2 years, and 19.8% were immigrants. The retreatments were responsible for 26% of the hospitalizations. The presence of comorbidities was detected in 85.7%, particularly HIV infection (34.7%). The multidrug-resistant (MDR) and the extensively drug resistant (XDR) TB occurred in 6.6% and 6.8%, respectively. The average delay was 28.5±54.8 days, with the mortality rate at 8.6%. The mortality risk was more significant amongst men (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.16–2.90; p<0.01), in patients with HIV infection (OR 3.7; 95% CI 2.47–5.49; p<0.001), and amongst those who presented MDR TB (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.24–5.15; p<0.01) and XDR TB (OR 5.5; 95% CI 3.14–9.58; p<0.001). ConclusionA high percentage of patients presented comorbidities, namely HIV infection. The main factors associated with mortality were HIV infection, XDR TB and MDR TB.

Unidade de Tuberculose: Casuística de dez anos de actividade (1999-2009)

Introduction The Pulmonology Service of a Central Hospital in Lisbon created a Unit dedicated to the treatment of tuberculosis (TB). Objectives Casuistic analysis and assessment of the predictive factors for in-hospital mortality, over a 10-years period. Material/Methods Retrospective study, from April 1999 to September 2009, through the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences application for binary logistic regression. Results In a total of 1917 patients, most were male (n = 1450; 76%), Caucasian (76.6%), with an average age of 43 ± 15.2 years, and 19.8% were immigrants. The retreatments were responsible for 26% of the hospitalizations. The presence of comorbidities was detected in 85.7%, particularly HIV infection (34.7%). The multidrug-resistant (MDR) and the extensively drug resistant (XDR) TB occurred in 6.6% and 6.8%, respectively. The average delay was 28.5 ± 54.8 days, with the mortality rate at 8.6%. The mortality risk was more significant amongst men (OR 1.8; 95%CI 1.16-2.90; p < 0.01), in patients with HIV infection (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.47-5.49; p < 0.001), and amongst those who presented MDR TB (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.24-5.15; p < 0.01) and XDR TB (OR 5.5; 95%CI 3.14-9.58; p < 0.001). Conclusions A high percentage of patients presented comorbidities, namely HIV infection. The main factors associated with mortality were HIV infection, XDR TB and MDR TB.

Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage: Predictive Factors of In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Treated in the Medical Intensive Care Unit

This prospective, cohort study assessed the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage admitted to the medical intensive care unit (MICU) at the University Clinical Centre Maribor, Slovenia. Using univariate, multivariate and logistic regression methods the predictors of mortality in 54 upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage patients (47 men, mean ± SD age 61.6 ± 14.2 years) were investigated. The mean ± SD duration of treatment in the MICU was 2.8 ± 2.9 days and the mortality rate was 31.5%. Significant differences between nonsurvivors and survivors were observed in haemorrhagic shock, heart failure, infection, diastolic blood pressure at admission, haemoglobin and red blood cell count at admission, and lowest haemoglobin and red blood cell count during treatment. Heart failure (odds ratio 59.13) was the most significant independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. Haemorrhagic shock and the lowest red blood cell count during treatment were also important independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality.

Mortality Predictors in ST-Elevated Myocardial Infarction Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

The use of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in primary treatment of acute myocardial infarction is still debated. We evaluated the predictors of mortality in patients undergoing primary CABG for ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI). Between January 2003 and January 2008, all patients referred to our institution with STEMI who did not qualify for primary angioplasty and required CABG were included in this study. Survivors and nonsurvivors were compared retrospectively in terms of demo-graphics, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative characteristics. Preoperatively confirmed cases of STEMI (n = 150) were included in the analysis. There were 114 survivors and 36 nonsurvivors. In-hospital mortality rate was 22%. In Cox regression analysis age, cardiogenic shock (Killip ≥3), preoperative cardiac troponin levels, preoperative use of intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation (IABP), previous myocardial infarction, and percutaneous coronary intervention were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. After multivariate analysis, factors predicting in-hospital mortality were age, preoperative cardiac troponin levels, and preoperative IABP. Age, preoperative cardiac troponin levels, and preoperative IABP use were predictive factors of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing primary CABG for STEMI.

Early Predictive Factors of Inhospital Mortality in Patients With Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Early Predictive Factors of Inhospital Mortality in Patients With Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Can Comprehensive Stroke Centers Erase the ‘Weekend Effect’?

Background: Prior epidemiological work has shown higher mortality in ischemic stroke patients admitted on weekends, which has been termed the ‘weekend effect’. Our aim was to assess stroke patient outcomes in order to determine the significance of the ‘weekend effect’ at 2 comprehensive stroke centers. Methods: Consecutive stroke patients were identified using prospective databases. Patients were categorized into 4 groups: intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH group), ischemic strokes not treated with IV t-PA (intravenous tissue plasminogen activator; IS group), acute ischemic strokes treated with IV t-PA (AIS-TPA group), and transient ischemic attack (TIA group). Weekend admission was defined as the period from Friday, 17:01, to Monday, 08:59. Patients treated beyond the 3-hour window, receiving intra-arterial therapy, or enrolled in nonobservational clinical trials were excluded. Patient demographics, NIHSS scores, and admission glucose levels were examined. Adverse events, poor functional outcome (modified Rankin scale, mRS, 3–6), and mortality were compared. Results: A total of 2,211 patients were included (1,407 site 1, 804 site 2). Thirty-six percent (800/2,211) arrived on a weekend. No significant differences were found in the ICH, IS, AIS-TPA, or TIA groups with respect to the rate of symptomatic ICH, mRS on discharge, discharge disposition, 90-day mRS, or 90-day mortality when comparing weekend and weekday groups. Using multivariate logistic regression to adjust for site, age, admission NIHSS, and blood glucose, weekend admission was not a significant independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality in all strokes (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.74–1.63, p = 0.631). Conclusions: Our results suggest that comprehensive stroke centers (CSC) may ameliorate the ‘weekend effect’ in stroke patients. These results may be due to 24/7 availability of stroke specialists, advanced neuroimaging, or ongoing training and surveillance of specialized nursing care available at CSC. While encouraging, these results require confirmation in prospective studies.

Valor pronóstico de un episodio de peritonitis bacteriana espontánea en pacientes cirróticos en la práctica clínica

To assess survival and predictive factors of mortality after an episode of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in cirrhotic patients and to analyze the diagnostic and therapeutic measures used. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 158 consecutive episodes of SBP treated between January 2003 and December 2005. Survival was studied by Kaplan-Meier curves, compared by the log-rank test. Independent predictive factors of mortality were obtained by a Cox regression model, while independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality were obtained by logistic regression analysis. A total of 80.4% of the SBP episodes occurred in men and the mean age was 61.23 +/- 12.49 years. The most frequent etiology of cirrhosis was viral (51.3%), followed by alcoholic (39.9%). The distribution of Child-Pugh classification was 5.7% (A), 63.3% (B) and 31% (C). Overall 3-year survival in the sample was 43.3%. Four variables were identified as independent predictive factors of in-hospital and 3-month mortality: renal impairment, hepatic encephalopathy, diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) < 75 mmHg. At the end of the monitoring period, the results of the analysis were as follows: diagnosis of HCC, MAP < 75 mmHg, and age > 65 years. Microbiological detection was achieved in 21% of the episodes. The most frequent microorganisms detected were Escherichia coli in ascitic fluid and Staphylococcus aureus in blood cultures. SBP has a poor short- and long-term prognosis in cirrhotic patients. Independent predictive factors of short-term survival are renal impairment, hepatic encephalopathy, MAP < 75 mmHg, and the presence of HCC.

Use of non-invasive mechanical ventilation in the Emergency Department, clinical outcomes and correlates of failure

Background: Despite several studies having been carried in this organizational context, there is an absence of information about the effectiveness of non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) in Emergency Departments (ED), based on a number of suitable patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) of different aetiology. In particular, it has not yet been defined as to whether the context of the ED suits the necessary requirement of quality for the correct application of the method and if the obtained results are different from those taken in other studies in general or respiratory intensive care unit. Finally there are few data related to the predictive factors to NIV failure (endotracheal intubation, in-hospital mortality) when applied in the emergency setting. Methods: To answer these questions we have retrospectively studied a population of 210 patients (95 with COPD exsacerbation ; 92 with acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema; 23 with severe community acquired pneumonia) treated for ARF in the “critical area” of four Italian level II Emergency Departments. For all patients demographic data; some comorbidities (diabetes, dementia, sopraventricular arrhythmias, obesity); the physiological scores (Kelly, SAPS II, Apache II); the need for pharmacological sedation; vital and blood gas parameters (evaluated at entry, after one hour of treatment and before its suspension); the ventilatory modality applied (CPAP or PSV + PEEP) and some parameters of in-hospital stay (duration of the hospitalization in the critical area, duration of ventilation, compliance to the treatment, patient's refusal to continue it, development of skin necrosis, need for endotracheal intubation, in-hospital mortality) were considered. Finally demographic, event of death with Cox regression or to the need for ETI through linear regression analysis. Results: Globally, in-hospital mortality reached 13,3%, the percentage of failure with consequent endotracheal intubation amounted to 10,4% . Considering the single aetiologic groups in the patients with COPD, exsacerbation mortality and ETI percentage were 12,6% and 13,7% respectively; in ACPO patients these data respectively amounted to 3,3% and 4,3%; while for patients with severe CAP they respectively reached 34,7% and 21,7%. The following factors were independently correlated with in-hospital mortality: SAPS II &gt; 35, presence of dementia for COPD patients; SAPS II &gt; 35; presence of dementia, presence of sopraventricular arrhythmias for ACPO patients; SAPS II &gt; 35, presence of sopraventricular arrhythmias, presence of dementia for CAP patients. Considering the whole population of 210 patients, the predictive factors of in-hospital mortality were the following: SAPS II &gt; 35; presence of dementia; presence of sopraventricular arrhythmias; maintenance of a respiratory rate above 24 bpm during tratment. The following were factors independently correlated with the need for endotracheal intubation: male gender, pH &lt; 7,32, respiratory rate &gt; 24 bpm, mean arterial pressure &gt; 96 mmHg, all measured at one hour of treatment, for COPD patients; male gender sex, pH &lt; 7,32 , respiratory rate &gt; 24 bpm, PaCO2&gt; 54,5 mm Hg all measured after one hour treatment for ACPO patients. Given the low number of patients, it was not possible to perform the logistic regression and to calculate the matrix of covariance of the parameter for the CAP group. Considering the whole series of patients, the factors independently correlated to ETI resulting in the following: male gender; diagnosis of COPD; pH &lt; 7,32, respiratory rate &gt; 24 bpm, mean arterial pressure &gt; 96 mm Hg, PaCO2 &gt; 54,5 mm Hg, all measured after one hour treatment. Conclusions: In conclusion, our study shows that NIV is racticable in the ED with safety and clinical results I T A L I A N J O U R N A L O F P U B L I C H E A L T H JPH - Year 6, Volume 5, Number 3, 2008 T H E M E P A P E R S 1 9 9

Prognostic factors in pulmonary tuberculosis requiring mechanical ventilation for acute respiratory failure

The prognosis in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation is believed to be poor. The aim of this study was to identify factors contributing to in-hospital mortality in these patients. The medical records of 32 patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis as a primary cause of acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation in the medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital over a 10-year period were reviewed retrospectively, and predictors of mortality were assessed. The patients' median age was 69 years (range 25-88 years). The median length of intensive care unit stay was 11 days (range 2-88 days), and the median duration of mechanical ventilation was 9 days (range 2-86 days). Overall in-hospital mortality was 59% (19/32). Independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality included tuberculous-destroyed lungs (hazard ratio 6.61, 95% CI: 1.21-36.04, P = 0.029), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores > or =20 (hazard ratio 4.90, 95% CI: 1.43-16.80, P = 0.012) and sepsis (hazard ratio 5.84, 95% CI: 1.63-20.95, P = 0.007). Acute respiratory failure caused by pulmonary tuberculosis necessitating mechanical ventilation has a high mortality rate and poor prognosis, particularly in patients with tuberculous-destroyed lungs, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores and sepsis.

Outcomes and Prognostic Factors for Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia that Requires Mechanical Ventilation

BackgroundCommunity-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a common and serious condition worldwide. The mortality from severe CAP remains high, and this has reached 50% in some series. This study was conducted to determine the mortality and predictors that contribute to in-hospital mortality for patients who exhibit CAP and acute respiratory failure that requires mechanical ventilation.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 85 patients with severe CAP as a primary cause of acute respiratory failure, and this required mechanical ventilation in a setting of the medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary university hospital between 2000 and 2003.ResultsThe overall in-hospital mortality was 56% (48/85). A Cox-proportional hazard model revealed that the independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality included a PaCO2 of less than 45 mmHg (p<0.001, relative risk [RR]: 4.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.16-10.33), a first 24-hour urine output of less than 1.5 L (p=0.006, RR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.29-4.66) and a high APACHE II score (p=0.004, RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.16).ConclusionsAcute respiratory failure caused by severe CAP and that necessitates mechanical ventilation is associated with a high mortality rate. Initial hypercapnia and a large urine output favored survival, whereas a high APACHE II score predicted mortality.

In-Hospital Outcome According to the Initial Management and the "Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score" of Acute Non-ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background and Objectives: The current guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy for patients suffering with non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). However, there is still debate about the timing of revascularization in patients with NSTEMI. To analyze the clinical efficacy of the timing of revascularization, we compared the in-hospital clinical outcome of NSTEMI patients from the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR) between the early and selective invasive therapeutic groups. Subjects and Methods: Between Nov. 2005 and Apr. 2007, 2762 acute NSTEMI patients (mean age=64.6±12.8 years, 1847 males) were enrolled in the KAMIR. The therapeutic strategy of NSTEMI was categorized into early invasive treatment (within 48 hours, Group I mean age: 63.1±13.1 years, 1085 males) and selective invasive treatment (Group II mean age: 66.5±12.1 years, 762 males). The initial clinical status and the in-hospital mortality and morbidity rate were compared between these two groups. The in-hospital outcomes were also compared between the two groups according to each level of the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score. Results: There were significant differences in the mortality and morbidity rate between the groups (6.5% vs. 10.3%, respectively, p<0.001). According to TIMI risk score, there were no significant differences of mortality and morbidity for the low to moderate risk patients (5.3% vs. 7.8%, respectively, p=0.123 for the risk score 0-2, 6.4% vs. 8.7%, p=0.139 for the risk score 3-4). Conclusion: Early invasive treatment improves the hospital outcome for the high-risk NSTEMI patients. The use of abciximab, a low ejection fraction, a high Killip class, a high TIMI risk score and old age are the predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and morbidity. (Korean Circ J 2007;37:550-558)

Surgical mortality score: risk management tool for auditing surgical performance.

Existing methods of risk adjustment in surgical audit are complex and costly. The present study aimed to develop a simple risk stratification score for mortality and a robust audit tool using the existing resources of the hospital Patient Administration System (PAS) database. This was an observational study for all patients undergoing surgical procedures over a two-year period, at a London university hospital. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictive factors of in-hospital mortality, the study outcome. Odds ratios were used as weights in the derivation of a simple risk-stratification model-the Surgical Mortality Score (SMS). Observed-to-expected mortality risk ratios were calculated for application of the SMS model in surgical audit. There were 11,089 eligible cases, under five surgical specialties (maxillofacial, orthopedic, renal transplant/dialysis, general, and neurosurgery). Incomplete data were 3.7% of the total, with no evidence of systematic underreporting. The SMS model was well calibrated [Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic: development set (3.432, p = 0.33), validation set (6.359, p = 0.10) with a high discriminant ability (ROC areas: development set [0.837, S.E.=0.013] validation set [0.816, S.E. = 0.016]). Subgroup analyses confirmed that the model can be used by the individual specialties for both elective and emergency cases. The SMS is an accurate risk- stratification model derived from existing database resources. It is simple to apply as a risk-management, screening tool to detect aberrations from expected surgical outcomes and to assist in surgical audit.

Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality in older patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit.

To identify prognostic factors that are independently predictive of in-hospital mortality in older patients hospitalized in a medical intensive care unit (MICU). Prospective cohort study. A MICU in an Italian university hospital. Patients aged 65 and older consecutively admitted to the MICU directly from the first-aid unit. Upon admission, the following variables were examined: demographics, clinical history (diabetes mellitus, active neoplasm, cognitive impairment, immobilization, pressure ulcers, use of nutritional support, home oxygen therapy), physiopathology (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II), and cognition/function (activity of daily living (ADL), instrumental activity of daily living (IADL), Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ)). The vital status of the patient at the end of hospitalization was recorded. Over a period of 10 months, 659 patients were recruited (mean age +/- standard deviation = 76.6 +/- 7.5; 352 men and 307 women). There were 97 deaths (14.71%). The following factors proved to be significantly associated with in-hospital mortality: old age, low body mass index (BMI) values, low values of albumin, high scores on APACHE II, functional impairment (ADL, IADL), cognitive impairment (SPMSQ), history of cognitive deterioration, history of confinement to bed, and presence of pressure ulcers. Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were independently predictive of in-hospital mortality: lack of independence in ADLs (P <.001), moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment on SPMSQ (P <.001), score on APACHE II (P =.002), and low BMI values (P =.031). The prognosis of older patients hospitalized in medical intensive care units depends not only on the acute physiological impairments, but also on a series of preexisting conditions, such as loss of functional independence, severe and moderate cognitive impairment, and low BMI.

Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery.

To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age > or = 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema nico de Sa de - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age > or = 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age > or = 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

Predictive Factors of In-Hospital Mortality in 986 Consecutive Patients with First-Ever Stroke

The aim of this study was to determine predictors of in-hospital mortality in 986 consecutive first-ever stroke patients by means of a multivariate analysis. In a first predictive model based on 13 de

Prognostic significance of maximal precordial St-segment depression in right (V 1 to V 3) versus left (V 4 to V 6) leads in patients with inferior wall acute myocardial infarction

This study examines whether patients with inferior wall acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and maximal ST-segment depression in left precordial leads are at higher risk for in-hospital mortality. The charts of patients (n = 213) with inferior wall AMI and an initial electrocardiogram that displayed peaked, tall T waves or ST-segment elevation with upright T waves in inferior leads were reviewed, after excluding patients with inverted T waves in inferior leads (n = 75). ST-segment deviation from baseline was measured for all leads. Patients were classified into 3 types: I = no precordial ST-segment depression; II = sum of ST-segment depression in leads V 1 to V 3 equal to or more than the sum of ST-segment depression in leads V 4 to V 6; and III = maximal precordial ST-segment depression in leads V 4 to V 6. Thirty-six patients (17%) died in the hospital. In-hospital mortality rates for patients with types I and II were 12% and 10%, respectively, compared with 41% for those with type III (p < 0.0001). Mortality rates in surviving patients were similar for all types up to 1 year after infarction. Multivariate logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality by ST-segment depression type adjusted for age, previous AMI, diabetes mellitus, and thrombolytic therapy revealed that type III pattern was a strong predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio = 4.9, p = 0.0008, 95% confidence interval 1.93 to 12.26). Thus, patients with inferior wall AMI and maximal precordial ST-segment depression in leads V 4 to V 6 are at high risk for in-hospital mortality.

Insights derived from the Thrombolysis and Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (TAMI) trials

In the first three phases of Thrombolysis and Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (TAMI) multicenter trials, 708 patients received intravenous recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rt-PA) and underwent detailed assessment of clinical, angiographic and ventriculographic outcomes. The cumulative experience and data base afford the opportunity to address several important questions regarding aggressive therapy of myocardial infarction. These include predictive factors of in-hospital mortality, improvement of left ventricular function and the occurrence of recurrent ischemia.Consideration of practical issues, such as thrombolytic therapy for patients with cardiopulmonary resuscitation or previous stroke, use of coronary artery bypass surgery and the effect of operator experience on angioplasty success rate, has also been made possible. The major accomplishments as well as the deficiencies of the current approach to patient management after thrombolysis are reviewed, and the new TAMI trials currently underway are discussed.