Prediction Of Varices Research Articles

Reliability of splenic stiffness in prediction of variceal bleeding and high-risk varices in non-cirrhotic portal fibrosis (NCPF)

Reliability of splenic stiffness in prediction of variceal bleeding and high-risk varices in non-cirrhotic portal fibrosis (NCPF)

Development and Validation of a Noninvasive Model for the Detection of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Unresectable HCC

Background and AimsNon-invasive variceal risk stratification systems have not been validated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which presents logistical barriers for patients in the setting of systemic HCC therapy. We aimed to develop and validate a non-invasive algorithm for the prediction of varices in patients with unresectable HCC. MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study in 21 centers in the US including adult patients with unresectable HCC and Child Pugh A5-B7 cirrhosis diagnosed between 2007 and2019. We included patients who completed an esophagogastroduodonoscopy (EGD) within 12 months of index imaging but prior to HCC treatment. We divided the cohort into a 70:30 training set and validation set, with the goal of maximizing negative predictive value (NPV) to avoid EGD in low-risk patients. ResultsWe included 707 patients (median age 64.6 years, 80.6% male and 74.0% White). Median time from HCC diagnosis to EGD was 47 (IQR: 114) days, with 25.0% of patients having high-risk varices. A model using clinical variables alone achieved a NPV of 86.3% in the validation cohort, while a model integrating clinical and imaging variables had an NPV 97.4% in validation. The clinical and imaging model would avoid EGDs in over half of low-risk patients while misclassifying 7.7% of high-risk patients. ConclusionA model incorporating clinical and imaging data can accurately predict the absence of high-risk varices in patients with HCC and avoid EGD in many low-risk patients prior to the initiation of systemic therapy, thus expediting their care and avoiding treatment delays.

Use of non-invasive scales for detecting esophageal varices in paediatric patients with portal vein thrombosis

IntroductionPortal vein thrombosis (PVT) is the most frequent cause of portal hypertension in paediatric population. Baveno VI Consensus considers endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) as the second therapeutic option after Meso-Rex bypass (surgical shunt). AimAnalyse the diagnostic profitability of non-invasive scales in order to predict the risk of esophageal varices (OV) in children with PVT. Materials and methodsDescriptive retrospective study where every upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE) carried on patients <15 years old with non-cirrhotic PVT were included. There were divided according to the presence of OV and sex, cause, age, previous gastrointestinal bleeding or treatments, results of UGE and scales (Clinical Prediction Rule-CPR), Varices Prediction Rule-VPR), King’s Variceal Prediction Score-K-VaPS) and Platelet count / Spleen diameter Ratio-PSR). Qualitative variables were expressed as absolute frequency and percentage, and quantitative variables as median and intercuartilic range. U Mann–Whitney and Hanley–McNeil tests were used for comparisons. Results45 UGE were analysed. 80% (n = 36) presented OV: median of 3(2–3) and 33,3%(n = 12) required EVL. Statistical differences were demonstrated between both groups: CPR (142,39 (132,22–166,53) vs. 122,75 (115,24–133,15); p = 0,003), VPR (9,91 (9,36 – 11,75) vs. 5,6 (3,34–8,39) p = 0,001), K-VaPS (117,86 (99,66–126,58) vs. 99,64 (94,88–110,18) p = 0,019), PSR (2384,62 (1902,22–3201,63) vs. 1252,5 (579,6–2144,42) p = 0,05), with and area under the curve AUROC > 75%, without statistical differences between scales. ConclusionsIn paediatric patients with non-cirrotic PVT non-invasive scales can be used as a tool to predict the presence of OV and raise the indication of UGE.

Simple Scoring System for Esophagogastric Varices Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients without Liver Stiffness Evaluation

Introduction: For predicting esophagogastric varices (EGVs), the Virtual Baveno VII Consensus Workshop has proposed a combination of liver stiffness determination and platelet count measurement using a FibroScan^®. However, FibroScan^® is not available at all institutions. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to predict development of EGV using only general blood examination results. Materials and Methods: A total of 1,090 hepatocellular carcinoma patients were enrolled, after excluding 956 with major portal vein tumor thrombus (Vp3/Vp4) or without upper gastrointestinal endoscopy examination results available. Those with EGV (≥ grade F2) or a history of treatment for the condition were defined as positive for significant EGV, and then clinical factors were retrospectively evaluated to determine indicators of occurrence. Results: Logistic multivariate analysis showed platelet count (≤12 × 10⁴/μL) (odds ratio [OR] 3.79, p < 0.001), mALBI grade 2a (OR 1.52, p = 0.036), and mALBI 2b or 3 (OR 3.46, p < 0.001) as significant predictive factors. Based on the OR values, platelet count (≤12 × 10⁴/μL) and mALBI grade 2b/3 were each assigned 2 points and mALBI 2a was given 1 point, with the result termed recommendation for EGV screening (REGS) score. Significant EGV occurrence was noted in 2.9% (9/311) of the patients with a REGS score 0, 11.0% (13/118) with a score 1, 19.3% (53/274) with a score 2, 29.5% (39/132) with a score 3, and 38.0% (97/255) with a score 4 (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The findings indicate that REGS score can provide useful predictive information for development of significant EGV without the need for special equipment such as a FibroScan^®.

Utilización de escalas no invasivas en la detección de varices esofágicas en pacientes con trombosis venosa portal

IntroductionPortal vein thrombosis (PVT) is the most frequent cause of portal hypertension in paediatric population. Baveno VI Consensus considers endoscopic variceal ligation as the second therapeutic option after meso-Rex bypass (surgical shunt). AimAnalyse the diagnostic profitability of non-invasive scales in order to predict the risk of oesophageal varices (OV) in children with PVT. Material and methodsDescriptive retrospective study where every upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE) carried on patients <15 years old with non-cirrhotic PVT were included. There were divided according to the presence of OV and sex, cause, age, previous gastrointestinal bleeding or treatments, results of UGE and scales (Clinical Prediction Rule – CPR), Varices Prediction Rule – VPR), King's Variceal Prediction Score – K-VaPS) and Platelet count/Spleen diameter Ratio – PSR). Qualitative variables were expressed as absolute frequency and percentage, and quantitative variables as median and interquartile range. U Mann–Whitney and Hanley–McNeil tests were used for comparisons. ResultsForty-five UGE were analysed. 80% (n=36) presented OV: median of 3 (2–3) and 33.3% (n=12) required endoscopic variceal ligation. Statistical differences were demonstrated between both groups: CPR (142.39 [132.22-166.53] vs. 122.75 [115.24-133.15]; p=0.003), VPR (9.91 [9.36-11.75] vs. 5.6 [3.34-8.39]; p=0.001), K-VaPS (117.86 [99.66-126.58] vs. 99.64 [94.88-10.18]; p=0.019), PSR (2384.62 [1902.22-3201.63] vs. 1252.5 [579.6-2144.42]; p=0.05), with and area under the curve AUROC>75%, without statistical differences between scales. ConclusionsIn paediatric patients with non-cirrotic PVT non-invasive scales can be used as a tool to predict the presence of OV and raise the indication of UGE.

SAT-557 - MELD 3.0 score in prediction of varices and comparison with its previous versions in patients undergoing esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy for variceal screening or band ligation

SAT-557 - MELD 3.0 score in prediction of varices and comparison with its previous versions in patients undergoing esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy for variceal screening or band ligation

Serum Ammonia Levels as a Non-invasive Predictor of the Presence and Severity of Esophageal Varices in Chronic Liver Disease Patients.

Background Portal hypertension leads to the formation of portosystemic collateral veins, of which esophageal varices (EV) are the most severe complications and have the greatest clinical impact. The possibility of identifying cirrhotic patients with varices by non-invasive tests is appealing, as they can lead to reduced healthcare costs and can be done in resource-limited settings. In this study, we investigated ammonia as a potential non-invasive predictor of EV. Methods This was a single-center cross-sectional observational study that was done at a tertiary health care hospital in north India. It included 97 chronic liver disease patients irrespective of etiology after excluding patients with portal vein thrombosis and hepatocellular carcinoma to participate in endoscopic screening for the presence of EV and correlate it with various non-invasive markers like serum ammonia levels, thrombocytopenia and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI ). On the basis of endoscopy, enrolled patients were divided into two groups, i.e., group A consisting of large varices (grade III and grade IV) and group B consisting of patients with low-grade varices and no varices (grade II, grade I, and no varices). Results This study included 97 patients, out of which 81 patients have varices on endoscopy, and mean serum ammonia levels were found to be significantly higher in cases with varices (135 ±69.70 ) vs. those without varices (94±43) (p value=0.026). Further, on comparing serum ammonia values between patients with large varices (Grade III/IV) (Group A) with a mean value of 176 ± 83vs. Grade I/II/No varices (Group B) with a mean value of 107±47, which were significantly higher in Group A patients (<0.001). In our study, we also found a correlation between blood urea level as a non-invasive predictor of varices, but no statistically significant relation was found between thrombocytopenia and APRI. Conclusion This study found that serum ammonia can be used as a useful marker for the prediction of EV and can also be used to determine the severity of varices. Apart from ammonia, serum urealevels can also prove to be a good non-invasive marker for the prediction of varices although further multicentric studies are warranted to reach this conclusion.

Age, Sex, and Body Mass Index Should Be Considered When Assessing Spleen Length in Patients with Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

We investigated the factors related to spleen length and the diagnostic accuracy of a model using spleen length corrected by related factors, for the prediction of varices needing treatment (VNT). Various prediction models for VNT including spleen length were analyzed in the cohort of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), defined as liver stiffness (LS) ≥10 kPa in a recent study. The associated factors for spleen length were identified in healthy subjects to improve the prediction of VNT. Among 1,218 cACLD patients, VNT was noted in 249 patients (20.4%). On multivariate analysis, longer spleen length, lower platelet count, and higher LS value were independent predictors for VNT (all p<0.001). In multivariate analysis of 1,041 healthy subjects, age (β=-0.027), sex (β=0.762), and body mass index (β=0.097) were found to be significant factors for spleen length (all p<0.001). Using the β values, the estimated spleen length was calculated. To improve the prediction of VNT, the ratio of measured and estimated spleen length was calculated. Based on binary regression analysis results, the LS value-spleen ratio to platelet score (LSRPS) was calculated as follows: 0.027×LS value (kPa)+2.690×measured/estimated spleen ratio-0.011×platelet count (cells×109/L)-4.215. The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the LSRPS for VNT was 0.820, which was significantly higher than 0.797 of LS value-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score (LSPS) (p=0.006). Spleen length is influenced by age, sex, and body mass index in the Asian population. The LSRPS using the measured/estimated spleen ratio had higher diagnostic accuracy than LSPS in predicting VNT in patients with cACLD.

Validation of the EVendo score for the prediction of varices in cirrhotic patients.

Screening endoscopy for varices may be deferred when the calculated EVendo score is ≤3.90. This novel score has not been validated in an external cohort. This study aimed to assess the performance of the EVendo score and compare it with the Baveno VI criteria. We identified and calculated this score in all cirrhotic patients who underwent screening endoscopy for the first time with laboratory tests and liver stiffness measurements within 6 months of the endoscopy date. In total, 103 patients were included. An EVendo score of ≤3.90 identified patients with no gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and varices needing treatment (VNT) with sensitivities of 82% and 83% and specificities of 57% and 34%, respectively. The negative predictive value for VNT was 94%. A comparison with the Baveno VI criteria in Child-Turcotte-Pugh-A patients showed spared endoscopy and missed VNT rates with EVendo score cutoffs of ≤3.9 and ≤4.5 and the Baveno VI criteria of 25%, 33%, and 16.6% and 1.7%, 1.7%, and 0%, respectively. EVendo score is reliable in clinical practice for predicting GEV and VNT. The number of spared endoscopies was higher than that with the Baveno VI criteria; however, there were more missed VNT cases.

Non-Invasive Prediction Models for Esophageal Varices and Red Signs in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Cirrhosis.

Background: Red signs are closely related to esophageal variceal bleeding, and, despite improvements in therapy, the mortality rate remains high. We aimed to identify non-invasive predictors of esophageal varices and red signs in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis. Methods: This retrospective study included 356 patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria among 661 patients. All patients underwent endoscopy, ultrasonography, laboratory examinations, and computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed, and prediction models for esophageal varices and red signs were constructed. Results: Multivariate analysis revealed that spleen diameter, splenic vein diameter, and lymphocyte ratio were independent risk factors for esophageal varices and red signs. On this basis, we proposed two models: i) a spleen diameter-splenic vein diameter-lymphocyte ratio-esophageal varices prediction model (SSL-EV model); and ii) a spleen diameter-splenic vein diameter-lymphocyte ratio-red sign prediction model (SSL-RS model). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the two prediction models were 0.843 and 0.783, respectively. With a cutoff value of 1.55, the first prediction model had 81.3% sensitivity and 76.1% specificity for esophageal varices prediction. With a cutoff value of −0.20, the second prediction model had 72.1% sensitivity and 70.7% specificity for the prediction of red signs. Conclusions: We proposed a new statistical model, the spleen diameter-splenic vein diameter-lymphocyte ratio-red sign prediction model (SSL-RS model), to predict the presence of red signs non-invasively. Combined with the spleen diameter-splenic vein diameter-lymphocyte ratio-esophageal varices prediction model (SSL-EV model), these non-invasive prediction models will be helpful in guiding clinical decision-making and preventing the occurrence of esophageal variceal bleeding.

P-118 NONINVASIVE PARAMETERS OF PREDICTORS OF ESOPHAGEAL VARICES (EV) IN CHILDREN WITH INTRAHEPATIC PORTAL HYPERTENSION

Children with portal hypertension (PH) are at risk for variceal bleeding. The standard test for screening varices is endoscopy, an invasive method. Evaluate noninvasive parameters of predictors of esophageal varices (EV) in children with intrahepatic portal hypertension. This cross-sectional study included 168 children with no history of GI bleeding who underwent the first screening endoscopy for EV (mean age: 8.3+-4.7 years). Patients were classified into two groups: G1: Child-Pugh A and G2: Child-Pugh B and C. The noninvasive methods assessed were: 1) platelet count; 2) spleen size; 3) spleen size z score; 4) platelet count/spleen size ratio; 5) platelet count and spleen size z score ratio; 6) platelet count and equivalent adult spleen size ratio; 7) APRI; 8) CPR; 9) Risk score and 10) King's variceal prediction score. Continuous variables were expressed as the median and interquartile range (25%-75%) and compared using the Mann-Whitney test. The distribution of variables was analyzed through the chi-square test, with Fisher exact test, 2tailed. ROC curve analysis was used to calculate diagnostic accuracy as areas under the curve (AUROC); 95%confidence intervals (CI). The significance was considered when P<0.05. The incidence rate of EV was: G1 49.4% (44/89) and G2 64.6% (51/79) (OR 1.86-95% CI 1.001-3.47). The significant predictor of EV for G1was the Risk score: OR 0.813 (95% CI 0.723-0.903) and for G2, platelet count/spleen size z score: OR 0.849 (95% CI 0.756-0.943). The noninvasive predictors of EV varied according to the severity of the disease. The Risk Score forecasted EV in children Child A. Platelets/spleen size predicted EV in children Child B and C.

Soluble CD163 for Prediction of High-Risk Esophageal Varices and Variceal Hemorrhage in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Introduction: Activation of hepatic macrophages in liver disease is pathogenically related to portal hypertension (PH). Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is shed in blood by activated macrophages and may predict PH progression noninvasively. This study was designed to investigate the relation of serum sCD163 to the grade and bleeding risk of esophageal varices (EV) and its role for prediction of variceal hemorrhage (VH). Methods: The study included cirrhotic patients divided into 3 groups: patients who presented with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) proved to originate from EV on endoscopy, patients without any history of UGIB but who revealed EV on surveillance endoscopy, and patients without endoscopic evidence of varices. Variceal grade and risk signs and bleeding stigmata were noted simultaneously with measurement of serum sCD163 concentration. Results: Serum sCD163 concentration showed a significant increase in cirrhotic patients compared to healthy subjects (p < 0.001) with a stepwise increase among the group without varices, nonbleeder group, and bleeder group sequentially. Serum sCD163 levels correlated positively with the variceal grade and risk signs in both the bleeder and nonbleeder groups (p = 0.002, p < 0.001 and p = 0.004, p < 0.001, respectively). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value of 3.6 mg/L performed significantly for prediction of EV presence (AUC = 0.888). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value >4 mg/L significantly predicted large-size and high-risk EV (AUC = 0.910 and AUC = 0.939, respectively) and the index bleed risk (AUC = 0.977). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value >4.05 mg/L modestly discriminated bleeding EV from those that had never bled (AUC = 0.811). Conclusions: Serum sCD163 levels accurately predicted high-grade and high-risk EV and could help plan for primary prophylaxis. However, it modestly identified VH occurrence, and endoscopy would be required to make a definitive diagnosis.

Evaluating the Value of the Genetic Risk Variants of Haem-Oxygenase-1, Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor-2 in Prediction of the Presence of Esophageal Varices in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Abstract Background: Current guidelines recommend screening for Esophageal Varices (EV) by Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) for all cirrhotic patients. The cost and invasive nature of endoscopic screening mean that there is an interest in developing noninvasive predictors for EV that would decrease the number of EGDs performed. The genetic factors that are involved in the development and maintenance of porto-systemic collateral circulation have been rarely investigated. Variation at the genes that encode proteins involved in the systemic and splanchnic vasodilation, which include angi-otensin-converting enzyme and endothelial/constitutive nitric oxide synthase, have been found to be involved in the EV risk among patients withcirrhosis. In cirrhosis, Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) receptor 2/VEGF and carbon monoxide (CO) activity are significantly increased and are closely correlated with porto-systemic collateral vasodilations. Haem-Oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is the main rate-limiting enzyme involved in CO production. Aim of Study: This study aimed at investigating the value of the genetic risk variants of HO-1, VEGF and VEGF Re-ceptor-2 (VEGFR-2) in prediction of the presence of EV in patients with liver cirrhosis. Patients and Methods: Our study included 300 Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis, aged 18 years or older, with no history of gastrointestinal bleeding, hepatic schistosomiasis, hepatocellular carcinoma, injection sclerotherapy or band ligation for EV, surgery for portal hypertension or portal or splenic vein thrombosis by ultrasonography. Patients underwent EGD to evaluate the presence and degree of EV, fibroscan for detection of liver stiffness and genetic investigation of HO-1, VEGF and VEGFR-2. Demographic, biochemical and endoscopic data were collected. Patients were divided into Group I (no varices), Group II A (small varices), Group IIB (large varices) and Group III (100 healthy control subjects).Results: All groups were age & BMI matched, platelet count and serum albumin were significantly lower in group II B compared to groups I & II A (p-value <0.001), while serum bilirubin level was significantly higher in group II B compared to groups I & II A (p-value <0.001). TT genotype SNP of HO-1 was associated with the presence of EV, while low grade varices were more detected in patients who carry AT genotype. Other genetic risk variants of VEGF and VEGFR-2 were not helpful in the prediction of EV or in the differen-tiation between small and large varices. Conclusion: Genetic risk variants of HO-1 genotype are helpful in prediction of EV as well as in differentiation between small and large varices. Combining these genetic variants to other noninvasive parameters will be a more sensitive and specific tool to predict EV in cirrhotic patients; it may help to select patients for endoscopic screening and decrease the number of EGDs. However, further studies will be needed from the economic point of view to determine the applicability of using these noninvasive tools as predictors of varices instead of EGD.

PLATELET COUNT AND SPLEEN DIAMETER RATIO FOR NON INVASIVE DIAGNOSIS OF ESOPHAGEAL VARICES

BACKGROUND: Portal Hypertension and its consequences mainly, Esophageal Varies (EVs) is one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis of liver. Upper GI endoscopy is the investigation of choice for diagnosis of EVs and periodic endoscopies have been recommended for monitoring of varices. There is a need for non-invasive parameters to detect the presence of EVs. Identication of noninvasive predictors of EVs will help us to carry out EGD in selected groups of patients. Unnecessary endoscopies can be avoided and at the same time, patients who require endoscopy can be referred to a higher center, where facilities for endoscopy are available. Among the non-invasive modalities, the platelet count and bipolar spleen diameter ratio has shown promising results in terms of its accuracy in predicting the presence of Esophageal Varices in many studies MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with chronic liver disease diagnosed using clinical, Laboratory and ultrasound parameters were assessed using esophagogastroduodenoscopy for the presence or absence of esophageal varices. USG abdomen was done to assess for bipolar splenic diameter and the presence or absence of EV's was correlated with the platelet count/ splenic diameter ratio, CHILD SCORE, MELD score, Platelet count alone and splenic diameter alone. Platelet count/SD ratio of 909 based on previous studies was correlated with the presence or absence of varices. Statistical analysis was done using IBM SPSS software version 20.0 and variables showing statistically signicant correlations with presence of arices were used for plotting ROC curves to assess the cut of points which could be used for non invasive prediction of varices. RESULTS: The PC/SD ratio cut off (909), based on previous studies for non invasive diagnosis of Esophageal Varices gave sensitivity and specicity of 97.9% and 91.7% respectively, in our study, which was statistically signicant (P value &lt;0.001). The positive predicitive value and negative predictive value of the PC/SD ratio (909) was 96.5% and 94.8% respectively and the accuracy of the test was 96%. ROC curve for Platelet count and Splenic diameter ratio area under the curve is 97.8% with P value &lt; 0.001 and cutoff value 895.02 with sensitivity 96.6% and specicity 96.5%. The Positive predictive value and negative predictive value of PC/SD ratio of 895 was found to be 98.6% and 91.8% respectively and the accuracy of the test 96.5%. ROC curve for Child score in our study, area under the curve 71% with a signicant P value &lt; 0.001, and cut-off value obtained for Child score was 8.50 with sensitivity 64.8% and specicity 63.8 %. ROC curve for MELD score revealed area under the curve was 74.3% with P value as &lt; 0.001, and the cut-off value was 15.5 with sensitivity 67.6 % and specicity 67.2%. ROC curve for Platelet count in our study, the area under the curve was 94.5% with P value as &lt; 0.001, and the cut-off value was 108500 with sensitivity and specicity of 89.7% and 89.4% respectively. The ROC curve for Spleen diameter in our study revealed that the area under the curve was 86.8%% with P value as &lt; 0.001, and the cutoff value was 121 with sensitivity and specicity of 78.9% and 81.0% respectively. CONCLUSION: Among the variables studied for non-invasive diagnosis of Esophageal varices, the Platelet count / Spleen diameter ratio had the best sensitivity and specicity for diagnosing EVs. In view of low sensitivities and specicities for the cut off values obtained for Child score, MELD score, platelet count and spleen diameter, these indices may not be useful as PC/SD ratio in the non-invasive prediction of EV's. The Platelet count / Splenic diameter ratio may be proposed as a safe parameter for diagnosing Esophageal Varices in Chronic Liver disease noninvasively, where resources are limited and endoscopy facilities are not available, to select the patients with probable Esophageal Varices who can be referred to higher centres

Derivation of “Egyptian varices prediction (EVP) index”: A novel noninvasive index for diagnosing esophageal varices in HCV Patients

IntroductionEsophageal Varices (EVs) is one of the major dangerous complications of liver fibrosis. Upper Gastrointestinal (UGI) Endoscopy is necessary for its diagnosis. Repeated examinations for EVs screening severely burden endoscopic units in terms of cost and other side implications; moreover, the lack of public health resources in rural areas and primary hospitals should be considered, particularly in developing countries. So, an accurate noninvasive marker for EV is highly needed for liver disease patients. ObjectivesThis study sought to evaluate the values of several indices to determine how adequate are they in predicting EV and build a novel accurate prediction index. MethodsFive thousand and thirteen patients were enrolled. The laboratory tests, abdominal ultrasonography, liver stiffness measurement using Fibro-scan, and UGI endoscopy were performed. Ten common indices: Fib-4 score, AST-to-platelet ratio index, Fibrosis index, AST/ALT ratio Varices Prediction Rule, Baveno VI, APRI-Fib4 Combo, King score, “Model for End-Stage Liver Disease”, and Lok Score were calculated. The significant predictors for EVs were identified by using “P-value Correlation-based Filter Selection” method, where a novel Egyptian Varices Prediction (EVP) index was developed using binary logistic regression. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by some parameters and the Area Under Curve (AUC). ResultsEVP Index was correlated to EVs at 0.5; it achieved higher performance (AUC 0.788, accuracy 73.3%, and sensitivity 78%) than the other indices at a cutoff point of 0.423. ConclusionEVP Index was a good noninvasive predictor. It had an acceptable performance for diagnosing EVs and it was only required regular laboratory tests and imaging data. It can provide a tool for classifying or arranging the patients according to the degree pre-emptive for selective endoscopy and the degree of severity. Also, it will enable clinicians to concentrate on one marker instead of a wide set of parameters.

Clinical and novel application of FibroScan, FIB-4 and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index in liver fibrosis evaluation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and their roles in oesophageal variceal prediction.

Non-invasive techniques for liver fibrosis diagnosis are very important for clinician especially in high-risk patients for liver biopsy. We further explored the diagnostic accuracy of FibroScan, FIB-4 and aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) in identifying liver fibrosis and assess their predictive role for oesophageal varices in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In total, 380 patients who underwent surgery for HCC were included based on retrospective study design. Liver fibrosis was pathologically diagnosed using the Ishak scoring system. Liver stiffness parameters were measured using FibroScan. APRI and FIB-4 were calculated. Among those, 121 patients who received oesophagogastroduodenoscopic examination underwent variceal evaluation. For liver cirrhosis diagnosis with FibroScan, the optimal cut-off values for the patients with HCC overall, left HCC and right HCC were 8.85, 11.75 and 8.70kPa (the accuracy were 78.7%, 78.4% and 79.2%, respectively). They had high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84, 0.84 and 0.85. The combined FibroScan, APRI and FIB-4 had very high specificity (more than 92%) for cirrhosis diagnosis. The optimal cut-off liver stiffness values for the diagnosis of varices were all 11.2kPa. For predicting varices, the optimal cut-off values of FIB-4 and APRI were 2.64 and 0.71, their accuracy were 64.3%-78.4%, 69.4% and 72.7%, respectively. FibroScan, FIB-4 and APRI have moderate accuracy for liver fibrosis diagnosis and oesophageal varices prediction in patients with hepatoma. This is a study of these non-invasive techniques applied in specific hepatoma patients and with inevitable limitations and need future more studies for validation.

Assessment of Spleen Stiffness for Prediction of Varices in Patients with Hepatitis C Related Cirrhosis Using Transient Elastography

Background and Study Aims: Portal hypertension is one of the most important complications of liver cirrhosis. The prevalence of varices among cirrhotic patients is variable. Therefore, endoscopic screening of all patients with liver cirrhosis would result in a large number of unnecessary additional burdens to endoscopic units. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of spleen stiffness measured by transient elastography (Fibroscan) for prediction of the presence of varices in patients with hepatitis C related cirrhosis.&#x0D; Patients and Methods: The study was carried out on 100 patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis and were divided into 2 groups according to presence or absence of varices by Esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy: Group I: patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis with varices; Group II: patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis without varices. Clinical and laboratory parameters, andominal ultrasonography, Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and transient elastography to assess the liver and spleen stiffness were carried out to all studied persons.&#x0D; Results: Spleen stiffness had significant diagnostic value to differentiate between cirrhotic patients with varices and cirrhotic patients without varices , it had significant diagnostic value in presence of esophageal varices at cut-off (≥46.4 K Pascal) the sensitivity for detection of esophageal varices was 93%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value (PPV) was 80%, negative predictive value (NPV) was 100%; accuracy was 95% and area under the curve was 0.98 denoting that spleen stiffness is a good predictor of esophageal varices.&#x0D; Conclusion: Spleen stiffness was considered as an excellent predictor of esophageal varices and better than liver stiffness in prediction of esophageal varices presence and had significant diagnostic value to differentiate between the patients with varices and patients without varices at cut off (≥46.4 K Pascal) and it may have a role in variceal grading.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Non-invasive Laboratory-Based Fibrosis Scores in Predicting the Presence of Esophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis

Introduction: Non-invasive assessment of esophageal varices (EVs) may reduce endoscopic burden and cost. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive fibrosis scores (AAR, APRI, FIB-4, King and Lok scores) for the prediction of varices in liver cirrhosis.&#x0D; Methods: This prospective study included 100 liver cirrhosis patients who underwent screening endoscopy for EVs. AAR, APRI, FIB-4, King and Lok scores were assessed. The receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were plotted to measure and compare the performance of each score for predicting EVs and to obtain the corresponding optimal prediction value.&#x0D; Results: Of the 100 patients, 70 were males and 30 were females with a mean age of 54.05±11.58 years. Esophageal varices were found in 77 patients out of which 58.44% were high-risk varices. Platelet count and non-invasive fibrosis scores APRI, FIB-4, Lok and King were able to discriminate patients with and without varices. Using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), these scores were found to have low to moderate diagnostic accuracy for the presence of EVs and high-risk EVs, where the APRI score had the highest AUROC (0.77 and 0.70) respectively. At a cutoff value &gt; 1.4, APRI score had 90.9% sensitivity, 60.9% specificity and 84 % diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of varices, while it had 84.4% sensitivity, 45.5% specificity and 63% diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of highrisk varices, at a cutoff value &gt; 2.02.&#x0D; Conclusion: APRI, AAR, FIB-4, King, and Lok scores had low to moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of varices in liver cirrhosis. The APRI score can help select a patient for the endoscopy but cannot replace endoscopy for esophageal varices screening.

Modeling Outcomes in Children With Biliary Atresia With Native Liver After 2 Years of Age.

Approximately 50% of infants with biliary atresia (BA) undergoing Kasai portoenterostomy show survival with native liver (SNL) at age 2 years. Predictors of disease progression after age 2 years are unknown, despite estimates of 20%‐30% undergoing liver transplant (LT) between age 2 and 18 years. We sought to address this knowledge gap by developing prognostic models in participants of the multicenter prospective National Institutes of Health‐supported Childhood Liver Disease Research Network. We extracted 14 clinical and biochemical variables at age 2 years to develop two models for future outcomes: 1) LT or death (LTD) and 2) first sentinel event (SE), either new onset ascites, hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS), or gastrointestinal (GI) bleed. A total of 240 participants, enrolled between 2004 and 2017, were followed until a median age of 5.1 years (range, 2.0‐13.3 years). Of these participants, 38 underwent LT (n = 37) or death (n = 1); cumulative incidence, 23.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.2%‐32.0%). Twenty‐seven experienced either new‐onset ascites (n = 13), HPS (n = 1), or GI bleed (n = 14). One participant had ascites and GI bleed concurrently; cumulative incidence, 21.5% (95% CI, 14.2%‐29.8%) by age 10 years. The Cox proportional hazard model predicted risk of LTD, using total bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, and history of either ascites or cholangitis (BA LTD model), with a C‐index of 0.88 (range, 0.86‐0.89). A cause‐specific hazard competing risk model predicted SE using platelet count and gamma glutamyltransferase levels (BA SE model) with a C‐index of 0.81 (range, 0.80‐0.84). Internal model validity was assessed using Harrell’s C‐index with cross‐validation. Conclusion: Stratification using these models identified risk of poor outcomes in patients with BA SNL after age 2 years. The models may identify those who would benefit from enhanced clinical surveillance and prioritization in clinical trials.

Poor performance of noninvasive predictors of esophageal varices during primary prophylaxis surveillance in biliary atresia

ObjectiveOur objective was to analyze performance of noninvasive markers for significant esophageal varices in relation to outcomes of endoscopic surveillance and primary prophylaxis in biliary atresia (BA). MethodsThis was a prospective follow-up study of a national cohort of BA patients born between 1989 and 2017, including 72 consecutive patients who underwent variceal surveillance endoscopies. The risk for developing significant varices (grade ≥ 2) and variceal bleeding was compared between successful (postoperative total bilirubin ≤34 μmol/L) and failed portoenterostomy (PE) patients. AUROC analyses and Wilcoxon signed ranks test were used to assess accuracy of noninvasive measures to predict the presence of significant varices after successful PE. ResultsIn total, 72 patients underwent 471 endoscopies during 427 follow-up years. Among 45 successful PE patients (63%), varices appeared later [at median age 1.6 (0.7–14) vs. 0.8 (0.4–1.9) years] and bled less often [7% vs. 41%, p < 0.001 for both] than after failed PE. Liver biochemistry, stiffness, and predictive scores showed poor accuracy for the presence of significant varices. After failed PE, lowered plasma albumin concentration predicted varices with an AUROC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.52–0.85, p = 0.030). After successful PE the varices prediction rule with AUROC 0.72 (95% CI 0.64–0.79) was the most accurate predictor. Individual predictors showed no meaningful changes between the two consecutive endoscopies leading to discovery of varices. ConclusionAccurate targeting of endoscopies based on noninvasive predictors remains difficult during primary variceal prophylaxis protocol in BA. The differing prognoses after successful and failed PE should be considered in variceal surveillance and future studies. Type of studyDiagnostic/prognosis study. Level of evidenceLevel II.