Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a significant threat to human health and sustainable economic development in coastal areas with the rapid pace of climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the response of SWI to climate change. However, most studies cannot reflect the direct impact of future climate change on groundwater salinity. This study first established the SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model after unifying both spatiotemporal computational units. Streamflow, groundwater level observation data, etc., were used to calibrate and validate the coupled model. And then SEAWAT model was loaded into the coupled model to form a new integrated model. Finally, precipitation of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (1–2.6 and 5–8.5 scenarios) was imported into the above calibrated integrated model separately to make SWI prediction from December 30, 2020, to December 30, 2030. The results show that this integrated model accurately reflected the study area's current flow and concentration field distribution. Precipitation under different ssps had little effect on future SWI, while the uncertainty of SWI prediction was mainly derived from different GCMs. This study provides important implications for exploring the occurrence and the prediction of SWI in the coastal aquifer. It has specific reference significance for the optimal management of water resources in coastal areas and the effective mitigation of SWI.
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