Prediction Of Natural Gas Consumption Research Articles

Predicting Ghana’s Daily Natural Gas Consumption Using Time Series Models

In recent years, natural gas utilisation has seen a considerable increase because, it presents an alternative energy source that is reliable, economical and environmentally friendly for consumers. In Ghana, natural gas consumption has over the years increased due to mainly the rise in industrial and residential demands. Accurate prediction of natural gas consumption will provide stakeholders with vital information needed for planning and making informed policy decisions. This paper explores the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) to predict Ghana's daily natural gas consumption. The data employed for the study is daily natural gas consumption in Ghana from 2020 to 2022. The results show that both ARIMA and SARIMA models can predict the consumption of natural gas in Ghana with a good degree of accuracy. The SARIMA model slightly outperforms the ARIMA model, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 22.25 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.96%, compared to an RMSE of 23.27 and a MAPE of 7.29% for the ARIMA model. The model forecast suggests a steady natural gas consumption in Ghana but with some intermittent fluctuations.

Natural Gas Consumption Monitoring Based on k-NN Algorithm and Consumption Prediction Framework Based on Backpropagation Neural Network

With increasing consumption of primary energy and deterioration of the global environment, clean energy sources with large reserves, such as natural gas, have gradually gained a higher proportion of the global energy consumption structure. Monitoring and predicting consumption data play a crucial role in reducing energy waste and improving energy supply efficiency. However, owing to factors such as high monitoring device costs, safety risks associated with device installation, and low efficiency of manual meter reading, monitoring natural gas consumption data at the household level is challenging. Moreover, there is a lack of methods for predicting natural gas consumption at the household level in residential areas, which hinders the provision of accurate services to households and gas companies. Therefore, this study proposes a gas consumption monitoring method based on the K-nearest neighbours (KNN) algorithm. Using households in a residential area in Xi’an as research subjects, the feasibility of this monitoring method was validated, achieving a model recognition accuracy of 100%, indicating the applicability of the KNN algorithm for monitoring natural gas consumption data. In addition, this study proposes a framework for a natural gas consumption prediction system based on a backpropagation (BP) neural network.

Natural gas consumption forecasting using an optimized Grey Bernoulli model: The case of the world’s top three natural gas consumers

The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is important for enhancing national energy security and alleviating the environmental problems caused by energy consumption. Starting with the traditional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model, in this paper, we expand the development coefficient a and grey action quantity b, propose a new self-adaptive time-varying grey Bernoulli prediction model, deduce the time response formula of the model, and explore the relationship between model parameters and model accuracy. Then, the nonlinear parameter and power parameter coefficient of the new model are optimized by a genetic algorithm, and the effectiveness of the model is analyzed by the natural gas consumption of China, the United States, and Russia. The results show that, compared with other traditional grey prediction models, the new model has a better simulation effect, higher prediction accuracy, and stronger applicability. Meanwhile, the model was used to forecast the natural gas consumption of China, the United States, and Russia in the period from 2022 to 2026. The prediction results show that China’s natural gas consumption will continue to steadily increase in the future, which is consistent with the global goal of adhering to the orderly development of natural gas. The prediction results can provide a theoretical basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant natural gas policies.

A Hybrid Model Based on Grey Wolf Optimizer and Lagrangian Support Vector Regression for European Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting

Natural gas plays an important role in industry as a clean energy, with the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, there is a large-scale energy shortage in Europe, and the natural gas supply in Europe has a natural gas crisis due to the cut-off of the Nord Stream No.1 pipeline. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the consumption of natural gas. In order to fulfill this requirement, this paper uses the Lagrangian Support Vector Regression model with Sorensen kernel based on the Nonlinear Auto-Regressive model and Grey Wolf Optimizer for 5-step forecasting of monthly natural gas consumption in all European countries. Under three time lags, comparing the 5-step predict results of GWO-LSVR with SVR, RF, LightGBM, XGBoost, and MLP, those five models’ hyperparameters also optimized by GWO, it found that GWO-LSVR has smallest MAPE in almost all cases, and the numerical results of MAPE generated by GWO-LSVR is from 5.844% to 11.622%, the smaller the forecasting step size, the better the effect. Moreover, compares the difference of GWO and WOA, it is found that GWO can obtained better model hyperparameters and smaller MAPE results. To sum up, the proposed GWO-LSVR model has strong generalization performance and robustness, and is a reliable natural gas consumption prediction model.

Predicting the monthly consumption and production of natural gas in the USA by using a new hybrid forecasting model based on two-layer decomposition.

As an efficient, economical, and clean energy, natural gas plays an important role in the development of the new energy revolution. Accurate prediction of natural gas consumption and production can adjust energy deployment in advance, which can ensure the stable operation of natural gas. Considering the complex and non-linear characteristics of natural gas production and consumption data, this paper develops a new hybrid forecasting model (WPD-VMD-LSTM) based on the fuzzy entropy, variational mode decomposition (VMD), wavelet packet decomposition (WPD), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). In this model, WPD and VMD undertake the tasks of primary and secondary decompositions, respectively; fuzzy entropy is used for the preprocessing process before the re-decomposition; and LSTM is used to predict the decomposed time series. In particular, the different criteria set by fuzzy entropy lead to the establishment of two prediction models. Then, two models are used to study monthly natural gas consumption and production in the USA. The results demonstrate that the proposed model performs significantly better than other comparable models and the target model has some practical value. Meanwhile, models may cope with different types of energy data, and models can accurately predict energy transformations with strong applicability, which can be applied to future energy forecasting in various fields. Finally, the constructed models are used to forecast the NGC and NGP in the USA in the next 3years and make reasonable policy recommendations based on the forecast results.

Model selection with decision support model for US natural gas consumption forecasting

Reliable prediction of natural gas consumption helps make the right decisions ensuring sustainable economic growth. This problem is addressed here by introducing a hybrid mathematical model defined as the Choquet integral-based model. Model selection is based on decision support model to consider the model performance more comprehensively. Different from the previous literature, we focus on the interaction between models when combine models. This paper adds grey accumulation generating operator to Holt-Winters model to capture more information in time series, and the grey wolf optimizer obtains the associated parameters. The proposed model can deal with seasonal (short-term) variability using season auto-regression moving average computation. Besides, it uses the long short term memory neural network to deal with long-term variability. The effectiveness of the developed model is validated on natural gas consumption due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. For this, the model is customized using the publicly available datasets relevant to the USA energy sector. The model shows better robustness and outperforms other similar models since it consider the interaction between models. This means that it ensures reliable perdition, taking the highly uncertain factor (e.g., the COVID-19) into account.

A knowledge-enhanced graph-based temporal-spatial network for natural gas consumption prediction

The accurate prediction of natural gas consumption plays a central role in long-distance pipeline system production and transportation planning, and it becomes even more important during present political situation. The existing prediction methods for natural gas consumption barely consider spatial correlations and domain knowledge. As a result, the study proposes a novel deep learning prediction method (knowledge-enhanced graph-based temporal-spatial network, abbreviated to KE-GB-TSN) for predicting natural gas consumption by integrating domain knowledge into association graph construction and capturing temporal-spatial features via a hybrid deep learning network. This study first applies the domain knowledge that analyses the operation technique of the natural gas pipeline network and combines the historical data to establish an association graph. Subsequently, the historical data and association graphs are input to a hybrid deep learning network to predict natural gas consumption. The comparative experiments are conducted by taking real-world cases of natural gas consumption as examples. At last, a sensitivity analysis of different components combination is carried out to exhibit the significance of each component in the proposed model. The results prove that the proposed model is capable of achieving more accurate and efficient predicted results compared to the advanced models, such as decision trees and gated recurrent units. The Mean Absolute Relative Errors and Root Mean Squared Relative Errors gotten by the proposed model are less than 0.11 and 0.14 in all cases, indicating an improvement compared to previous works. Additionally, it is also suggested that domain knowledge and temporal-spatial correlations are crucial for the excellent performance of the prediction model.

A hybrid deep learning framework for predicting daily natural gas consumption

Conventional time-series prediction methods for natural gas consumption mainly focus on capturing the temporal feature, neglecting static and dynamic information extraction. The accurate prediction of natural gas consumption possesses of paramount significance in the normal operation of the national economy. This paper proposes a novel method that resolves the deficiency of conventional time series prediction to address this demand via designing a hybrid deep learning framework to extract comprehensive information from gas consumption. The proposed model captures static and dynamic information via encoding gas consumption as matrices and extracts long-term dependency patterns from time series consumption. Subsequently, a customised network is proposed for information fusion. Cases from several different regions in China are studied as examples, and the proposed model is compared with other advanced approaches (such as long short-term memory (LSTM), convolution neural network long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM)). The mean absolute percentage error is reduced by a range of 0.235%–10.303% compared with other models. According to the comparison results, the proposed model provides an efficient time series prediction functionality. It is also proved that, after effectively extracting comprehensive information and integrating long-term information with static and dynamic information, the accuracy and efficiency of natural gas consumption prediction are greatly promoted. A sensitivity analysis of different modules combination is conducted to emphasise the significance of each module in the hybrid framework. The results indicate that the method coupling all these modules leads to significant improvement in prediction accuracy and robustness.

Short‐term natural gas consumption prediction based on wavelet transform and bidirectional long short‐term memory optimized by Bayesian network

AbstractIn the energy structure, natural gas is an important clean energy, and its consumption forecast is of great significance for energy policy formulation, pipeline network planning design, and peak shaving capacity determination. In the field of forecasting, wavelet transform (WT) is widely used to process time series, especially natural gas consumption. However, in the application of the WT, the wavelet's orders and levels are randomly fixed. To solve this problem, this study proposes a hybrid model, which is based on bidirectional long short‐term memory (BiLSTM). In addition, Bayesian networks are used to optimize the hyperparameters of BiLSTM. And the different wavelets' orders and levels are utilized to deal with the daily natural gas consumption (DNLGSCN). When each level of Coiflets wavelets' four and five orders are used to process the DNLGSCN, the fifth level of Coiflets wavelets' four and five orders have the highest prediction accuracy, respectively, which is 0.3318 and 0.1773, taking U1 as an example. Using Symflets wavelet to decompose the DNLGSCN also gives the same result. Compared with the decomposition method (e.g., ensemble empirical mode decomposition), the prediction performance of the above four wavelet decomposition methods is better. The main conclusions are that decomposing the DNLGSCN with the fifth level of Coiflets wavelet's five orders has the best prediction performance.

Predicting the production and consumption of natural gas in China by using a new grey forecasting method

Reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption and production in China is helpful for decision-makers formulate policies to solve the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas in China. Taking into account the data environment of China’s small sample, this paper considers using the grey prediction model with characteristic of small sample modeling to study the consumption and production of natural gas in China. To achieve accurate prediction, this paper developed a novel discrete fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with power term (DFNGBM(1,1, α)), and used the latest equilibrium optimizer to solve the hyper-parameters of the model. The proposed model has the advantages of most existing grey prediction models, such as fractional-order accumulation operation and time power term. In addition, the proposed model is a unified expression form of many other grey forecasting models. The consumption and production of natural gas in China from 2003 to 2020 are used as examples to verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed model compared with other competitive models that have been used to study natural gas. It turns out that the prediction ability of the proposed model is better than other models. Therefore, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model have been confirmed. Finally, the DFNGBM (1,1, α) model is used to predict China’s natural gas consumption and production in the next few years, and some corresponding recommendations are given based on the prediction results.

Forecast of natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region using a fractional-order incomplete gamma grey model

To forecast natural gas consumption more accurately, to clearly understand the future supply situation, and to optimize the allocation of resources, a new fractional-order accumulation-based incomplete gamma grey forecasting model is proposed in this paper. To further optimize the traditional grey action quantity, dynamic nonlinear action-based incomplete gamma functions are taken as the grey action quantity and combined with fractional-order accumulation. The role of new information is fully considered, and a detailed modeling process is presented, including computational steps and intelligent optimization algorithms. In this study, this new model is used to simulate and forecast natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region from 2008 to 2018. First, Bangladesh and the Philippines are taken as examples to show the error changes incurred by the model under the control of two parameters. Then, a simulation and prediction of natural gas consumption are conducted and compared with those of other traditional univariate grey models. The results show that the MAPE obtained by the new model is the lowest, which indicates the prediction accuracy and effectiveness of the model. This model has good prediction performance for natural gas consumption and can be extended to more energy consumption prediction problems.

The development trend of China’s natural gas consumption: A forecasting viewpoint based on grey forecasting model

In the context of global emission reduction, as a type of clean and eco-friendly energy, natural gas has attracted wide attention. Accurate prediction of natural gas consumption can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate the corresponding development plans and strategies. At present, there are many forecasting tools for processing and analysing natural gas consumption, but most of them have the disadvantages of complex modelling or low precision. In order to solve this problem, inspired by the polynomial regression prediction model and the discrete grey prediction model, a novel polynomial discrete grey prediction model with fractional order accumulation (abbreviated as FPDGM(1,1) model) is established in this paper. In order to find the optimal parameters of the FPDGM(1,1) model, three most popular intelligent algorithms are used to solve the parameters of the model, and then the optimal parameters from the three intelligent algorithms are selected in this paper. In addition, the advantages of the FPDGM(1,1) model over other four forecasting models are confirmed through two parts in this paper. First, the natural gas consumptions of four municipalities in China are used as cases to verify the effectiveness of the FPDGM(1,1) model in this paper. Subsequently, the FPDGM(1,1) model and several kinds of frequently used forecasting models are applied to analyse and predict China’s natural gas consumption, and the FPDGM(1,1) model is used to predict China’s natural gas consumption in the next 5 years. The results of these two parts indicate that the FPDGM(1,1) model shows the best predictive performance in all cases. Lastly, based on the predicted results of the FPDGM(1,1) model, some reasonable suggestions are put forward for China’s natural gas development plan.

Forecasting annual natural gas consumption via the application of a novel hybrid model.

Accurate prediction of natural gas consumption (NGC) can offer effective information for energy planning and policy-making. In this study, a novel hybrid forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM) and improved artificial fish swarm algorithm (IAFSA) is proposed to predict annual NGC. An adaptive learning strategy based on sigmoid function is introduced to improve the performance of traditional artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA), which provides a dynamic adjustment for parameter moving step step and visual scope visual. IAFSA is used to obtain the optimal parameters of SVM. In addition, the annual NGC data of China is selected as an example to evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed model. Experimental results reveal that the proposed model in this study outperforms the benchmark models such as artificial neural network (ANN) and partial least squares regression (PLS). The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) values are as low as 0.512, 1.4958, and 1.0940. Finally, the proposed model is employed to predict NGC in China from 2020 to 2025.

Combining STRIPAT model and gated recurrent unit for forecasting nature gas consumption of China

With the orderly advancement of China Energy Development Strategic Action Plan, clean energy has become a major trend in the energy market. As a major industry of clean energy, natural gas industry plans to consume at least 10% of the total primary energy by 2020. The energy structure will be improved in an orderly manner to achieve the goal of energy conservation, consumption reduction, and emission reduction. To achieve energy saving and emission reduction, and using clean energy effectively, accurate prediction of natural gas consumption is of great importance. Because of the many influencing factors affecting natural gas demand, this paper first utilizes STRIPAT to analyze the factors affecting natural gas consumption and then uses a deep learning ensemble approach to analyze and predict China’s natural gas consumption. One is an advanced deep neural network model named gated recurrent unit model which is used to model the nonlinear and complex relationships of natural gas consumption with its factors. The other is a powerful ensemble method named bootstrap aggregation which generates multiple data sets for training a set of base models. Our approach combines the advantages of these two technologies to forecast the demand for China’s natural gas market. In empirical research, our method has been tested by some competitive methods and has shown superiority.

Integration of weather forecast and artificial intelligence for a short-term city-scale natural gas consumption prediction

Ruled by the directives and regulations adopted by the European Commission, the European natural gas market is obliged to enable free competition. This process has just started in the Serbian market, and the national natural gas provider (Srbijagas) has started its restructuring. To attain the objective of natural gas market liberalization, it is essential to accurately plan capacities and make precise predictions of future peak consumption at all levels of trade. In this research, an hourly city-scale Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System algorithm with the Gaussian membership function is developed for both heating and non-heating regimes. In order to upgrade previous studies in this field, besides standard gas consumption and weather variables, hourly weather forecast and lower calorific value were added to the model. The model output is predicted hour-ahead natural gas consumption. To measure the predicting performance of the two models proposed in this research, the Coefficient of Determination and Mean Absolute Percentage Error were used. For the considered hourly consumption forecast of heating and non-heating models, the Coefficients of Determination were 0.99, while the overall (training, testing and checking) Mean Absolute Percentage Error values were 3.0% and 3.4% respectively. Based on these performance metrics, it can be concluded that for both models, the proposed algorithm resulted in a very satisfactory forecast. An adequate prediction of future natural gas consumption would support all market stakeholders, leading to the development a cleaner and sustainable energy system.

Nature-inspired hybrid techniques of IWO, DA, ES, GA, and ICA, validated through a k-fold validation process predicting monthly natural gas consumption

Current study aimed to combine the multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network technique with five metaheuristic computational algorithms, namely invasive weed optimization (IWO-MLP), dragonfly algorithm (DA-MLP), evolution strategy (ES-MLP), genetic algorithm (GA-MLP), and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA-MLP) for estimating the monthly natural gas consumption (NGC). For the case of this study, the NGC data was collected from the United States (U.S.) was chosen. To achieve this, a dataset composed of eight independent factors, namely, dry gas production, NGPL production, gross withdrawals, supplemental gaseous fuels, net storage withdrawals, marketed production, net imports, and balancing items, along with a dependent variable of natural gas consumption is provided. Out of 39 samples, a 3-fold ratio is taken to select the datasets of training and testing randomly. During the calculation phase, and through a trial and error procedure, the optimal parameters of the MLP, IWO-MLP, DA-MLP, ES-MLP, GA-MLP, ICA-MLP networks are taken into consideration. To assess the reliability of the proposed technique with the real collected data, three well-known statistical criteria, including mean square error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) as well as coefficient of determination (R²), are introduced. These indices help to measure the level of accuracy of the used models. It is found that the IWO can be a better predictive network comparing to other hybridized techniques reducing the error performance of the MLP method. The predicted results reveal that hybridizing optimization algorithms could improve the prediction accuracy and helps the MLP to perform more efficiently. The recorded in testing MSE for the IWO-MLP, DA-MLP, ES-MLP, GA-MLP, ICA-MLP prediction techniques (i.e., used for U.S. natural gas consumption estimation) were found 0.000013, 0.002358, 0.024744, 0.013244, and 0.048572, respectively. In the sense of U.S. natural gas consumption prediction, the training R2 value to 0.9999, 0.9996, 0.9971, 0.9996, and 1.0000 and testing R2 value of 0.9999, 0.9995, 0.9956, 0.9984, and 0.8115 show that the outputs of the ensemble models are more correlated with the real data.

Modeling Method of the Grey GM(1,1) Model with Interval Grey Action Quantity and Its Application

GM(1,1) is a univariate grey prediction model with incomplete structural information, in which the real number form of the simulation or prediction data does not conform to the Nonuniqueness Principle of Grey theoretical solution. In light of the network model of GM(1,1), the connotation of grey action quantity is systematically analyzed and the interval grey number form of grey action quantity is restored under uncertain influencing factors. A novel GM(1,1) model is then constructed. The new model has the basic characteristics of the grey model under incomplete information. Moreover, it can be fully compatible with the traditional GM(1,1) model. The developed model is employed to the natural gas consumption prediction in China, showing that its predicting rationality is much better than that of the traditional GM(1,1) model. It is worth mentioning that, for the first time, the grey property of GM(1,1) has been restored in structure, which is of significance for both academia and industry.

US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model

Natural gas (NG) is a vital energy in the energy structure transition, and its consumption prediction is a significant issue in energy structure management and energy security. As the second largest energy consumer and producer in the world, the status of NG in the United States (US) energy system has been increasing since the “An America First Energy Plan” was proposed in 2017. Accurate prediction of natural gas consumption (NGC) can provide an effective reference for decision-makers, policymakers, and energy companies. This paper proposes an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model (KNEA) to forecast NGC in the US. The grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to optimize the regularization parameter and kernel width in the KNEA model, and applies the hybrid model to the NGC datasets of different sectors (including lease and plant fuel usage, pipeline and distribution usage, residential users, commercial users, industrial users, vehicle fuels users, and power generation users) in the US. Compared with the prediction results of five benchmark models, it is shown that the GWO-KNEA model has the best performance in each dataset, and the range of mean absolute percentage error is less than 5%. By comparing the computational time and memory occupancy of the model, it can be concluded that the time and space complexity of the GWO-KNEA model is greater than that of the original KNEA model, but lower than that of other benchmark models. Moreover, this paper uses the newly proposed model to predict the NGC and consumption mix of the US from 2019 to 2025. The main conclusions are drawn: (1) NGC in the US will show a slow growth trend (the average annual growth rate is only 1.2%); (2) The proportion of NGC in power generation will increase significantly, reaching about 39% in 2025; (3) The proportion of residential, commercial and industrial NGC will decline slightly.

Short-term natural gas consumption prediction based on Volterra adaptive filter and improved whale optimization algorithm

Short-term natural gas consumption prediction is an important indicator of natural gas pipeline network planning and design, which is of great significance. The purpose of this study is to propose a novel hybrid forecast model in view of the Volterra adaptive filter and an improved whale optimization algorithm to predict the short-term natural gas consumption. Firstly, Gauss smoothing and C–C method is adopted to pretreat and reconstruct short-term natural gas consumption time series; secondly, to improve the performance of whale optimization algorithm, adaptive search-surround mechanism and spiral position and jumping behavior are introduced into it; Thirdly, Volterra adaptive filter is used to predict the short-term natural gas consumption, and the important parameters (e.g. embedding dimension) is optimized by improved whale optimization algorithm. Finally, an actual example is given to test the performance of the developed prediction model. The results indicate that (1) short-term natural gas consumption time series has chaotic characteristics; (2) performance of the improved whale optimization algorithm is better than some comparative algorithms (i.e. cuckoo optimization algorithm, etc. ) based on the different evaluation indicators; (3) exploration factor is the main operational factor; (4) the performance of the proposed prediction model is better than some advanced prediction models (e.g. back propagation neural network). It can be concluded that such an innovative hybrid prediction model may provide a reference for natural gas companies to achieve intelligent scheduling.

Natural gas consumption forecasting model based on coal-to-gas project in China

Natural gas is widely used because it is environmentally friendly, particularly in reducing carbon emission and improving the Air Quality Index(AQI) around densely populated cities. China has initiated a coal-to-gas project (CGP) to improve the air quality in northern China. As a subcompany of China National Petroleum Corporation, PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company has been focusing on natural gas resource allocation while considering numerous issues such as ensuring the bottom line of livelihood requirements in winter and the performance of economic indicators for an entire calendar year in the northern part of China. Therefore, the accurate prediction of natural gas consumption is important to PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company. It has become a challenge to forecast natural gas consumption because the natural gas market has changed considerably because of the CGP. Natural gas consumption cannot be forecasted using conventional models. This study analyzes the characteristics of the CGP based on the data obtained from rural individual users and company users. Based on the analysis, the gas consumption in winter is predicted using two different forecasting approaches. The methods presented in this paper provide a basis for formulating effective measures for natural gas scheduling in the northern part of China.