Natural gas consumption forecasting model based on coal-to-gas project in China

Abstract

Natural gas is widely used because it is environmentally friendly, particularly in reducing carbon emission and improving the Air Quality Index(AQI) around densely populated cities. China has initiated a coal-to-gas project (CGP) to improve the air quality in northern China. As a subcompany of China National Petroleum Corporation, PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company has been focusing on natural gas resource allocation while considering numerous issues such as ensuring the bottom line of livelihood requirements in winter and the performance of economic indicators for an entire calendar year in the northern part of China. Therefore, the accurate prediction of natural gas consumption is important to PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company. It has become a challenge to forecast natural gas consumption because the natural gas market has changed considerably because of the CGP. Natural gas consumption cannot be forecasted using conventional models. This study analyzes the characteristics of the CGP based on the data obtained from rural individual users and company users. Based on the analysis, the gas consumption in winter is predicted using two different forecasting approaches. The methods presented in this paper provide a basis for formulating effective measures for natural gas scheduling in the northern part of China.