Error Prediction Research Articles

IoT based Smart Weather Monitoring with Flood and Earthquake Detection

Weather monitoring is essential for understanding the changing climatic conditions. Traditional weather monitoring system are slow, labor intensive, and outdated, often prone to error and inaccurate predictions. To overcome these challenges and provide an up-to date weather information, the IoT (Internet of Things) has been implemented in weather monitoring. This research presents an IoT-based weather monitoring system integrated with sensors to ensure accurate weather monitoring, including flood and earth quake detection. The collected data, such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, rainfall, flood levels, and seismic activity, is transmitted through IoT protocols to a centralized repository (Cloud) and visualized in the Blynk App. Flood sensors are strategically positioned in flood-prone areas, continuously monitoring water levels to detect abnormal rises indicative of potential floods. Similarly, seismic sensors detect ground vibrations and seismic activity, providing early alerts for earthquakes. The proposed system offers a comprehensive approach to monitor the weather, contributing to enhanced preparedness and mitigation strategies for natural disasters.

Reflectance spectroscopy analysis and lithium content estimation in lithium-rich rocks and stream sediments: Insights from Tuanjie Peak, Western Kunlun, China

Lithium, a rare metal of strategic importance, has garnered heightened global attention. This investigation delves into the laboratory visible-near infrared and short-wavelength infrared reflectance (VNIR-SWIR 350 nm–2500 nm) spectral properties of lithium-rich rocks and stream sediments, aiming to elucidate their quantitative relationship with lithium concentration. This research seeks to pave new avenues and furnish innovative technical solutions for probing sedimentary lithium reserves. Conducted in the Tuanjie Peak region of Western Kunlun, Xinjiang, China, this study analyzed 614 stream sediments and 222 rock specimens. Initial steps included laboratory VNIR-SWIR spectral reflectance measurements and lithium quantification. Following the preprocessing of spectral data via Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing and continuum removal (CR), the absorption positions (Pos2210nm, Pos1910nm) and depths (Depth2210, Depth1910) in the rock spectra, as well as the Illite Spectral Maturity (ISM) of the rock samples, were extracted. Employing both the Successive Projections Algorithm (SPA) and genetic algorithm (GA), wavelengths indicative of lithium content were identified. Integrating the lithium-sensitive wavelengths identified by these feature selection methods, A quantitative predictive regression model for lithium content in rock and stream sediments was developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR), support vector regression (SVR), and convolutional neural network (CNN). Spectral analysis indicated that lithium is predominantly found in montmorillonite and illite, with its content positively correlating with the spectral maturity of illite and closely related to Al-OH absorption depth (Depth2210) and clay content. The SPA algorithm was more effective than GA in extracting lithium-sensitive bands. The optimal regression model for quantitative prediction of lithium content in rock samples was SG-SPA-CNN, with a correlation coefficient prediction (Rp) of 0.924 and root-mean-square error prediction (RMSEP) of 0.112. The optimal model for the prediction of lithium content in stream sediment was SG-SPA-CNN, with an Rp and RMSEP of 0.881 and 0.296, respectively. The higher prediction accuracy for lithium content in rocks compared to sediments indicates that rocks are a more suitable medium for predicting lithium content. Compared to the PLSR and SVR models, the CNN model performs better in both sample types. Despite the limitations, this study highlights the effectiveness of hyperspectral technology in exploring the potential of clay-type lithium resources in the Tuanjie Peak area, offering new perspectives and approaches for further exploration.

Analysis of risk influential factors of marine pilots during the embarkation and disembarkation

Due to the complex geographical conditions within the port waters, it is necessary to take pilotage operations. The embarkation and disembarkation (E&D) of marine pilots is the riskiest phase of pilotage work, with accidents occurring frequently. In order to examine the key Risk Influential Factors (RIFs) of E&D accident of marine pilots, in this study, a novel complex network model of RIFs of marine pilots during the E&D process is proposed. Firstly, based on the E&D accident investigation report of marine pilots, the causal chain of E&D accidents is extracted, and the RIFs leading to E&D accidents are identified. Secondly, a complex network model of RIFs of marine pilots during the E&D is constructed based on the complex networks theory, and the network reliability is verified. Finally, by comprehensive use of topology characteristics analysis, robustness analysis and module analysis, the key RIFs of pilot E&D accidents are identified. The research results show that pilot and management factors have important impact on pilot safety, ‘insufficient pilot ladder strength' is the most critical RIF. It should be focused on RIFs with high connectivity between modules and within modules, and the risk evolution can be blocked through the control of those RIFs. Abbreviations: BNs: Bayesian Networks; CDM: Critical Decision Method; DEMATEL: Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory; E&D: Embarkation and Disembarkation; FSA: Formal Safety Assessment; RIFs: Risk Influential Factors; RPD: Recognition-Primed Decision; SHERPA: Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach; SOLAS: International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea; VTS: Vessel Traffic Services; TECHR: Technique for Early Consideration of Human Reliability.

Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation and Mutual Information Gain

Information theoretic quantities such as entropy, entropy rate, information gain, and relative entropy are often used to understand the performance of intelligent agents in learning applications. Mean squared error has not played a role in these analyses, primarily because it is not felt to be a viable performance indicator in these scenarios. We build on a new quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, to establish that minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimation, prediction, and smoothing are directly connected to mutual information gain or loss in an agent learning system modeled by a Markov chain for many probability distributions of interest. Expressions for mutual information gain or loss are developed for MMSE estimation, prediction, and smoothing, and an example for fixed lag smoothing is presented.

Thermal error prediction and optimal design of cooling structure for oscillating head housing

The thermal error of machine tool has always been an important reason affecting the accuracy of machine tool. In modern methods to reduce thermal error, thermal error compensation method and thermal error isolation method are two methods with high operability. Thermal error compensation method emphasizes predicting deformation in advance and then compensating in advance. Thermal error isolation method emphasizes the reduction of numerical value in thermal error propagation path. In this paper, the machine tool swing head is taken as the research object, and the above two methods are innovatively combined; Build an experimental platform and a simulation model to ensure the accuracy of the experiment through mutual verification; The POA-LSTM prediction model is established to predict the expansion of the swing head shell structure caused by thermal load accumulation, and compared with the LSTM prediction model. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the POA-LSTM prediction model in Z direction and X direction is 98.89 % and 98.38 %, respectively, which is higher than that of LSTM's 89.33 % and 89.47 %. The experiment for shell structure optimization is designed to reduce the thermal expansion of the pendulum and improve the machining accuracy. As a result, the thermal expansion inhibition effect on the whole pendulum is 26.14 %, and the thermal expansion inhibition effects on the X-direction, Y-direction and Z-direction are 34.93 %, 33.35 % and 30.24 % respectively.

Correction: Gao et al. A Thermal Error Prediction Method of High-Speed Motorized Spindle Based on Pelican Optimization Algorithm and CNN-LSTM. Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 381

In the original publication [...]

Geometry accuracy control in abrasive water jet taper hole machining of ultra‐thick carbon fiber‐reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminates

AbstractThe primary factors affecting the geometric accuracy of abrasive water jet (AWJ) machining of ultra‐thick carbon fiber‐reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminates are the cutting front drag and kerf width deviation caused by energy dissipation. Firstly, this study comprehensively analyzes the influence of the coupling relationship between cutting front drag and kerf width deviation on the geometric accuracy of hole machining. Secondly, a gradient distribution theory for jet traverse speed with cutting depth is proposed for taper hole machining characteristics. Finally, a general geometric error model applicable to both straight and taper hole machining of ultra‐thick CFRP laminates using AWJ is established, along with a geometric error compensation method. A series of experiments validate the accuracy of the proposed geometric error model and compensation method. The novelty of this research lies in unifying the geometric error models for straight and taper hole machining of ultra‐thick CFRP laminates by considering the gradient distribution of jet traverse speed. The proposed error compensation method reduces the high degree of freedom required for machine tools. This study provides a general geometric error model and compensation strategy for AWJ hole machining of ultra‐thick CFRP laminates, which has significant engineering value for achieving 3D controllable AWJ machining of complex ultra‐thick CFRP components.Highlights The high geometric precision taper holes machining technique is a necessary prerequisite for achieving precise machining of complex trajectories in ultra‐thick CFRP with abrasive water jet. The influence of the coupling relationship between cutting front drag and kerf taper on the geometric accuracy of hole processing is comprehensively analyzed. A model considering the gradient distribution of traverse speed during taper holes machining was established, and a geometric error model considering this gradient distribution of traverse speed was developed. A taper holes machining geometric error compensation method with high engineering applicability was proposed. Geometric error prediction experiments and error compensation experiments were conducted, and the results proved the accuracy of the geometric error model and error compensation method.

Prediction and analysis of relative error in electric vehicle charging stations based on an improved ConvFormer model

In order to address the issue of metering inaccuracies in charging stations that directly affect the development of electric vehicles, a prediction method for the relative error of charging stations based on the ConvFormer model is proposed. The model combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with Transformer models in parallel, significantly improving the prediction accuracy. First, charging station data is preprocessed using forward interpolation and normalization methods, and the dataset is transformed into a dataset of input relative errors. Then, a neural network with an improved unidirectional convolutional and attention combination for time-series forecasting is constructed, and common regression performance evaluation metrics, MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), are selected for evaluation. Finally, based on seven days of charging station data, the relative error of charging stations for the next 24 h is predicted, and compared to traditional Transformer and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) time-series models. The results show that the improved model yields the lowest values for both MAE and MSE, with a 47.30 % reduction in MAE compared to the Transformer model and a 38.06 % reduction compared to LSTM, and a 66.94 % reduction in MSE compared to the Transformer model and approximately 62.32 % reduction compared to LSTM.

Analysis and compensation of kinematic errors in a five-axis machine tool based on an internal data-driven method

Abstract The increasing demand for highly efficient and precise machining in the aerospace industry is leading to increasingly stringent requirements for machine tool accuracy measurement and compensation technologies. However, existing methods can only measure the accuracy of machine tools after they have been shut down, using instruments that do not measure the kinematic errors during the machining process. To address this issue, a method for real-time prediction of kinematic errors in a five-axis machine tool has been proposed to enhance machining accuracy and efficiency. The method employs a neural network-based predictive model, which has been trained and validated through experimental testing and data collection using internal sensors of the machine tool. The study reveals that this predictive model can effectively forecast the kinematic errors, through real-time compensation, and can reduce errors by 60-86%, significantly enhancing machine performance.

Measurement error prediction of CVT based on DenseNet-GRU network

Measurement error prediction of CVT based on DenseNet-GRU network

Error prediction of VMD-GRU current transformer based on bayesian optimization

Error prediction of VMD-GRU current transformer based on bayesian optimization

An integrated optimization method for measurement points layout and error modeling for digital twin of CNC machine tools

Thermal error significantly influences the accuracy of precision computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools. The key to compensating thermal error lies in selecting appropriate temperature measurement points and establishing an accurate error prediction model. Traditional methods separate measurement points selection and prediction modeling, that is, selecting temperature measurement points first and then establishing the prediction model using these points. These methods are difficult to achieve optimal matching between measurement points and the prediction model, resulting in shortcomings in modeling accuracy. To address these challenges, an integrated optimization method for measurement points layout and error modeling for digital twin of CNC machine tools is proposed. A dual-stage attention-based long short-term memory combined with convolutional neural network (DA-CLSTM) error modeling method is proposed to accurately predict the thermal error for different numbers of temperature measurement points. Then, an integrated method of virtual-real temperature measurement points layout and error modeling is proposed, which ensures the temperature measurement points and the error prediction model are closely matched, offering rational sensors layout and high-accuracy prediction. Finally, experiments are conducted on the spindle system test bench to validate the method proposed in this research. Through integrated optimization of measurement points layout and the prediction model, the proposed method achieves high-accuracy thermal error prediction across various sensor counts and maintains reliable prediction ability when the number of sensors is reduced. This method is applied to a digital twin system of MKL7150 grinding machine, and effectively improves the accuracy of actual machining.

Deep learning‐based location prediction in VANET

AbstractIn recent years, Vehicular Ad‐hoc Network (VANET) has become an essential component of intelligent transportation systems that, along with the previous systems such as traffic condition, accident alert, automatic parking, and cruise control, use the communication of vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to the roadside unit to facilitate road transportation. Several challenges hinder efforts to improve traffic conditions and reduce traffic fatalities through VANET. A critical challenge is achieving highly accurate and reliable vehicle localization within the VANET. Additionally, the frequent unavailability of Global Positioning System (GPS), particularly in tunnels and parking lots, presents another significant obstacle. Traditional methods like Dead Reckoning offer low accuracy and reliability due to accumulating errors. Similarly, GPS positioning, map matching with mobile phone location services, and other existing solutions struggle with accuracy and economic feasibility. In this article, two Kalman filter approaches are used based on signal statistical information and the other learning‐based networks, including traditional neural network, deep neural network and LSTM (long short‐term memory) to locate the car. The prediction error of car position with root mean square measures. The squared error and distance prediction error are evaluated. It is shown that in terms of prediction time and processing time of vehicle localization, all the vehicle localization methods are efficient in terms of response time for localization, and Kalman filter methods, traditional neural network and deep neural network are faster than LSTM method. Also, in terms of localization error, Kalman filter works better than learning‐based methods, and in learning‐based methods, both deep neural network and LSTM methods perform better than traditional neural network in terms of localization error.

An Optimal Design Method for Lightweight Heating Film of Anisotropic Heat Conduction Substrate Based on Surrogate Model.

In space missions, heating films are crucial for uniformly heating onboard equipment for precise temperature control. This study develops an optimization method using surrogate models for lightweight anisotropic substrate thermal conductive heating films, meeting the requirements of uniform heating in thermal control for space applications. A feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) was employed to create a surrogate model, mapping design parameters to the temperature uniformity of the heating film. This model served as the basis for applying the NSGA-II algorithm to quickly optimize both temperature uniformity and lightweight characteristics. In this study, the PSO-BP surrogate model was trained using heating film thermal simulation data, and the surrogate model demonstrated an accurate prediction of the mean square error (MSE) of the predicted temperature difference within 0.0168 s. The maximum temperature difference in the optimal model is 1.188 ℃, which is 30.5 times lower than before optimization, and the equivalent density is only increased by 3.9%. In summary, this optimization design method effectively captures the relationships among various parameters and optimization objectives. Its superior computational accuracy and design efficiency offer significant advantages in the design of devices such as heating films.

An accurate and robust method for intensification of wastewater sludge pipe flow

Globally, environmental impacts and population growth are driving the process intensification of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) via transition from conventional (2–3 wt% solids) to highly concentrated (4–6 wt% solids) wastewater sludges (HCWS). This presents an industrial challenge as HCWS are complex, non-Newtonian materials whose viscosity increases nonlinearly with solids concentration. This viscosity increase is particularly relevant for sludge pipe flow as it leads to considerable pumping pressure that ultimately limits the feasibility of pipe flow transportation. Hence, process intensification demands accurate prediction of HCWS turbulent pipe flow to design and optimise pumping infrastructure and piping systems. Such prediction requires accurate rheological characterisation of HCWS and numerical prediction of HCWS turbulent pipe flow, neither of which has been achieved to date due to respective limitations associated with benchtop rheometry and numerical turbulence models. We address these challenges by first developing accurate methods for rheological characterisation of HCWS via laminar flow of digested sludge at various solids concentrations (2–5 %) in a fully instrumented pipe loop facility at a large-scale WWTP. These rheological parameters are used in direct numerical simulation (DNS) computations (that avoid turbulence models) of turbulent pipe flow of HCWS. These predictions are then validated against turbulent flow pipe loop data. This method yields accurate (2–15 % error) predictions of HCWS turbulent pipe flow, compared with up to ∼75 % error for conventional pipe flow correlations. This validation highlights the need for accurate rheological characterisation and numerical simulation to predict HCWS pipe flow and provides a sound basis for the intensification and optimisation of WWTP pipeline systems.

Evaluating Soluble Solids in White Strawberries: A Comparative Analysis of Vis-NIR and NIR Spectroscopy.

In recent years, due to breeding improvements, strawberries with low anthocyanin content and a white rind are now available, and they are highly valued in the market. Strawberries with white skin color do not turn red when ripe, making it difficult to judge ripeness. The soluble solids content (SSC) is an indicator of fruit quality and is closely related to ripeness. In this study, visible-near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectroscopy and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy are used for non-destructive evaluation of the SSC. Vis-NIR (500-978 nm) and NIR (908-1676 nm) data collected from 180 samples of "Tochigi iW1 go" white strawberries and 150 samples of "Tochigi i27 go" red strawberries are investigated. The white strawberry SSC model developed by partial least squares regression (PLSR) in Vis-NIR had a determination coefficient R2p of 0.89 and a root mean square error prediction (RMSEP) of 0.40%; the model developed in NIR showed satisfactory estimation accuracy with an R2p of 0.85 and an RMSEP of 0.43%. These estimation accuracies were comparable to the results of the red strawberry model. Absorption derived from anthocyanin and chlorophyll pigments in white strawberries was observed in the Vis-NIR region. In addition, a dataset consisting of red and white strawberries can be used to predict the pigment-independent SSC. These results contribute to the development of methods for a rapid fruit sorting system and the development of an on-site ripeness determination system.

Predicting error for machining thin-walled blades considering initial error

A multistage machining process is employed to machine the blades with low stiffness. Nonetheless, machining errors can be transferred and accumulate throughout the multistage machining process, complicating the precise prediction of the final accuracy of thin-walled blades. Consequently, this paper introduces a machining accuracy prediction model for thin-walled blades that takes into account initial error. The machining error prediction model of thin-walled blades is developed using Gaussian process regression optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA-GPR) with the initial contour error, depth of cut, feed per tooth, and spindle speed as inputs, and the machining error as the output. And the results show that the prediction accuracy of the SSA-GPR is 6.73 % higher than that of the Gaussian process regression (GPR), 13.73 % higher than that of the back propagation neural network (BPNN), and 32.32 % higher than that of the support vector machine regression (SVR). The influence of the initial error and milling parameters on the machining error is analyzed through the length-scales of the Gaussian kernel function. The findings indicate that the depth of cut, feed per tooth and initial error significantly affect the machining error, whereas the spindle speed has a minor impact on the machining error. Furthermore, the 3D graph based on the SSA-GPR shows that the increase of the initial error will increase the machining error of thin-walled blades. This research provides a theoretical foundation for the process optimization of thin-walled blades.

Relative error prediction from censored data under α-mixing condition

In this paper, we address the case of a randomly right-censored model when the data exhibit some kind of dependency. We build and study a new nonparametric regression estimator by using the mean squared relative error as a loss function. Under classical conditions, we establish the uniform consistency with rate and asymptotic normality of the estimator suitably normalized.

IOL calculation using six formulas in children undergoing lens extraction and primary IOL implantation with and without posterior optic capture.

To evaluate formulas for intraocular lens (IOL) calculation in children undergoing lens extraction and IOL implantation. Retrospective, consecutive case series at the Department of Ophthalmology, Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany. We included eyes that received lens extraction and IOL implantation (SN60AT, Alcon, Fort Worth, TX) due to congenital or juvenile cataract. Preoperative assessments included biometry (IOLMaster 500/700, Carl Zeiss Meditec, Germany). To evaluate the measurements, we compared the mean prediction error (MPE), mean and median absolute prediction error (MAE, MedAE) of six different formulas, and number of eyes within ± 0.5, ± 1.0, ± 2.0D of target refraction. Postoperative spherical equivalent was measured by retinoscopy 4-12 weeks after surgery. 66 eyes matched our inclusion criteria with a mean age of 6.3 years ± 3.2. MedAE was lowest in SRK/T (0.55D ± 1.08) followed by Holladay I (0.75D ± 1.00), EVO 2.0 (0.80D ± 0.89), Barrett Universal II (BUII, 0.86D ± 1.00), Hoffer Q (0.97 D ± 0.94), and Haigis (1.10D ± 0.95). Regarding eyes within ± 0.5D SRK/T (45.5.%, 30 eyes) performed best, followed by Holladay I (36.4%, 24 eyes), EVO 2.0 and BUII (each 34.8%, 23 eyes). There was a myopic shift seen in all formulas (MPE: -0.21 to -0.90D). Using modern formulas, or even AI formulas, for IOL calculation in children's eyes does barely improve predictability of the postoperative refraction. A myopic shift can be found for all formulas. However, specific formulas like SRK/T seem to better anticipate this.

Human error identification and risk assessment in loading and unloading of petroleum products by road trucks using the SHERPA and fuzzy inference system method

Human error constitutes one of the primary causes of accidents, particularly in the context of loading and unloading operations involving road trucks, especially those carrying petroleum products. The process of identifying and evaluating human errors within these operations involves several key steps. Initially, all sub-tasks associated with loading and unloading are meticulously identified and analyzed utilizing Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA), achieved through direct observation, document examination, and interviews. Subsequently, potential human error modes within each task are delineated using the Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach (SHERPA). Finally, essential data for determining the criticality, probability, and severity of each error are gathered through expert elicitation and the application of Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS).Through the analysis of SHERPA worksheets, a total of 37 errors during loading operations and 14 errors during unloading operations of petroleum products were identified. Among these errors, the predominant category during loading operations was action errors, comprising 31 instances, while communication errors were the least frequent, occurring only twice. Similarly, action errors were most prevalent during unloading operations, constituting 13 instances. These errors were further categorized and ranked based on their risk levels, resulting in 27 levels for loading operations and 12 levels for unloading operations.The consistent occurrence of action errors underscores the need for implementing control measures to mitigate their frequency and severity. Such strategies may include periodic training sessions to reinforce proper work procedures and the development of monitoring checklists, among other interventions.