Prediction Of Power Consumption Research Articles

Hybrid LSTM-Markovian model for greenhouse power consumption prediction: a dynamical approach

Hybrid LSTM-Markovian model for greenhouse power consumption prediction: a dynamical approach

Sustainable machining of Inconel 718 using minimum quantity lubrication: Artificial intelligence-based process modelling

Governments and industries are developing aggressive policies to reduce carbon emissions and shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. On the other hand, industries struggle to reduce energy consumption and depend on production lot sizes to control energy requirements. In this regard, energy-efficient processing through CNC machine tools can potentially influence energy demand and requires energy-aware power consumption strategies for machining processes. For manufacturing a single product, predicting energy demand can be decisive in determining parametric control and other factors. Previously analytical models have been largely used to model machining requirements and energy demand. However, these models largely depend on parameterization and do not facilitate the integration of external sub-systems. Therefore, in this paper, an artificial intelligence-based power reduction strategy is developed and implemented on single material (Inconel 718), four control parameters (cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut and flow rate) and two sub-systems (minimum quantity lubrication (MQL) and nanofluids-based minimum quantity lubrication (NF-MQL)). The paper employs four machine learning algorithms,’ K-Nearest Neighbor’, ‘Gaussian Regression’, ‘Decision Tree’, and ‘Logistic Regression’, to evaluate their functionality in predicting power consumption (Pc) of CNC machining systems using a real experimental data set. As per evaluation based on five performance metrics (R-square, MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MedAE), ‘Decision Tree’ has achieved the most accurate power consumption predictions. The comparative results highlight ‘Decision Tree’ as the most better predictor with the optimal max_depth of 2 showing Pc MQL R2 of 0.915 and Pc NF-MQL R2 of 0.931.

A whale optimization algorithm-based ensemble model for power consumption prediction

A whale optimization algorithm-based ensemble model for power consumption prediction

Forecasting Operation of a Chiller Plant Facility Using Data-Driven Models

In recent years, data-driven models have enabled accurate prediction of chiller power consumption and chiller coefficient of performance (COP). This study evaluates the usage of time series Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models to predict chiller power consumption and chiller COP of a water-cooled chiller plant. The 10-second measured data used in this study are from the Intelligent Building Agents Laboratory (IBAL), which includes two water-cooled chillers. Preprocessing, data selection, noise analysis, and data smoothing methods influence the accuracy of these data-driven predictions. The data intervals were changed to 30 s, 60 s, and 180 s using down-sampling and averaging strategies to investigate the impact of data preprocessing methods and data resolutions on the accuracy of chiller COP and power consumption models. To overcome the effect of noise on the accuracy of the models of chiller power consumption and COP, two data smoothing methods, the moving average window strategy and the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter, are applied. The results show that both methods improve the predictions compared to the baseline, with the SG filter slightly outperforming the moving average. Particularly, the mean absolute percentage error of the chiller COP and power consumption models improved from 4.8 and 4.9 for the baseline to 1.9 and 2.3 with the SG filter, respectively. Overall, this study provides a practical guide to developing XGBoost data-driven chiller power consumption and COP prediction models.

AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION ON NOVEL SEGMENTED OMNI WHEELED HYBRID MOBILE ROBOT TO ASSESS OBSTACLE CLIMBING CAPABILITY

Abstract This article introduces a novel quadrupedal hybrid mobile robot with a segmented omni wheel design capable of climbing obstacles of height greater than its wheel radius. The unique wheel design comprises of two parallel coaxial 240-degree segmented omni wheels per leg with independent offset angle control. The transformation from wheel to leg mode and vice versa can be seamlessly achieved by controlling the offset angle between the segmented omni wheels. A series of experiments are carried out to evaluate the robot's performance for obstacle climbing capability utilizing various wheel end effector designs, and a comparative analysis is presented. The results indicate that the obstacle climbing capability of segmented omni wheel design with zero offset angle is improved by 40.7% compared to standard wheel and the unique wheel design configuration facilitates seamless staircase climbing capability without any complex control scheme. In addition, statistical studies using Taguchi method and ANOVA are performed on the experimental findings. A linear regression model to predict power consumption has been developed and the significant factors influencing the robot's power consumption and stability are presented.

Prediction of power consumption and its signals in sustainable turning of PH13-8Mo steel with different machine learning models

Due to extensive distribution and huge demand of energy efficient processes, the energy-saving of machining processes draws more and more attention, and a significant variety of methods have evolved to prognosis or optimise the energy consumption in machining operations. Similarly, the estimation of power consumption-cutting conditions relationships is of great importance for optimizing processing costs and for cleaner machining. Compared to traditional methods, machine learning (ML) approach is one of the effective analysis options to model machinability indicators such as cutting force, tool wear, power consumption and surface quality. In this study, PH13-8Mo stainless steel was machined with coated carbide inserts using primarily Dry, MQL, nano-Graphene + MQL, nano-hBN + MQL, Cryo, Cryo + MQL cutting environments. Power consumption and its signals during milling were measured and different machine learning models were applied to estimate the Pc. To develop the Pc model based on the ML algorithm, 70% of the power consumption data is reserved for training and 30% for testing. In all cutting environments, power consumption increased by an average of 3.14% as feed speed increased. The reduction in Pc compared to the dry cutting was calculated as an average of 2.2%, 3.17%, 2.57%, 4.88% and 5.45% for MQL, nano-Graphen + MQL, nano-hBN + MQL, Cryo, Cryo + MQL, respectively. It is seen that the developed prediction model can reflect the power consumption-parameter relationships at high accuracy.

Hybrid Intelligent Control System for Adaptive Microgrid Optimization: Integration of Rule-Based Control and Deep Learning Techniques

Microgrids (MGs) have evolved as critical components of modern energy distribution networks, providing increased dependability, efficiency, and sustainability. Effective control strategies are essential for optimizing MG operation and maintaining stability in the face of changing environmental and load conditions. Traditional rule-based control systems are extensively used due to their interpretability and simplicity. However, these strategies frequently lack the flexibility for complex and changing system dynamics. This paper provides a novel method called hybrid intelligent control for adaptive MG that integrates basic rule-based control and deep learning techniques, including gated recurrent units (GRUs), basic recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and long short-term memory (LSTM). The main target of this hybrid approach is to improve MG management performance by combining the strengths of basic rule-based systems and deep learning techniques. These deep learning techniques readily enhance and adapt control decisions based on historical data and domain-specific rules, leading to increasing system efficiency, stability, and resilience in adaptive MG. Our results show that the proposed method optimizes MG operation, especially under demanding conditions such as variable renewable energy supply and unanticipated load fluctuations. This study investigates special RNN architectures and hyperparameter optimization techniques with the aim of predicting power consumption and generation within the adaptive MG system. Our promising results show the highest-performing models indicating high accuracy and efficiency in power prediction. The finest-performing model accomplishes an R2 value close to 1, representing a strong correlation between predicted and actual power values. Specifically, the best model achieved an R2 value of 0.999809, an MSE of 0.000002, and an MAE of 0.000831.

Estimating Spatio-Temporal Building Power Consumption Based on Graph Convolution Network Method

Buildings are responsible for around 30% and 42% of the consumed energy at the global and European levels, respectively. Accurate building power consumption estimation is crucial for resource saving. This research investigates the combination of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) and long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) to analyze power building consumption, thereby focusing on predictive modeling. Specifically, by structuring graphs based on Pearson’s correlation and Euclidean distance methods, GCNs are employed to discern intricate spatial dependencies, and LSTM is used for temporal dependencies. The proposed models are applied to data from a multistory, multizone educational building, and they are then compared with baseline machine learning, deep learning, and statistical models. The performance of all models is evaluated using metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), R-squared (R2), and the coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CV(RMSE)). Among the proposed computation models, one of the Euclidean-based models consistently achieved the lowest MAE and MSE values, thus indicating superior prediction accuracy. The suggested methods seem promising and highlight the effectiveness of GCNs in improving accuracy and reliability in predicting power consumption. The results could be useful in the planning of building energy policies by engineers, as well as in the evaluation of the energy management of structures.

Physics based models for characterization of machining performance – A critical review

This paper presents a comprehensive review of the concept of machinability by considering the dynamic, tribological, and thermo-mechanical interactions encountered at the tool-chip-machined surface interfaces. The paper provides a demonstration of the capabilities and gaps of the physics-based models for the characterization of the machining performance and the prediction of machinability of difficult-to-cut materials, including additively manufactured (AM) materials, nanocrystalline (NC) materials, fibre reinforced polymers (FRP), metal matrix composites reinforced with ceramic hard particles (MMC), and ceramic matrix composites (CMC). The utilization of efficient computation methods for accurate prediction of force, torque, power consumption, cutting temperature, deflection errors, vibration amplitudes, chatter stability, and thermomechanical interactions in the tool-workpiece system is discussed. The development of thermally-activated dissolution-diffusion wear models to describe the chemical reactions at the tool-chip-workpiece contact interfaces is also presented. These predictions are critical for identifying multi-objectives optimal machining conditions. The integration of predictive machining models within the framework of digital twins in cyber-physical spaces, for in-process monitoring and adaptive control, is demonstrated. Future research for developing new models that can characterize the machinability of AM and NC materials, by considering the effects of varying material microstructure and anisotropy, is presented for conventional and micro-machining operations.

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАСХОДА ЭЛЕКТРОЭНЕРГИИ НА ОСНОВЕ СЕЗОННЫХ ВРЕМЕННЫХ РЯДОВ

The task of predicting power consumption based on seasonal time series is considered.

Prediction of Load Demand in Home Area Network Using LSTM

Load forecasting is one of the most important tools for the energy management system in the modern world. Forecasting power consumption and load demand calculation became an interesting topic for the stakeholders in the electricity market. Decision-making in purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and demand side management are dependent on load forecasting. This research work focuses on the prediction of power consumption in a Home Area Network (HAN) using time series forecasting methods like Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural Networks. Our goal was to design a model that could precisely forecast the electrical load required in a Home Area Network. Utility companies and homeowners can utilize this model to better plan and control their power usage. It can assist in lowering the likelihood of power outages and enhancing the effectiveness of the electrical system. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is used as the performance measure in our work. The dataset considered is from the UCI repository with 350400 rows and 4 parameters such as active power, and 3 submetering values, to achieve realistic data for training the model used the encoder-decoder LSTM model for load prediction and achieved an RMSE value of 23 and an MAE value of 18.6

AugLPN-NILM: Augmented lightweight parallel network for NILM embedding attention module over sequence to point

Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), also called energy disaggregation, is a feasible strategy for identifying appliance-by-appliance power consumption given the aggregated power demand of electrical loads. A non-intrusive sequence to point load disaggregation parallel model (AugLPN-NILM) is proposed in this paper. Spatial-temporal feature fusion is introduced in our AugLPN to offer more differentiated features, which alleviates the weakness of time domain feature loss, therefore, can boost the performance of energy disaggregation. Most current methods have large performance variations of predicting power consumption for different appliances, the parallel architecture in the AugLPN not only greatly reduces the variations with a relatively small number of parameters to tune, but also accurately predicts the on/off state of appliances across unseen houses or buildings. Furthermore, we present an enhanced attention module, which is applied to activate or restrain features adaptively and especially improve decomposition accuracy of type II appliances. In addition, an effective postprocessing algorithm is proposed to further optimize the disaggregation results. The experiments executed on two publicly accessible datasets, UK-DALE and REDD, demonstrate our proposed AugLPN model’s superiority compared with some existing algorithms in all the identical experimental conditions. The exact code for reproducing the results in this paper is available at https://github.com/linfengYang/AugLPN_NILM.

Power Consumption Prediction in Real-Time Multitasking Systems

The paper presents a practical methodology for the prediction of power consumption of a multitask real-time system. The authors briefly recall the structure of the original multitasking time-predictable system. The system has a regular and scalable architecture. It consists of many cores based on pipeline processing with threads’ interleaving mechanism. In previous works, the authors have presented a number of issues related to the methodology of designing a time-predictable system and the scheduling of hardware threads with different design goals and constraints. The current article presents an accurate method for measuring the dynamic power dissipated in a system for various scenarios and the system configuration. The proposed approach is based on continuous monitoring of the power consumed by the FPGA, transmitting the measurements to the computer from the measuring device, and online analysis of the obtained results. The authors based their power estimation method on the original task frequency factor (TF). A theoretical analysis was made, and a series of practical experiments were carried out. The results obtained enable accurate estimation of the power requirements for the tasks performed in the real-time system. The presented technique can be useful during the design stage of multitasking real-time systems.

Power consumption prediction for electric vehicle charging stations and forecasting income

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the future of the automobile industry, as they produce zero emissions and address environmental and health concerns caused by traditional fuel-poared vehicles. As more people shift towards EVs, the demand for power consumption forecasting is increasing to manage the charging stations effectively. Predicting power consumption can help optimize operations, prevent grid overloading, and power outages, and assist companies in estimating the number of charging stations required to meet demand. The paper uses three time series models to predict the electricity demand for charging stations, and the SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model outperforms the ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, with the least RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) scores in forecasting power demand and revenue. The data used for validation consists of charging activities over a four-year period from public charging outlets in Colorado, six months of charging data from ChargeMOD's public charging terminals in Kerala, India. Power usage is also forecasted based on wheels of vehicles, and finally, a plan subscription data from the same source is utilized to anticipate income, that helps companies develop pricing strategies to maximize profits while remaining competitive. Utility firms and charging networks may use accurate power consumption forecasts for a variety of purposes, such as power scheduling and determining the expected energy requirements for charging stations. Ultimately, precise power consumption forecasting can assist in the effective planning and design of EV charging infrastructure. The main aim of this study is to create a good time series model which can estimate the electric vehicle charging stations usage of power and verify if the firm has a good income along with some accuracy measures. The results show that SARIMA model plays a vital role in providing us with accurate information. According to the data and study here, four wheelers use more power than two and three wheelers. Also, DC charging facility uses more electricity than AC charging stations. These results can be used to determine the cost to operate the EVs and its subscriptions.

Power consumption prediction model based on artificial neural networks for seawater source heat pump system in recirculating aquaculture system fish farm

Power consumption prediction model based on artificial neural networks for seawater source heat pump system in recirculating aquaculture system fish farm

Power Consumption and Processing Time Estimation of CNC Machines Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)

Due to environmental issues such as climate change, companies are required to optimize their resource and energy consumption in their production process. Predicting power consumption and processing time of all production facilities is essential for manufacturing to develop mechanisms to prevent energy and resource waste and optimize their use. Machine learning is a powerful tool for prediction tasks using data in digitalized environments. In this paper, we present power consumption and processing time prediction of CNC milling machines using five machine learning regression models, i.e., decision tree, random forest, support vector regression (SVR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN). Since most of those models are black-box, we applied two explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), to give post-hoc explanations of the predictions given by the machine learning models. Our experiments indicated that random forest regression performed the best in predicting power consumption and processing time. The explanation showed that the number of axis rotations and the number of travels to the machine's zero point in rapid traverse were the most important factors that affected the processing time and power consumption. The companies using CNC milling machines can use our prediction models to optimally plan and schedule the operation of the milling machines in a time and energy-efficient manner. They can also optimize the factors that affect power consumption and processing time the most.

Prophet와 GRU을 이용하여 단중기 전력소비량 예측

The building energy management system (BEMS), a system designed to efficiently manage energy production and consumption, aims to address the variable nature of power consumption within buildings due to their physical characteristics, necessitating stable power supply. In this context, accurate prediction of building energy consumption becomes crucial for ensuring reliable power delivery. Recent research has explored various approaches, including time series analysis, statistical analysis, and artificial intelligence, to predict power consumption. This paper analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of the Prophet model, choosing to utilize its advantages such as growth, seasonality, and holiday patterns, while also addressing its limitations related to data complexity and external variables like climatic data. To overcome these challenges, the paper proposes an algorithm that combines the Prophet model's strengths with the gated recurrent unit (GRU) to forecast short-term (2 days) and medium-term (7 days, 15 days, 30 days) building energy consumption. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach compared to conventional GRU and Prophet models.

COMPARISON OF NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURES TO PREDICTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY ENTERPRISE

Forecasting of electricity consumption is a key tool for enterprises, energy supply and power grid organizations. Accurate forecasting enables to plan the distribution of limited resources of the power grid facilities, as well as to manage the demand for electricity. In the context of modern demand management technologies, improving the accuracy of forecasting of electricity consumption becomes especially important.
 
 The purpose of the study is to improve the accuracy of predicting power consumption by the power supply object using neural networks.
 
 Materials and methods. The work used a data set containing a profile of the enterprise’s capacity for a three-month period, as well as additional data, such as time of day, day of the week, weekends and holidays, month. The data set is divided into training and control parts. Preliminary data processing, neural network architecture design, training and testing were carried out. The criteria for the quality of training are the mean absolute error, the mean square error and the coefficient of determination.
 
 Research results. In the work, a comparative analysis of three neural network architectures was performed: a one-dimensional convolutional network, a recurrent neural network with long-term and short-term memory, and WaveNet, on the basis of which their indicators of the quality of power consumption forecasting were evaluated. It was shown that all considered architectures of neural networks are suitable for the use in the issue of predicting power consumption. Long-term and short-term memory networks have shown good results in power prediction due to their ability to handle long-term time dependencies. The WaveNet architecture outperformed both long-term and short-term memory model-based recurrent neural networks and one-dimensional convolutional networks by selected criteria.
 
 Conclusions. The study led to the conclusion that the use of neural networks, especially architectures with long-term and short-term memory and WaveNet, is an effective approach for predicting power consumption. The quality of forecasting significantly depends on the choice of hyperparameters and preliminary processing of the initial data. Prospect for further research in this area is studying the influence of various factors on the accuracy of forecasting and optimization of the learning process of neural networks.

DSPM: Dual sequence prediction model for efficient energy management in micro-grid

Power generation and consumption predictions are fundamental for smart grid operations, addressing challenges posed by renewable energy variability and irregular consumer demand. This study introduces the Dual Sequence Predictive Model (DSPM) based on Spatiotemporal CNN (STCNN) architecture, offering a holistic solution for forecasting Electricity Generation (EG) and Electricity Consumption (EC) collectively. Leveraging STCNN, the DSPM efficiently extracts spatial and temporal information, improving prediction accuracy and processing speed. A 1D spatial attention module is added to capture crucial spatial dependencies in historical data. Incorporating shared historical weather information streamlines learning process and reduces model complexity. Extensive benchmark evaluations demonstrate the DSPM superior performance, achieving the lowest error rates compared to baseline models. The DSPM also employs the Kullback–Leibler Divergence (KLD) algorithm for power generation and consumption matching, ensuring efficient power distribution within smart and microgrids. Furthermore, the DSPM is evaluated alongside Single Sequence Prediction (SSP) models, providing a comprehensive analysis of its capabilities and comparisons with state-of-the-art models. The SSP model achieved an average RMSE reduction of 17.3% for solar EG data and 15.86% for IHEPC residential EC data, while DSPM reduced RMSE by 7.57% over PowerGrid dataset compared to baseline models.

Rational dimension of a basis of a regression model for adaptive short-term forecasting the state of a discrete nonstationary dynamic system

Relevance. Today, there are many methodologies for predicting power consumption of various objects. However, there is no a general methodology that is suitable for all types of energy systems, including the sectoral characteristics of small northern settlements and other objects with the stochastic nature of electricity consumption schedules. At the same time, during the development of problem-oriented forecasting methods, it is necessary to take into account computational and statistical features of forecasted time series to the maximum and apply them adequately. The mentioned circumstance prompts the creation of criteria-indicators that allow evaluating the quality of the applied model for solving the forecasting problem, correctness of its construction and correctness of applying a priori information about the object and its physical properties.Aim. Develop and apply the criteria-indicators, which allow evaluating the quality of the forecast regression model and the influence of the dimensionality of such model base on a forecasting error. Methods. The choice of rational dimensionality of the regression model basis for the adaptive forecasting problem is based on the known and developed criteria-indicators. The main provisions of such criteria-indicators were formulated, which provide an assessment of the quality of conditioning of an equivalent square matrix, the presence of uninformative elements of the matrix, and linear dependence of the columns. Results. Based on the analysis of criteria-indicators, the authors selected a rational dimension of the regression model basis for the problem of adaptive short-term forecasting of the state of discrete non-stationary dynamic systems. Conclusions. The authors have previously selected the most promising criteria-indicators and developed a normalized difference factor of diagonal predominance. This allows us to evaluate the influence of the basis size change on the regression model quality when building an approach of adaptive short-term forecasting of electricity consumption by autonomous power systems of small northern settlements on the basis of regression analysis methods. Based on the analysis of criteria-indicators the authors obtained information about the influence of the regression model basis dimension on the forecasting problem solution error. The authors stated the further stages of research to reduce this error. The paper introduces and describes one of the ways to improve the forecasting model quality. The dependence of the forecasting error on the size of the regression model basis were revealed; the criteria-indicators considered in the article were successfully applied. It is confirmed that the pre-selected and developed criteria-indicators make it possible, at the stage of compiling an equivalent square matrix and performing preliminary actions on it, to track changes within the matrix. The changes will lead to improvement in the solution of the problem of adaptive short-term forecasting.