Predict Cancer Incidence Research Articles

Self-Destructive Behavior among Predictors of Cancer Incidence

Self-Destructive Behavior among Predictors of Cancer Incidence

Metabolic profile predicts incident cancer: A large-scale population study in the UK Biobank

Background and aimsAnalyses to predict the risk of cancer typically focus on single biomarkers, which do not capture their complex interrelations. We hypothesized that the use of metabolic profiles may provide new insights into cancer prediction. MethodsWe used information from 290,888 UK Biobank participants aged 37 to 73 years at baseline. Metabolic subgroups were defined based on clustering of biochemical data using an artificial neural network approach and examined for their association with incident cancers identified through linkage to cancer registry. In addition, we evaluated associations between 38 individual biomarkers and cancer risk. ResultsIn total, 21,973 individuals developed cancer during the follow-up (median 3.87 years, interquartile range [IQR] = 2.03–5.58). Compared to the metabolically favorable subgroup (IV), subgroup III (defined as “high BMI, C-reactive protein & cystatin C") was associated with a higher risk of obesity-related cancers (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.26, 95 % CI = 1.21 to 1.32) and hematologic-malignancies (e.g., lymphoid leukemia: HR = 1.83, 95%CI = 1.44 to 2.33). Subgroup II (“high triglycerides & liver enzymes”) was strongly associated with liver cancer risk (HR = 5.70, 95%CI = 3.57 to 9.11). Analysis of individual biomarkers showed a positive association between testosterone and greater risks of hormone-sensitive cancers (HR per SD higher = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.23 to 1.44), and liver cancer (HR = 2.49, 95%CI =1.47 to 4.24). Many liver tests were individually associated with a greater risk of liver cancer with the strongest association observed for gamma-glutamyl transferase (HR = 2.40, 95%CI = 2.19 to 2.65). ConclusionsMetabolic profile in middle-to-older age can predict cancer incidence, in particular risk of obesity-related cancer, hematologic malignancies, and liver cancer. Elevated values from liver tests are strong predictors for later risk of liver cancer.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2022.

PurposeThis study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2022 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2019 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2020 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2022. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.ResultsIn total, 274,488 new cancer cases and 81,277 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2022. The most common cancer site is expected to be the thyroid, followed by the lung, colon and rectum, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and gallbladder cancers.ConclusionThe incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to gradually decrease. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

The Functional Characterization of Epigenetically Related lncRNAs Involved in Dysregulated CeRNA-CeRNA Networks Across Eight Cancer Types.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that lncRNAs could compete with other RNAs to bind miRNAs, as competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs), to regulate each other. On the other hand, ceRNAs were found to be recurrently dysregulated in cancer status. However, limited studies considered the upstream epigenetic regulatory factors that disrupted the normal competing mechanism. In the present study, we constructed the lncRNA-associated dysregulated ceRNA networks across eight cancer types. lncRNAs in the individual dysregulated network and pan-cancer core dysregulated ceRNA subnetwork were found to play more important roles than mRNAs. Integrating lncRNA methylation profiles, we identified 49 epigenetically related (ER) lncRNAs involved in the dysregulated ceRNA networks, including 18 epigenetically activated (EA) lncRNAs, 18 epigenetically silenced (ES) lncRNAs, and 13 rewired ER lncRNAs across eight cancer types. Furthermore, we evaluated the epigenetic regulating patterns of these lncRNAs and screened nine pan-cancer ER lncRNAs (six EA and three ES lncRNAs). The nine lncRNAs were found to regulate the cancer hallmarks by competing with mRNAs. Moreover, we found that integrating the expression and methylation profiles of the nine lncRNAs could predict cancer incidence in eight cancer types robustly and the cancer outcome of several cancer types. These results provide an improved understanding of methylation regulation to ceRNA and offer novel potential molecular therapeutic targets for the diagnosis and prognosis across different cancer types.

Elucidating the role of CD91 on dendritic cells during immunosurveillance of emerging tumors

Abstract The premise of immunosurveillance is that the immune system, particularly T cells, can detect and eliminate emerging tumor cells. However, the mechanisms that allow efficient T cell priming during nascent tumor immunosurveillance despite limited antigen availability remain unclear. Immunogenic heat shock proteins (HSPs) such as gp96 can efficiently chaperone minute levels of peptides available in nascent tumors to elicit antigen-specific immunity. In immune-competent hosts, the receptor CD91 which is expressed on antigen presenting cells (APCs) facilitates uptake and cross-presentation of these chaperoned tumor antigens. Further, engagement of CD91 on dendritic cells (DCs) initiates signals for co-stimulation and cytokine production to prime anti-tumor responses. Recent studies from our lab indicate that mice deficient in CD91 expression in DCs are more susceptible to chemically induced tumors compared to wild type mice. DCs are critical in CD91-mediated immune responses, yet the CD91+ DC subset(s) that prime robust anti-tumor T cell responses have not been elucidated. This study seeks to define the DC subset(s) necessary for CD91-mediated immune responses using mice with DC-specific CD91 deficiency. Given the dual role of CD91 on DCs in antigen transfer and co-stimulation, we examine the mechanism and consequences of CD91-mediated immunosurveillance during cancer induction. Advancing our understanding of this mechanism of immunosurveillance and the role of CD91+ DCs will have significant implications for predicting cancer incidence and therapy.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2021.

PurposeThis study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2021 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2018 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2019 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2021. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.ResultsIn total, 259,999 new cancer cases and 81,567 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2021. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the thyroid, colon and rectum, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.ConclusionThe incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to gradually decrease. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

Narrative review: predicting future molecular and clinical profiles of prostate cancer in the United States.

Prostate cancer represents the most frequent tumor in men, accounting for the 21% of all diagnosed tumors, with 191,930 new cases and 33,330 deaths estimated in 2020. Advanced prostate cancer represents a heterogeneous disease, ranging from hormone naive or hormone sensitive to castration resistant. The therapeutic armamentarium for this disease has been implemented in the last years by novel hormonal therapies and chemotherapies. However, the percentage of patients who achieve complete responses still results negligible. On this scenario, the design of clinical trials investigating new therapeutic approaches represent a dramatic medical need. Predicting cancer incidence may be fundamental to design specific clinical trials, to optimize the allocation of economic resources, and to plan future cancer control programs. ERG, SPOP and DDR genes alterations can act as therapeutic targets in prostate cancer patients and can be tested to identify a gene-selected patient population to enrol in specific trials. According to our predictions, ERG gene fusions will be the most predominant molecular subtype, accounting for 69,050 new cases in 2030. Mutation in SPOP gene will be diagnosed in 16,512 tumors, corresponding to the number of cases associated with alterations in DDR genes (including 7,956 BRCA2 mutated tumors). In this article, we analyzed and discussed the future molecular and clinical profiles of prostate cancer in the United States, aimed to describe a series of distinct subpopulations and to quantify potential clinical trial candidates in the next years.

Combining pulmonary and cardiac computed tomography biomarkers for disease-specific risk modelling in lung cancer screening.

Combined assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD), COPD and lung cancer may improve the effectiveness of lung cancer screening in smokers. The aims were to derive and assess risk models for predicting lung cancer incidence, CVD mortality and COPD mortality by combining quantitative computed tomography (CT) measures from each disease, and to quantify the added predictive benefit of self-reported patient characteristics given the availability of a CT scan. A survey model (patient characteristics only), CT model (CT information only) and final model (all variables) were derived for each outcome using parsimonious Cox regression on a sample from the National Lung Screening Trial (n=15 000). Validation was performed using Multicentric Italian Lung Detection data (n=2287). Time-dependent measures of model discrimination and calibration are reported. Age, mean lung density, emphysema score, bronchial wall thickness and aorta calcium volume are variables that contributed to all final models. Nodule features were crucial for lung cancer incidence predictions but did not contribute to CVD and COPD mortality prediction. In the derivation cohort, the lung cancer incidence CT model had a 5-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 82.5% (95% CI 80.9-84.0%), significantly inferior to that of the final model (84.0%, 82.6-85.5%). However, the addition of patient characteristics did not improve the lung cancer incidence model performance in the validation cohort (CT model 80.1%, 74.2-86.0%; final model 79.9%, 73.9-85.8%). Similarly, the final CVD mortality model outperformed the other two models in the derivation cohort (survey model 74.9%, 72.7-77.1%; CT model 76.3%, 74.1-78.5%; final model 79.1%, 77.0-81.2%), but not the validation cohort (survey model 74.8%, 62.2-87.5%; CT model 72.1%, 61.1-83.2%; final model 72.2%, 60.4-84.0%). Combining patient characteristics and CT measures provided the largest increase in accuracy for the COPD mortality final model (92.3%, 90.1-94.5%) compared to either other model individually (survey model 87.5%, 84.3-90.6%; CT model 87.9%, 84.8-91.0%), but no external validation was performed due to a very low event frequency. CT measures of CVD and COPD provides small but reproducible improvements to nodule-based lung cancer risk prediction accuracy from 3 years onwards. Self-reported patient characteristics may not be of added predictive value when CT information is available.

Occurrence, health risk assessment and regional impact of parent, halogenated and oxygenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in tap water

Recently, derivates of parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have aroused increasing concerns due to potential health problems they cause. In this study, we first found the coexistence of PAHs, chlorinated PAHs (Cl-PAHs), brominated PAHs (Br-PAHs) and oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) in tap water. Twenty-six compounds including 13 PAHs, 5 Cl-PAHs, 5 Br-PAHs, and 3 OPAHs were detected. Total concentrations of PAHs (2.50–56.90 ng L−1) and OPAHs (n.d. to 80.34 ng L−1) were relatively higher than those of Cl-PAHs (0.30–11.28 ng L−1) and Br-PAHs (n.d. to 8.20 ng L−1). We calculated the 95th percentile incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) values of PAHs and HPAHs. In all sampling sites, although no ILCR values for PAHs and HPAHs were higher than 1.00E-06, results still indicates there is still a low cancer risk existed. In addition, regional impact was established by combining ILCR values with population density. Predicted cancer incidence (PCI, people km−2) was calculated to evaluate regional impact more comprehensively. The results were different from previous hypothesis that sampling sites with high ILCR values may not necessarily present high regional impacts. After total PCI of each district was summed, all calculated districts of Beijing, China were at low regional impact.

Metrics for Evaluating Polygenic Risk Scores.

There is growing interest in the use of polygenic risk scores based on genetic variants to predict cancer incidence. The type of metric used to evaluate the predictive performance of polygenic risk scores plays a crucial role in their interpretation. I compare 3 metrics for this evaluation: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the probability of cancer in a high-risk subset divided by the prevalence of cancer in the population, which I call the subset relative risk (SRR), and the minimum test tradeoff, which is the minimum number of genetic variant ascertainments (one per person) for each correct prediction of cancer to yield a positive expected clinical utility. I show that SRR is a relabeling of AUC. I recommend the minimum test tradeoff for the evaluation of polygenic risk scores because, unlike AUC and SRR, it is directly related to the expected clinical utility.

How to produce sound predictions of incidence at a district level using either health care or mortality data in the absence of a national registry: the example of cancer in France.

In many countries, epidemiological surveillance of chronic diseases is monitored by local registries (LR) which do not necessarily cover the whole national territory. This gap has fostered interest in using non-registry databases (e.g., health care or mortality databases) available for the whole territory as proxies for incidence at the local level. However, direct counts from these databases do not provide reliable incidence measures. Accordingly, specific methods are needed to correct proxies and assess their epidemiological usefulness. This study's objective was to implement a three-stage turnkey methodology using national non-registry data to predict incidence in geographical areas without an LR as follows: constructing a calibration model to make predictions including accurate prediction intervals; accuracy assessment of predictions and rationale for the criteria to assess which predictions were epidemiologically useful; mapping after spatial smoothing of the latter predictions. The methodology was applied to a real-world setting, whereby we aimed to predict cancer incidence, by gender, at the district level in France over the 2007-15 period for 24 different cancer sites, using several health care indicators and mortality. In the present paper, the spatial smoothing performed on predicted incidence of epidemiological interest is illustrated for two examples. Predicted incidence of epidemiological interest was possible for 27/34 solid site-gender combinations and for only 2/8 haematological malignancies-gender combinations. Mapping of smoothed predicted incidence provided a clear picture of the main contrasts in incidence between districts. The methodology implemented provides a comprehensive framework to produce valuable predictions of incidence at a district level, using proxy measures and existing LR.

Could Inflammatory Indices and Metabolic Syndrome Predict the Risk of Cancer Development? Analysis from the Bagnacavallo Population Study.

Background: Despite the robust data available on inflammatory indices (neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII)) and clinical outcome in oncological patients, their utility as a predictor of cancer incidence in the general population has not been reported in literature. Methods: The Bagnacavallo study was performed between October 2005 and March 2009. All citizens of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy) aged 30–60 years as of January 2005 were eligible and were invited by written letter to participate to the study. All participants underwent a detailed clinical history and physical examination following the model of the Dionysos Study. All blood values included in the analysis were obtained the day of physical examination. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the population-based Romagna Cancer Registry, which operates according to standard methods. The aim of this analysis was to examine the association between metabolic syndrome and baseline SII, NLR, and PLR levels, and the diagnosis of an invasive cancer in the Bagnacavallo study cohort. Results: At univariate analysis, metabolic syndrome was not associated with an increase of cancer incidence (HR 1.30; p = 0.155). High glucose (HR 1.49; p = 0.0.16), NLR HR 1.54, p = 0.002), PLR (HR 1.58, p = 0.001), and SII (HR 1.47, p = 0.006) were associated with an increase of cancer incidence. After adjusting for clinical covariates (smoking, physical activity, education, age, and gender) SII, PLR, and NLR remained independent prognostic factors for the prediction of cancer incidence. Conclusions: Inflammatory indices are promising, easy to perform, and inexpensive tools for identifying patients with higher risk of cancer in cancer-free population.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020

PurposeThis study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2020 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2018 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A Joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.ResultsIn total, 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2020. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the stomach, thyroid, colon/rectum, and breast. These five cancers types are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer among people who die is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colon/rectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.ConclusionThe incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

Cost-effective approach to lung cancer risk for a radiological dispersal device (RDD) scenario

Abstract A release of radioactive material into the environment can lead to hazardous exposure of the population and serious future concerns about health issues such as an increased incidence of cancer. In this context, a practical methodology capable of providing useful basic information from the scenario can be valuable for immediate decisions and future risk assessment. For this work, the simulation of a radiological dispersal device (RDD) filled with americium-241 was considered. The radiation dose simulated by the HotSpot code was used as an input to the epidemiological equations from BEIR V producing the data used to assess the risk of lung cancer development. The methodology could be useful in providing training for responders aimed to the initial support addressed to decision-making for emergency response at the early phase of an RDD scenario. The results from the simulation allow estimating (a) the size of the potentially affected population, (b) the type of protection action considering gender and location of the individuals, (c) the absorbed doses, (d) the matrix of lung cancer incidence predictions over a period of 5 years, and (e) the cost-effectiveness in the initial decision environment.

A Microsimulation Model for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Cancer Risk Management for BRCA Pathogenic Variant Carriers: miBRovaCAre

ObjectivesTo develop a validated model for evaluating the real-world effectiveness of long-term clinical management strategies for women with germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 pathogenic variants. MethodsA microsimulation model was developed that included a BRCA-specific natural history for breast and ovarian cancer, a clinical framework for carrier follow-up, and cancer risk management strategies (breast screening, risk-reducing mastectomy, and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy). Adherence rates and outcomes for breast screening and risk-reducing surgery were obtained from BRCA carriers seen through a familial cancer service in Melbourne, Australia. The model was assessed for internal and external validity. The model was used to compare women perfectly adhering to screening recommendations versus actual adherence of the clinical cohort. ResultsThe model accurately predicted cancer incidence, pathology, and mortality. Using actual adherence for breast screening resulted in additional breast cancer deaths (per 1000 women: BRCA1, 2.7; BRCA2, 1.6) compared with perfect screening adherence. This decreased average life expectancy by 0.30 life-years for BRCA1 and 0.07 life-years for BRCA2. When carriers had access to risk-reducing mastectomy, the benefit from improved screening adherence was not significant. ConclusionsThe developed model is a good descriptor of BRCA carriers’ lifetime trajectory and its modification by use of risk management strategies alone or in combination. Evaluations of breast screening in BRCA carriers may overestimate the benefits of screening programs unless adherence is considered. By incorporating real-world clinical practice and patient behavior, this model can assist in developing clinical services and improving clinical outcomes for carriers.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2019.

PurposeThis study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2019 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2017 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly; we used only the data of the latest trend.ResultsA total of 221,347 new cancer cases and 82,344 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2019. The most common cancer sites thus far have been the lung, followed by the stomach, colon and rectum, breast, and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For cancer associated mortality, the most common sites were lung, followed by the liver, colon and rectum, stomach, and pancreas.ConclusionThe incidence rate of all cancer in Korea is estimated to decrease gradually. These up-todate estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

Combining population projections with quasi-likelihood models: A new way to predict cancer incidence and cancer mortality in Austria up to 2030

The current demographic changes with a shift toward older ages contribute to more cancer cases in the next decades in Western countries. Thus, forecasting the demand for expected healthcare services and expenditures is relevant for planning purposes and re

Patterns of Pediatric Cancers in Florida: 2000–2015

ABSTRACTThis study identifies pediatric cancer clusters in Florida for the years 2000–2015. Unlike previous publications on pediatric cancers in Florida, it draws upon an Environmental Protection Agency dataset on carcinogenic air pollution, the National Air Toxics Assessment, as well as more customary demographic variables (age, sex, race). The focus is upon the three most widely seen pediatric cancer types in the USA: brain tumors, leukemia, and lymphomas. The covariates are used in a Poisson regression to predict cancer incidence. The adjusted cluster analysis quantifies the role of each covariate. Using Florida Association of Pediatric Tumor Programs data for 2000–2015, we find statistically significant pediatric cancer clusters, but we cannot associate air pollution with the cancer incidence. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Projection of cancer incidence rates and case numbers until 2030: A probabilistic approach applied to German cancer registry data (1999–2013)

BackgroundCancer incidence projections are of major interest for resource allocation in healthcare and medical research. Previous reports of cancer incidence projections have often been deterministic, i.e. lacking quantification of uncertainty. We project cancer incidence in Germany by applying an approach that allows for probabilistic interpretation of outcomes. Material and methodsGerman cancer registry data from 1999 to 2013 are used to predict cancer incidence for 27 sites until the year 2030. We apply Bayesian Poisson and negative binomial models to obtain probabilistic estimates of future site-, year-, sex- and age-specific cancer incidence rates. Results from cancer incidence models are combined with probabilistic population projections to estimate numbers of incident cancer cases. Comparisons of overall and stratum-specific cancer incidence rates and case numbers are made between the years 2015 and 2030 by estimating absolute and relative change along with uncertainty intervals. ResultsThe overall standardized incidence rate is expected to increase by 5% (95%-credible interval: 0%, 13%) until 2030. Incident case numbers are expected to increase by 23% (95%-credible interval: 17%, 29%) which is mostly driven by demographic change. The probability (expressed as %) that the change will be >10%, >20% or >30% was calculated to be >99%, 66% and 7%, respectively. ConclusionsThe analysis provides evidence on the future cancer burden in Germany by applying a fully Bayesian approach that offers advantages in terms of flexibility, probabilistic interpretability, and transparency. It may especially be an alternative when long-term cancer incidence data are missing.

Promoter methylation of PGC1A and PGC1B predicts cancer incidence in a veteran cohort.

Previous studies suggest telomere shortening represses PGC1A and PGC1B expression leading to mitochondrial dysfunction. Methylation of CpG sites within these genes may interact with these factors to affect cancer risk. Among 385 men, we identified 84 incidents of cancers (predominantly prostate and nonmelanoma skin). We examined associations between leukocyte DNA methylation of 41 CpGs from PGC1A and PGC1B with telomere length, mitochondrial 8-OHdG lesions, mitochondrial abundance and cancer incidence. Methylation of five and eight CpG sites were significantly associated with telomere length and mitochondrial abundance at p <0.05. Two CpG sites were independently associated with cancer risk: cg27514608 (PGC1A, TSS1500; HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.19-2.03, FDR=0.02), and cg15219393 (PGC1B, first exon/5'UTR; HR: 3.71, 95% CI: 1.82-7.58, FDR<0.01). Associations with cg15219393 were observed primarily among men with shorter leukocyte telomeres. PGC1A and PGC1B methylation may serve as early biomarkers of cancer risk.