Precursory Slip Research Articles

Did Short‐Term Preseismic Crustal Deformation Precede the 2011 Great Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake? An Examination of Stacked Tilt Records

AbstractThe detection of preslip, occurring hours to days before a large earthquake, using geodetic measurements has been a major focus in earthquake prediction research. A recent study claims to have detected a preseismic signal interpreted as accelerating slip near the hypocenter of the 2011 great Tohoku‐oki earthquake, starting approximately 2 hr before the mainshock. This claim is based on a stacking procedure using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data. However, a follow‐up study demonstrated that the signal disappeared when specific GNSS noise was corrected. Here we utilize tiltmeter records, independent on GNSS, to check whether the claimed preseismic signal is detected using a similar stacking procedure. Our results show no acceleration‐like deformation from 2 hr before the mainshock. This indicates that no precursory slip exceeded the noise level of the tilt data, and if any preslip occurred, it was less than 5.0 × 1018 Nm in seismic moment.

The precursory phase of large earthquakes.

The existence of an observable precursory phase of slip on the fault before large earthquakes has been debated for decades. Although observations preceding several large earthquakes have been proposed as possible indicators of precursory slip, these observations do not directly precede earthquakes, are not seen before most events, and are also commonly observed without being followed by earthquakes. We conducted a global search for short-term precursory slip in GPS data. We summed the displacements measured by 3026 high-rate GPS time series-projected onto the directions expected from precursory slip at the hypocenter-during 48 hours before 90 (moment magnitude ≥7) earthquakes. Our approach reveals a ≈2-hour-long exponential acceleration of slip before the ruptures, suggesting that large earthquakes start with a precursory phase of slip, which improvements in measurement precision and density could more effectively detect and possibly monitor.

Frictional behavior of quartz gouge during slide-hold-slide considering normal stress oscillation

Slide-hold-slide (SHS) test is an essential experimental approach for studying the frictional stability of faults. The origin SHS framework was established based on a consistent constant normal stress, which cannot truly reflect the stress disturbance around fault zones. In this paper, we conducted a series of ‘dynamic SHS tests’, which includes normal stress oscillations in the relaxation stage with different oscillation amplitudes and frequencies on synthetic quartz gouge using a double direct shear assembly. The experimental results reveal that the amplitude of the normal load oscillation has a remarkable effect on the frictional relaxation and healing patterns. However, the frequency of the normal load oscillation has a minor effect. Additionally, the shear loading rate is proportional to the normal loading rate during the relaxation stage, and the normal stiffness of the quartz layer remains nearly constant under various loading conditions. The creep rate during the hold phase is not obviously affected by the normal load oscillation, while the precursory slip is also sensitive to the oscillation amplitude. This study provides insights into the evolution of frictional stability in discontinuities and is beneficial for controlling relative disasters in fault zones.

Non‐Precursory Accelerating Aseismic Slip During Rupture Nucleation

AbstractAccelerating aseismic slip events have been commonly observed during the rupture nucleation processes of the earthquake. While that accelerating aseismic slip is usually considered strong evidence for precursory activity, it remains unclear whether all accelerating aseismic slip events are precursory to an incoming earthquake. Two contrasting nucleation models have been introduced to explain the observations associated with the nucleation of unstable slip: the pre‐slip and cascade nucleation models. Each of these two‐end members, however, has its own limitations. In this study, we employ Discrete Element Method simulations of a 2‐D strike‐slip fault to simulate various rupture nucleation and triggering processes. Our simulation results manifest that the final seismic event is a product contributed by multiple pre‐slip nucleation sites, which may interact, causing clock advance or cascade nucleation rupture processes. We also introduce a strengthening perturbation zone to investigate the role of a single nucleation site in an imminent seismic event. The simulation results reveal a new type of non‐precursory aseismic slip, representing the region favoring the generation of the precursory slip process but not correlating to the incoming main event, which differs from the previous interpretation of precursory slip. Furthermore, we include weakening perturbation zones in some simulations to demonstrate how small earthquakes may or may not trigger a nucleation site depending on spatial and temporal conditions. Our simulation results imply that such non‐precursory but accelerating aseismic slip events may suggest a fault segment that appears weakly coupled but possesses the potential to be triggered seismically.

Preparatory Slip in Laboratory Faults: Effects of Roughness and Load Point Velocity

AbstractAseismic slip may occur during a long preparatory phase preceding earthquakes, and what controls it remains poorly understood. In this study, we explored the role of load point velocity and surface roughness on slow slip during the preparatory stage prior to stick‐slip events. To that end, we conducted displacement‐rate controlled friction experiments by imposing varying load point velocities on sawcut granite samples with different surface roughness at a confining pressure of 35 MPa. We measured the average slip along the fault with the recorded far‐field displacements and strain changes, while acoustic emission sensors and local strain gages were used to capture local slip variations. We found that the average amount of aseismic slip during the preparatory stage increases with roughness, whereas precursory slip duration decreases with increased load point velocity. These results reveal a complex slip pattern on rough faults which leads to dynamic ruptures at high load point velocities.

Characteristics of Foreshocks Revealed by an Earthquake Forecasting Method Based on Precursory Swarm Activity

AbstractWe have developed an empirical earthquake forecast method, Maeda's method, based on the statistical features of precursory seismic swarm activity, that is foreshocks, which sometimes appear before a mainshock, and issuing an alert of a mainshock occurrence within a certain period of time. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of earthquake forecast of Maeda's method by applying it to seismicity under various tectonic environments of Japan such as regions characterized by interplate seismic activity, a tectonic fault line (concentrated deformation zone), and an island arc area of seismic and volcanic activity. As a result, we confirmed that Maeda's method yielded generally higher scores than a forecast model based on a stationary space‐time epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. We also found that foreshocks detected along the Japan Trench were distributed along the edges of low‐velocity anomalies and among areas with background swarms related to slow slip events (SSEs). The foreshocks may have been caused by a heterogeneous stress distribution associated with the existence of a plate‐bending axis and a subducted seamount. Foreshocks off Iwate prefecture, in particular, were excited by periodic SSEs. In an inland tectonic zone and an island arc, swarm activity associated with magmatic or fluid activity related to low‐velocity anomalies tended to be followed by a mainshock. Maeda's method is a simple and efficient counting‐number‐based earthquake forecast model and may capture characteristics of foreshocks that reflect a physical phenomenon, such as a nucleation process involving precursory slip, which the stationary ETAS model is not able to represent.

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance [Formula: see text] strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by [Formula: see text] 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains [Formula: see text] to be [Formula: see text] mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick-slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Migratory earthquake precursors are dominant on an ice stream fault.

Simple fault models predict earthquake nucleation near the eventual hypocenter (self-nucleation). However, some earthquakes have migratory foreshocks and possibly slow slip that travel large distances toward the eventual mainshock hypocenter (migratory nucleation). Scarce observations of migratory nucleation may result from real differences between faults or merely observational limitations. We use Global Positioning System and passive seismic records of the easily observed daily ice stream earthquake cycle of the Whillans Ice Plain, West Antarctica, to quantify the prevalence of migratory versus self-nucleation in a large-scale, natural stick-slip system. We find abundant and predominantly migratory precursory slip, whereas self-nucleation is nearly absent. This demonstration that migratory nucleation exists on a natural fault implies that more-observable migratory precursors may also occur before some earthquakes.

Stochastic properties of static friction

The onset of frictional motion is mediated by rupture-like slip fronts, which nucleate locally and propagate eventually along the entire interface causing global sliding. The static friction coefficient is a macroscopic measure of the applied force at this particular instant when the frictional interface loses stability. However, experimental studies are known to present important scatter in the measurement of static friction; the origin of which remains unexplained. Here, we study the nucleation of local slip at interfaces with slip-weakening friction of random strength and analyze the resulting variability in the measured global strength. Using numerical simulations that solve the elastodynamic equations, we observe that multiple slip patches nucleate simultaneously, many of which are stable and grow only slowly, but one reaches a critical length and starts propagating dynamically. We show that a theoretical criterion based on a static equilibrium solution predicts quantitatively well the onset of frictional sliding. We develop an efficient Monte-Carlo model by adapting the theoretical criterion and study the variability in global strength distribution caused by the stochastic properties of local frictional strength. The results demonstrate that an increasing spatial correlation length on the interface, representing geometric imperfections and roughness, causes lower global static friction. Conversely, smaller correlation length increases the macroscopic strength while its variability decreases. We further show that randomness in local friction properties is insufficient for the existence of systematic precursory slip events. Random or systematic non-uniformity in the driving force, such as potential energy or stress drop, is required for arrested slip fronts. Our model and observations provide a necessary framework for efficient stochastic analysis of macroscopic frictional strength and establish a fundamental basis for probabilistic design criteria for static friction.

Nucleation of Stick-Slip Instability Within a Large-Scale Experimental Fault: Effects of Stress Heterogeneities Due to Loading and Gouge Layer Compaction.

Geodetic observations and large‐scale laboratory experiments show that seismic instability is preceded by slow slip within a finite nucleation zone. In laboratory experiments rupture nucleation is studied mostly using bare (rock) interfaces, whereas upper crustal faults are typically filled with gouge. To investigate effects of gouge on rupture nucleation, we performed a biaxial shearing experiment on a 350 mm long saw‐cut fault filled with gypsum gouge, at room temperature and a minimum horizontal stress σ 2 = 0.3–5 MPa. The gouge layer was sandwiched between polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) plates For reference also a fault without gouge was deformed. Strain gauges and Digital Image Correlation were used to monitor the deformation field along the fault zone margins. Stick‐slip behavior occurred on both the gouge‐filled fault and the PMMA fault. Nucleation of instability on the PMMA fault persistently occurred from one location 2/3 to 3/4 along the fault adjacent to a slow slip zone at the fault end, but nucleation on the gouge‐filled fault was more variable, nucleating at the ends and/or at approximately 2/3 along the fault, with precursory slip occurring over a large fraction of the fault. Nucleation correlated to regions of high average fault stress ratio τ/σ n, which was more variable for the gouge‐filled fault due to small length scale variations in normal stress caused by heterogeneous gouge compaction. Rupture velocities and slip rates were lower for the gouge‐filled fault than for the bare PMMA fault. Stick‐slip persisted when σ 2 was lowered and the nucleation zone length increased, expanding from the center to the sample ends before transitioning into instability.

Variations in precursory slip behavior resulting from frictional heterogeneity

Precursory seismicity is often observed before a large earthquake. Small foreshocks occur within the mainshock rupture area, which cannot be explained by simple models that assume homogeneous friction on the entire fault. In this study, we consider a frictionally heterogeneous fault model, motivated by recent observations of geologic faults and slow earthquakes. This study investigates slip behavior on faults governed by a rate- and state-dependent friction law. We consider a finite linear fault consisting of alternating velocity-weakening zones (VWZs) and velocity-strengthening zones (VSZs). Our model generates precursory slip before the mainshock that ruptures the entire fault, though the activity level of the precursory slip depends on the frictional parameters. We investigate variations in precursory slip behavior, which we characterize quantitatively by the background slip acceleration and seismic radiation, using parameter studies of the a value of the VWZs and VSZs. The results reveal that precursory slip is very small when VWZs are strongly locked and when VSZs consume only a small amount of energy during seismic slip. Precursory slip is significant around the stability boundary of the fault. Furthermore, the type of precursory slip (seismic or aseismic) is controlled by the amplitude of the frictional heterogeneity. Active foreshocks obeying an inverse Omori law associated with background aseismic slip can be interpreted as the nucleation of the mainshock, though this is different from classical nucleation because the monotonic increase in slip velocity is significantly perturbed by the occurrence of foreshocks. Frictional heterogeneity also affects interseismic slip behavior. Modeled variations in precursory slip behavior and interseismic activity can qualitatively explain the along-dip and among-subduction-zone variations in real seismicity patterns. Because even simple frictional heterogeneity produces complex seismicity, it is necessary to further investigate the slip behavior of frictionally heterogeneous faults, which could be utilized for modeling various real seismicity patterns.

Deep deformation of the Longmenshan fault zone related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper reviews studies of the past ten year related to the crustal deformation of the Longmenshan fault zone (LMSFZ) which was struck by the M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. The tectonics of the LMSFZ located at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is complex, with complicated fault geometry and a heterogeneous velocity structure. The Wenchuan earthquake rupture extended for about 300 km along the middle and northern segments of the LMSFZ, with a very complicated rupture process involving multiple sub-events. The Wenchuan slip distribution is characterized by two major slip patches near Hongkou/Yingxiu and Beichuan with peak slip of 5.0–15.5 m and extended from near the surface to below 20 km depth. Prior to the Wenchuan earthquake, the LMSFZ had been seismically quiet for several centuries and there were no hints that suggested that such an M 8.0 earthquake might strike the area. The long-term geological investigations and short-term geodetic measurements before the Wenchuan earthquake generally agree that the horizontal slip rate along the LMSFZ is no more than 3 mm per year. The low slip rate observed at the surface around the LMSFZ may not reveal the real state of accumulated strain at depth where the devastating Wenchuan earthquake nucleated. Rates of aseismic slip at depth derived from seismological investigation of repeating microearthquakes were found to be approximately twice as large as the interseismic rates inferred from surface GPS and geological data. Most of the clusters of repeating microearthquakes are located at the edge of locked areas where large coseismic slips were observed during the Wenchuan earthquake, suggesting a close relationship between microearthquakes and impending large earthquakes. A two-dimensional viscoelastic finite-element model produces a depth-related slip rate pattern around the LMSFZ that is consistent with that revealed by the seismological observation of repeating earthquakes. The measured in situ deep slip rates increase with depth and vary from 3.5 to 9.6 mm/a over a depth range of 4–18 km.The seismological observations of deep slip rates and microseismicity in the three decades before the Wenchuan earthquake reveal that the LMSFZ is indeed not as “quiet” as traditionally assumed in comparison with its neighboring fault systems. Considering the deep slip rates (3.5−9.6 mm/a) from the repeating microearthquakes and coseismic peak offsets of 5.0–15.5 m, the recurrence interval of Wenchuan-like events is estimated to be about 500−4500 years. The estimated recurrence interval based on the deep slip rates is much smaller than those estimates using the same coseismic displacements divided by GPS-derived or geological slip rates. Slip rate increases with depth were also recognized in the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault zone and in the northeastern Japan subduction zone before the ruptures of the 2004 M w6.0 Parkfield earthquake and the 2011 M w9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, respectively. Accelerated slip is thought to have preceded a number of recent large subduction zone earthquakes and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and repeating earthquakes may document short-term precursory slip at depth. Alternatively, the rapid slip rates indicated by the repeating microearthquakes may represent transiently accelerated slip preceding the Wenchuan mainshock. We suggest that slip rates at seismogenic depths are of critical importance in seismic hazard analysis. Repeating earthquakes can be regarded as “deep creepmeters” that measure the in - situ deep slip rate on otherwise aseismically slipping faults. For less well defined and widespread faults within the continents, it is essential to reveal a fault’s or region’s seismic history over different time scale. Combining a better understanding of earthquake diversity with modern technology is the key to effective and comprehensive hazard mitigation practices. The potential earthquake hazard of locked faults with unusually high inferred deep slow slip rates should be paid more attention. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is the best-studied continental earthquake to date with a large number of scientific publications enabled by the vast collected data sets. The research community efforts have provided first-order information about this unexpected event regarding its coseismic slip distribution and fault geometry. However, there are many remaining questions about the basic nature of this earthquake to be further constrained with multiple data sets, including the relationship of its rupture with prior coupling and interseismic creep, the varying dynamical rupture processes with depth, the frequency dependence of seismic radiation across the fault zone, and the role of multiple postseismic deformation processes.

Foreshocks and delayed triggering of the 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa earthquake and dynamic reinvigoration of its aftershock sequence by the MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

We analyze the preparatory period of the September 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa foreshock–mainshock sequence in the Northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and subsequent reinvigoration of Te Araroa aftershocks driven by a large distant earthquake (the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake). By adopting a matched-filter detection workflow using 582 well-defined template events, we generate an improved foreshock and aftershock catalog for the Te Araroa sequence (>8,000 earthquakes over 66 d). Templates characteristic of the MW7.1 sequence (including the mainshock template) detect several highly correlating events (ML2.5–3.5) starting 12 min after a MW5.7 foreshock. These pre-cursory events occurred within ∼1 km of the mainshock and migrate bilaterally, suggesting precursory slip was triggered by the foreshock on the MW7.1 fault patch prior to mainshock failure. We extend our matched-filter routine to examine the interactions between high dynamic stresses resulting from passing surface waves of the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and the evolution of the Te Araroa aftershock sequence. We observe a sudden spike in moment release of the aftershock sequence immediately following peak dynamic Coulomb stresses of 50–150 kPa on the MW7.1 fault plane. The triggered increase in moment release culminated in a MW5.1 event, immediately followed by a ∼3 h temporal stress shadow. Our observations document the preparatory period of a major subduction margin earthquake following a significant foreshock, and quantify dynamic reinvigoration of a distant on-going major aftershock sequence amid a period of temporal clustering of seismic activity in New Zealand.

The onset of laboratory earthquakes explained by nucleating rupture on a rate‐and‐state fault

AbstractPrecursory aseismic slip lasting days to months prior to the initiation of earthquakes has been inferred from seismological observations. Similar precursory slip phenomena have also been observed in laboratory studies of shear rupture nucleation on frictional interfaces. However, the mechanisms that govern rupture nucleation, even in idealized laboratory settings, have been widely debated. Here we show that a numerical model incorporating rate‐and‐state friction laws and elastic continuum can reproduce the behaviors of rupture nucleation seen in laboratory experiments. In particular, we find that both in laboratory experiments and simulations with a wide range of normal stresses, the nucleation consists of two distinct phases: initial slow propagation phase and faster acceleration phase, both of which are likely aseismic processes, followed by dynamic rupture propagation that radiates seismic waves. The distance at which the rupture transitions from the initial slow phase to the acceleration phase can be roughly predicted by a theoretical estimate of critical nucleation length. Our results further show that the critical nucleation length depends on the background loading rate. In addition, our analysis suggests that critical nucleation length and breakdown power derived from the Griffith crack energy balance control the scaling of nucleating ruptures. Moreover, the background loading rate and loading configuration significantly affect the rupture propagation speed. Furthermore, if the same nucleation mechanism applies to natural faults, the migration speed of foreshocks triggered by the propagation of slow rupture within the nucleation zone would depend on the effective normal stress and hence fluid pressure in the fault zone.

Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics Predicts the Propagation Distance of Frictional Slip

When a frictional interface is subject to a localized shear load, it is often (experimentally) observed that local slip events propagate until they arrest naturally before reaching the edge of the interface. We develop a theoretical model based on linear elastic fracture mechanics to describe the propagation of such precursory slip. The model’s prediction of precursor lengths as a function of external load is in good quantitative agreement with laboratory experiments as well as with dynamic simulations, and provides thereby evidence to recognize frictional slip as a fracture phenomenon. We show that predicted precursor lengths depend, within given uncertainty ranges, mainly on the kinetic friction coefficient, and only weakly on other interface and material parameters. By simplifying the fracture mechanics model, we also reveal sources for the observed nonlinearity in the growth of precursor lengths as a function of the applied force. The discrete nature of precursors as well as the shear tractions caused by frustrated Poisson’s expansion is found to be the dominant factors. Finally, we apply our model to a different, symmetric setup and provide a prediction of the propagation distance of frictional slip for future experiments.

Seismicity change revealed by ETAS, PI, and Z-value methods: A case study of the 2013 Nantou, Taiwan earthquake

On Mar. 27, 2013, a ML6.2 earthquake occurred in the Nantou area of central Taiwan, which caused one death and nearly 90 injured. Two months later, another ML6.3 earthquake struck the same region on June 2, 2013, the epicenter of which is close to the March ML6.2 earthquake. Seismicity is a sensitive indicator of stress rate and inelastic deformation process in crust. Therefore, examination of temporal changes in seismicity is important to understand the preparatory processes of damaging inland earthquakes. In this study, we applied the Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences model (ETAS model) to the earthquake data covering broader Taiwan region, which is maintained by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan, to investigate precursory temporal changes in seismicity for the ML6.2 Nantou earthquake. We regard the March ML6.2 and June ML6.3 earthquakes as an event sequence and especially focus on temporal changes in seismicity prior to the ML6.2 event. Application of more than one model to an earthquake catalog would be informative in elucidating the relationships between seismicity precursors and the preparatory processes of large earthquakes. Based on this motivation, we further applied two different approaches: the pattern informatics (PI) method and the ZMAP method, which is a gridding technique based on the standard deviate (Z-value) test to the same earthquake data of CWB. As a result, we found that the epicenter of the 2013 ML6.2 Nantou earthquake was surrounded by three main seismic quiescence regions prior to its occurrence. The assumption that this is due to precursory slip (stress drop) on fault plane or its deeper extent of the ML6.2 Nantou earthquake is supported by previous researches based on seismicity data, geodedic data, and numerical simulations using rate- and state-dependent friction laws.

The role of viscoelasticity on heterogeneous stress fields at frictional interfaces

We investigate the evolution of heterogeneous stress states along frictional interfaces. Using finite-element simulations, we model the occurrence of precursory slip sequences on a deformable-deformable as well as a deformable–rigid interface between two solids. Every interface rupture creates a stress concentration at its arrest position and erases the stress concentrations produced by previous slip events. While the interface is sticking perfectly between two slip events, erased stress concentrations reappear and survive several cycles of ruptures. Such reestablished stress concentrations are smaller than they were before the rupture. We show that the decrease rate of these stress concentrations is exponential with respect to the number of subsequent events and that the bulk viscoelasticity is at the origin of this history effect. During a slip event, the friction tractions at the interface change almost instantaneously, which leads, between two ruptures, to a relaxation-resembling viscous effect that restores the stress concentration. We describe the decrease rate analytically and highlight that it is proportional to the ratio of the viscous over the instantaneous Young’s moduli, and illustrate it by varying the material properties in our simulations.

Survival of Heterogeneous Stress Distributions Created by Precursory Slip at Frictional Interfaces

We study the dynamics of successive slip events at a frictional interface with finite-element simulations. Because of the viscous properties of the material, the stress concentrations created by the arrest of precursory slip are not erased by the propagation of the following rupture but reappear with the relaxation of the material. We show that the amplitude of the stress concentrations follows an exponential decay, which is controlled by the bulk material properties. These results highlight the importance of viscosity in the heterogeneous stress state of a frictional interface and reveal the "memory effect" that affects successive ruptures.

Precursory change in seismicity revealed by the Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences model: A case study of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake

For gaining insight into the preparatory process of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake and its related statistical feature, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences model (ETAS model) was applied to the earthquake data in Taiwan region. By means of the ETAS analysis for Taiwanese earthquakes larger than a magnitude of 2.4, we found seismic quiescence over broader regions of Taiwan. It was also found that inland areas near the epicenter of the Chi-Chi earthquake showed seismic activation in the period from Jan. 1, 1998 to Sep. 20, 1999, which is just before the occurrence of the Chi-Chi earthquake. The assumption that this is due to precursory slip (stress drop) on the fault plane of the Chi-Chi earthquake is supported by previous researches such as a numerical simulation using rate- and state-dependent friction laws and the observation of abnormal change in crustal displacement for a station of Taiwan GPS network near southern edge of the source area of the Chi-Chi earthquake.

Nucleation and seismic tremor associated with the glacial earthquakes of Whillans Ice Stream, Antarctica

The ability to monitor transient motion along faults is critical to improving our ability to understand many natural phenomena such as landslides and earthquakes. Here, we usedata from a GPS and seismometer network that were deployed to monitor the regularly repeating glacial earthquakes of Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica to show that a unique pattern of precursory slip precedes complete rupture along the bed of the ice stream. Additionally, we show that rupture can be independently tracked by increased levels of microseismic activity, including harmonic tremor, that are coincident with the onset of slip at any location, thus providing a remote means of monitoring stress and rupture propagation during the glacial earthquakes.