Abstract

Precursory seismicity is often observed before a large earthquake. Small foreshocks occur within the mainshock rupture area, which cannot be explained by simple models that assume homogeneous friction on the entire fault. In this study, we consider a frictionally heterogeneous fault model, motivated by recent observations of geologic faults and slow earthquakes. This study investigates slip behavior on faults governed by a rate- and state-dependent friction law. We consider a finite linear fault consisting of alternating velocity-weakening zones (VWZs) and velocity-strengthening zones (VSZs). Our model generates precursory slip before the mainshock that ruptures the entire fault, though the activity level of the precursory slip depends on the frictional parameters. We investigate variations in precursory slip behavior, which we characterize quantitatively by the background slip acceleration and seismic radiation, using parameter studies of the a value of the VWZs and VSZs. The results reveal that precursory slip is very small when VWZs are strongly locked and when VSZs consume only a small amount of energy during seismic slip. Precursory slip is significant around the stability boundary of the fault. Furthermore, the type of precursory slip (seismic or aseismic) is controlled by the amplitude of the frictional heterogeneity. Active foreshocks obeying an inverse Omori law associated with background aseismic slip can be interpreted as the nucleation of the mainshock, though this is different from classical nucleation because the monotonic increase in slip velocity is significantly perturbed by the occurrence of foreshocks. Frictional heterogeneity also affects interseismic slip behavior. Modeled variations in precursory slip behavior and interseismic activity can qualitatively explain the along-dip and among-subduction-zone variations in real seismicity patterns. Because even simple frictional heterogeneity produces complex seismicity, it is necessary to further investigate the slip behavior of frictionally heterogeneous faults, which could be utilized for modeling various real seismicity patterns.

Highlights

  • An increase in seismicity, or foreshock activity, has long been recognized during the period before large earthquakes (e.g., Jones and Molnar 1979; Dodge et al 1995; Abercrombie and Mori 1996; Bouchon et al 2011, 2013)

  • This study investigates the precursory slip behavior of a frictionally heterogeneous fault comprising velocity-weakening zone (VWZ) and velocity-strengthening zone (VSZ) governed by a rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) law (Dieterich 1979)

  • Variations in frictional heterogeneity on the plate boundary fault Our results show that simple frictional heterogeneity on the fault can explain the variations in activity levels of precursory slip before large earthquakes, in addition to transitions in slip behavior (Skarbek et al 2012; Dublanchet et al 2013; Luo and Ampuero 2017; Yabe and Ide 2017) and seismicity between mainshocks

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Summary

Introduction

Foreshock activity, has long been recognized during the period before large earthquakes (e.g., Jones and Molnar 1979; Dodge et al 1995; Abercrombie and Mori 1996; Bouchon et al 2011, 2013). Foreshocks are considered to be driven by the nucleation process of the mainshock and are expected to act as precursors to large earthquakes (Dodge et al 1996; McGuire et al 2005). The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata 1988), which considers only mainshock-aftershock triggering, explains many of the statistical properties of foreshock activity, such as the inverse Omori law and Båth’s law (Helmstetter and Sornette 2003a, 2003b); this suggests that foreshocks are generated by the usual mainshock-aftershock triggering. The physical mechanism of foreshock generation remains poorly understood

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