Precursory Seismic Electric Signals Research Articles

Study in Natural Time of Geoelectric Field and Seismicity Changes Preceding the Mw6.8 Earthquake on 25 October 2018 in Greece.

A strong earthquake of magnitude M6.8 struck Western Greece on 25 October 2018 with an epicenter at 37.515 N 20.564 E. It was preceded by an anomalous geolectric signal that was recorded on 2 October 2018 at a measuring station 70 km away from the epicenter. Upon analyzing this signal in natural time, we find that it conforms to the conditions suggested for its identification as precursory Seismic Electric Signal (SES) activity. Notably, the observed lead time of 23 days lies within the range of values that has been very recently identified as being statistically significant for the precursory variations of the electric field of the Earth. Moreover, the analysis in natural time of the seismicity subsequent to the SES activity in the area candidate to suffer this strong earthquake reveals that the criticality conditions were obeyed early in the morning of 18 October 2018, i.e., almost a week before the strong earthquake occurrence, in agreement with earlier findings. Finally, when employing the recent method of nowcasting earthquakes, which is based on natural time, we find an earthquake potential score around 80%.

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake: a review

The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area. To apply this general procedure, we need two important elements: first, to know when we should start the analysis, i.e., set the natural time equal to zero. This is the time at which the system enters the critical stage. Second a reliable estimation of the candidate epicentral area. If geoelectrical measurements are taken and the VAN method (after the initials of the three researchers Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos) is applied, both these elements become available upon the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity, because its initiation marks the time when the system enters the critical stage, and in addition the SES data enable the determination of the epicentral area of the impending mainshock. On the other hand, if geoelectrical data are lacking, we make use of the following two recent findings by means of natural time analysis: First, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in a large area exhibit a minimum a few months before a major earthquake almost simultaneously with the initiation of an SES activity. Second, a spatiotemporal study of this minimum unveils an estimate of the epicentral area of the impending major earthquake. Two examples are given that refer to the strongest earthquakes that occurred in Greece and Japan during the last 3 decades, i.e., the MW6.9 earthquake in southwestern Greece on 14 February 2008 and the MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on 11 March 2011.

On the Motivation and Foundation of Natural Time Analysis: Useful Remarks

Since its introduction in 2001, natural time analysis has been applied to diverse fields with remarkable results. Its validity has not been doubted by any publication to date. Here, we indicate that frequently asked questions on the motivation and the foundation of natural time analysis are directly answered if one takes into account the following two key points that we have considered as widely accepted when natural time analysis was proposed: First, the aspects on the energy of a system forwarded by Max Planck in his Treatise on Thermodynamics. Second, the theorem on the characteristic functions of probability distributions which Gauss called Ein Sch\"ones Theorem der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (beautiful theorem of probability calculus). The case of the time series of earthquakes and of the precursory Seismic Electric Signals are discussed as typical examples.

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock: a very recent case

The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an Mw5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014 and was strongly felt in Athens. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014 and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014. SES activities that have been recently recorded are also presented. Furthermore, in a Note we discuss the case of the Mw5.3 earthquake that was also strongly felt in Athens on 19 July 2019 (Parnitha fault).

Critical dynamic processes prior to destructive earthquakes

Earth’s telluric field variations, known as seismic electric signals (SESs), when combined with available remote-sensing technique (GPS) deformation field measurements, can enhance the likelihood of elucidating the underlying physics of the dynamic processes prevailing in pre-seismic regions before fatal failure. The update of a power law relation between the lead time of the precursory SESs and the stress drop in the destructive Mw 6.1 earthquake that occurred in 2014 on Cephalonia Island, Greece, led to an exponent value which agrees remarkably well with those previously obtained and falls within the range of critical exponents for fracture. The stability of this exponent confirms the credibility of the above power law and possibly implies that upon SES emission, non-linear dynamic processes with features of criticality govern the pre-focal area. It is suggested for a future study that a proper combination of remote-sensing techniques with ground-based electric field measures be coordinated in order to verify that a region has entered the critical stage.

Study of the temporal correlations in the magnitude time series before major earthquakes in Japan

AbstractA characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a simultaneous distinct minimum upon analyzing the seismic catalog in a new time domain termed natural time and employing a sliding natural time window comprising a number of events that would occur in a few months. Here we focus on the minima preceding all earthquakes of magnitude 8 (and 9) class that occurred in Japanese area from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the day of the M9 Tohoku earthquake). By applying Detrended Fluctuation Analysis to the earthquake magnitude time series, we find that each of these minima is preceded as well as followed by characteristic changes of temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes. In particular, we identify the following three main features. The minima are observed during periods when long‐range correlations have been developed, but they are preceded by a stage in which an evident anticorrelated behavior appears. After the minima, the long‐range correlations breakdown to an almost random behavior possibly turning to anticorrelation. The minima that precede M≥7.8 earthquakes are distinguished from other minima which are either nonprecursory or followed by smaller earthquakes. Furthermore, it is discussed whether Tsallis statistical mechanics, in the frame of which it has been suggested that kappa distributions arise, can capture the effects of temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes.

The critical behaviour of a power law between preseismic electric signals and earthquakes of different mechanism in Greece and Japan

The consistency of the critical exponent in the power law relation between the stress drop of the earthquake and the lead time of the precursory seismic electric signal is checked using new data from the recent M w 4.9 earthquake of strike-slip mechanism that occurred on 12 November 2013 in northern Evia island, Greece and the megathrust M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, in Japan. For the first case, the derived exponent is in excellent agreement with previous ones obtained from all non thrust events analysed by the author and matches the value of critical exponent for fracture. On the other hand, the megathrust Tohoku earthquake follows the behaviour of all thrust events studied by the author, and thus, the calculated exponent significantly deviates from this critical value. The different behaviour between non thrust and thrust-type events could be attributed to the fact that thrust mechanism earthquakes usually occur in collision or subduction zones which are characterised by high accumulation of strain. However, a larger number of thrust events are required in order to obtain reliable results and shed light in the above experimental findings.

Brief Communication: The recent seismic activity in Central Greece in 2013 and its precursory electric signals in terms of criticality

Abstract. Here, we check the obedience of new data, derived from the Mw = 5.4 earthquake on 7 August 2013 in Central Greece, to a previously found power law relation by the author between the stress drop of an earthquake and the lead time of its precursory seismic electric signal (SES). An exponent value α =0.329 has been found which is in excellent agreement with previous ones reported in a series of articles by the author. This value falls in the range of critical exponents suggested by various models for fracture and is very close to a reported one which interconnects the amplitude of the SES and the magnitude of the impending earthquake. The stability of this exponent confirms the credibility of the above-mentioned power law and probably implies that real physical dynamic processes evolving to criticality are present in the pre-focal area when the SES is emitted.

New aspects on the interconnection between precursory seismic electric signal lead time and geodynamics in the northern Aegean Sea

New insights on the deformation process of a confined region in the northern Aegean Sea corroborates the claims that the observed long lead times of the precursory seismic electric signals of the two largest earthquakes which occurred within the last 15 years in the area are attributed to specific geodynamics. Possible underlying physics are also discussed.

On the anomalous changes of seismicity and geomagnetic field prior to the 2011 [formula omitted] 9.0 Tohoku earthquake

In Xu et al. (2013), it has just been reported that approximately 2months prior to the Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake that occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011 anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field have been observed in the vertical component at a measuring station about 135km from the epicenter for about 10days (4–14 January 2011). Here, we show that this observation is in striking agreement with independent recent results obtained from natural time analysis of seismicity in Japan. In particular, this analysis has revealed that an unprecedented minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity was observed around 5 January 2011, thus pointing to the initiation at that date of a strong precursory Seismic Electric Signals activity accompanied by the anomalous geomagnetic field variations. Starting from this date, natural time analysis of the subsequent seismicity indicates that a strong main shock was expected in a few days to one week after 08:40 LT on 10 March 2011.

Testing the critical exponent in the relation between stress drop of earthquake and lead time of seismic electric signal

Abstract. The application of new data in the power law relation between the stress drop of the earthquake and the lead time of the precursory seismic electric signal led to an exponent which falls in the range of the values of critical exponents for fracture and it is in excellent agreement with a previous one found by (Dologlou, 2012). In addition, this exponent is very close to the one reported by Varotsos and Alexopoulos (1984a), which interconnects the amplitude of the precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and the magnitude of the impending earthquake. Hence, the hypothesis that underlying dynamic processes evolving to criticality prevail in the pre-focal area when the SES is emitted is significantly supported.

Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea

Abstract. The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes (Mw > 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Power law relationship between parameters of earthquakes and precursory electrical phenomena revisited

Abstract. The power law relation between the stress drop of "non thrust" earthquakes and the lead time of precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES), obtained by Dologlou (2008a), has been tested by using additional data from the most recent earthquake that occurred on 8 June 2008, in Andravida, NW. Peloponnesus, Greece and from two other destructive earthquakes that occurred in the past in Ionian sea. A critical exponent α=0.33 is derived which is close to the one (e.g. 0.29) reported by Dologlou (2008a). The above preliminary result strengthens the hypothesis that probably signatures of criticality are present in the earthquake preparation and precursory SES processes and that both phenomena are governed by same physics.