Study of the temporal correlations in the magnitude time series before major earthquakes in Japan

Abstract

AbstractA characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a simultaneous distinct minimum upon analyzing the seismic catalog in a new time domain termed natural time and employing a sliding natural time window comprising a number of events that would occur in a few months. Here we focus on the minima preceding all earthquakes of magnitude 8 (and 9) class that occurred in Japanese area from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the day of the M9 Tohoku earthquake). By applying Detrended Fluctuation Analysis to the earthquake magnitude time series, we find that each of these minima is preceded as well as followed by characteristic changes of temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes. In particular, we identify the following three main features. The minima are observed during periods when long‐range correlations have been developed, but they are preceded by a stage in which an evident anticorrelated behavior appears. After the minima, the long‐range correlations breakdown to an almost random behavior possibly turning to anticorrelation. The minima that precede M≥7.8 earthquakes are distinguished from other minima which are either nonprecursory or followed by smaller earthquakes. Furthermore, it is discussed whether Tsallis statistical mechanics, in the frame of which it has been suggested that kappa distributions arise, can capture the effects of temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes.