Precision Of Judgments Research Articles

Precision of Visual Perception of Developing Fires

An aspect of human responses to fires is perceiving changes in intensity. The nature of fires can make this challenging, as flames and smoke are dynamic and change with time. For developing fires, this is in addition to growth occurring vertically and sometimes horizontally, with the footprint of the fire either remaining the same or increasing in size. The present study investigated how precisely humans could visually detect differences in the intensities and growth rates of simulated fires. Using a similar approach to research with non-symbolic visual quantities, a series of experiments compared the precision of judgments regarding which of two simulated fires was greater in intensity or growing faster in intensity when the footprint was fixed or varied. In addition, participants reported what characteristics they used to make their judgments. Precision was significantly worse when comparing the growth rates versus the intensities of fires, and it was better when the fire footprint varied. This provides initial estimates of the precision of mental representations of fire intensity and growth. In addition, participants reported using multiple characteristics, including the size of flames and smoke produced. The present study indicates that humans can precisely detect differences in the intensities of fires using visual cues, but have difficulty when comparing growth rates. We discuss how this suggests that the growth rate may not be a reliable visual cue used by occupants when responding to fires.

Reducing the tendency for chronometric counting in duration discrimination tasks

Chronometric counting is a prevalent issue in the study of human time perception as it reduces the construct validity of tasks and can conceal existing timing deficits. Several methods have been proposed to prevent counting strategies, but the factors promoting those strategies in specific tasks are largely uninvestigated. Here, we modified a classical two-interval duration discrimination task in two aspects that could affect the tendency to apply counting strategies. We removed the pause between the two intervals and changed the task instructions: Participants decided whether a short event occurred in the first or in the second half of a reference duration. In Experiment 1, both classical and modified task versions were performed under timing conditions, in which participants were asked not to count, and counting conditions, in which counting was explicitly instructed. The task modifications led to (i) a general decrease in judgment precision, (ii) a shift of the point of subjective equality, and (iii) a counting-related increase in reaction times, suggesting enhanced cognitive effort of counting during the modified task version. Precision in the two task versions was not differently affected by instructed counting. Experiment 2 demonstrates that—in the absence of any counting-related instructions—participants are less likely to engage in spontaneous counting in the modified task version. These results enhance our understanding of the two-interval duration discrimination task and demonstrate that the modifications tested here—although they do not significantly reduce the effectiveness of instructed counting—can diminish the spontaneous tendency to adopt counting strategies.

Intuitive and Deliberative Decision-Making in Negotiations

Abstract This study departs from common conjecture by challenging the preference for deliberation or intuition, or both, in negotiations. In contrast to prior negotiation studies considering judgment precision, this study builds on underlying personality traits. Therefore, the findings are valid beyond the experimental context. This study conceptualizes and experimentally tests the impact of preference for intuitive and deliberate decision-making during negotiations in Chinese, German, and Polish cultures. Contrasting an emotional with a neutral setting, the paper evaluates the impact preference for intuition and deliberation have on negotiation outcome. The results challenge the frequent assumption made in negotiation analysis: Deliberative negotiators are superior.

Autistic traits predict underestimation of emotional abilities.

People vary in their self-awareness of their own emotions, and this may predict psychological well-being. Evidence suggests that emotional self-awareness is diminished in autism, but these findings may be biased by self-report or confounded by verbal intelligence. To address this issue, we developed the emotional consistency (EC) task, measuring emotional self-awareness through consistency in emotional decision-making. In the EC-Task, we showed participants pairs of emotional images, asking them to judge which evoked the more intense emotional experience. The logical consistency of decision making, based on transitive relationships between stimuli, reflects precision of judgment of experience of emotional intensity, which in turn reflects emotional self-awareness. Emotional consistency significantly correlated with lower self-reported alexithymia but not autistic traits. Instead, autistic traits predicted greater discrepancy between EC-Task performance and self-reported difficulties identifying feelings. Participants with higher autistic traits were more likely to underestimate their emotional self-awareness, possibly because of greater metacognitive difficulties and negative self-beliefs. Our study suggests emotional self-awareness is not diminished in autism and provides a novel method to investigate this issue. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Kinematics of direct reaching in head-mounted and stereoscopic widescreen virtual environments

This research investigated the effects of virtual displays on kinematic parameters during direct pointing at a virtual target. Two virtual displays, three egocentric distances, and three indices of difficulty (IDs) were the independent variables considered in the study. Twelve participants (M = 29.8 ± 3.45 years of age) with normal visual acuity performed a pointing movement in the two VR displays, a stereoscopic widescreen display (SWD) and a head-mounted display (HMD). The movement data were compiled using a motion system. The outcomes revealed that peak velocity and reaction time differed significantly between the SWD and HMD conditions; peak velocity was higher and reaction time was shorter with the SWD than with the HMD. Nonetheless, the effective movement time and confirmation time were not significantly different between the two VR displays. In addition, the distance judgment accuracies of the HMD and SWD were 96% and 86%, respectively; distance was underestimated in the HMD and overestimated in the SWD. Moreover, both peak velocity and reaction time were significantly lower at high ID than at low and medium IDs. The results suggested that using an SWD could be more effective and efficient than an HMD for restoring motor function in upper and lower limbs. On the other hand, an HMD might be appropriate for applications which require exocentric distance judgment precision, such as architecture or medical visualization. Moreover, such findings provide valuable information for developers and designers of human interfaces and applications in virtual reality.

The precision of attentional selection is far worse than the precision of the underlying memory representation

Voluntary attentional selection requires the match of sensory input to a stored representation of the target features. We compared the precision of attentional selection to the precision of the underlying memory representation of the target. To measure the precision of attentional selection, we used a cue-target paradigm where participants searched for a colored target. Typically, RTs are shorter at the cued compared to uncued locations when the cue has the same color as the target. In contrast, cueing effects are absent or even inverted when cue and target colors are dissimilar. By systematically varying the difference between cue and target color, we calculated a function relating cue color to cueing effects. The width of this function reflects the precision of attentional selection and was compared to the precision of judgments of the target color on a color wheel. The precision of the memory representation was far better than the precision of attentional selection. When the task was made more difficult by increasing the similarity between the target and the nontarget stimuli in the target display, the precision of attentional selection increased, but was still worse than the precision of memory. When the search task was made more difficult, we also observed that for dissimilar cue colors, RTs were slower at cued than at uncued locations (i.e., same location costs), suggesting that improvements in attentional selectivity were achieved by suppressing non-target colors.

Integrating evidence-based assessment into clinical practice for pediatric anxiety disorders.

Although evidence-based assessments are the cornerstone of evidence-based treatments, it remains unknown whether incorporating evidence-based assessments into clinical practice enhances therapists' judgment of therapeutic improvement. This study examined whether the inclusion of youth- and parent-reported anxiety rating scales improved therapists' judgment of treatment response and remission compared to the judgment of treatment-masked independent evaluators (IEs) after (a) weekly/biweekly acute treatment and (b) monthly follow-up care. Four hundred thirty six youth received cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), medication, CBT with medication, or pill placebo through the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study. Participants and parents completed the following anxiety scales at pretreatment, posttreatment, and follow-up: Screen for Childhood Anxiety and Related Disorders (SCARED) and Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children (MASC). IEs rated anxiety on the Clinical Global Impression of Severity (CGI-S) and Improvement (CGI-I) at posttreatment and follow-up. Therapists rated anxiety severity and improvement using scales that paralleled IE measures. Fair-to-moderate agreement was found between therapists and IEs after acute treatment (κ = 0.38-0.48), with only slight-to-fair agreement found after follow-up care (κ = 0.07-0.33). Optimal algorithms for determining treatment response and remission included the combination of therapists' ratings and the parent-reported SCARED after acute (κ = 0.52-0.54) and follow-up care (κ = 0.43-0.48), with significant improvement in the precision of judgments after follow-up care (p < .02-.001). Therapists are good at detecting treatment response and remission, but the inclusion of the parent-report SCARED optimized agreement with IE rating-especially when contact was less frequent. Findings suggest that utilizing parent-report measures of anxiety in clinical practice improves the precision of therapists' judgment.

The precision of attentional selection is far worse than the precision of the underlying memory representation

Voluntary attentional selection requires the match of sensory input to a stored representation of the target features. We compared the precision of attentional selection to the precision of the underlying memory representation of the target. To measure the precision of attentional selection, we used a cue-target paradigm where participants searched for a colored target. Typically, RTs are shorter at the cued compared to uncued locations when the cue has the same color as the target. In contrast, cueing effects are absent or even inverted when cue and target colors are dissimilar. By systematically varying the difference between cue and target color, we calculated a function relating cue color to cueing effects. The width of this function reflects the precision of attentional selection and was compared to the precision of judgments of the target color on a color wheel. The precision of the memory representation was far better than the precision of attentional selection. When the task was made more difficult by increasing the similarity between the target and the nontarget stimuli in the target display, the precision of attentional selection increased, but was still worse than the precision of memory. When the search task was made more difficult, we also observed that for dissimilar cue colors, RTs were slower at cued than at uncued locations (i.e., same location costs), suggesting that improvements in attentional selectivity were achieved by suppressing non-target colors.

The Perception of Graph Properties in Graph Layouts

AbstractWhen looking at drawings of graphs, questions about graph density, community structures, local clustering and other graph properties may be of critical importance for analysis. While graph layout algorithms have focused on minimizing edge crossing, symmetry, and other such layout properties, there is not much known about how these algorithms relate to a user's ability to perceive graph properties for a given graph layout. In this study, we apply previously established methodologies for perceptual analysis to identify which graph drawing layout will help the user best perceive a particular graph property. We conduct a large scale (n = 588) crowdsourced experiment to investigate whether the perception of two graph properties (graph density and average local clustering coefficient) can be modeled using Weber's law. We study three graph layout algorithms from three representative classes (Force Directed ‐ FD, Circular, and Multi‐Dimensional Scaling ‐ MDS), and the results of this experiment establish the precision of judgment for these graph layouts and properties. Our findings demonstrate that the perception of graph density can be modeled with Weber's law. Furthermore, the perception of the average clustering coefficient can be modeled as an inverse of Weber's law, and the MDS layout showed a significantly different precision of judgment than the FD layout.

Precision analysis of competition time for CPR by single person of nurses

Objective To probe into the current status of precision for cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) by single person, in order to arouse clinical medical staff ′ attention on the importance of CPR time control. Methods For 42 nurses who took part in single person CPR competition in our city, their 6 operation time had been documented and analyzed including the total time of operation, length of rescue time, length of 30 times compression, the middle time of compression, length of touching arteria carotis for awareness judgment, length of touching arteria carotis for resurrection. Results The total time precision rate of operation was 57.14%, precision rate of rescue time 73.81%, precision rate of 30 times compression 54.76%, the middle time judgment precision rate of compression 50.00%, precision rate of touching arteria carotis for awareness judgment 73.81%, precision rate of touching arteria carotis for resurrection 78.57%. Conclusions The precision rate of single person CPR has low time precision rate, which impacts on the rescue rate and indicates hospitals that they should strengthen the practice of time control and acquire the awareness of time control importance for CPR. Key words: Nurse; Cardio-pulmonary resuscitation; Competition; Time precision rate; Single person

Overconfidence over the lifespan

This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age. Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little evidence that overestimation of one's performance or overplacement of one's performance relative to that of others is correlated with age. Instead, the results suggest that precision in judgment (confidence that one knows the truth) increases with age. This result is strongest for probabilistic elicitations, and not present in quantile elicitations or reported confidence intervals. The results suggest that a lifetime of experience, rather than leading to better calibration, instead may increase our confidence that we know what we're talking about.

Design and Implementation of Shooting Contest Ring Number Automatic Identification System Based on Image Processing

Automatic target-scoring system has great practical value in sports shooting competitions. From the needs of sports shooting competition point of view, this paper used image processing technology and studied a set of sport shooting competition ring number automatic identification system. In this system, the author firstly used the image registration algorithm based on SIFT and achieved accurate registration of two target images before and after shooting. And then OTSU thresholding algorithm was used to eliminate most continuous noise. Then the bullet hole image was intensified by image morphological operation. Finally, through differential operation of the edge features in two plots, the positions of bullet holes were obtained. Bullet holes in the final position by the geometric relationship with concentric circles and polar coordinates automatically identify the number of rings. Verified that the algorithm is faster time, adaptability, judgment precision can reach more than 80%, basically meet the actual needs of sports shooting competition.

Using checklists and algorithms to improve qualitative exposure judgment accuracy

ABSTRACTMost exposure assessments are conducted without the aid of robust personal exposure data and are based instead on qualitative inputs such as education and experience, training, documentation on the process chemicals, tasks and equipment, and other information. Qualitative assessments determine whether there is any follow-up, and influence the type that occurs, such as quantitative sampling, worker training, and implementing exposure and risk management measures. Accurate qualitative exposure judgments ensure appropriate follow-up that in turn ensures appropriate exposure management. Studies suggest that qualitative judgment accuracy is low. A qualitative exposure assessment Checklist tool was developed to guide the application of a set of heuristics to aid decision making. Practicing hygienists (n = 39) and novice industrial hygienists (n = 8) were recruited for a study evaluating the influence of the Checklist on exposure judgment accuracy. Participants generated 85 pre-training judgments and 195 Checklist-guided judgments. Pre-training judgment accuracy was low (33%) and not statistically significantly different from random chance. A tendency for IHs to underestimate the true exposure was observed. Exposure judgment accuracy improved significantly (p <0.001) to 63% when aided by the Checklist. Qualitative judgments guided by the Checklist tool were categorically accurate or over-estimated the true exposure by one category 70% of the time. The overall magnitude of exposure judgment precision also improved following training. Fleiss’ κ, evaluating inter-rater agreement between novice assessors was fair to moderate (κ = 0.39). Cohen's weighted and unweighted κ were good to excellent for novice (0.77 and 0.80) and practicing IHs (0.73 and 0.89), respectively. Checklist judgment accuracy was similar to quantitative exposure judgment accuracy observed in studies of similar design using personal exposure measurements, suggesting that the tool could be useful in developing informed priors and further demonstrating its usefulness in producing accurate qualitative exposure judgments.

Ranking Visualizations of Correlation Using Weber's Law.

Despite years of research yielding systems and guidelines to aid visualization design, practitioners still face the challenge of identifying the best visualization for a given dataset and task. One promising approach to circumvent this problem is to leverage perceptual laws to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of a visualization design. Following previously established methodologies, we conduct a large scale (n=1687) crowdsourced experiment to investigate whether the perception of correlation in nine commonly used visualizations can be modeled using Weber's law. The results of this experiment contribute to our understanding of information visualization by establishing that: (1) for all tested visualizations, the precision of correlation judgment could be modeled by Weber's law, (2) correlation judgment precision showed striking variation between negatively and positively correlated data, and (3) Weber models provide a concise means to quantify, compare, and rank the perceptual precision afforded by a visualization.

Generating a taxonomy of spatially cued attention for visual discrimination: effects of judgment precision and set size on attention.

Attention precues improve the performance of perceptual tasks in many but not all circumstances. These spatial attention effects may depend upon display set size or workload, and have been variously attributed to external noise filtering, stimulus enhancement, contrast gain, or response gain, or to uncertainty or other decision effects. In this study, we document systematically different effects of spatial attention in low- and high-precision judgments, with and without external noise, and in different set sizes in order to contribute to the development of a taxonomy of spatial attention. An elaborated perceptual template model (ePTM) provides an integrated account of a complex set of effects of spatial attention with just two attention factors: a set-size dependent exclusion or filtering of external noise and a narrowing of the perceptual template to focus on the signal stimulus. These results are related to the previous literature by classifying the judgment precision and presence of external noise masks in those experiments, suggesting a taxonomy of spatially cued attention in discrimination accuracy.

A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment

Overprecision—an excessive confidence that one knows the truth—is both the most durable and the least understood form of overconfidence. This article outlines an approach to the study of overprecision that avoids some of the methodological problems of other approaches and better reflects the way uncertainty affects choices in everyday life. We measured the precision in judgment implied by people’s tendency to adjust their point estimates of an uncertain quantity in response to the costs of overestimating or underestimating the correct answer. The results revealed robust overprecision. People adjusted their estimates less than they should have given their actual knowledge, and this effect was driven by their subjective confidence.

Sources of bias and uncertainty in a visual temporal individuation task

Despite a clear ability to detect temporal modulations of visual stimuli in excess of 50 Hz, temporal individuation and serial order judgment tasks can be performed only when stimuli alternate at much slower rates, and the nature of such sluggishness remains unclear. One example of a task with a slow temporal limit is the individuation of a cued letter in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) stream. The present study investigates the nature of the code used to perform such a slow temporal individuation task and the sources of uncertainty involved. The results demonstrate that temporal, rather than ordinal, position in the RSVP stream is critical in serial order estimation, suggesting the involvement of a noisy temporal code. In addition to variability in temporal coding, observers' choices are also limited by a number of other factors, such as categorical errors and biases related to the position of the cue in the letters' stream. Attentional filtering improves categorization, but crucially, it does not seem to increase the temporal precision of judgment. Generalizing the present results, I suggest that perception of order is limited by an internal temporal sampling instability that is distinct and independent from attention and that, similarly to temporal jitter in a clock, acts as a low-pass filter that hinders the judgment of the order of events that unfold too quickly.

Errors in Perceived Self-Motion along a Circular Path Persist in the Presence of Scene Information

Recent evidence suggests that observers have difficulty perceiving path curvature from optic flow when curvature is not accompanied by simulated view rotation. In this study, we investigated whether scene structure could reduce such biases. Landmarks provide reference objects, and a familiar scene might allow self-motion to be perceived from multiple static views. We tested three scenes: textured ground with no landmarks, with landmarks in a fixed configuration, or with landmarks in randomly varied configuration. In the fixed landmark condition, observers were pre-trained to learn the configuration. Observers viewed 1s displays of simulated self-motion along circular paths, with various curvature, and adjusted a pole to lie on their perceived future path. Two pole distances were tested to assess perceived path curvature. Across all conditions, judgments showed errors consistent with underestimation of path curvature, and a bias toward the center of the screen. The presence of landmarks did not reduce these biases, nor improve precision of judgments. In contrast to some previous studies, we found no benefit from rich scene structure. We argue that the biases observed here are due to use of instantaneous optic flow, which provides insufficient information in these conditions even when a scene has rich structure.

Large effects of peripheral cues on appearance correlate with low precision

In a previous study (M. Carrasco, S. Ling, & S. Read, 2004), observers selected one of two Gabors that appeared to have higher contrast (comparative judgment). A peripheral cue preceded one of the Gabors by 120 ms. Results showed that the cue increased the perceived contrast of the adjacent Gabor. We replicated the experiment and found correlations between the precision of judgments and perceptual cueing effects. Larger cueing effects occurred in conditions with less precise judgments and in observers who saw less difference between the stimuli. Further, we asked observers to judge whether the two Gabors were equal or different (equality judgment). This method avoids decision biases but turned out to be less efficient. Cueing effects were absent for equality judgments and trained observers but present for untrained observers with poor ability to discriminate the stimuli. In another experiment, we showed that when observers' responses became more rapid over the course of the experiment, a cueing effect in brightness perception emerged that is unlikely to reflect perceptual changes. Overall, the results show that large effects of peripheral cues on appearance correlate with poor ability to discriminate the stimuli. We suggest that the cue biased observers' decision but did not affect their perception.

Evolucion del la precisión de los juicios de metamemoria en juegos para instruccion apoyada por compiutador

&lt;p align="left"&gt;Los juicios de metamemoria están ligados a la adquisición, almacenamiento y recuperación de conocimiento. Desde este punto de vista, son estimaciones de: 1. Facilidad del aprendizaje; 2. Logro de aprendizaje durante un periodo de tiempo; 3. Sensación de aprendizaje; 4. Confianza en las respuestas dadas. Evalúan el contenido de la memoria mirando hacia adelante o hacia atrás. En este artículo se describe la evolución de la precisión de los juicios de metamemoria y se sugiere un modelo explicativo. En el centro de esta investigación hay dos preguntas: 1. ¿Cuál es el comportamiento de los juicios de metamemoria cuando la evaluación de la evaluación de la facilidad o dificultad toma como criterio el tiempo o el número de ensayos invertidos en la solución de un juego?; 2. ¿Cuál es el comportamiento de los juicios de metamemoria cuando el computador sugiere estrategias de solución al comienzo del juego ―estrategia fija― y cuando la sugerencia es hecha en la medida en que se desarrolla el juego ―estrategia adaptativa? Para responder a estas preguntas se llevó a cabo un trabajo experimental basado en siete juegos de computador sobre razonamiento espacial. Una muestra de 130 estudiantes de décimo grado fue distribuida aleatoriamente en cuatro condiciones: a. juicios de metamemoria basados en tiempo y sugerencia fija de estrategias; b. juicios de metamemoria basados en eventos y sugerencia fija de estrategias; c. juicios de metamemoria basados en tiempo y sugerencia adaptativa de estrategias, d. juicios de metamemoria basados en eventos y sugerencia adaptativa de estrategias. A partir de los datos experimentales construimos un modelo teórico para entender el conjunto de relaciones entre los juicios de metamemoria retrospectivos y prospectivos, y entre la evolución de la curva de aprendizaje y la evolución de la precisión de los juicios de metamemoria. En este modelo, para hacer un juicio prospectivo, se tiene que hacer primero un juicio retrospectivo, de tal manera que el conocimiento previo se relacione con la representación actual del problema. Cuando el ambiente de aprendizaje le muestra al aprendiz un error anterior, él, o ella, inicia una revisión del juicio prospectivo en la etapa anterior. Puede evaluar los pasos hacia atrás hasta la representación inicial del problema. Pero, de acuerdo con la ley del menor esfuerzo, esto no es probable y regresa sólo uno o dos pasos. La importancia de este proceso, sin embargo, está en que constituye un mecanismo poderoso para integrar los elementos del aprendizaje en un proceso secuencial y es registrado en memoria de largo plazo.&lt;/p&gt;