Precision Cosmology Research Articles

Prospects for precision cosmology with the 21 cm signal from the dark ages

Prospects for precision cosmology with the 21 cm signal from the dark ages

GWSim: Python package for creating mock GW samples for different astrophysical populations and cosmological models of binary black holes

Precision cosmology with gravitational wave (GW) sources requires a deeper understanding of the interplay between GW source population and cosmological parameters governing the dynamics of the Universe. With the swift increase in GW detections, it is necessary to develop a tool for exploring many aspects of cosmology and fundamental physics; this tools allows to simulate GW mock samples for several populations and cosmological models. We have developed a new code called GWSim, which allows us to make a large sample of GW mock events from a broad range of configurations, while varying the cosmology, the merger rate, and the GW source parameters (i.e. mass and spin distributions in particular) for a given network of GW detectors. A large sample of simulated mock GW events will be useful for improving our understanding of the statistical properties of the distribution of GW sources, as long as it is detectable for a given detector noise and an astrophysical and cosmological model. It will also be useful to compare simulated samples with the observed distribution of the GW sources from data and infer the underlying population of the GW source parameters and cosmology. We restricted the cosmology to spatially flat universes, including models with varying dark energy equation of state. The GWSim code provides each mock event with a position in the sky and a redshift; these values can be those of random host galaxies coming from an isotropic and homogeneous simulated Universe or a user-supplied galaxy catalog. We used realistic detector configurations of the LIGO and Virgo network of detectors to demonstrate the performance of this code for the latest observation runs and the upcoming observation run.

Theoretical Systematics in Testing the Cosmological Principle with the Kinematic Quasar Dipole

The Cosmological Principle (CP) is part of the foundation that underpins the standard model of the Universe. In the era of precision cosmology, when stress tests of the standard model are uncovering various tensions and possible anomalies, it is critical to check the viability of this principle. A key test is the consistency between the kinematic dipoles of the cosmic microwave background and of the large-scale matter distribution. Results using radio continuum and quasar samples indicate a rough agreement in the directions of the two dipoles, but a larger than expected amplitude of the matter dipole. The resulting tension with the radiation dipole has been estimated at ∼5σ for some cases, suggesting a potential new cosmological tension and a possible violation of the CP. However, the standard formalism for predicting the dipole in the two-dimensional projection of sources overlooks possible evolution effects in the luminosity function. In fact, radial information from the luminosity function is necessary for a correct projection of the three-dimensional source distribution. Using a variety of current models of the quasar luminosity function, we show that neglecting redshift evolution can significantly overestimate the relative velocity amplitude. While the models we investigate are consistent with each other and with current data, the dipole derived from these, which depends on derivatives of the luminosity function, can disagree by more than 3σ. This theoretical systematic bias needs to be resolved before robust conclusions can be made about a new cosmic tension.

Prospects for measuring the Hubble constant and dark energy using gravitational-wave dark sirens with neutron star tidal deformation

Using the measurements of tidal deformation in the binary neutron star (BNS) coalescences can obtain the information of redshifts of gravitational wave (GW) sources, and thus actually the cosmic expansion history can be investigated using solely such GW dark sirens. To do this, the key is to get a large number of accurate GW data, which can be achieved with the third-generation (3G) GW detectors. Here we wish to offer an answer to the question of whether the Hubble constant and the equation of state (EoS) of dark energy can be precisely measured using solely GW dark sirens. We find that in the era of 3G GW detectors 𝒪(105 – 106) dark siren data (with the NS tidal measurements) could be obtained in three-year observation if the EoS of NS is perfectly known, and thus using only dark sirens can actually achieve the precision cosmology. Based on a network of 3G detectors, we obtain the constraint precisions of 0.15% and 0.95% for the Hubble constant H 0 and the constant EoS of dark energy w, respectively; for a two-parameter EoS parametrization of dark energy, the precision of w 0 is 2.04% and the error of wa is 0.13. We conclude that 3G GW detectors would lead to breakthroughs in solving the Hubble tension and revealing the nature of dark energy provided that the EoS of NS is perfectly known.

The MillenniumTNG Project: the impact of baryons and massive neutrinos on high-resolution weak gravitational lensing convergence maps

ABSTRACT We study weak gravitational lensing convergence maps produced from the MillenniumTNG simulations by direct projection of the mass distribution on the past backwards lightcone of a fiducial observer. We explore the lensing maps over a large dynamic range in simulation mass and angular resolution, allowing us to establish a clear assessment of numerical convergence. By comparing full physics hydrodynamical simulations with corresponding dark-matter-only runs, we quantify the impact of baryonic physics on the most important weak lensing statistics. Likewise, we predict the impact of massive neutrinos reliably far into the non-linear regime. We also demonstrate that the ‘fixed & paired’ variance suppression technique increases the statistical robustness of the simulation predictions on large scales not only for time slices but also for continuously output lightcone data. We find that both baryonic and neutrino effects substantially impact weak lensing shear measurements, with the latter dominating over the former on large angular scales. Thus, both effects must explicitly be included to obtain sufficiently accurate predictions for stage IV lensing surveys. Reassuringly, our results agree accurately with other simulation results where available, supporting the promise of simulation modelling for precision cosmology far into the non-linear regime.

A Novel Low-Loss Overmoded Waveguide System for mm-Wave Cosmology

Millimeter-wave signals need to be carried over distances of 1 meter or more with low loss forapplications in precision cosmology such as beam pattern measurements of antennas. We present a novel,particularly simple approach to convert from standard rectangular waveguide to an overmoded circularwaveguide and back again. We give a design for a transition from rectangular W-band (75-110 GHz)waveguide to overmoded circular waveguide and for long circular waveguides made of copper tubes. Themeasured loss of the transitions is below 0.25 dB and the loss in the circular waveguide is 0.7 dB over a 3m length, including circular waveguide joints at each end. This result is consistent with calculations

A path to precision cosmology: synergy between four promising late-universe cosmological probes

In the next decades, it is necessary to forge new late-universe cosmological probes to precisely measure the Hubble constant and the equation of state of dark energy simultaneously. In this work, we show that the four novel late-universe cosmological probes, 21 cm intensity mapping (IM), fast radio burst (FRB), gravitational wave (GW) standard siren, and strong gravitational lensing (SGL), are expected to be forged into useful tools in solving the Hubble tension and exploring dark energy. We propose that the synergy of them is rather important in cosmology. We simulate the 21 cm IM, FRB, GW, and SGL data based on the hypothetical observations of the Hydrogen Intensity and Real-time Analysis eXperiment, the Square Kilometre Array, the Einstein Telescope, and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, respectively. We find that the four probes have different parameter dependencies in cosmological constraints, so any combination of them can break the degeneracies and thus significantly improve the constraint precision. The joint 21 cm IM+FRB+GW+SGL data can provide the constraint errors of σ(Ωm) = 0.0022 and σ(H 0) = 0.16 km s-1 Mpc-1 in the ΛCDM model, which meet the standard of precision cosmology, i.e., the constraint precision of parameters is better than 1%. In addition, the joint data give σ(w) = 0.020 in the wCDM model, and σ(w 0) = 0.066 and σ(wa ) = 0.25 in the w 0 wa CDM model, which are better than the constraints obtained by the CMB+BAO+SN data. We show that the synergy between the four late-universe cosmological probes has magnificent prospects.

The foreground transfer function for H i intensity mapping signal reconstruction: MeerKLASS and precision cosmology applications

ABSTRACT Blind cleaning methods are currently the preferred strategy for handling foreground contamination in single-dish H i intensity mapping surveys. Despite the increasing sophistication of blind techniques, some signal loss will be inevitable across all scales. Constructing a corrective transfer function using mock signal injection into the contaminated data has been a practice relied on for H i intensity mapping experiments. However, assessing whether this approach is viable for future intensity mapping surveys, where precision cosmology is the aim, remains unexplored. In this work, using simulations, we validate for the first time the use of a foreground transfer function to reconstruct power spectra of foreground-cleaned low-redshift intensity maps and look to expose any limitations. We reveal that even when aggressive foreground cleaning is required, which causes ${\gt }\, 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ negative bias on the largest scales, the power spectrum can be reconstructed using a transfer function to within sub-per cent accuracy. We specifically outline the recipe for constructing an unbiased transfer function, highlighting the pitfalls if one deviates from this recipe, and also correctly identify how a transfer function should be applied in an autocorrelation power spectrum. We validate a method that utilizes the transfer function variance for error estimation in foreground-cleaned power spectra. Finally, we demonstrate how incorrect fiducial parameter assumptions (up to ${\pm }100~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ bias) in the generation of mocks, used in the construction of the transfer function, do not significantly bias signal reconstruction or parameter inference (inducing ${\lt }\, 5~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ bias in recovered values).

An effective model for the cosmic-dawn 21-cm signal

ABSTRACT The 21-cm signal holds the key to understanding the first structure formation during cosmic dawn. Theoretical progress over the last decade has focused on simulations of this signal, given the non-linear and non-local relation between initial conditions and observables (21 cm or reionization maps). Here, instead, we propose an effective and fully analytical model for the 21-cm signal during cosmic dawn. We take advantage of the exponential-like behaviour of the local star-formation rate density (SFRD) against densities at early times to analytically find its correlation functions including non-linearities. The SFRD acts as the building block to obtain the statistics of radiative fields (X-ray and Lyman α fluxes), and therefore the 21-cm signal. We implement this model as the public python package Zeus21. This code can fully predict the 21-cm global signal and power spectrum in ∼1 s, with negligible memory requirements. When comparing against state-of-the-art semi-numerical simulations from 21CMFAST we find agreement to $\sim 10~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ precision in both the 21-cm global signal and power spectra, after accounting for a (previously missed) underestimation of adiabatic fluctuations in 21CMFAST. Zeus21 is modular, allowing the user to vary the astrophysical model for the first galaxies, and interfaces with the cosmological code CLASS, which enables searches for beyond standard-model cosmology in 21-cm data. This represents a step towards bringing 21-cm to the era of precision cosmology.

The XXL Survey

Context.X-ray observations of galaxy clusters are impacted by the presence of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in a manner that is challenging to quantify, leading to biases in the detection and measurement of cluster properties for both astrophysics and cosmological applications.Aims.We detect and characterise clusters contaminated by central AGNs within the XXL survey footprint and provide a systematic assessment of the cosmological impact of such systems in X-ray cluster samples.Methods.We introduce a new automated class for AGN-contaminated (AC) clusters in the XXL source detection pipeline. The majority of these systems are otherwise missed by current X-ray cluster-detection methods. The AC selection is also effective in distinguishing AGN and cool-core presence using supplementary optical and infrared information.Results.We present 33 AC objects, including 25 clusters in the redshift range, 0.14 ≤ z ≤ 1.03, and eight other sources with significantly peaked central profiles based on X-ray observations. Six of these are new confirmed clusters. We computed the missed fraction of the XXL survey, which is defined as the fraction of genuine clusters that are undetected due to their centrally peaked X-ray profiles. We report seven undetected AC clusters abovez > 0.6, in the range where X-ray cluster detection efficiency drops significantly. The missed fraction is estimated to be at the level of 5% for the 50 square-degree XXL area. The impact on cosmological estimates from missed clusters is negligible for XXL, but it produces a tension of ∼3σwith the fiducial cosmology when considering larger survey areas.Conclusions.This work demonstrates the first systematic attempt to quantify the percentage of missed clusters in X-ray surveys as a result of central AGN contamination. Looking towards surveys such as eROSITA and Athena, larger areas and increased sensitivity will significantly enhance cluster detection, and therefore robust methods for characterising AGN contamination will be crucial for precise cluster cosmology, particularly in the redshiftz > 1 regime.

Is the observable Universe consistent with the cosmological principle?

The cosmological principle (CP)—the notion that the Universe is spatially isotropic and homogeneous on large scales—underlies a century of progress in cosmology. It is conventionally formulated through the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) cosmologies as the spacetime metric, and culminates in the successful and highly predictive Λ-Cold-Dark-Matter (ΛCDM) model. Yet, tensions have emerged within the ΛCDM model, most notably a statistically significant discrepancy in the value of the Hubble constant, H 0. Since the notion of cosmic expansion determined by a single parameter is intimately tied to the CP, implications of the H 0 tension may extend beyond ΛCDM to the CP itself. This review surveys current observational hints for deviations from the expectations of the CP, highlighting synergies and disagreements that warrant further study. Setting aside the debate about individual large structures, potential deviations from the CP include variations of cosmological parameters on the sky, discrepancies in the cosmic dipoles, and mysterious alignments in quasar polarizations and galaxy spins. While it is possible that a host of observational systematics are impacting results, it is equally plausible that precision cosmology may have outgrown the FLRW paradigm, an extremely pragmatic but non-fundamental symmetry assumption.

Precision cosmology with primordial GW backgrounds in presence of astrophysical foregrounds

The era of Gravitational-Wave (GW) astronomy will grant the detection of the astrophysical GW background from unresolved mergers of binary black holes, and the prospect of probing the presence of primordial GW backgrounds. In particular, the low-frequency tail of the GW spectrum for causally-generated primordial signals (like a phase transition) offers an excellent opportunity to measure unambiguously cosmological parameters as the equation of state of the universe, or free-streaming particles at epochs well before recombination. We discuss whether this programme is jeopardised by the uncertainties on the astrophysical GW foregrounds that coexist with a primordial background. We detail the motivated assumptions under which the astrophysical foregrounds can be assumed to be known in shape, and only uncertain in their normalisation. In this case, the sensitivity to a primordial signal can be computed by a simple and numerically agile procedure, where the optimal filter function subtracts the components of the astrophysical foreground that are close in spectral shape to the signal. We show that the degradation of the sensitivity to the signal in presence of astrophysical foregrounds is limited to a factor of a few, and only around the frequencies where the signal is closer to the foregrounds. Our results highlight the importance of modelling the contributions of eccentric or intermediate-mass black hole binaries to the GW background, to consolidate the prospects to perform precision cosmology with primordial GW backgrounds.

Joint constraints on cosmological parameters using future multi-band gravitational wave standard siren observations* *Supported by the National SKA Program of China (2022SKA0110200, 2022SKA0110203) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11975072, 11875102, 11835009)

Gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary coalescences can be used as standard sirens to explore the cosmic expansion history. In the next decades, it is anticipated that we could obtain the multi-band GW standard siren data (from nanohertz to a few hundred hertz), which are expected to play an important role in cosmological parameter estimation. In this work, we provide, for the first time to the best of our knowledge, joint constraints on cosmological parameters using the future multi-band GW standard siren observations. We simulate the multi-band GW standard sirens based on the SKA-era pulsar timing array (PTA), Taiji observatory, and Cosmic Explorer (CE) to perform cosmological analysis. In the ΛCDM model, we find that the joint PTA+Taiji+CE data could provide a tight constraint on the Hubble constant with a precision. Moreover, PTA+Taiji+CE could break the cosmological parameter degeneracies generated by CMB, especially in the dynamical dark energy models. When combining the PTA+Taiji+CE data with the CMB data, the constraint precisions of and are and , respectively, meeting the standard of precision cosmology. The joint CMB+PTA+Taiji+CE data give in the wCDM model and and in the CDM model, which are comparable with or close to the latest constraint results by CMB+BAO+SN. In conclusion, the future multi-band GW observations are expected to be used for exploring the nature of dark energy and measuring the Hubble constant.

Contemporary Philosophical Perspectives on the Cosmological Constant

The (re)introduction of Λ into cosmology has spurred debates that touch on central questions in philosophy of science, as well as the foundations of general relativity and particle physics. We provide a systematic assessment of the often implicit philosophical assumptions guiding the methodology of precision cosmology in relation to dark energy. We start by briefly introducing a recent account of scientific progress in terms of risky and constrained lines of inquiry. This allows us to contrast aspects of Λ that make it relevantly different from other theoretical entities in science, such as its remoteness from direct observation or manipulability. We lay out a classification for possible ways to explain apparent accelerated expansion but conclude that these conceptually clear distinctions may blur heavily in practice. Finally, we consider the important role played in cosmology by critical tests of background assumptions, approximation techniques, and core principles, arguing that the weak anthropic principle fits into this category. We argue that some core typicality assumptions—such as the Copernican principle and the cosmological principle—are necessary though not provable, while others—such as the strong anthropic principle and appeals to naturalness or probability in the multiverse—are not similarly justifiable.

Extremely expensive likelihoods: a variational-Bayes solution for precision cosmology

ABSTRACTWe present a variational-Bayes solution to compute non-Gaussian posteriors from extremely expensive likelihoods. Our approach is an alternative for parameter inference when Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is numerically prohibitive or conceptually unfeasible. For example, when either the likelihood or the theoretical model cannot be evaluated at arbitrary parameter values, but only previously selected values, then traditional MCMC sampling is impossible, whereas our variational-Bayes solution still succeeds in estimating the full posterior. In cosmology, this occurs e.g. when the parametric model is based on costly simulations that were run for previously selected input parameters. We demonstrate the applicability of our posterior construction on the KiDS-450 weak lensing analysis, where we reconstruct the original KiDS MCMC posterior at 0.6 per cent of its former numerical posterior evaluations. The reduction in numerical cost implies that systematic effects which formerly exhausted the numerical budget could now be included.

Primordial lepton asymmetries in the precision cosmology era: Current status and future sensitivities from BBN and the CMB

Using a new sample of extremely metal poor systems, the EMPRESS survey has recently reported a primordial helium abundance that is $3\sigma$ smaller than the prediction from the standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) scenario. This measurement could be interpreted as a hint for a primordial lepton asymmetry in the electron neutrino flavor. Motivated by the EMPRESS results, we present a comprehensive analysis of the lepton asymmetry using measurements of the abundances of primordial elements, along with cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from Planck. Assuming that there is no dark radiation in our Universe, we find an electron neutrino chemical potential $\xi_{\nu_e} = 0.043 \pm 0.015$, which deviates from zero by $2.9\sigma$. If no assumption is made on the abundance of dark radiation in the Universe, the chemical potential is $\xi_{\nu_e} = 0.046 \pm 0.021$, which deviates from zero by $2.2\sigma$. We also find that this result is rather insensitive to the choice of nuclear reaction rates. If the true helium abundance corresponds to the EMPRESS central value, future CMB observations from the Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 will increase the significance for a nonzero lepton asymmetry to $4\sigma$ and $5\sigma$ respectively, assuming no dark radiation, or to $3\sigma$ when no assumption is made on the abundance of dark radiation.

Deblending Galaxies with Generative Adversarial Networks

Deep generative models including generative adversarial networks (GANs) are powerful unsupervised tools in learning the distributions of data sets. Building a simple GAN architecture in PyTorch and training on the CANDELS data set, we generate galaxy images with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) resolution starting from a noise vector. We proceed by modifying the GAN architecture to improve Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) ground-based images by increasing their resolution to the HST resolution. We use the super-resolution GAN on a large sample of blended galaxies, which we create using CANDELS cutouts. In our simulated blend sample, ∼20% would unrecognizably be blended even in the HST-resolution cutouts. In the HSC-like cutouts this fraction rises to ∼90%. With our modified GAN we can lower this value to ∼50%. We quantify the blending fraction in the high, low, and GAN resolutions over the whole manifold of angular separation, flux ratios, sizes, and redshift difference between the two blended objects. The two peaks found by the GAN deblender result in improvement by a factor of 10 in the photometry measurement of the blended objects. Modifying the architecture of the GAN, we also train a multiwavelength GAN with HST cutouts in seven optical + near-infrared bands. This multiwavelength GAN improves the fraction of detected blends by another ∼10% compared to the single-band GAN. This is most beneficial to the current and future precision cosmology experiments (e.g., LSST, SPHEREx, Euclid, Roman), specifically those relying on weak gravitational lensing, where blending is a major source of systematic error.

Type Ia supernovae data with scalar-tensor gravity

We study the use of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the context of scalar-tensor theories of gravity, taking as a working example induced gravity, equivalent to Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. Winking at accurate and precision cosmology, we test the correction introduced by a time variation of the Newton's constant, predicted by scalar-tensor theories, on the SNe distance modulus relation. We find that for induced gravity the coupling parameter is constrained from $\xi < 0.0095$ (95\% CL) using Pantheon SNe data alone down to $\xi < 0.00063$ (95\% CL) in combination with {\em Planck} data release DR3 and a compilation of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) measurements from BOSS DR12. In this minimal case the improvements in terms of constraints on the cosmological parameters coming from the addition of SNe data to cosmic microwave background (CMB) and BAO measurements is limited, $\sim7\%$ on the 95\% CL upper bound on $\xi$. Allowing for the value of the gravitational constant today to depart from the Newton constant, we find that the addition of SNe further tightens the constraints obtained by CMB and BAO data on the standard cosmological parameters and by 22\% on the coupling parameter, i.e., $\xi < 0.00064$ at 95\% CL. We finally show that in this class of modified gravity models the use a prior on the absolute magnitude $M_B$ in combination with the Pantheon SNe sample leads to results which are very consistent with those obtained by imposing a prior on $H_0$, as happens for other {\em early-type} models which accommodate a larger value of $H_0$ compared to the $\Lambda$CDM results.

Climbing out of the shadows: Building the distance ladder with black hole images

In the era of precision cosmology it has became crucial to find new and competitive probes to estimate cosmological parameters, in an effort of finding answers to the current cosmological tensions/discrepancies. In this work, we show the possibility of using observations of Super Massive Black Hole (SMBH) shadows as an anchor for the distance ladder, substituting the sources usually exploited for such purpose, such as Cepheid variable stars. Compared to the standard approaches, the use of SMBH has the advantage of not needing to be anchored with distance calibrators outside the Hubble flow since the shadows physical size can be estimated knowing the mass of the SMBH. Furthermore, SMBH are supposed to inhabit the center of all galaxies which, in principle, means that we can measure the size of the shadows in any Supernova type Ia host galaxy. Under the assumption that the mass of the SMBH can be accurately and reliably estimated, we find that the Hubble constant can be constrained with a $\approx10\%$ precision even considering current experimental design of ground-based interferometers. By constructing a SMBH catalogue based on a specific choice of the SMBH Mass Function (BHMF), we forecast the constraints on the Hubble constant, finding that a precision of $\approx4\%$ may be within reach of future interferometers.

Second-order gauge-invariant formalism for the cosmological observables: complete verification of their gauge-invariance

Accounting for all the relativistic effects, we have developed the fully nonlinear gauge-invariant formalism for describing the cosmological observables and presented the second-order perturbative expressions associated with light propagation and observations without choosing a gauge condition. For the first time, we have performed a complete verification of the validity of our second-order expressions by comparing their gauge-transformation properties from two independent methods: one directly obtained from their expressions in terms of metric perturbations and the other expected from their nonlinear relations. The expressions for the cosmological observables such as galaxy clustering and the luminosity distance are invariant under diffeomorphism and gauge-invariant at the observed position. We compare our results to the previous work and discuss the differences in the perturbative expressions. Our second-order gauge-invariant formalism constitutes a major step forward in the era of precision cosmology and its applications in the future will play a crucial role for going beyond the power spectrum and probing the early universe.