This study investigates the oxidative coupling of methane on the IrO2(110) surface using TPRS simulations informed by DFT-derived data. We discover that the efficiency of the IrO2(110) surface in generating ethylene is strongly influenced by methane surface coverage. Our simulations reveal that the presence of surface hydroxyl group enhances the yield of C2+ species from methane oxidation, but this effect is counteracted at high methane coverages due to the accelerated formation of CH2OH. In addition, the study reveals that slight modifications in energy barriers at the branching point (C2H4 formation vs. CH2OH formation) significantly affect C2H4(g) production from the simulation, underscoring the importance of precise energetic data for accurate catalytic reaction predictions. The results have broader implications for reactions and catalysts where branching point selectivity determines high-value product yields. Thus, combining surface science with computational analysis is crucial for accurately determining energy profiles of key steps at the branching points.