Precipitation Systems Research Articles

Identifying Robust Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Japan From Large Ensemble 5‐km‐Grid Regional Experiments for 4K Warming Scenario

AbstractTo evaluate the impacts of global warming on local‐scale extreme precipitation in Japan, 720‐year ensemble dynamical downscaling is conducted by a regional climate model with a 5 km grid spacing. Our dynamical downscaling is based on the large ensemble data set called the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). Comparing the historical and 4K warming climates, the annual maximum daily and hourly precipitation are enhanced over Japan due to global warming. The increasing rate of annual maximum daily precipitation is larger over the coast of the Pacific Ocean in eastern and western Japan and the northern parts of Japan. The periods in which the extreme daily precipitation increases in each region depend on the movement of the Baiu front and the number of typhoons from June through September. The 50‐year return value of the maximum 24‐hr land precipitation within 500 km of the typhoon center is 960 mm/24hr in the 5 km experiment. This value is larger by 1.87 times than that of the 20 km experiment. The rate of future increase in the 50‐year return value related to typhoons is 1.30 relative to the present values for the 5 km experiments. The local‐scale quasi‐stationary band‐shaped precipitation system, which is called senjo‐kousuitai in Japanese, sometimes brings local‐scale heavy precipitation to Japan. The senjo‐kousuitai is well reproduced in the 5 km experiments and shows increases in frequency and intensity under the 4K warming condition. This study also discusses the application of our 5 km experiments to hydrological fields.

Opposite Changes in Monsoon Precipitation and Low Pressure System Frequency in Response to Orographic Forcing

Abstract Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale disturbances that form along the quasi-stationary trough of the larger-scale South Asian summer monsoon, producing a large fraction of total monsoon precipitation. Here, we use an Earth system model to investigate the influence of Tibetan and Himalayan orography (THO) on mean monsoon strength and LPS activity. The influence of THO height on LPS activity has not been investigated before. The model simulates decreased mean monsoon circulation and precipitation when THO is removed, but the number of LPS and the meridional extent of LPS activity increase; this is an unexpected, important finding given that LPS are principal rain-bearing systems of the monsoon. The decreased mean monsoon circulation and precipitation on removal of THO are attributed to enhanced mixing of dry extratropical air into the humid monsoon domain, as demonstrated by prior studies. The increase in LPS frequency and the meridional extent of LPS activity is attributed to the increase in magnitude and meridional extent of the low-level meridional shear of zonal wind, which previous work showed amplifies LPS through barotropic growth. Specifically, as monsoon precipitation decreases, the sensible heat-driven low-level trough intensifies and shifts equatorward; this strengthens the shear zone in which LPS grow. Conversely, increasing THO height decreases the magnitude and meridional extent of cyclonic shear over India, decreasing LPS frequency and the spatial extent of LPS activity while increasing total monsoon precipitation. These results demonstrate that LPS activity and total monsoon rainfall can undergo large, opposing changes in response to imposed forcings. Significance Statement Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are propagating atmospheric vortices that deliver a large fraction of seasonal-mean precipitation to agricultural regions of India. The influence of Tibetan and Himalayan orography (THO) on the South Asian monsoon is an active area of research, but its effect on LPS has remained unexplored. Here, a global climate model is used to simulate LPS characteristics for different heights of THO. Flattening the THO reduces total summer monsoon precipitation but increases the number of LPS and the spatial extent of LPS activity. We attribute these LPS changes to a decrease in the magnitude and meridional extent of the hydrodynamically unstable low-level cyclonic shear zone over South Asia that occurs when orography is flattened.

Dynamics of localized extreme heatwaves in the mid‐latitude atmosphere: A conceptual examination

AbstractThis study investigates the adjustment of large‐scale localized buoyancy anomalies in mid‐latitude regions and the nonlinear evolution of associated condensation patterns in both adiabatic and moist‐convective environments. This investigation is carried out utilizing the two‐layer idealized moist‐convective thermal rotating shallow water (mcTRSW) model. Our investigation reveals that the presence of a circular positive potential temperature anomaly in the lower layer initiates an anticyclonic high‐pressure rotation, accompanied by a negative buoyancy anomaly in the upper layer, resulting in an anisotropic northeast–southwest tilted circulation of heat flux. The evolution of eddy heat fluxes, such as poleward heat flux, energy, and meridional elongation of the buoyancy field, heavily depends on the perturbation's strength, size, and vertical structure. The heatwave initiates atmospheric instability, leading to precipitation systems such as rain bands and asymmetric latent heat release due to moist convection in a diabatic environment. This creates a comma cloud pattern in the upper troposphere and a comma‐shaped buoyancy anomaly in the lower layer, accompanied by the emission of inertia gravity waves. The southern and eastern sectors of the buoyancy anomaly show an upward flux, generating a stronger cross‐equatorial flow and inertia‐gravity waves in a southward and eastward direction. Furthermore, the simulations reveal a similar asymmetric pattern of total condensed liquid water content distribution, accompanied by the intensification of moist convection as rain bands. This intensification is more pronounced in barotropic structures than in baroclinic configurations with stagnant upper layers. This study highlights the importance of considering moist convection and its effects on atmospheric and oceanic flows in mid‐latitude regions, as well as the role of buoyancy anomalies in generating heatwaves and precipitation patterns.

Super-enrichment of ultra-low concentration rhenium via synergistic co-flocculation precipitation using CTAB and ferric salt hydrolysis micelles

Super-enrichment and recovery of associated Rhenium (Re) in sandstone-type uranium deposits is challenging due to its sparse distribution and ultra-low contents in raw ores. Conventional industrial processes are extremely difficult to achieve economic recovery of Re with a concentration below 0.1 mg/L from in-situ leaching solutions of sandstone-type uranium deposits. This study proposes a novel approach for achieving super-enrichment ultra-low concentration of Re using a synergistic co-flocculation precipitation system composed of cetyltrimethylammonium-bromide (CTAB) and ferric salt (FeCl3) hydrolysis micelles. Experimental results reveal that the enriched content of Re in the co-flocculation precipitates is as high as 503 g/t, nearly 3353 times higher than that in the in-situ leaching solutions. The synergistic precipitation percentage of Re can reach more than 60%, which is larger than the sum of using CTAB micellar flocculation (30.16%) and FeCl3 hydrolysis micellar flocculation (5.43%) separately. Furthermore, the synergistic co-flocculation and precipitation mechanism of Re is examined by SEM, turbidity, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, Zeta potential analysis, and DTF calculations. Results demonstrate that the ReO4- anions first form ion associations with CTA+ cations through electrostatic force, which are subsequently captured to forms insoluble co-flocculating precipitate via weak intermolecular hydrogen bond force between Fe(OH)3 and ReO4-, which promotes the super-enrichment of the ultra-low concentration Re. In summary, this process presents great potential for the efficient recovery Re from a large amounts of sandstone-type uranium deposits leaching solution, and provides new insights into the enhancement mechanism of synergistic co-flocculation precipitation.

Application of different treatment systems for boron removal from industrial wastewater with extremely high boron content

The aim of the study is purification and environmental management of boron containing industrial wastewater wastewaters comparing the efficiency of chemical precipitation and membrane filtration systems on the removal of boron at high concentrations from wastewater coming from boric acid production process and ground water. In order to eliminate adverse effects and find optimum treatment system, chemical precipitation, electrocoagulation and reverse osmosis processes have been studied. Different chemical precipitants such as poly aluminum chloride (PACl), lime, calcium chloride (CaCl2) and barium chloride (BaCl2) and hydrogen peroxide as oxidant were used. When solution pH was adjusted at 10, boron removal increased to 99.5 %. With application of electrocoagulation, 9 % of SO42-, 80 % of Si and 45 % of B were removed from spring water. At membrane-system, single and double pass BWRO/SWRO membrane system operations were carried out in order. Boron-removal increased 98 % by increasing pH up to 10, and DP-SWRO membranes system at 10-pH was found to be the best system. Obtaining a sufficient result for boron removal from spring water, a hybrid membrane process which contains an electrocoagulation process as a pre-treatment method and a double pass RO membrane system has been developed as an attractive technology.

Removing Interfering Signals in Spaceborne Radar Data for Precipitation Detection at Very High Altitudes

Abstract This study investigated the effects of interfering signals on high-altitude precipitation extraction from spaceborne precipitation radar data. Data analyses were performed on the products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM DPR) to clarify the effects of removing radio interferences and mirror images, particularly focusing on deep precipitation detection. The TRMM PR acquired precipitation data up to an altitude of approximately 20 km and occasionally captured interferences from artificial radio transmissions in specific areas. Artifacts could be distinguished as isolated profiles exhibiting almost constant radar reflectivity. The number of interferences affecting the TRMM PR gradually increased during the operation period of 1998–2013. A filter was introduced to separate the observed profiles into deep storms that reach the upper observation altitude and contamination caused by radio interference. The former frequently appeared over the Sahel area, where the observation upper limits are lowest. The removal of the latter, radio interference, improved the detection accuracy of the mean precipitation at high altitudes and considerably influenced specific low-precipitation areas such as the Middle East. This spatial feature–based filter allowed us to evaluate the results of screening based on noise limits that are implemented in standard algorithms. The GPM DPR Ku-band radar product contained other unwanted echoes due to the mirror images appearing as second-trip echoes contaminating the high-altitude statistics. Such second-trip echoes constitute a major portion of the echoes observed near the highest altitudes of deep storms. Significance Statement Understanding the current state of separation of naturally occurring precipitation signals from artificial interference signals in spaceborne radar data at altitudes of approximately 20 km is critical for gaining a comprehensive picture of the intensity and structure of precipitation systems. In the case of the TRMM PR data, artifacts could be distinguished as isolated profiles with an almost constant radar reflectivity, and interferences gradually increased during the operation period. The removal of radio interference considerably affects the statistics of extremely deep storms. Improved algorithms and observation techniques have expanded the observation coverage associated with the GPM DPR KuPR data, but there are interferences (mirror images) that should be removed for a thorough discussion of very high-altitude precipitation.

Seasonal Differences of Precipitation and Microphysical Characteristics over the Asian Monsoon Region Using Spaceborne Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

Abstract This study aimed to reveal the seasonal climatic variations in the microphysical properties of precipitation over the Asian monsoon region. We used the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar satellite product aboard the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Observatory for 8 years from 2014 to 2021 to statistically analyze the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) and frequency of heavy ice precipitation (graupel and hail). The results showed statistically significant seasonal changes. The microphysical characteristics of large Dm and frequent heavy ice precipitation were observed over the Indian subcontinent and Indochina Peninsula in the premonsoon season and over the western Himalayan region in the mature-monsoon season, which can be related to the intense and deeply developed precipitation systems. The relationship between precipitation rate and Dm was also examined. The results indicated that changes in Dm were not caused only by changes in precipitation rate but were probably induced by changes in precipitation characteristics. In terms of the relationship between the microphysical properties, heavy ice precipitation particles in the upper atmosphere above the melting layer were observed more frequently as Dm near the surface increased. We also studied lower-atmospheric instability by investigating the vertical gradients of the dry and moist static energies. The results indicated that instability properties were different; dry and wet instabilities were dominant in the premonsoon and monsoon seasons, respectively, consistent with the results of the precipitation characteristics. Significance Statement The purpose of this study was to reveal seasonal variations in precipitation microphysical characteristics, such as precipitation particle size and the existence of graupel and hail in the upper atmosphere, by climatological analysis over the Asian monsoon region. In previous studies, microphysical characteristics have mainly been addressed using ground-based observations. However, more sampling is needed to expand our understanding of climatological perspectives; therefore, we used recently available satellite observations. As a result, we found that precipitation particles at the surface were larger, and more graupel and hail existed in clouds in the premonsoon season when less precipitation was observed, compared to the mature-monsoon season when precipitation amount and frequency were abundant.

Diurnal Precipitation Features over Complex Terrains along the Yangtze River in China Based on Long-Term TRMM and GPM Radar Products

Based on the 20-year high-resolution precipitation data from TRMM and GPM radar products, diurnal features over complex terrains along the Yangtze River (YR) are investigated. Using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method, the first (diurnal) and second (semi-diurnal) harmonic amplitude and phase of precipitation amount (PA), precipitation frequency (PF), and intensity (PI) are analyzed. The diurnal amplitudes of PA and PF have a decreasing trend from the west to the east with the decreasing altitude of large-scale terrain, while the semi-diurnal amplitudes of PA and PI depict the bimodal precipitation cycle over highlands. For the eastward propagation of PA, PF is capable of depicting the propagation from the upper to the middle reaches of YR, while PI shows the eastward propagation from the middle to the lower reaches of YR during nighttime and presents sensitivity to highlands and lowlands. According to the contribution of different-sized precipitation systems to PI over the highlands and lowlands, the small (<200 km2) ones contribute the least while the large ones (>6000 km2) contribute the most, but the medium ones (200–6000 km2) show a slightly larger contribution over the highlands than over the lowlands. The propagation of each scaled precipitation system along the YR is further analyzed. We found that small precipitation systems mainly happen in the afternoon without obvious propagation. Medium ones peak 2–4 h later than the small ones, with two eastward propagation directions at night from the middle reaches of YR to the east. The large ones are mainly located in lowlands at night, with two propagation routes in the morning over the middle and lower reaches of YR. Such a relay of the propagation of the medium and large precipitation systems explains the eastward movement of PI along the YR, which merits future dynamic studies.

Study on the modification of fly ash as a coagulant

This study was carried out to produce a complex coagulant containing aluminum and iron salt from coal fly ash by H2SO4 acid. An application of this extracted solution as a coagulant was also investigated by the jar-test process. Fly ash collected at the Electrostatic precipitation (ESP) system in Mong Duong thermal power plant are mainly round and fine particles with diameters ranging from 0.2-8 μm, containing aluminum and iron of 15 and 6% respectively. At a room temperature of 25oC, with 1 M H2SO4 acid solution and the retention time of 20 minutes, the maximum contents of around 60.16 mg.l-1 of Fe and 4.37 mg.l-1 of Al were the most favorable to convert aluminum and iron from mineral forms to sulfate salt-based forms. The produced complex coagulants from fly ash of the Mong Duong power plant are proved to be effective for total suspended solids (TSS) removal from wastewater where the highest efficiency achieved 83.6% at the coagulant solution ratio of 5% (w/w) with a concentration of TSS in the initial wastewater was 60 g.l-1. The positive results from this study open a meaningful approach toward a huge of fly ash produced from thermal power plants as well as other coal-burn-related activities in Vietnam.

Development of a Polar Mesocyclone and Associated Environmental Characteristics During the Heavy Snowfall Event in Sapporo, Japan, in Early February 2022

AbstractIn early February 2022, the Sapporo region, north Japan, experienced record‐breaking snowfall. During this period, a mesoscale cyclonic rotation corresponding to a polar mesocyclone (PMC) was observed over the Sea of Japan by a geostationary satellite. This study investigates important processes involved in this heavy snowfall event with attention to the role of the PMC using a 100‐member regional ensemble forecast. The initial conditions for the ensemble forecast are obtained by a regional‐scale ensemble data assimilation system that assimilates conventional observations only. Several ensemble members successfully predict heavy snowfall in the Sapporo region with an 18 hr lead time. Composite analyses reveal that these better ensemble members predict that a southward‐moving PMC with a precipitation system develops from small vortices over the ocean and approaches to the Sapporo region, whereas worse members instead predict precipitation systems shifted to the north of the Sapporo region. Further composite analyses demonstrate that the better ensemble members have environmental characteristics such as a deeper and colder upper‐level trough and large low‐level baroclinicity, which are favorable for the development of PMCs. In particular, the latter is associated with reverse shear in which PMCs tend to move southward. Therefore, these environmental factors are key to predicting the heavy snowfall event in Sapporo associated with the PMC.

A combined process of chemical precipitation and aerobic membrane bioreactor for treatment of citric acid wastewater

The wastewater generated from citric acid production has a high organic loading content. The treatment and reuse of citric acid wastewater with high organic loading become extremely important. In this study, the performance of calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) precipitation as a low-cost and environmentally friendly pre-treatment method and aerobic membrane bioreactor (MBR) combined treatment system was investigated for the treatment of citric acid (CA) wastewater. At the first step, optimization parameters such as agitation speed (100, 150, 200 rpm), temperature (30, 50, 70 °C), and reaction time (2, 4, 6 h) for Ca(OH)2 precipitation as a pre-treatment method were investigated using response surface methodology (RSM) to achieve maximum chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal. Experimental sets were designed using Box-Behnken Design. As a result of pre-treatment with Ca(OH)2 precipitation, a COD removal efficiency of 97.3% was obtained. Then, pre-treated CA wastewater was fed continuously to the MBR process for 10 days, which was the second stage of the combined process. As a result of the MBR process, 92.0% COD removal efficiency was obtained for 24 h HRT and 10 days SRT. In total, 99.8% COD removal efficiency was obtained when combined process was used and COD concentration decreased from 52,000–114 mg/L. For the treatment and reuse of wastewater from citric acid production, Ca(OH)2 precipitation and MBR combined treatment systems demonstrated an effective strategy.

A downscaling and bias correction method for climate model ensemble simulations of local-scale hourly precipitation

Ensemble simulations of climate models are used to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation, and require downscaling at the local scale. Statistical downscaling methods have been used to estimate daily and monthly precipitation from observed and simulated data. Downscaling of short-term precipitation data is necessary for more accurate prediction of extreme precipitation events and related disasters at the regional level. In this study, we developed and investigated the performance of a downscaling method for climate model simulations of hourly precipitation. Our method was designed to recognize time-varying precipitation systems that can be represented at the same resolution as the numerical model. Downscaling improved the estimation of the spatial distribution of hourly precipitation frequency, monthly average, and 99th percentile values. The climate change in precipitation amount and frequency were shown in almost all areas by using the 50 ensemble averages of estimated precipitation, although the natural variability was too large to compare with observations. The changes in precipitation were consistent with simulations. Therefore, our downscaling method improved the evaluation of the climatic characteristics of extreme precipitation events and more comprehensively represented the influence of local factors, such as topography, which have been difficult to evaluate using previous methods.

A Multimodel Real-Time System for Global Probabilistic Subseasonal Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

Abstract A global multimodel probabilistic subseasonal forecast system for precipitation and near-surface temperature is developed based on three NOAA ensemble prediction systems that make their forecasts available publicly in real time as part of the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). The weekly and biweekly ensemble means of precipitation and temperature of each model are individually calibrated at each grid point using extended logistic regression, prior to forming equal-weighted multimodel ensemble (MME) probabilistic forecasts. Reforecast skill of week-3–4 precipitation and temperature is assessed in terms of the cross-validated ranked probability skill score (RPSS) and reliability diagram. The multimodel reforecasts are shown to be well calibrated for both variables. Precipitation is moderately skillful over many tropical land regions, including Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, and over subtropical South America, Africa, and Australia. Near-surface temperature skill is considerably higher than for precipitation and extends into the extratropics as well. The multimodel RPSS skill of both precipitation and temperature is shown to exceed that of any of the constituent models over Indonesia, South Asia, South America, and East Africa in all seasons. An example real-time week-3–4 global forecast for 13–26 November 2021 is illustrated and shown to bear the hallmarks of the combined influences of a moderate Madden–Julian oscillation event as well as weak–moderate ongoing La Niña event. Significance Statement This paper develops a system for forecasting of precipitation and temperatures globally over land, several weeks in advance, with a focus on biweekly averaged conditions between three and four weeks ahead. The system provides the likelihood of biweekly and weekly conditions being below, near, or above their long-term averages, as well the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) any threshold value. Using historical data, the precipitation forecasts are demonstrated to have skill in many tropical regions, and the temperature forecasts are more widely skillful. While weather and seasonal range forecasts have become quite generally available, this is one of the first examples of a publicly available, calibrated multimodel probabilistic real-time forecasting system for the subseasonal range.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation coverage and their influencing factors in the Sugan Lake wetland on the northern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) is an important indicator of the development or reversal of salt marsh due to its absence in arid desert areas. Many studies have emphasized the differences in factors that affect fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in different temporal and spatial scales. However, few studies have reported on the temporal and spatial variations in vegetation coverage and their response to climate and also on the hydrological environment in inland salt marsh wetlands. Accordingly, based on a wetland community survey, different types of data, such as meteorological data, hydrological data, and Landsat remote sensing image data, recorded during the period from 1990 to 2020 were collected. The characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation coverage in the Sugan Lake wetland over the past 30 years were analyzed using a binary pixel model. Furthermore, a quantitative analysis on the response of vegetation coverage to hydrological and meteorological factors was undertaken. The results of the present study showed that the dimidiate pixel model had a high simulation accuracy in retrieving the vegetation coverage in inland salt marsh wetlands. The vegetation coverage of the Sugan Lake wetland increased with each year from 1990 to 2020, and its annual average was 19.34%. The spatial distribution of vegetation coverage was patchy and decreased from the center to the edge of the wetland. Within the same period, the vegetation coverage showed an increasing trend in Quan-shui and He-hong areas and a decreasing trend in the Shan-hong area. Vegetation coverage was mainly affected by various factors, such as precipitation, lake area, surface runoff, groundwater depth, and residential density, respectively. It was significantly positively correlated with precipitation (R2 = 0.56, P < 0.01), lake area (R2 = 0.50, P < 0.01), air temperature (R2 = 0.46, P < 0.01), and river system density (R2 = 0.52, P < 0.01) and negatively correlated with groundwater depth (R2 =-0.57, P < 0.01) and residential density (R2 = −0.38, P < 0.05). Implicit in these findings are complex mechanisms of change in vegetation coverage that help prevent the degradation of vegetation in fragile ecosystems.

Hydrodynamics and Transport Mechanism of Microfluidic Mixing in Precipitation of Nanodrugs: A Review

AbstractPoor aqueous solubility drugs are a concern of pharmaceutical industries due to low dissolution rates and low bioavailability. Various approaches and techniques address these issues by customizing drug micro–nanonization, as investigated by many researchers. Establishing a compelling synthesis of tailored nanoparticles with highly variable qualities intended for therapeutic applications needs the flexibility to vary particle size, content, crystallinity, and shape. Such an approach necessitates getting to the desired yield and developing a synthetic process that is durable, reproducible, and scalable. However, precipitation techniques to produce nanoparticles are more convenient than other approaches. Liquid antisolvent precipitation is one of the robust crystal manipulation approaches extensively used for producing nanoparticles, where mixing sets the basis to create supersaturation followed by corresponding quality precipitation. Various process intensification equipments are in use for adequate mixing‐based precipitation. Nowadays, microfluidic precipitation system is gaining interest in the production of nanodrugs. Further, the use of ultrasound in a microfluidic system improves the mixing quality by cavitation phenomena. This review focuses on the transport phenomena and hydrodynamics involved in mixing to enhance the mass transfer during antisolvent precipitation of synthesized nanodrugs in the microfluidic system.

A WRF/WRF-Hydro Coupled Forecasting System with Real-Time Precipitation–Runoff Updating Based on 3Dvar Data Assimilation and Deep Learning

This study established a WRF/WRF-Hydro coupled forecasting system for precipitation–runoff forecasting in the Daqing River basin in northern China. To fully enhance the forecasting skill of the coupled system, real-time updating was performed for both the WRF precipitation forecast and WRF-Hydro forecasted runoff. Three-dimensional variational (3Dvar) multi-source data assimilation was implemented using the WRF model by incorporating hourly weather radar reflectivity and conventional meteorological observations to improve the accuracy of the forecasted precipitation. A deep learning approach, i.e., long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, was adopted to improve the accuracy of the WRF-Hydro forecasted flow. The results showed that hourly data assimilation had a positive impact on the range and trends of the WRF precipitation forecasts. The quality of the WRF precipitation outputs had a significant impact on the performance of WRF-Hydro in forecasting the flow at the catchment outlet. With the runoff driven by precipitation forecasts being updated by 3Dvar data assimilation, the error of flood peak flow was decreased by 3.02–57.42%, the error of flood volume was decreased by 6.34–39.30%, and the Nash efficiency coefficient was increased by 0.15–0.52. The implementation of LSTM can effectively reduce the forecasting errors of the coupled system, particularly those of the time-to-peak and peak flow volumes.

Monitoring land cover changes and droughts using statistical analysis and multi-sensor remote sensing data

Climate change is of paramount importance for ecosystems, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The major aim of the current study is to monitor vegetation and land use changes, and run drought assessment using field and satellite data. The main precipitation proportions in the studied region are influenced by the Westerlies, meaning that any variations in these precipitation systems significantly impact the region. The utilized data entailed MODIS images for 16- and 8-day intervals between 2000 and 2013, TM and OLI sensor images recorded in 1985 and 2013, precipitation network data of TRMM satellite between 2000 and 2013, and synoptic data 32-year period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to monitor temporal changes in meteorological station data in annual and seasonal scales. The results indicated that there was a downward trend in 50% of the meteorological stations in the annual scale. This falling trend was statistically significant at the level of 95%. At the end, drought was assessed using PCI, APCI, VSWI, and NVSWI. The results showed that vegetation, forest, pasture, and agriculture areas recorded the strongest correlations with initial precipitation at the beginning of the study. Based on interactions among various factors influencing vegetation indices, reduction in green vegetation, especially the area of oak forests in the studied period, is around 95,744 hectares, which is attributed to lower precipitation rate. Increasing of agricultural land and water zones during the studied years is the result of human management and depends on how surface and underground water resources are exploited.

Multiscale Processes Leading to Heavy Precipitation in the Eastern Nepal Himalayas

Abstract The processes underlying heavy rainfall in the higher elevations of the Himalayas are still not well known despite their importance. Here, we examine the detailed process causing a heavy rainfall event, observed by our rain gauge network in the Rolwaling valley, eastern Nepal Himalayas, using ERA5 and a regional cloud-resolving numerical simulation. Heavy precipitation (112 mm day−1) was observed on 8 July 2019 at Dongang (2790 m above sea level). Most of the precipitation (81 mm) occurred during 1900–2300 local time (LT). The synoptic-scale environment is characterized by a monsoon low pressure system (LPS) over northeastern India. The LPS lifted moisture upward from the lower troposphere and then horizontally transported it into the eastern Nepal Himalayas within the middle troposphere, increasing the content of the water vapor around Dongang. A mesoscale convective system passed over Dongang around the time of the intense precipitation. The numerical simulation showed that surface heat fluxes prevailed under the middle tropospheric (∼500 hPa) southeasterly flow associated with the LPS around a mountain ridge on the upwind side of Dongang until 1900 LT, enhancing convective instability. Topographic lifting led to the release of the enhanced instability, which triggered the development of a mesoscale precipitation system. The southeasterly flow pushed the precipitation system northward, which then passed over Dongang during 2000–2200 LT, resulting in heavy precipitation. Thus, we conclude that the heavy precipitation came from the multiscale processes such as three-dimensional moisture transport driven by the LPS and the diurnal variation in heat fluxes from the land surface. Significance Statement Precipitation in the Himalayas is closely related to the hydrological cycle, floods, and landslide disasters in South Asia. Thus, elucidating the features of precipitation in the Himalayas is important. This study explored multiscale processes leading to a heavy precipitation event that was observed on 8 July 2019 at Dongang in the Rolwaling valley of the eastern Nepal Himalayas. We identified new processes producing heavy precipitation in the Himalayas: the three-dimensional synoptic-scale moisture transport driven by a monsoon low pressure system and the effect of the diurnal variation in heat fluxes from the land surface on the development and movement of a mesoscale precipitation system causing heavy precipitation. These findings broaden our understanding of heavy precipitation in the Himalayas.

Inferring the Properties of Snow in Southern Ocean Shallow Convection and Frontal Systems Using Dual-Polarization C-Band Radar

Abstract We use dual-polarization C-band data collected in the Southern Ocean to examine the properties of snow observed during a voyage in the austral summer of 2018. Using existing forward modeling formalisms based on an assumption of Rayleigh scattering by soft spheroids, an optimal estimation algorithm is implemented to infer snow properties from horizontally polarized radar reflectivity, the differential radar reflectivity, and the specific differential phase. From the dual-polarization observables, we estimate ice water content qi, the mass-mean particle size Dm, and the exponent of the mass–dimensional relationship bm that, with several assumptions, allow for evaluation of snow bulk density, and snow number concentration. Upon evaluating the uncertainties associated with measurement and forward model errors, we determine that the algorithm can retrieve qi, Dm, and bm within single-pixel uncertainties conservatively estimated in the range 120%, 60%, and 40%, respectively. Applying the algorithm to open-cellular convection in the Southern Ocean, we find evidence for secondary ice formation processes within multicellular complexes. In stratiform precipitation systems we find snow properties and infer processes that are distinctly different from the shallow convective systems with evidence for riming and aggregation being common. We also find that embedded convection within the frontal system produces precipitation properties consistent with graupel. Examining 5 weeks of data, we show that snow in open-cellular cumulus has higher overall bulk density than snow in stratiform precipitation systems with implications for interpreting measurements from space-based active remote sensors.

An approach to measure resilience of communities to climate change: a case study in Calabria (Southern Italy)

Climate change effects already represent a serious challenge for people and environment. In particular, changes in precipitation, temperature, and weather systems are increasing the occurrence frequency of natural phenomena such as floods and landslides with consequent negative impacts in exposure and vulnerability of population living in risk areas. Hence, it is important to assess the social vulnerability and the community resilience which describe the ability of social systems to prepare for, absorb, and adapt to risks induced by climate change. In two sample areas located along the Tyrrhenian side of Calabria (Amantea and Lago municipalities, Southern Italy), we performed a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) of community resilience. Based on previous literature, we have selected five macro-indicators of social resilience (awareness, knowledge, information, trust, and social background). As sub-indicators for the characterization of these macro-indicators, we used the answers of the questions on climate change effects of a questionnaire submitted to citizens living in the sample areas, and, then, a specific weight was assigned to each sub-indicator, as well as to the macro-indicators. The multi-criteria analysis allowed to the classification of the studied areas in terms of an index of social resilience and to the individuation of the most influential macro-indicators for each of them. The results show that the two areas, which have similar resilience’s values, are influenced by different macro-indicators: knowledge and awareness for Amantea and information and trust for Lago. The findings of this study can be considered very useful for the management of vulnerable areas to climate change, because they are able to underline the aspects needing attention. In fact, providing information about the nuances of the resilience of community exposed to risks may help decision-makers in adopting and implementing more effective preventive measures to mitigate negative effects of climate change, fitting on local characteristics.