Precipitation Response Research Articles

Revealing precipitation behavior and mechanical response of wire-arc directed energy deposited Mg-Gd-Y-Zr alloy by tailoring aging procedures

Mg-Gd-Y-Zr alloy, as a typical magnesium rare-earth (Mg-RE) alloy, is gaining popularity in the advanced equipment manufacturing fields owing to its noticeable age-hardening properties and high specific strength. However, it is extremely challenging to prepare wrought components with large dimensions and complex shapes because of the poor room-temperature processability of Mg-Gd-Y-Zr alloy. Herein, we report a wire-arc directed energy deposited (DED) Mg-10.45Gd-2.27Y-0.52Zr (wt.%, GW102K) alloy with high RE content presenting a prominent combination of strength and ductility, realized by tailored nanoprecipitates through an optimized heat treatment procedure. Specifically, the solution-treated sample exhibits excellent ductility with an elongation (EL) of (14.6 ± 0.1)%, while the aging-treated sample at 200 °C for 58 h achieves an ultra-high ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of (371 ± 1.5) MPa. Besides, the aging-treated sample at 250 °C for 16 h attains a good strength-ductility synergy with a UTS of (316 ± 2.1) MPa and a EL of (8.5 ± 0.1)%. Particularly, the evolution mechanisms of precipitation response induced by various aging parameters and deformation behavior caused by nanoprecipitates type were also systematically revealed. The excellent ductility resulted from coordinating localized strains facilitated by active slip activity. And the ultra-high strength should be ascribed to the dense nano-β′ hampering dislocation motion. Additionally, the shearable nano-β 1 contributed to the good strength-ductility synergy. This work thus offers insightful understanding into the nanoprecipitates manipulation and performance tailoring for the wire-arc DED preparation of large-sized Mg-Gd-Y-Zr components with complex geometries.

Relationship between precipitation and cloud properties in different regions of Southwest China

AbstractThe relationship between precipitation and cloud properties in Southwest China are investigated by using the CLARA‐A2 cloud parameters data and TRMM‐3B43 precipitation data from 1998 to 2015. Ice water path (IWP) and cloud top height (CTH) are significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in all regions, indicating that ice‐phase processes and cloud development processes are the critical processes influencing precipitation. Precipitation is also directly associated with cloud fractional coverage (CFC) due to the significant positive correlation between CFC and precipitation in all regions except the Sichuan Basin (SCB). A positive correlation between liquid water path (LWP) and precipitation is found in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) and Yunnan‐Kweichow Plateau (YKP), but not in the Western Tibetan Plateau (WTP) and SCB. Notably, the response of precipitation to LWP is not as good as that to IWP in SCB. Precipitation is significantly negatively correlated with ice effective radius (IREF) in WTP and ETP and positively correlated with liquid effective radius (LREF) in ETP, YKP and SCB. IREF and LREF are closely related to cloud microphysical processes. Specifically, small IREF could accelerate the Bergeron process and thus increase precipitation, while large LREF is closely related to the cloud droplets coalescence process. Results indicate that the difference in precipitation between the cold and warm seasons is related to convective available potential energy (CAPE) and low troposphere relative humidity (RH). High CAPE and RH favour the precipitation occurrence in Southwest China. The influence of CAPE and RH on precipitation is more significant in the ETP than that in the WTP, owing to the orographic lifting and moisture transport from the Indian Ocean. Thermodynamic and humidity conditions have a greater impact on precipitation by influencing LREF, LWP and IWP in YKP. In SCB, precipitation shows a strong dependence on CAPE, IWP and LREF, but not on RH.

Future Antarctic Climate: Storylines of Midlatitude Jet Strengthening and Shift Emergent from CMIP6

Abstract A main source of regional climate change uncertainty is the large disparity across models in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Using the latest suite of global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of Antarctic climate change for 2070–99, according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. These storylines correspond to differences in the simulated amount of seasonal sea ice loss and either (i) the delay in the summertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) breakdown or (ii) wintertime SPV strengthening, which together constitute robust drivers of the response pattern to future climate change. Such changes combined are known to exert a strong control over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream, which we quantify as collectively explaining up to 70% of the variance in jet response in summer and 35% in winter. For summer, the expected strengthening and displacement of the tropospheric jet stream varies between a ∼1 and 2 m s−1 increase and ∼2°–4° poleward shift, respectively, across storylines. In both seasons, a larger strengthening of the jet is correlated with less Antarctic warming. By contrast, the response in precipitation is more consistent but still strongly attenuated by large-scale dynamics. We find that an increase in high-latitude precipitation around Antarctica is more pronounced for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift, particularly in summer. Our results highlight the usefulness of the storyline approach in illustrating model uncertainty and understanding the processes that determine the spread in projected Antarctic regional climate response. Significance Statement Uncertainty in future climate predictions for the Antarctic is dominated by the unknown response of the large-scale (global) atmospheric circulation. In characterizing such uncertainty, plausible outcomes of climate response (storylines) are generated from the organization of model projections according to the amount of simulated seasonal sea ice loss and the delay in summertime breakdown/winter strengthening of the stratospheric westerly circulation (polar vortex). The intensity and location of the tropospheric jet stream is strongly dependent on both factors, which strongly influences the near-surface climate response over Antarctica. We find that the simulated amount that Antarctic air temperatures increase by in the future (to the end of the century) is intrinsically related to the projected intensification of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, varying by a factor of 2 or more across storylines for summer. Storylines with greater jet strengthening are associated with less Antarctic warming (reduced poleward advection of air masses from lower latitudes). Similar differences are found for changes in jet position, which we note has a much stronger control on mid- to high-latitude precipitation response. This includes both an enhanced wetting response around Antarctica and drying response farther equatorward, for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift.

The Precipitation Response to Warming and CO2 Increase: A Comparison of a Global Storm Resolving Model and CMIP6 Models

AbstractGlobal storm‐resolving models (GSRMs) that can explicitly resolve some of deep convection are now being integrated for climate timescales. GSRMs are able to simulate more realistic precipitation distributions relative to traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. In this study, we present results from two‐year‐long integrations of a GSRM developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, eXperimental System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (X‐SHiELD), for the response of precipitation to sea surface temperature warming and an isolated increase in CO2 and compare it to CMIP6 models. At leading order, X‐SHiELD's response is within the range of the CMIP6 models. However, a close examination of the precipitation distribution response reveals that X‐SHiELD has a different response at lower percentiles and the response of the extreme events are at the lower end of the range of CMIP6 models. A regional decomposition reveals that the difference is most pronounced for midlatitude land, where X‐SHiELD shows a lower increase at intermediate percentiles and drying at lower percentiles.

Revealing the evolution behavior of multiple carbides precipitation and mechanical response in M54 secondary hardening steel

As a new type of secondary hardening ultra-high strength steel, the evolution behavior of multiple carbides and its effect on the strength–toughness of M54 steel have been studied by subjecting to tempering duration (2– 10 h) at 520 °C. Within tempering of 2– 4 h, there is incompletely dissolved cementite with intra-granular distribution; however, it does not deteriorate the impact toughness. Without the observation of cementite, it shows the largest precipitation density of M2C carbides after 8 h-tempering, with the maximum density of 650 μm−2 and minimum inter-particle distance of 12.3 nm. Prolonged tempering of 10 h does not lead to coarsening due to the low diffusivity of constituent W element and coherent relationship of M2C/matrix interface. However, there is obvious segregation of MC carbides along the long-axis of M2C carbides in growth. The favorable precipitation of M2C carbides mostly contributes to the highest yield strength of 1747 MPa and ultimate tensile strength of 2037 MPa in case of 8 h-tempering. The stable ultrafined martensite blocks (∼0.30 μm) and high ratio of high-angle grain boundaries (∼50%) guarantee the desirable V-notched impact absorbed energy of ∼30 J for the 2– 8 h-tempering. Unfortunately, due to the insufficient ability of arresting propagating cracks, the possible preferential MC carbides-distributed sub-grain boundaries leads to an obvious degradation of impact toughness (∼18 J) in the 10 h-tempered samples.

Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols

Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. A southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (∼−30%) compared to AM and AF (∼−25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.

Linking Future Tropical Precipitation Changes to Zonally‐Asymmetric Large‐Scale Meridional Circulation

AbstractProjected tropical precipitation changes by the end of the century include increased net precipitation over the Pacific Ocean and drying over the Indian Ocean, prompting ongoing debate about the underlying mechanisms. Previous studies argued for the importance of the zonal circulation in the longitudinally dependent tropical precipitation response, as the meridional circulation is often defined and analyzed as the zonal mean. Here we show that the projected changes in the meridional circulation are highly longitudinally dependent, and explain the zonally dependent changes in net precipitation. Our analysis exposes a zonal shift in the ascending branch of the meridional circulation, associated with a strengthened net precipitation over the central Pacific and weakened precipitation in the Indo Pacific. The zonal circulation has minor influence on these projected tropical precipitation changes. These results point to the importance of monitoring the longitudinal changes in the meridional circulation for improving our preparedness for climate change impacts.

Spatiotemporal Variations of the Effects of Aerosols on Clouds and Precipitation in an Extreme‐Rain‐Producing MCS in South China

AbstractPrevious studies focus mostly on the storm‐scale‐averaged precipitation responses to aerosols. Yet, the spatiotemporal variations of the aerosol effects can lead to localized and short‐duration precipitation changes that are more relevant for improving rainfall forecasts. Here, we investigate the cloud and precipitation responses to aerosols during different life stages and in subregions with various cloud top heights of an extreme‐rain‐producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) in South China using the coupled WRF‐Chem model. Results show mostly similar MCS‐averaged precipitation responses between the polluted and clean conditions due to compensations among the subregions. However, the spatiotemporally discretized changes are divergent. Specifically, during the developing stage, aerosols increase precipitation in all subregions through generating larger precipitating hydrometers produced from the accretion of more cloud droplets. The most prominent precipitation enhancement occurs in the subregion with the strongest clean‐condition rainfall. In the mature stage, the CCN activation abates, and so does the aerosol‐induced precipitation increase. In the mixed‐phase (−40°C < Ttop < 0°C) and cold (Ttop ≤ −40°C) cloud top subregions, aerosols also reduce the melting of the ice‐phase precipitating hydrometers, which process becomes more important to precipitation formation during the mature stage. Therefore, the drop of rainfall rate is more significant in these ice‐phase‐involved subregions, bringing the polluted precipitation to be less than that in the clean condition during the mature stage. The substantial spatiotemporal variations of the aerosol effects and the early intensification of heavy precipitation suggest the importance of incorporating aerosols in the modeling and prediction of regional heavy rainfall events.

Strengthened impact of boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation on ENSO development in warming climate

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), an important mode of atmospheric variability, is a crucial trigger for the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the seasonal footprinting mechanism. How the NPO effect on ENSO changes in response to greenhouse warming remains unclear, however. Here, using climate model simulations under high-emission scenarios, we show that greenhouse warming leads to an enhanced influence of NPO on ENSO as is manifested by enhanced responses of winter sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation and wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific to the preceding winter NPO. The strengthened NPO impact is also reflected in an increased frequency of NPO events that are followed by ENSO events. Warmer background SST enhances the wind-evaporation-SST feedback over the subtropical North Pacific due to a nonlinear SST-evaporation relationship. This strengthens the NPO-generated surface zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial western-central Pacific, which trigger ENSO. Increased impact of winter NPO on ENSO could enable prediction of interannual variability at longer leads.

The Response of Tropical Rainfall to Idealized Small‐Scale Thermal and Mechanical Forcing

AbstractPredicting the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall remains a key challenge in Tropical Meteorology, partly due to an incomplete understanding of the effects of different environmental factors on atmospheric convection. In this work, we use numerical simulations of tropical ocean domains to study how rainfall responds to imposed localized thermal and mechanical forcings to the atmosphere. We use the Normalized Gross Moist Stability—NGMS—to quantify the net precipitation response associated with a given net atmospheric heating. We find that NGMS values differ considerably for different forcings, but show that the relationship between precipitation and column relative humidity collapses along a universal curve across all of them. We also show that the contributions from mean vertical advection of moist and dry static energy only approximate the NGMS well at scales larger than a couple hundred kilometers, indicating that general horizontal mixing processes are not negligible at smaller scales.

Human-induced intensification of terrestrial water cycle in dry regions of the globe

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) strengthens the global terrestrial water cycle (TWC) through increases in annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) over global land. While the increase in the average global terrestrial PRCPTOT has been attributed to ACC, it is unclear whether this is equally true in dry and wet regions, given the difference in PRCPTOT changes between the two climatic regions. Here, we show the increase in PRCPTOT in dry regions is twice as fast as in wet regions of the globe during 1961–2018 in both observations and simulations. This faster increase is projected to grow with future warming, with an intensified human-induced TWC in the driest regions of the globe. We show this phenomenon can be explained by the faster warming and precipitation response rates as well as the stronger moisture transport in dry regions under ACC. Quantitative detection and attribution results show that the global increase in PRCPTOT can no longer be attributed to ACC if dry regions are excluded. From 1961–2018, the observed PRCPTOT increased by 5.63%~7.39% (2.44%~2.80%) over dry (wet) regions, and as much as 89% (as little as 5%) can be attributed to ACC. The faster ACC-induced TWC in dry regions is likely to have both beneficial and detrimental effects on dry regions of the globe, simultaneously alleviating water scarcity while increasing the risk of major flooding.

Locally opposite responses of the 2023 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei extreme rainfall event to global anthropogenic warming

The effect of anthropogenic warming on extreme rainfall events is a hot topic in this era of global warming, and increasing attention is being paid to its impact at regional and local scales. We explore the localized response of precipitation during the high-impact “23·7” extreme rainfall event in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region under anthropogenic warming using ensemble convective-permitting simulations. We identify two sub-regions with opposite responses: anthropogenic warming decreased (increased) precipitation in the northern (southern) sub-region of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. Further analysis shows that anthropogenic warming intensified the remnant of Typhoon Dusuari and increased rainfall in its inner core but decreased rainfall in the peripheral spiral rain band. These are the main reasons for the locally inconsistent responses of extreme rainfall to anthropogenic warming. We emphasize that anthropogenic warming, as a global background signal, directly affects the intensity and structure of specific weather systems rather than local precipitation. A high-impact extreme rainfall event, therefore, cannot always be simply attributed to climate warming enhancing precipitation at every location in a particular region.

Role of SST in Seasonal Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone: Insights From AMIP Simulations in CMIP6

AbstractThe western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) significantly influences the East Asian climate and is modulated by tropical sea surface temperature (SST). This study uses 142 AMIP simulations from 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models to quantify the contributions of SST to the interannual variability of the WNPAC. SST forcing accounts for 66%, 77%, and 49% of the WNPAC variance in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. The persistence of the WNPAC depends on the relaying effects of SST in three tropical oceans. CMIP6 models exhibit excessive precipitation response to the Pacific SST, leading to an overestimated (underestimated) Pacific (Indian Ocean) effect in modulating the summer WNPAC. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric model confirm the crucial role of the Pacific in regulating the WNPAC interannual variation and the contribution from the tropical North Atlantic in spring. The tropical Indian Ocean only exerts a minor impact on the WNPAC when excluding the interactions with other oceans.

Improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation prediction of climate models with nudging approach for better initialization of Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal wave train and land surface conditions

Reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction is highly desired due to the great socioeconomical implications, yet it remains one of the most challenging topics in the weather/climate prediction research area. As part of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P) project of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program, twenty-one climate models follow the LS4P protocol to quantify the impact of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) springtime anomalies on the global summertime precipitation. We find that nudging towards reanalysis winds is crucial for climate models to generate atmosphere and land surface initial conditions close to observations, which is necessary for meaningful S2S applications. Simulations with nudged initial conditions can better capture the summer precipitation responses to the imposed TP LST/SUBT spring anomalies at hotspot regions all over the world. Further analyses show that the enhanced S2S prediction skill is largely attributable to the substantially improved initialization of the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train pattern in the atmosphere. This study highlights the important role that initial condition plays in the S2S prediction and suggests that data assimilation technique (e.g., nudging) should be adopted to initialize climate models to improve their S2S prediction.

The Response of Precipitation to Initial Soil Moisture over the Tibetan Plateau: Respective Effects of Boundary Layer Vertical Heat and Vapor Diffusions

Abstract This study investigates the influences of initial soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on precipitation simulation, and the respective effects of boundary layer vertical diffusion for heat (Kh) and vapor (Kq). Results indicate that the responses of boundary layer vertical diffusion to soil moisture are obvious mainly in the daytime. Wetter land surface corresponds to weaker vertical diffusion, which could strengthen thermal forcing and dynamic lifting in the lower atmosphere, and encourage water vapor saturation near the top of boundary layer to prevent the environmental dry air entrainment/invasion, which would be beneficial to more convection and precipitation. Wetter land surface over the TP could enhance the contrast between the cold in the northwestern TP and the warm in the southeastern TP, which would be conducive to the southeastward propagation of precipitation. The simulation of heat and moisture in the boundary layer could be improved by perturbing the relative intensity of Kh and Kq. From the perspective of heat and moisture, Kh affects atmospheric stability, while Kq affects moisture and its vertical transport in the boundary layer. The Kh and Kq have competitive effects on precipitation intensity by influencing the relative importance of moisture and atmospheric stability conditions in the boundary layer. Adjusting the relative intensity of Kh and Kq would deactivate the competitive effects. Stronger Kh but weaker Kq would alleviate the overestimated precipitation by inhibiting vertical transport of moisture to the top of boundary layer and attenuating convective instability in the boundary layer. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand the effects of boundary layer vertical heat and moisture diffusion in the response of precipitation to soil moisture. This is important because boundary layer vertical diffusion is a crucial factor influencing the relation between soil moisture and precipitation. Our results reveal the competitive effects of boundary layer vertical diffusion for heat and vapor on the simulation of precipitation. These results point a potential way toward better understanding the response of precipitation to soil moisture.

KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change

AbstractThis paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society.

On the response of daily precipitation extremes to local mean temperature in the Yangtze River basin

This study explores the response of daily extreme precipitation (PEX) to local mean temperatures (T) of the previous 0-day (T0), 1-day (T1), and 1 to 9-days (T1–9) in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) using the non-stationarity test, binning method and copula theory. Results show that the annual scaling rate of PEX with T during 1961–2020 exhibits positive, negative and positive changing trends from southwest to northeast with the maximum magnitudes in the west, and experiences significant abrupt change only at 14.1% grids. The PEX-T scaling relation in the entire study period is predominantly characterized by a peak pattern over the YRB, with precipitation peaking at about 8 °C in the western highlands and at 25 °C in the east-central lowlands. However, the use of T1–9 yields a positive PEX-T pattern at more grids compared to T1 and T0, which highlights the important role of atmospheric moisture residence time in minimizing cooling artefacts in the scaling estimation. Generally, the full scaling rate of PEX with T in the study period is larger in the west-central part but smaller in the eastern YRB, and more sensitive to antecedent temperatures, with the ranges of −8–20%/°C, −8–30%/°C and −10–30%/°C against T0, T1 and T1–9, respectively. As precipitation intensifies, the full scaling decreases in plateau-mountain areas but increases in low-lying regions, gradually approaching the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling and exhibiting a “super-CC, CC-like and sub-CC scaling” pattern from west to east. Additionally, heavier precipitation events are most likely to occur at higher local temperatures in most areas even with peak structure. These findings provide new insights into the PEX-T relationships, which is conducive to understanding future changes in precipitation extremes and assessing precipitation-related risks under climate change.

An investigation of the relationship between tropical monsoon precipitation changes and stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) is one of the several solar geoengineering options that have been proposed to counteract climate change. In the case of SAG, reflective aerosols injected into the stratosphere would reflect more sunlight and cool the planet. When assessing the potential efficacy and risks of SAG, the sensitivity of tropical monsoon precipitation changes should be also considered. Using a climate model, we perform several stylized simulations with different meridional distributions and amounts of volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. Because tropical monsoon precipitation responds to global mean and interhemispheric difference in radiative forcing or temperature, we quantify the sensitivity of tropical monsoon precipitation to SAG in terms of two parameters: global mean aerosol optical depth (GMAOD) and interhemispheric AOD difference (IHAODD). For instance, we find that the simulated northern hemisphere monsoon precipitation has a sensitivity of −1.33 ± 0.95% per 0.1 increase in GMAOD and −7.62 ± 0.27% per 0.1 increase in IHAODD. Our estimated precipitation changes in terms of the two sensitivity parameters for the global mean precipitation and for the indices of tropical, northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere and Indian summer monsoon precipitation are in good agreement with the model simulated precipitation changes. Similar sensitivity estimates are also made for unit changes in global mean and interhemispheric differences in effective radiative forcing and surface temperature. Our study based on planetary energetics provides a simpler framework for understanding the tropical monsoon precipitation response to external forcing agents.

Effects of Riming on Ice‐Phase Precipitation Growth and Transport Over an Orographic Barrier

AbstractThe evolution of ice‐phase particles within precipitating clouds depends on the environmental properties of the cloud and on physical characteristics of the particles themselves, which can be modified by airflow over steep terrain. Through employing a unique Lagrangian particle‐based precipitation model, this study investigates the sensitivities in ice‐phase particle growth and transport due to variabilities in riming processes over an orographic barrier. This analysis is applied to two wintertime stratiform cyclones sampled by in situ aircraft over windward slopes during the Olympic Mountains Experiment. For both events, we simulate the ice‐phase particle evolution and trajectory within a two‐dimensional prescribed state representative of median observed cloud properties. Sensitivity simulations were constructed based on observed variabilities in supercooled liquid water (SLW) properties and its vertical extent above the melting level. Perturbations of SLW concentration equivalent to the 85th and 15th percentiles of observed values, which typically amounted to a change of less than 0.05 g m−3, resulted in respective increases or decreases in the ice‐phase contribution to surface precipitation mass by as much as 50% and horizontal particle trajectories differences exceeding 10 km. Similar sensitivities were found in response to varying the vertical extent of SLW above the melting level and to adjustments in mean SLW droplet size. The significant precipitation response to small variations in cloud properties principally arises from changing rates of rime mass accumulation and correspondingly, increases in particle fall speed. Considerations for the numerical representation of the riming process and its complex effects on precipitation are discussed.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Water Extraction on Thermal Stratification and Water Quality of a Subtropical Lake Using the GLM-AED Model

This study combined a catchment model and one-dimensional lake model (GLM-AED) to simulate the response of hydrodynamics and water quality of subtropical Advancetown Lake (South-East Queensland, Australia) to future changing climates from 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and increased water demand from a 50% increase in population over current levels. The simulation adequately reproduced water temperature (RMSE of 0.6 °C), dissolved oxygen (DO) (RMSE of 2 mg/L), and other water quality variables, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and chlorophyll a (Chl-a). Warming temperatures dominated the change in thermal structure and hydrodynamic status of the lake under future climate change conditions. Projected changes in precipitation and hydrological response from the upstream catchment might, however, partly offset the warming temperatures under future climate change. Increased water withdrawal due to population growth, which involved water extraction from the epilimnion, showed antagonistic effects on water stability compared to those from climate change. Under a high emission scenario of RCP8.5 during the 2080s, there is an increased likelihood of winter turnover failure in Advancetown Lake. Nutrient concentrations were simulated to decrease from reduced catchment loads under future climate change conditions. However, Chl-a concentrations were simulated to increase, especially during the period after winter turnover, under these future conditions. The depth of the hypoxia front during stratification is expected to decrease and move towards the water surface, attributable to the warming water temperatures and prolonged thermal stratification, which might affect biogeochemical processes and exchange fluxes between the hypolimnion and bottom sediments. These potential changes may present challenges for water resource management under future conditions of climate change and population growth.