Prediction of aphid populations is crucial to the successful application of control strategies. In previous studies clear relationships between aphid catches and meteorological variables were highlighted. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the effects of autumn and winter meteorological variables on the aphid species populations the following spring. The data on all the species caught at two Italian sites (Ozzano Emilia and Budrio) up to 31 May from 1992 to 1999 were used for this study. Different models were found according to the aphid biological cycle (i.e. holocycle, anholocycle, holo‐anholocycle). A fourth group of minor species, designated as ‘others’, was properly modelled as holo‐anholocycle species. A satisfactory fit was observed when holocycle species were plotted against minimum temperature and precipitation in October, anholocycle species against minimum temperature and precipitation in December–January, holo‐anholocycle species and ‘others’ against wind speed and number of frosty days in November, and minimum temperature and precipitation in December–January. Model response was more consistent at Budrio (open flat site) than at Ozzano Emilia (flat site delimited by a hill). A coherent pattern was found with an overall comparison of the estimates against observations. The possibility offered by these empirical models for forecasting spring aphid populations of all species at a given site is clearly of interest. This first study encouraged further investigation aimed at validating models before applying them in practice.