Precessional Forcing Research Articles

Tropical Atlantic stratification response to late Quaternary precessional forcing

The upper ocean circulation in the western tropical Atlantic (WTA) is responsible for the northward cross-equatorial heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cross-equatorial transport is influenced by the thermocline circulation and stratification. Although seasonal thermocline stratification in the WTA is precession-driven, the existence of an orbital pacemaker of changes in the entire WTA upper ocean stratification, which comprises the main thermocline, remains elusive. Here, we present a 300 ka-long record of the WTA upper ocean stratification and main thermocline temperature based on oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera. Our Δδ18O record between Globigerinoides ruber and Globorotalia truncatulinoides, representing upper ocean stratification, shows a robust precession pacing, where strong stratification was linked to high summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere (precession minima). Mg/Ca-based temperatures support that stratification is dominated by changes in thermocline temperature. We present a new mechanism to explain changes in WTA stratification, where during the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts northward, developing a negative wind stress curl anomaly in the tropical Atlantic. This, in turn, pulls the main thermocline up and pushes the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre southwards, increasing the stratification to the north of the gyre. This mechanism is supported by experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2). Finally, we hypothesize that the precession-driven WTA stratification may affect the cross-equatorial flow into the North Atlantic.

Recurring types of variability and transitions in the ∼620 kyr record of climate change from the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopia

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and hominin evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin (CHB). In this statistical project we used recurrence plots (RPs) together with a recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to distinguish two types of variability and transitions in the Chew Bahir aridity record and compare them with the ODP Site 967 wetness index from the eastern Mediterranean. The first type of variability is one of slow variations with cycles of ∼20 kyr, reminiscent of the Earth’s precession cycle, and subharmonics of this orbital cycle. In addition to these cyclical wet-dry fluctuations in the area, extreme events often occur, i.e. short wet or dry episodes, lasting for several centuries or even millennia, and rapid transitions between these wet and dry episodes. The second type of variability is characterized by relatively low variation on orbital time scales, but significant century-millennium-scale variations with progressively increasing frequencies. Within this type of variability there are extremely fast transitions between dry and wet within a few decades or years, in contrast to those within Type 1 with transitions over several hundreds of years. Type 1 variability probably reflects the influence of precessional forcing in the lower latitudes at times with maximum values of the long (400 kyr) eccentricity cycle of the Earth’s orbit around the sun, with the tendency towards extreme events. Type 2 variability seems to be linked with minimum values of this cycle. There does not seem to be a systematic correlation between Type 1 or Type 2 variability with atmospheric CO2 concentration. The different types of variability and the transitions between those types had important effects on the availability of water, and could have transformed eastern Africa’s environment considerably, which would have had important implications for the shaping of the habitat of H. sapiens and the direct ancestors of this species.

Atmospheric controls on precipitation isotopes and hydroclimate in high-elevation regions in Eastern Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum

Tropical Africa experienced large changes in hydroclimatic conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), ∼26.5 to 19 thousand years (ka or kyr) ago. The hydrogen isotopic composition of fossil leaf waxes (δDwax), assumed to record past variations in the hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation (δDprecip), is increasingly being used to study past hydroclimatic change in Africa, and are commonly interpreted to reflect variation in the amount of precipitation through time (i.e., the amount effect). Although there are now many such δDprecip records from tropical Africa, there are few robust δDprecip records from easternmost equatorial Africa of sufficient length and resolution to evaluate the mechanisms governing hydroclimate variation during and since the LGM. We produced a new δDprecip record based on analyses of δDwax in sediment cores collected from Lake Rutundu, situated at an elevation of 3,078 meters above sea level (m asl) on Mt. Kenya. This record displays large variations in δDprecip corresponding with known climate events over the past 25 kyr, including D-enrichment during the Heinrich 1 stadial (H1) and the Younger Dryas (YD), and D-depletion during the Holocene portion of the African Humid Period (AHP). We also observe D-depletion during the LGM relative to the late Holocene, which, considering the amount effect, could be interpreted to imply that LGM climate conditions were wetter than today. However, because other hydroclimate proxies at this site indicate a drier LGM climate at Lake Rutundu, and since precipitation isotopes at this high-elevation site are likely influenced by different processes than at low elevations, we used a single-column Rayleigh distillation model to evaluate temperature and altitude-related effects on high-elevation δDprecip. This revealed that a change in the temperature lapse rate exerts strong control on δDprecip in this high-elevation setting, and that a steeper lapse rate could explain the observed D-depletion during the LGM at our site. Comparison of the Lake Rutundu δDprecip record with other leaf-wax based δDprecip records from East Africa indicates that changes in the meridional precipitation gradient associated with the mean annual position and intensity of the tropical rain belt, in turn driven by precessional insolation forcing, were likely a primary control on East African hydroclimate over the past 25 kyr, thereby contributing to overall regional drying during the LGM.

Hot Air, Hot Lakes, or Both? Exploring Mid‐Holocene African Temperatures Using Proxy System Modeling

AbstractClimate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century, stressing African societies. To provide independent constraints on model predictions, this study compares two notable reconstructions of East African temperatures to those predicted by Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and transient TraCE (Transient Climate Evolution) simulations, focusing on the Mid‐Holocene (MH, 5–8 kyr B.P.). Reconstructions of tropical African temperature derived from lake sedimentary archives indicate 1–2.5°C of warming during the MH relative to the 20th century, but most climate models do not replicate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data. We investigate this discrepancy using a new lake proxy system model, with attention to the (potentially non‐stationary) relationship between lake temperature and air temperature. We find amplified lake surface temperature changes compared to air temperature during the MH due to heightened seasonality and precessional forcing. Lacustrine processes account for some of the warming, and highlight how the lake heat budget leads to a rectification of the seasonal cycle; however, the simulated lake heating bias is insufficient to reconcile the full discrepancy between the models and the proxy‐derived MH warming. We find further evidence of changes in mixing depth over time, potentially driven by changes in cloud cover and shortwave radiative fluxes penetrating the lake surface. This may confound interpretation for glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGT) compounds which exist in the mixed layer, and suggests a need for independent constraints on mixed layer depth. This work provides a new interpretive framework for invaluable paleoclimate records of temperature changes over the African continent.

Environmental changes during MIS6-3 in the Basin of Mexico: A record of fire, lake productivity history and vegetation

The responses of lake productivity, vegetation, and fire events in the Basin of Mexico to orbital changes from late MIS 6 to MIS 3 (146–35 ka) have been studied based on geochemical (Ti, TIC, TOC, C/N), charcoal (CHAR) and pollen data of the sediment core CHA08 from Lake Chalco. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction identifies the MIS 6 as a wetter period with episodes of dry conditions, low forest cover and low fire activity. A sudden change from wetter to dry environments with low to high forest cover and fire activity episodes characterized the end of the MIS 6 (132–130 ka) coincident with high spring insolation. Variations in vegetation composition, with a tendency towards higher forest cover, fire-activity, runoff, and organic matter availability, are recorded during the MIS 5, MIS 4, and MIS 3. However, a reduction in the fire-activity was recorded for the cold and dry MIS 4. Spectral analysis based on the titanium concentration record of Lake Chalco suggests a precessional forcing on runoff variations. We explored the impact of the Intertropical Convergence Zone latitudinal migrations which have been related to the summer insolation at 65° N by comparing runoff data with other sedimentary records from North and Central America. Our results highlight the sensitivity of the high altitude tropical basin to climate variations.

Aeolian dust dynamics in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia, since ~30 ka inferred from loess deposits

Knowledge of the interactions among atmospheric dynamics, dust emissions and climate system is essential to understand the physical mechanisms for the dust lifecycle, their role in loess formation as well as the predictions of future dust concentration. However, these issues still remain relatively poorly known in Central Asia (CA). The extensive loess deposits on the CA pediments provide a promising archive to explore atmospheric dust dynamics and climatic conditions in the past and their association with loess formation. This study investigates the granulometric and magnetic properties of a loess section (named Osh section) in the Fergana Valley, which provides a sensitive record of atmospheric dust dynamics since 30 ka based on radiometric (AMS 14C) dating. The frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (χfd) and the mean grain size are used to reconstruct the broad-scale effective moisture and summer atmospheric dynamics pattern in CA, respectively. The results show that the precession forcing exerts a huge influence on the wind-regime variabilities in CA, but with different physical processes under the impact of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet (NHIS) before and after 15 ka. The origin of the sedimentation rate variations in the Osh loess is also linked to the NHIS-modulated changes of the atmospheric circulation patterns. Either the strengthened westerlies or the increased surface roughness from higher vegetation cover in loess-deposition areas have significantly accelerated the loess accumulation. As a result, these complicated influence factors of sedimentation rate change in the Osh loess section, especially during the Holocene epoch, may hamper accessibility of the authentic dust emission flux and atmospheric dust concentration in CA.

Paleoclimate and sea level response to orbital forcing in the Middle Triassic of the eastern Tethys

The Middle Triassic is thought to have had a greenhouse paleoclimate with a few short humid phases. However, the timing of these humid events, and the extent to which orbital forcing influenced the evolution of climate, are unclear. Here, a cyclostratigraphic analysis has been carried out based on the integrated study of magnetic susceptibility, elemental chemistry and lithofacies from two shallow-marine carbonate platform sections in Guizhou, South China. Combined, these sections (Pohong and Yongyue) span the late Anisian to early Carnian. Spectral analyses of magnetic susceptibility, Fe/Al and P through the studied sections show significant cycles of ~85-m, ~7-m and ~ 4-m. Based on independent age constraints and sedimentation rate modelling, these cycles are interpreted as orbital cycles that reflect 405-kyr long-eccentricity, ~33-kyr obliquity, and ~ 20-kyr precession forcing, respectively. Tuning of the records to the stable 405-kyr long-eccentricity parameter in each section yields a tuned astronomical time scale spanning ~7.4 ± 0.2 Myr, which covers from ca. 244.4 to 237.0 Ma and includes the entire Ladinian Stage. Magnetic susceptibility and Fe/Al data from the studied sections show intervals with relatively high values in the middle-late Anisian (ca. 244.0 to 242.6 Ma), and the latest Anisian to early Ladinian (ca. 241.8 to 240.9 Ma). These geochemical changes, combined with lithological changes, indicate enhanced terrigenous flux caused by the acceleration of hydrological circulation under a warmer and more humid climate. In addition, P data records two sharp falls that appear broadly coeval with the previously postulated late Ladinian ecological crisis. Our new astrochronology also reveals that ~1.2-Myr obliquity amplitude modulation cycles are expressed in the Middle Triassic. The regional sea level changes inferred from sequence stratigraphy and sedimentary noise modelling can be correlated with Tethyan and global sea level change. This work demonstrates the utility and power of sedimentary noise modelling in shallow marine environments for inferring past sea level dynamics. It also furthers constrains the timing of putative Middle Triassic climatic and ecological events.

Profiling interactions between the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoons since 45 ka: Insights from biomarker, isotope, and numerical modeling studies in the Qaidam Basin

AbstractThe Qaidam Basin marks a crucial boundary between the Westerlies and the Asian summer monsoons. Previous studies in the Qaidam Basin have advanced our knowledge of the paleoclimate over glacial to interglacial cycles. However, our understanding of the paleoclimatic sensitivity of the Qaidam Basin to the relative strength of these two climatic driving forces remains limited due to the lack of regional paleoclimatic reconstructions. The Qaidam Basin is proposed as a regional and global eolian dust source during the glacial periods, during which a cold, dry climate is associated with the equatorward shift of the jet stream. On the contrary, paleoshoreline records suggest that a highstand lake stage prevailed in late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) and lasted until 15 ka. To address this conundrum, we have applied an integrated approach to reconstructing the regional paleoclimatic history by combining compound-specific isotope analysis, lake temperature reconstruction, and numerical modeling. Our results show varying paleoclimate associated with the dynamic climate boundary since 45 ka: (1) a wet climate during late MIS 3, when the Asian summer monsoons are strengthened under high summer insolation and penetrate further into Central Asia; (2) a general cold, dry but wetter than at present climate in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when the Asian summer monsoons retreat and the Westerlies become dominant; and (3) three short periods of extreme aridity corresponding to the Younger Dryas and Heinrich 2 and 4 events, when the normal moisture transport via the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoons is interrupted. The numerical modeling supports an increase in the effective precipitation during the LGM due to reduced evaporation under low summer insolation. These results suggest that the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoons alternately controlled the climate in the Qaidam Basin in response to precessional forcing during the late Pleistocene.

Hydroclimate change in subtropical South Africa during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period

The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264–3.025 Ma) of the Pliocene epoch has been proposed as an analog for future climate scenarios. Disagreement between the paleoenvironmental reconstruction and model simulations of the climate in subtropical regions for this period suggests that more investigation of the subtropical climate variability of the mPWP is needed. This study presents pollen, microcharcoal and benthic foraminifera oxygen isotope records generated from marine sediment cores of International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Exp. 361 Site U1479 from the Cape Basin offshore of South Africa for the period between 3.337 and 2.875 Ma. With an average sample resolution of 3 ka, this record represents the highest-resolution record of mPWP vegetation change from the region. Our results indicate that the vegetation during the mPWP was dominated by fynbos (species-rich heathy vegetation in the Cape Floristic Region) with variable proportions of Ericaceae. Moreover, the development of the Afrotemperate forest (tall, multilayered indigenous forests in South Africa) reflects shifts in the amounts of precipitation between winter and summer in the year-round rainfall zone. The vegetation variation is probably influenced by the latitudinal insolation gradient in response to precession forcing. Several glacials depicted by the benthic foraminifera oxygen isotope record were characterized by lower percentage values of Restionaceae, higher percentage values of ericoid fynbos and Afrotemperate forest. These events correspond well with cooler SE Atlantic sea surface temperatures driven by interactions of both atmospheric and oceanographic processes. The cooler sea surface temperatures attributed to Antarctic ice sheet expansion, reduced Agulhas leakage (heat and salt transfer from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean) and/or intensified southern Benguela upwelling, resulted in less precipitation in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa.

Mediterranean Outflow Water dynamics across the middle Pleistocene transition based on a 1.3 million-year benthic foraminiferal record off the Portuguese margin

Reconstruction of the Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) dynamics in the geologic past contributes to exploring its influence on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and global climate. The middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) is one of the most important characteristics of Quaternary climate change, but until now, research on the MOW variability during this time interval has been limited. To decipher the MOW variability over the last 1.3 myr, this work presents the first continuous and high-resolution (∼2 kyr) foraminiferal stable oxygen and carbon isotopes and benthic foraminiferal records from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1391, which was drilled off the Portuguese margin in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and is currently bathed by the lower MOW core. Based on spectral analysis results of the foraminiferal δ18O record, the MPT peaked from 0.9 to 0.7 Ma. The ‘epibenthos group’ was previously found attached to elevated substrates only within the MOW current and more abundant at higher current velocities, so the relative abundance of the ‘elevated epibenthos group’ was adopted as an indicator of MOW strength in this study. The MOW indicator suggests that the MOW strengthened during MIS 1, MIS 5, MIS 7, MIS 9, MIS 11, MIS 13, MIS 15, MIS 17, early MIS 18 to late MIS 19, MIS 21, MISs 23–25, MISs 28–30, early MIS 34 to MIS 35, early MIS 36 to late MIS 37 and MIS 40 with a ∼100 kyr cycle. Superimposed on the long-term variability of the MOW current, the ∼41-kyr and ∼20-kyr cyclic fluctuations are also evident, whereby the ∼41-kyr cycle is more significant. The results of cross-spectral analyses indicate that the ∼20-kyr cyclic variation in the MOW intensity was drived by the precession forcing; the ∼41-kyr cyclic variation in the pre- MPT MOW dynamics and the ∼100-kyr cyclic variation in the post-MPT MOW dynamics were strongly controlled by the Earth’s obliquity. The variation in the abundance of the elevated epibenthos group was dominated by the ∼41-kyr cycle prior to the MPT and by the ∼100-kyr cycle after the MPT, which suggested there was a MPT-related shift in the MOW dynamics. Benthic δ13C record of the last 0.56 myr shows precessional (23-kyr) and glacial-interglacial (∼100 kyr) cycles, indicating cyclic variations in bottom water ventilation. Enhanced ventilation coincides with precession maxima and reduced ventilation with precession minima. Bottom water was well ventilated by MOW during the interglacial periods and by GNAIW during the glacial periods, and pooly ventilated during the glaical terminations.

Combination of insolation and ice-sheet forcing drive enhanced humidity in northern subtropical regions during MIS 13

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13, ∼533–478 ka, has received particular attention due to the unexpected enhancement of monsoon systems under a cool climate characterized by lower atmospheric CO2 and larger ice volume than many other interglacials. Key questions remain about its regional expression (intensity, climate variability, length), and underlying forcing factors, in particular at the mid-latitudes. Here we examine the SW Iberian vegetation, terrestrial climate and sea surface temperature (SST) variability during MIS 13 by combining pollen and biomarker data from IODP Site U1385 with climate-model experiments. We show, for the first time, that despite strong precessional forcing, MIS 13 stands out for its large forest expansions with a reduced Mediterranean character alternating with muted forest contractions, indicating that this stage is marked by a cool-temperate climate regime with high levels of humidity. Results of our data-model comparison reveal that MIS 13 orbitally driven SW Iberian climate and vegetation changes are modulated by the relatively strong ice-sheet forcing. We find that the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets prescribed at the MIS 13 climate optimum reinforce the insolation effect by increasing the tree fraction and both winter and summer precipitation. We propose that the interactions between ice-sheets and major atmospheric circulation systems may have resulted in the persistent influence of the mid-latitude cells over the SW Iberian region, which led to intensified moisture availability and reduced seasonality, and, in turn, to a pronounced expansion of the temperate forest.

Testing for astronomical forcing of cycles and gamma ray signals in outer shelf/upper slope, mixed siliciclastic-carbonates: Upper Oligocene, New Zealand

We evaluate whether outer shelf/upper slope settings preserve a record of astronomical forcing using gamma ray logs from the upper Oligocene (upper Chattian) Tikorangi Formation, onshore Taranaki Basin, North Island, New Zealand. The formation is a siliciclastic‑carbonate succession deposited in outer neritic to upper bathyal depths at paleolatitudes of c. 45oS. Gamma ray and sonic logs calibrated to core indicate four lithofacies based on percent carbonate. These are calcareous siliciclastic mudrock (highest gamma ray values), highly calcareous siltstones (high gamma ray values), very fine to fine siliciclastic muddy packstones (intermediate gamma), and winnowed very fine to medium grain-dominated packstones and grainstones (low gamma). Detrended gamma ray logs were tuned using minimal tuning methods (405 kyr long eccentricity cycle or, where this was poorly developed, the ~100 kyr short eccentricity cycle) with sedimentation rates tested statistically against astronomical forcing. The tuned data show well developed long- and short-term eccentricity, obliquity, and a weak precessional forcing. Obliquity modulation is observed at the 1.2 Myr scale (one well) and 175 kyr scale (two wells). The floating time scale was tied to the absolute time scale via published biostratigraphy, the La2004 eccentricity solution, the Atlantic ODP site 1264 δ18O record, and the Mi-1 isotope event at c.23 Ma. Sea-level fluctuations typically were moderate (20 to 40 m) estimated from the δ18O record. The high gamma siliciclastic-prone units formed during warmer and wetter phases (and possibly slightly higher sea levels), whereas the cleaner carbonates with abundant inner-shelf-derived fine carbonate developed during cooler, drier phases (and possibly slightly lower sea levels). Gamma ray logs from outer shelf/upper slope settings provide valuable data sets for documenting the effects of astronomical forcing on the sedimentary record. The study supports climate models for New Zealand which predict generally increased precipitation with warming over the next 100 years. The study appears to be the first to record astronomical forcing in the Oligocene marine record of New Zealand.

Characteristics of a precessing flow under the influence of a convecting temperature field in a spheroidal shell

We present results from direct numerical simulations of flows in spherical and oblate spheroidal shells, driven both by precession and thermal convection, with Ekman number , non-diffusive Rayleigh numbers from to and unity Prandtl number. The applied precessional forcing spans seven orders of magnitude. Our experiments show a clear transition between a convective state and a precessing flow that can be approximated by a reduced dynamical model. The change in the flow is apparent in visualizations and a decomposition of the velocity into symmetric and antisymmetric components. For the flow dominated by precession, some parameter combinations show two stable solutions that can be realized by a hysteresis or a strong thermal forcing. An increase of the Rayleigh number at a constant precession rate exhibits established scaling properties for the heat transfer, with exponents and .

Persistent influence of obliquity on ice age terminations since the Middle Pleistocene transition.

Radiometric dating of glacial terminations over the past 640,000 years suggests pacing by Earth's climatic precession, with each glacial-interglacial period spanning four or five cycles of ~20,000 years. However, the lack of firm age estimates for older Pleistocene terminations confounds attempts to test the persistence of precession forcing. We combine an Italian speleothem record anchored by a uranium-lead chronology with North Atlantic ocean data to show that the first two deglaciations of the so-called 100,000-year world are separated by two obliquity cycles, with each termination starting at the same high phase of obliquity, but at opposing phases of precession. An assessment of 11 radiometrically dated terminations spanning the past million years suggests that obliquity exerted a persistent influence on not only their initiation but also their duration.

Detection of significant climatic precession variability in early Pleistocene glacial cycles

Despite having a large influence on summer insolation, climatic precession is thought to account for little variance in early Pleistocene proxies of ice volume and deep-water temperature. Various mechanisms have been suggested to account for the dearth of precession variability, including meridional insolation gradients, interhemispheric cancellation of ice-volume changes, and antiphasing between the duration and intensity of summer insolation. We employ a method termed Empirical Nonlinear Orbital Fitting (ENOF) to estimate the amplitudes of obliquity and precession forcing in early Pleistocene proxies and their respective leads or lags relative to the timing of orbital variations. Analysis of a high-resolution North Atlantic benthic δ18O record, comprising data from IODP sites U1308 and U1313, indicates a larger precession contribution than previously recognized, with an average precession-to-obliquity amplitude ratio of 0.51 (0.30-0.76 95% confidence interval) in the rate-of-change of δ18O between 3 and 1 Ma. Averaged when eccentricity exceeds 0.05, this ratio rises to 1.18 (0.84-1.53). Additional support for precession's importance in the early Pleistocene comes from its estimated amplitude covarying with eccentricity, analyses of other benthic δ18O records yielding similar orbital amplitude ratios, and use of an orbitally-independent timescale also showing significant precession. Precession in phase with Northern Hemisphere summer intensity steadily intensifies throughout the Pleistocene, in agreement with its more common identification during the late Pleistocene. A Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and energy balance model run over the early Pleistocene predicts orbital amplitudes consistent with observations when a cooling commensurate with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is imposed. These results provide strong evidence that glaciation is influenced by climatic precession during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, and are consistent with hypotheses that glaciation is controlled by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation.

Precessing cube: resonant excitation of modes and triadic resonance

Numerical simulations of the response flow in a fluid-filled rotating cube that is subjected to precessional forcing are examined over a wide range of rotation, precession and forcing frequencies. The responses are shown to correspond to resonantly excited inertial modes of the rotating cube that have the same spatio-temporal symmetry as the precessional forcing and, under certain conditions, the response flow loses stability via symmetry breaking that is intricately associated with a triadic resonance between the forced flow and two free inertial modes whose spatio-temporal symmetries do not coincide with that of the precessional forcing.

Differential ice volume and orbital modulation of Quaternary moisture patterns between Central and East Asia

Desertification is of pressing environmental concern in large parts of Asia and directly affects millions of people. Arid Central Asia (ACA) in particular is highly sensitive to desertification and environmental change. Climate change in ACA may be driven by westerly circulation or monsoon variation. However, no consensus exists over their relative importance during the Quaternary and this greatly restricts our understanding of how this region may be affected by future climate change. Here we use the most detailed luminescence dating age model yet produced for ACA for three loess records in the Tianshan Mountains spanning the past 250 ka to show a sharp dichotomy in moisture variation between lowland and high mountain areas. The lowland areas of ACA are subjected to persistent aridity during past 250 ka, while highland areas clearly show dry-glacial and moist-interglacial changes, synchronous to moisture variability in monsoonal East Asia, and both co-varying with global ice volume and greenhouse gas (GHG) variation. In contrast, moisture variability across ACA within interglacials varies inversely with insolation-driven precessional changes. This is directly out of phase with the moisture changes of East Asia, which co-vary with precessional insolation changes, and indicates the influence of Westerly circulation in ACA. Our Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model simulations further reveal that coupled ice volume and GHG variations dominated climatic variability in both ACA and East Asia over glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the out of phase relationship between the intensity of the Westerly and East Asian monsoon systems during interglacial periods indicates that precessional forcing is responsible for differences in moisture patterns between ACA and East Asia. These observations indicate that moisture levels will not increase even in high altitude regions of ACA over the next several millennia; rather desertification is likely to worsen resulting from stabilization of the Westerlies as a result of low summer insolation.

Holocene vegetation patterns in southern Lithuania indicate astronomical forcing on the millennial and centennial time scales

The Earth’s biota originated and developed to its current complex state through interacting with multilevel physical forcing of our planet’s climate and near and outer space phenomena. In the present study, we focus on the time scale of hundreds to thousands of years in the most recent time interval – the Holocene. Using a pollen paleocommunity dataset from southern Lithuania (Čepkeliai bog) and applying spectral analysis techniques, we tested this record for the presence of statistically significant cyclicities, which can be observed in past solar activity. The time series of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) scores, which in our case are assumed to reflect temperature variations, and Tsallis entropy-related community compositional diversity estimates q* revealed the presence of cycles on several time scales. The most consistent periodicities are characterized by periods lasting between 201 and 240 years, which is very close to the DeVries solar cycles (208 years). A shorter-term periodicity of 176 years was detected in the NMDS scores that can be putatively linked to the subharmonics of the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, periodicities of ≈3,760 and ≈1,880 years were found in both parameters. These periodic patterns could be explained either as originating as a harmonic nonlinear response to precession forcing, or as resulting from the long-term solar activity quasicycles that were reported in previous studies of solar activity proxies.

Detection of Strong Precession Cycles from the Late Pliocene Sedimentary Records of Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

AbstractRecent studies demonstrate that aridification is sensitive to eccentricity forcing based on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau Cenozoic fluvio‐lacustrine stratigraphic records. However, it is unknown whether this is a bias associated with the fact that higher frequency periods normally have larger age model uncertainties, which tend to decrease spectral power of higher frequency orbital cycles (precession and obliquity) and enlarge lower frequency ones (eccentricity). Here we detect strong and well‐resolved (~23 and ~19 kyr) precession cycles in the magnetic susceptibility record of late Pliocene fluvio‐lacustrine sediments from the Qaidam Basin, northwestern China. We interpret the magnetic susceptibility as a proxy for the degree of chemical weathering in this region, based on the positive correlation between low‐frequency magnetic susceptibility and frequency‐dependent magnetic susceptibility. The different responses of magnetic susceptibility and a halite content proxy to orbital forcing suggest that aridification is more sensitive to eccentricity forcing than precipitation, but precipitation is more sensitive to precession forcing. This study indicates that different climatic aspects have different sensitivity to orbital forcing. Furthermore, a comparison of the magnetic susceptibility variations in the western Qaidam Basin and global ice volume proxy records suggests ice volume control of Qaidam Basin precipitation and chemical weathering at million‐year timescales.

Response of the High‐Latitude Southern Hemisphere to Precessional Forcing: Implications for Pleistocene Ocean Circulation

AbstractThe cycling of climate into and out of glacial states in response to orbital forcing illustrates the important role of feedbacks in the Earth system. In this contribution, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled ocean‐atmosphere model is used to qualitatively assess how changes in the Earth's precessional parameters may have impacted Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation and Southern Ocean dynamics. The Southern Ocean region responds to precessional forcing similar to that of the Last Glacial Maximum with a slight shift in maximum average annual wind stress, a reduction in austral winter wind stress, and an increase in austral winter sea ice. During austral summer, stratification and wind stress increase, Changes in the temperature and density of the North Atlantic lead to a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Together these changes contribute to aging of the global deep ocean, except around Antarctica where enhanced local convection decreases the age of upwelling waters. These circulation changes may have implications for a precessionally driven feedback that contributes to enhanced storage of CO2 in the deep ocean and a reduction in atmospheric CO2.