Pre-instrumental Period Research Articles

A comparison of drought information in early North American colonial documentary records and a high-resolution tree-ring-based reconstruction

Abstract. Historical documentary records contain valuable information on climate, weather, and their societal impacts during the pre-instrumental period, but it may be difficult to assess the objectivity and reliability of this information, particularly where the documentary record is incomplete or the reliability of the information it contains is uncertain. This article presents a comprehensive review of information relating to drought found in original written records concerning all early European expeditions (1510–1610 CE) into the present-day US and Canada, and compares this information with maps and time series of drought generated from the tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The two sources mostly agree in the timing and location of droughts. This correspondence suggests that much of the information in these early colonial historical records is probably objective and reliable, and that tree-ring-based drought atlases can provide information relevant to local and regional human historical events, at least in locations where their reconstruction skill is particularly high. This review of drought information from written sources and tree-ring-based reconstructions also highlights the extraordinary challenges faced by early European explorers and colonists in North America due to climatic variability in an already unfamiliar and challenging environment.

Rogation ceremonies: a key to understanding past drought variability in northeastern Spain since 1650

Abstract. In the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, few studies have reconstructed drought occurrence and variability for the pre-instrumental period using documentary evidence and natural proxies. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of rogation ceremonies – religious acts asking God for rain – from 13 cities in the northeast of Spain and investigated the annual drought variability from 1650 to 1899 CE. Three regionally different coherent areas (Mediterranean, Ebro Valley, and Mountain) were detected. Both the Barcelona and the regional Mediterranean drought indices were compared with the instrumental series of Barcelona for the overlapping period (1787–1899), where we discovered a highly significant and stable correlation with the Standardized Precipitation Index of May with a 4-month lag (r=-0.46 and r=-0.53; p<0.001, respectively). We found common periods with prolonged droughts (during the mid and late 18th century) and extreme drought years (1775, 1798, 1753, 1691, and 1817) associated with more atmospheric blocking situations. A superposed epoch analysis (SEA) was performed showing a significant decrease in drought events 1 year after the volcanic events, which might be explained by the decrease in evapotranspiration due to reduction in surface temperatures and, consequently, the higher availability of water that increases soil moisture. In addition, we discovered a common and significant drought response in the three regional drought indices 2 years after the Tambora volcanic eruption. Our study suggests that documented information on rogation ceremonies contains important independent evidence to reconstruct extreme drought events in areas and periods for which instrumental information and other proxies are scarce. However, drought index for the mountainous areas (denoted Mountain later in the text) presents various limitations and its interpretation must be treated with caution.

Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period

Abstract. The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of a series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Z index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on the calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterized by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥ 50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarized; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.

Bounding relationships between parameters of earthquakes and seismogenic clastic dikes (based on worldwide data)

This paper presents the first boundary equations describing the relationship between earthquake parameters (magnitude M S and macroseismic intensity I P at the observation point on the MSK-64 scale) and clastic dikes (having maximal thickness m cd , visible height h cd , and the index of manifestation intensity of dikes in the cross section I cd ). As was expected, the maximal size of dikes grows with an increase in the earthquake magnitude and macroseismic intensity. Analysis of the dependences showed that it is better to use all three parameters for estimation of the minimal threshold M S or I P from clastic dikes, and, in the absence of data on seismogenic rupture, the maximal calculated value should be used. Some limitations in application and the advantages of the equations obtained are discussed with respect to characterizing earthquakes of the pre-instrumental period.

Reconstruction of the winter weather in east Friesland at the turn of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries (1594–1612)

Historical climatology research dealing with the pre-instrumental period has rarely been able to include the weather on a daily scale. Other than for specific, extremely well-documented events, reconstructions only concern longer-term weather patterns (monthly, seasonal or annual). Yet at the end of the sixteenth century, David Fabricius recorded the weather, day after day, in his notebooks. In the middle of the Little Ice Age, he was a pastor in east Friesland (currently in the northwest of Germany) and a meteorology enthusiast. This documentary source is one of the richest available for reconstructing the weather at a time before measuring instruments gave systematic readings. Fabricius observed the weather and noted in his diary some terms that were more or less objective (such as cloudy, rain, snow) whilst others were more subjective (such as hot, warm, beautiful weather). We are therefore obliged, in this paper, to propose quantitative climatic reconstructions produced by “making do” with these notes about the weather as Fabricius perceived it. Our paper is focused on the reconstruction of winter weather (December, January and February) during the period covered by Fabricius’ notebook (1594–1612). Thanks to this notebook, it is possible to discern reasonably accurately the number of days of frost and snow and also to suggest a summary of winter weather types according to the number of days of precipitation. We compare Fabricius’ observations with other climatic reconstructions in Europe and also look at whether blockage phases, able to generate advection of cold air, happened frequently, this being one of the possibilities that could explain the cooling in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

Klimatska obilježja otoka Palagruže, Hrvatska

The paper presents a brief review of contemporary research on climatic features of Palagruža Island, both in the pre-instrumental and instrumental period. The analysis was made upon climatic data provided by the meteorological station of Palagruža. For comparison purposes, data from the station in Split-Marjan was used, covering the standard climate period 1961-1990. The results show, among other things, that there is a decreasing trend of annual mean maximum air temperatures for 0.37 °C/30 years, average air temperature for 0.05 °C/30 years, and the mean minimum air temperature for 0.04 °C/30 years. There is a decreasing trend of annual mean of precipitation amount for 62 mm/30 years. Spearman rank statistic shows that neither of the trends noted above is statistically significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed t-test)

Phenological records in Guanzhong Area in central China between 600 and 902 AD as proxy for winter half-year temperature reconstruction

Phenological data obtained from historical documents constitute highly important ecological evidence for the pre-instrumental period, and can be used in analyzing climatic change in history. In this study, 87 phenological records about seasonality of non-biological events (e.g., first frost date), agriculture and ornamental plants (e.g., first flowering date) over 77 years were extracted from historical documents from the Sui and Tang dynasties in China to reconstruct the winter half-year (from October to next April) temperatures in the Guanzhong Area (located in central China) from 600 to 902 AD. Transfer functions between temperature and phenophases with significant correlations were established by using modern observation data. Temperatures from the study period were reconstructed by applying the transfer functions to historical phenological data. The reconstruction indicates that the winter half-year temperatures during 600–902 AD were 0.23°C higher than the reference period (1961–1990). The temperature changed with two distinct stages. During the 600s–800s, temperatures were approximately 0.38°C higher than at present but then temperatures decreased in the subsequent period (800–902 AD). These results are similar to ones from previous studies on the mean temperature and the divisions between warm and cold periods during the study period, though differences were found in the degree of warmness/coldness. This reconstruction provides a valuable contribution to a better understanding of climatic variability during the Sui and Tang dynasties in China.

Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course, extent, impacts

This paper addresses the course, extent, and impacts of a windstorm that occurred on 20–21 December 1740, in the Czech Lands. The analysis is based on documentary data included in chronicles, “books of memory”, memoirs, damage reports, urbaria, and cadastral records, as well as secondary sources. The windstorm started with a thunderstorm in the afternoon of 20 December, continued during the night, and was followed by a flood. It also appeared in documentary data from Bavaria, Thuringia, Saxony, Silesia, Slovakia, and Hungary. The event may be related to a cyclone north-west of the Czech territory moving to the east with an intense western flow over central Europe. The storm did great material damage to houses, farm buildings, churches, and forests and is recorded in various documentary sources for 85 places in the Czech Lands. The windstorm had a significant influence on the development of local plantation forestry (discussed in greater detail). Judging by territorial extent and damage done, this windstorm, compared to other similar events, has been classified as “the windstorm of the eighteenth century” in the Czech Lands. This contribution demonstrates the potential of documentary evidence for the elucidation of heavy windstorms in the pre-instrumental period in Europe.

Earthquakes in northeastern Russia during the preinstrumental period of observations

The parameters of earthquakes in northeast of Russia that occurred in 1735–1910 and were published in New Catalog of Earthquakes in USSR from Ancient Times trough 1975 have been specified based on the initial data presented (1977). Special attention has been paid to the conformity between the initial data, the available solution methods, and the resulting parameter values. The macroseismic data from the preinstrumental and instrumental observational periods have been compared.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

Abstract. The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer River discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammer for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic timescales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic-scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency, as detected in the instrumental discharge record, are associated with a wave train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia, with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated with increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammer sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time series from Lake Ammer sediments covering the last 5500 years contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on interannual to millennial timescales.

Historical changes in frequency of extreme floods in Prague

Abstract. This study presents a flood frequency analysis for the Vltava River catchment using a major profile in Prague. The estimates of peak discharges for the pre-instrumental period of 1118–1824 based on documentary sources were carried out using different approaches. 187 flood peak discharges derived for the pre-instrumental period augmented 150 records for the instrumental period of 1825–2013. Flood selection was based on Q10 criteria. Six flood-rich periods in total were identified for 1118–2013. Results of this study correspond with similar studies published earlier for some central European catchments, except for the period around 1750. Presented results indicate that the territory of the present Czech Republic might have experienced extreme floods in the past, comparable – with regard to peak discharge (higher than or equal to Q10) and frequency – to the flood events recorded recently.

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400–1800

Abstract. This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400–1800). The survey shows that two sub-periods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590–1670 and the early 18th century. The result related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, suggests that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so-called Little Ice Age rather than large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

Persistent decadal-scale rainfall variability in the tropical South Pacific Convergence Zone through the past six centuries

Abstract. Modern Pacific decadal variability (PDV) has global impacts; hence records of PDV from the pre-instrumental period are needed to better inform models that are used to project future climate variability. We focus here on reconstructing rainfall in the western tropical Pacific (Solomon Islands; ~ 9.5° S, ~160° E), a region directly influenced by PDV, using cave deposits (stalagmite). A relationship is developed between δ18O variations in the stalagmite and local rainfall amount to produce a 600 yr record of rainfall variability from the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). We present evidence for large (~1.5 m), abrupt, and periodic changes in total annual rainfall amount on decadal to multidecadal timescales since 1423 ± 5 CE (Common Era) in the Solomon Islands. The timing of the decadal changes in rainfall inferred from the 20th century portion of the stalagmite δ18O record coincides with previously identified decadal shifts in PDV-related Pacific ocean–atmosphere behavior (Clement et al., 2011; Deser et al., 2004). The Solomons record of PDV is not associated with variations in external forcings, but rather results from internal climate variability. The 600 yr Solomon Islands stalagmite δ18O record indicates that decadal oscillations in rainfall are a persistent characteristic of SPCZ-related climate variability.

Documentary reconstruction of monsoon rainfall variability over western India, 1781–1860

Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781–1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780–1785, 1799–1806, 1830–1838 and 1845–1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788–1794, 1813–1828 and 1839–1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817–1846 for western India.

A risk society? Environmental hazards, risk and resilience in the later Middle Ages in Europe

Modern society is said to have restructured in reaction to contemporary hazards with the aim of improving its management of risk. This implies that pre-industrial societies were somehow fundamentally different. In this paper, we challenge that hypothesis by examining the ways in which risks associated with environmental hazards were managed and mitigated during the Middle Ages (defined here as the period from 1000 to 1550 AD). Beginning with a review of the many case studies of rapid onset disasters across Europe, we draw upon both historical and archaeological evidence and architectural assessments of structural damage for what is a pre-instrumental period. Building upon this, the second part of the paper explores individual outlooks on risk, emphasising the diversity of popular belief and the central importance of Christianity in framing attitudes. Despite their religious perspectives, we find that medieval communities were not helpless in the face of serious environmental hazards. We argue instead that the response of society to these threats was frequently complex, considered and, at times, surprisingly modern.

500 years of regional forest growth variability and links to climatic extreme events in Europe

Climatic extreme events strongly affect forest growth and thus significantly influence the inter-annual terrestrial carbon balance. As we are facing an increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes, extensive empirical archives are required to assess continental scale impacts of temperature and precipitation anomalies. Here we divide a tree-ring network of approximately 1000 sites into fifteen groups of similar high-frequency growth variability to reconstruct regional positive and negative extreme events in different parts of Europe between 1500 and 2008. Synchronized growth maxima or minima within and among regions indicate eighteen years in the pre-instrumental period and two events in the 20th century (1948, 1976) with extensive radial growth fluctuations. Comparisons with instrumental data showed that the European tree-ring network mirrors the spatial extent of temperature and precipitation extremes, but the interpretation of pre-instrumental events is challenged by lagged responses to off-growing season climate extremes. We were able to attribute growth minima in subsequent years to unfavourable August–October conditions and to mild climate during winter months associated with respiratory carbon losses. Our results emphasize the importance of carry-over effects and species-specific growth characteristics for forest productivity. Furthermore, they promote the use of regional tree-ring chronologies in research related to climate variability and terrestrial carbon sink dynamics.

How extreme where the Floods of River Rhine in the pre-instrumental Period? A novel interdisciplinary approach to reconstruct and quantify pre-instrumental Floods

How extreme where the Floods of River Rhine in the pre-instrumental Period? A novel interdisciplinary approach to reconstruct and quantify pre-instrumental Floods

Assessing extreme droughts in Spain during 1750–1850 from rogation ceremonies

Abstract. Among the different meteorological hazards, droughts are those with the highest socio-economical impact on the Iberian Peninsula. Drought events have been largely studied in the instrumental period, but very little is known about the characteristics of droughts in the preinstrumental period. In this work, several series of rogation ceremonies are used to identify severe droughts within the period 1750–1850. The overlapping of the rogation series with some instrumental series served to identify some climatic characteristics of rogation ceremonies: (a) during spring, rainfall deficits needed to celebrate rogation ceremonies are smaller than in any other season; (b) the hydrological deficit in a particular region increases with the number of locations celebrating rogations simultaneously. On the other hand, it was found that between 1750–1754 and 1779–1783 are probably the driest periods of the 101 analyzed years. Both show an important number of rogations all over Iberia and during all the seasons. The most extended drought of this period occurred during the spring of 1817, affecting 15 of the 16 locations studied. This drought was influenced by the Tambora eruption (1815). The study of the climate footprint of this eruption and its comparison with similar situations in the series suggest that the spring drought of 1824 may be associated with the eruptions of the Galunggung and Usu volcanoes (1822). Further studies are required to confirm this fact and understand the atmospheric mechanisms involved.

Regional-scale winter-spring temperature variability and chilling damage dynamics over the past two centuries in southeastern China

Winter-spring cold extreme is a kind of serious natural disaster for southeastern China. As such events are recorded in discrete documents, long and continuous records are required to understand their characteristics and driving forces. Here we report a regional-scale winter-spring (January–April) temperature reconstruction based on a tree-ring network of pine trees (Pinus massoniana) from five sampling sites over a large spatial scale (25–29°N, 111–115°E) in southeastern China. The regional tree-ring chronology explains 48.6% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1957–2008. The reconstruction shows six relatively warm intervals (i.e., ~1849–1855, ~1871–1888, ~1909–1920, ~1939–1944, ~1958–1968, 1997–2007) and five cold intervals (i.e., ~1860–1870, ~1893–1908, ~1925–1934, ~1945–1957, ~1982–1996) during 1849–2008. The last decade and the 1930s were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively, in the past 160 years. The composite analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height fields reveals that distinctly different circulation patterns occurred in the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The winter-spring cold extremes in southeastern China are associated with Ural-High ridge pattern for the instrumental period (1957–2008), whereas the cold extremes in pre-instrumental period (1871–1956) are associated with North circulation pattern.

Natural encounters: climate, weather and the Italian Renaissance

This paper examines a key issue in the history of the climate in the pre-instrumental period, that is, how to use narrative sources which make frequent references to weather events, but which need contextualised interpretation. The paper follows an argument that climatological techniques for deriving temperature indices from chronicles, though they have become increasingly elaborate and refined, nevertheless leave out much that is of interest to the social historian. This paper explores the area of the what-is-left-behind when chronicle narratives are reduced to numerical indices. Investigating a broad range of Latin and Italian chronicles from fourteenth and fifteenth-century Italy, the paper draws three main conclusions: that sensitivity to weather events not only varied greatly among writers (as one might expect) but so too did their use of severe weather to serve the purposes of narrative (through sequencing, metaphor and analogy); that sensitivity to meteorological anomaly changed during the period, especially in the fifteenth century with the spread of prognosticating verses; and that the broadening of chroniclers' interests in weather, both ordinary and extraordinary, and in its effects on everyday, material life may allow a connection to and re-evaluation of the Burckhartian idea of the Renaissance ‘discovery of the world’.