Prais Winsten Research Articles

Temporal Trend and Risk Factors for Respiratory Distress Syndrome-Associated Neonatal Mortality in Preterm Infants: A Population-Based Study in a Middle-Income Country.

This article aimed to report a temporal series of respiratory distress syndrome (RDS)-associated neonatal mortality rates in preterm live births in São Paulo state, Brazil, and to identify social, maternal, and neonatal characteristics associated with these deaths. This is a population-based study of all live births with gestational age (GA) between 22 and 36 weeks, birth weight ≥400 g, without congenital anomalies from mothers living in São Paulo state during 2004 to 2015. RDS-associated neonatal mortality was defined as death up to 27 days after birth with ICD-10 codes P22.0 or P28.0. RDS-associated neonatal mortality rate (annual percent change [APC] with 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) was analyzed by Prais-Winsten. Kaplan-Meier estimator identified the time after birth that the RDS-associated neonatal death occurred. Poisson's regression model compared social maternal and neonatal characteristics between preterm live births that survived the neonatal period and those with RDS-associated neonatal deaths, with results expressed in incidence rate ratio and 95% CI. A total of 645,276 preterm live births were included in the study, of which 612,110 survived and 11,078 had RDS-associated neonatal deaths. RDS-associated neonatal mortality rate was 17.17 per thousand preterm live births, with a decreasing annual trend (APC: -6.50%; 95% CI: -9.11 to -3.82%). The median time of these deaths was 48 hours after birth. The following risk factors for RDS-associated neonatal death were identified: maternal schooling ≤7 years (1.18; 1.09-1.29), zero to three prenatal care visits (1.25; 1.18-1.32), multiple pregnancy (1.24; 1.16-1.33), vaginal delivery (1.29; 1.22-1.36), GA 22 to 27 weeks (106.35; 98.36-114.98), GA 28 to 31 weeks (20.12; 18.62-21.73), male sex (1.16; 1.10-1.22), and 5-minute Apgar scores of 0 to 3 (6.74; 6.08-7.47) and 4 to 6 (3.97; 3.72-4.23). During the study period, RDS-associated neonatal mortality rates showed significant reduction. The relationship between RDS-associated neonatal deaths and social, maternal, and neonatal factors suggests the need for perinatal strategies to reduce prematurity and to improve the initial management of preterm infants. · RDS is associated with preterm live births.. · Impact of RDS-associated neonatal mortality in middle-income countries is scarce.. · Qualified perinatal care can reduce RDS-associated neonatal mortality..

Financial sector development, anti-money laundering regulations and economic growth

PurposeThis study examines the influence of anti-money laundering (AML) regulations on the financial development-economic growth nexus around the world.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses data from 165 countries spanning continents, income levels, and regulatory regimes from 2012 to 2018. The Prais–Winsten (1954) and Hansen (2000) panel threshold estimation approaches were used to assess the study's hypothesized relationships.FindingsFinancial development, according to the research, generally stimulates economic growth. However, the authors find evidence of AML regulations' threshold effect on the finance-growth connection, with the impact of finance on growth being positive below the threshold value. Above the threshold, however, the authors observe a negative influence. Further, the authors find that AML regulations have a considerable detrimental impact on the finance-growth nexus over the threshold for developed countries. However, the authors find a positive but insignificant effect of finance on growth below the AML regulations threshold for African countries, while finance positively impacts growth above the AML regulations threshold.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study imply that countries must make conscious efforts to combat the incidence of money laundering by establishing policies to improve financial transparency and standards, promoting public sector transparency and accountability, reducing legal and political risk, and combating bribery and corruption.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature as it is the first attempt to examine the moderating role of AML regulations in the finance-growth nexus. Also, the study examines the threshold effect of how AML regulations impact the finance-growth nexus.

Societal factors and psychological distress indicators associated with the recent rise in youth suicide in Taiwan: A time trend analysis.

We investigated recent trends in youth suicide and their associations with societal and psychological factors in Taiwan. Suicide data (1971-2019) for 10-24 year olds were extracted from Taiwan's national cause-of-death data files. We investigated changes in trends in youth suicide rates, societal factors (gross domestic product per capita, Gini index, overall and youth unemployment rates, divorce rates in people aged 40-59 years [i.e. the age of most 15-24 year olds' parents] and Internet use rates) and psychological distress indicators (youth self-harm rates and the prevalence of worry-related insomnia, and suicide ideation, plan and attempt) using joinpoint regression and graphic examinations. The associations of these factors with youth suicide rates were examined using Prais-Winsten regression. Suicide rates in Taiwan's 10-24 year olds changed from a downward trend (2005-2014) to an upward trend in 2014 and increased 11.5% (95% confidence interval = [5.2%, 18.1%]) annually between 2014 and 2019. There was also an upturn in divorce rates among females aged 40-59 years in 2014 and self-harm rates among 15- to 24-year-old youth in 2013. The prevalence of self-reported insomnia and suicide ideation, plan and attempt in youth started to increase from 2013 to 2016. In the regression analysis, Internet use, female divorce rates and youth self-harm rates were positively associated with youth suicide rates. Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal behaviors began to increase in Taiwanese youth in the 2010s. These increases may be associated with concurrent rises in parental divorce rates, Internet use and poor sleep. Further research is needed to examine the mechanisms underlying recent increases in youth suicide risk.

Trends in cervical cancer mortality rate in women aged 20 years and older in Brazil from 2005 to 2019

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of the age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for cervical cancer in Brazil between 2005 and 2019 and investigate its association with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), an indicator of development status strongly correlated with health outcomes. We conducted an ecological time-series study using data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Trend analyses were performed using Prais–Winsten regression. The association between the SDI and ASMR was evaluated using simple linear regression. Between 2005 and 2019, 105,472 deaths from cervical cancer were recorded. The ASMR was 10.18 deaths/100,000 women. The North region presented the highest magnitude (20.23 deaths/100,000 women) and the Southeast region the lowest (7.83 deaths/100,000 women). We observed a decreasing trend of the ASMR for cervical cancer in the country. The Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions showed a decreasing trend; South stationary trend and the North region showed an increasing trend. Most of the states showed a stationary or decreasing trend. It was found that the SDI was inversely associated with the ASMR and Annual Percent Change (APC). In conclusion, we observed a decreasing trend of ASMR for cervical cancer and inverse association with SDI in Brazil.

Determinants of readability of financial statements in Kenya

The current study set out to investigate the determinants of readability of financial statements of Kenyan-listed firms. A deductive approach was employed and data was collected from a sample of 59 companies listed in the NSE in a census study over 5 years between years 2014 to 2018. Prais Winsten regression model was employed and the findings indicated that file size had a significant and negative effect on the readability of financial statements in Kenyan listed firms. The implication is that large-size financial statements are more difficult to read than smaller ones. This finding is consistent with reality since it will take less time to read small-sized financial statements than larger ones. Preparers of financial statements who are the firm managers should thus be careful about this finding. Regulatory authorities should develop policies that encourage the production of smaller volume financial statements to enhance their readability by the end-users. The current study is the first in East Africa since there has been no study on the readability of financial statements that have employed readability indices and that has regressed determinants against the readability of financial statements in this region.

Tuberculosis among People Living on the Street and Using Alcohol, Tobacco, and Illegal Drugs: Analysis of Territories in Extreme Vulnerability and Trends in Southern Brazil.

(1) Background: Tuberculosis presents an epidemiological trend toward inequality, especially among people in social exclusion and situations of vulnerability. This study aimed to analyze territories with a concentration of people diagnosed with tuberculosis in a street situation and who partake in chronic use of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs. We also analyzed trends in this health condition in southern Brazil. (2) Methods: Ecological study, developed in the 399 municipalities of Paraná, southern Brazil, with all tuberculosis cases in the homeless population registered in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases between 2014 and 2018. For data analysis, we used descriptive statistics, the Prais–Winsten autoregression method for the time series, and the Getis-Ord Gi technique* for spatial analysis. (3) Results: in total, 560 cases were reported. We found a predominance of alcohol, smoking, and illicit drug users, with an increasing trend in the state and clusters of spatial risk in the East health macro-region. (4) Conclusions: We observed territories with critical levels of highly vulnerable people who use psychoactive substances and are in a street situation. The results highlight the importance of incorporating public policies of social protection for these individuals and resolutive health services that receive these cases and assist in eradicating TB.

Vulnerable employment in developing economies: The case of sub‐Saharan African countries

AbstractThis study investigates the development of vulnerable employment in 43 sub‐Saharan African countries by using yearly data for 1996–2018 period. The paper first outlines the main factors and discusses the issue from the perspective of developing countries, and then constructs a panel data elasticity model. The model expands the economic growth framework further and assesses the effects of rurality, sectoral composition, demography, and the quality of economic and political institutions. Prais–Winsten robust estimation results for the expanded model show nonindustrial employment to be the main source of vulnerable employment. Additionally, the increase in urban population share is found to have a positive impact, while nonemployed population is negatively associated. The results also show that upper‐middle income countries differ from low and lower‐middle income groups with regard to the significance of economic and political institutions. These findings clarify the prominence of the Sustainable Development Goals policy agenda and gradual reform strategies beginning with economic quality toward improvement of political institutions. At the end, we highlight several policy implications.

The effect of ENSO on common bean production in Colombia: a time series approach

The common bean is an important staple food in Colombia with diverse nutritional content and environmental benefits. The most important climatic risk confronted by common bean production in Colombia is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since its two extreme phases —El Niño and La Niña— increase the intensity and variety of abiotic and biotic stresses in the region. Using information from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) for the period 1991–2018, we test whether pre-2030 ENSO has had a negative impact on common bean production in Colombia using a Prais–Winsten regression model. We find that common beans’ yields have been negatively affected by El Niño, but not by La Niña. Moreover, short-run ENSO-induced deviations in the growth rate of precipitation with respect to its long-run value reduce yields and increase farmers’ income from common bean production. These results have two important implications. From a modelling standpoint, we find that precipitation has a non-linear relationship with yields and incomes, implying that second-order effects should be incorporated in any analysis of the effects of climatic variables on agricultural production. From a policy perspective, our results suggest a need for countercyclical polices to counteract price spikes of common beans in the Colombian market since, when they occur, they tend to over-compensate the reduction in yields, which reduce common bean consumers’ purchasing power and food security.

French guidelines for restrictive episiotomy during instrumental delivery were not followed by an increase in obstetric anal sphincter injury

The objective was to assess the influence of the French guidelines in favor of a restrictive use of episiotomy on both episiotomy and obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) rates during instrumental delivery. It was aulticenter study involving 193 maternities between 2000 and 2016. We included women with a singleton pregnancy, with cephalic presentation at 34 weeks of gestation or more who underwent an instrumental delivery. The study period was divided into three phases: 2000–2005 (reference) 2006–2011, and 2012–2016. We calculated the adjusted relative risk (aRR) of episiotomy and OASI and investigated for changes in episiotomy and OASI rates over time by using Prais–Winsten regression. We considered 96,035 deliveries. The episiotomy’s risk was lower in 2006–2011 (69.4%) and 2012–2016 (59.1%) compared to 2000–2005 (81.2%), respectively: aRR 0.93 [0.92–0.95] and 0.89 [0.87–0.90]. The OASI’s risk was higher in 2006–2011 (2.5%) and 2012–2016 (3.1%) compared to 2000–2005, respectively: aRR 1.30 [1.10–1.53]) and 1.57 [1.33–1.85]. However, Prais–Winsten regression showed no difference in the OASI rate during the study period. We observed a massive decrease in episiotomy use and a moderate increase in crude OASI’s rate but multivariate analysis failed to report an association between these outcomes.

Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration

The recent global migration pattern indicates the importance of the movement of people from developing countries to developed countries in search of better economic opportunities. The G20 report of ‘International Migration and Displacement Trends’ mentions India at the top of the list of highly educated emigrants in G20 countries. The current study addresses the endogeneity problem in the migration determinants and attempts to highlight the major regional and economic determinants of migration flow from India to major OECD countries using the Gravity model of migration. We apply the Prais–Winsten regression method to address the cross-sectional correlation, while we apply instrumental variable regression and Hausman–Taylor regression estimation techniques to deal with the endogeneity issue. The findings reveal that the population of India, distance, common official language and per capita income differential are the major determinants of migration from India. In the backdrop of our findings, in terms of per capita income differential, there is a need for an upward revision in the pay scale of the white-collar workers in the organised sector. JEL Codes: C23, F22, J11, J60

Internet traffic and firm performance in big-ticket sectors: there are two sides of the coin

The importance of well-established and customer-friendly firms’ websites has increased in the context of the digitalization of the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a new driver for the development of Internet communications between manufacturers and consumers. This article explores the relationship between the Internet traffic of companies’ websites of and their sales volumes and profitability. We apply panel data regression analysis and model of Prais–Winsten regression with panel standard error adjustment, which provides conservative and reliable estimates. In the sample of 268 observations drawn from 67 Russian firms operating in the big-ticket industries of car manufacturing and real estate development during the period of 2017- 2022 characterized by a major exogenous shock, we demonstrate that internet traffic exerts a positive effect on firm sales. At the same time, this positive effect on sales is accompanied by a negative effect of internet traffic on firm profitability. The negative effect on profitability is particularly pronounced for younger firms that are likely to face severe resource constraints and can thus be said to sacrifice profitability to ensure sales. In such situation, application of cost-effective strategies may be critical for younger firms. Younger firms should pay particular attention to the contents of their websites to ensure that they provide enough adequate information that will help win the trust of new customers.

Foreign direct investment, anti‐money laundering regulations and economic growth

AbstractThis study seeks to establish the impact of anti‐money laundering (AML) regulations on economic growth as well as how AML regulations influence the foreign direct investment (FDI)–growth nexus for 165 economies across the globe. We employ Prais–Winsten and the Hansen (2000) panel threshold regression estimation techniques to test the hypotheses of the study. We use data ranging from 2012 to 2018. We provide evidence that AML regulations generally stimulate growth; however, AML regulations only stimulate growth below the threshold value. Again, although we report that FDI stimulates growth, the growth‐enhancing impact of FDI is more pronounced at higher levels of AML regulations.

A Gini estimator for regression with autocorrelated errors

Abstract The widely used Prais–Winsten technique for estimating parameters of linear regression model with serial correlation is sensitive to outliers. In this paper, an alternative method based on Gini mean difference (GMD) is proposed. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to show that the Gini estimator is more robust than the general least squares one when the data are contaminated by outliers.

Inferring Hydrological Information at the Regional Scale by Means of δ18O–δ2H Relationships: Insights from the Northern Italian Apennines

We compared five regression approaches, namely, ordinary least squares, major axis, reduced major axis, robust, and Prais–Winsten to estimate δ18O–δ2H relationships in four water types (precipitation, surface water, groundwater collected in wells from lowlands, and groundwater from low-yield springs) from the northern Italian Apennines. Differences in terms of slopes and intercepts of the different regressions were quantified and investigated by means of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistical analyses. We found that magnitudes of such differences were significant for water types surface water and groundwater (both in the case of wells and springs), and were related to robustness of regressions (i.e., standard deviations of the estimates and sensitiveness to outliers). With reference to surface water, we found the young water fraction was significant in inducing changes of slopes and intercepts, leading us to suppose a certain role of kinetic fractionation processes as well (i.e., modification of former water isotopes from both snow cover in the upper part of the catchments and precipitation linked to pre-infiltrative evaporation and evapotranspiration processes). As final remarks, due to the usefulness of δ18O–δ2H relationships in hydrological and hydrogeological studies, we provide some recommendations that should be followed when assessing the abovementioned water types from the northern Italian Apennines.

Impact of childhood and maternal vaccination against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis in Colombia.

Background: In Latin America, there are few studies of the impact of vaccination against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis. We estimate the impact of infant and maternal vaccination on the incidence of these diseases in Colombia.Design and methods: an interrupted time series study analyzing the incidence before and after of vaccination with DwPT (1975-2018) and with Tdap in pregnant women (2008-2018). A segmented regression model with negative binomial distribution estimated the change in level and trend of the predicted incidence ratio after vaccination in relation to the incidence if vaccination had not been started (IRR), using a Prais Winsten regression.Results: The pertussis IRR decreased immediately after the start of childhood vaccination (0.91, p=0.51), but this was only significant (1.01, p<0.001) along with the trend per year, after the start of maternal vaccination (0.98, p<0.001). In the absence of vaccination, the incidence would not have been reduced. Neonatal tetanus had the highest rate of change with significant reduction - 1.69 - CI 95%: -2.91, -0.48). The trend after vaccination was the highest with an annual reduction of 19% (0.81, p=0.001). The change in incidence of diphtheria was significant, although slow (- 0.02 - CI 95%: -0.04, -0.004). The sustained effect in the post-vaccination period was smaller (0.95, p=0.79).Conclusion: Childhood and maternal vaccination markedly reduced the incidence of pertussis and neonatal tetanus. It is necessary to maintain optimal vaccination coverage and surveillance, within an integrated elimination plan, which prevents the resurgence of these diseases. Significance for public health Immunization and control of diseases in the process of elimination, such as neonatal tetanus and with a recent resurgence such as diphtheria and pertussis constitute a challenge for Colombia, the region, and the world. The impact of infant and maternal vaccination on reducing the incidence of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis in Colombia, has been reported in this study. Childhood and maternal vaccination markedly reduced the incidence of neonatal pertussis and tetanus. The change in incidence of diphtheria was significant before and after immunization, although slow. Public health efforts should focus on improving and sustaining maternal and child vaccination against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis. Development of an integrated elimination plan is recommended for the three diseases based on the experience of neonatal tetanus.

The effect of gender equality on the carbon intensity of well-being: panel data analysis for the MENA economies 1995-2018

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the ecological efficiency through assessing the relation of the “carbon intensity of well-being” (CIWB) to gender equality, gross domestic product (GDP)/capita, the urban intensity of the population, the age structure of the population, foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP and manufacturing as a percentage of GDP.Design/methodology/approachCIWB equation is estimated for a panel of 18 MENA economies and Turkey over the period 1995–2018 using the two-way fixed effects Prais–Winsten regression with panel-corrected standard errors.FindingsThe elasticity coefficients obtained from the estimated models indicated mixed effects on CIWB. While the increase of female educational attainment, accompanied with an increase in the female labor force participation rate, reduce CIWB, the younger female population and the younger population, in general, increase CIWB. Furthermore, while increasing FDI inflows reduces CIWB, increasing the manufacturing share of GDP increases CIWB.Originality/valueThe pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals worldwide has moved the relevant literature on climate change mitigation and adaptation measures to a new level, where using the CIWB method is increasingly used to reflect carbon dioxide emissions per capita unit of expected lifespan. The present paper’s contribution to the literature is two-fold: one is computing and estimating the CIWB to examine ecological efficiency for the middle east and north africa (MENA) economies and Turkey over the period of study; and two is integrating and validating the beneficial impacts of integrating the gender equality dimension in the CIWB–climate change literature.

Deciphering Multifactorial Correlations of COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the Brazilian Amazon Basin.

Amazonas suffered greatly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mortality and fatality rates soared and scarcity of oxygen and healthcare supplies led the health system and funerary services to collapse. Thus, we analyzed the trends of incidence, mortality, and lethality indicators of COVID-19 and the dynamics of their main determinants in the state of Amazonas from March 2020 to June 2021. This is a time-series ecological study. We calculated the lethality, mortality, and incidence rates with official and public data from the Health Department. We used the Prais–Winsten regression and trends were classified as stationary, increasing, or decreasing. The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also estimated. Differences were considered significant when p < 0.05. We extracted 396,772 cases of and 13,420 deaths from COVID-19; 66% of deaths were in people aged over 60; 57% were men. Cardiovascular diseases were the most common comorbidity (28.84%), followed by diabetes (25.35%). Rural areas reported 53% of the total cases and 31% of the total deaths. The impact of COVID-19 in the Amazon is not limited to the direct effects of the pandemic itself; it may present characteristics of a syndemic due to the interaction of COVID-19 with pre-existing illnesses, endemic diseases, and social vulnerabilities.

Does Shanghai International Financial Center Promote RMB Internationalization?

The construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center was completed in 2020, which signaled the new age of financial reforms in China. The Shanghai International Financial Center plays a significant part in the progress of RMB internationalization. However, empirical proof of the impacts remains few. So, we conducted an empirical analysis to determine if the Shanghai International Financial Center promoted RMB internationalization effectively. To obtain robust results, we conducted regressions with Newey–West standard errors, Cochrane–Orcutt estimation, and Prais–Winsten estimation. We observed that the Shanghai International Financial Center has significant positive effects on RMB internationalization by expanding financial scale and activity. The findings give adequate evidence to support the theories advanced in prior research, and the methodology and indicators used in the study may serve as a guide for future research. We made several policy discussions of the findings regarding the continued expansion of the offshore market and capital liberalization within Shanghai.

Temporal trend of accidents due to percutaneous exposure in a public hospital in Brazil, 2007-2019.

to analyze the temporal trend of accidents due to percutaneous exposure in a public hospital in Brazil, between 2007 and 2019, according to sociodemographic and professional characteristics. analysis of time series of accidents due to percutaneous exposure that occurred in health workers. Sociodemographic and professional variables, accident profile, post-accident behavior and accident incidence rates were evaluated. The Prais Winsten regression was used for trend analysis and calculation of the annual percentage change, with a significance level of 5%. 761 occupational accidents were recorded. There was a downward trend in the rate of percutaneous injuries among female workers (-0.012%; p=0.009), who had secondary education (-0.011%; p=0.035) and among all health professional categories (-0.010%; p =0.019). There was an increasing trend (0.018%; p= 0.050) among workers with ≥ 61 months of professional experience. the analysis showed a decreasing incidence of percutaneous accidents, which can be explained by multiple factors.

Mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma associated with hepatitis B and C viruses in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

This study aimed to describe and analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of deaths due to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with hepatitis B (HBV) and C viruses (HCV) in the state of São Paulo. This is an ecological study of HCC deaths associated with HBV and HCV in the state of São Paulo, from 2009 to 2017, with data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). The temporal trend was analyzed by linear regression with Prais-Winsten estimation. Deaths were described according to sociodemographic characteristics by means of absolute and relative frequencies and were spatially distributed according to the regional health department. It is found that 26.3% of deaths due to HCC were associated with HBV or HCV. A higher proportion of deaths due to HCC associated with HCV was observed (22.2%) when compared to HBV (3.9%). The mortality rate due to HCC associated with HBV showed a downward trend, and the mortality rate due to HCC associated with HCV showed a steady trend. Deathsof males, white individuals, those who aged from 50 to 59 years, and those who had 8-11 years of schooling predominated. Spatial analysis revealed a heterogeneous distribution of deaths in the state of São Paulo. The downward trend in mortality rates due to HCC associated with HBV shows an important advance in the disease control. However, the mortality rate due to HCC associated with HCV has remained stable throughout the study period. The spatial distribution of deaths may contribute to raise hypotheses for deeper knowledge of these diseases in the regions.