Prairie Pothole Research Articles

Reassessing perennial cover as a driver of duck nest survival in the Prairie Pothole Region

AbstractConservation plans designed to sustain North American duck populations prominently feature a key hypothesis stating that the amount of the landscape in perennial cover surrounding upland duck nests positively influences nest survival rates. Recent conflicting research testing this hypothesis creates ambiguity regarding which management actions to pursue and where to prioritize conservation delivery. We compared existing models and new formulations of existing models explaining spatiotemporal variation in nest survival using independent data documenting the fate of >20,000 duck nests within the Drift Prairie, Missouri Coteau, and Prairie Coteau physiographic regions of the United States Prairie Pothole Region during 2002–2018. Our results suggest an inconsistent relationship between perennial cover and survival of upland duck nests, which depended upon physiographic region and current and time‐lagged landscape and environmental conditions. The magnitude and direction of how perennial cover correlated with daily nest survival depended on its dominance as a landcover type. A positive relationship existed when perennial cover was a minor component of landcover in all physiographic regions (<30% of a 10.4‐km2 area) and, in the Drift Prairie and Prairie Coteau, when perennial cover was the dominant landcover type (>60%). A constant or negative relationship was predicted at locations of about 30–60% perennial cover. Additionally, environmental conditions (i.e., density of wetlands and estimated gross primary productivity in the previous year) moderated or enhanced the effect of perennial cover on nest survival, depending on physiographic region. Our finding of inconsistency in the relationship between perennial cover and nest survival contradicts the conservation premise that nest survival universally increases linearly when uplands are converted to perennial cover. Promoting policies and management actions designed to increase perennial cover can be expected to be situationally but not consistently associated with higher survival of upland duck nests.

Advances in modelling large river basins in cold regions with Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire—Surface and Hydrology (MESH), the Canadian hydrological land surface scheme

AbstractCold regions provide water resources for half the global population yet face rapid change. Their hydrology is dominated by snow, ice and frozen soils, and climate warming is having profound effects. Hydrological models have a key role in predicting changing water resources but are challenged in cold regions. Ground‐based data to quantify meteorological forcing and constrain model parameterization are limited, while hydrological processes are complex, often controlled by phase change energetics. River flows are impacted by poorly quantified human activities. This paper discusses the scientific and technical challenges of the large‐scale modelling of cold region systems and reports recent modelling developments, focussing on MESH, the Canadian community hydrological land surface scheme. New cold region process representations include improved blowing snow transport and sublimation, lateral land‐surface flow, prairie pothole pond storage dynamics, frozen ground infiltration and thermodynamics, and improved glacier modelling. New algorithms to represent water management include multistage reservoir operation. Parameterization has been supported by field observations and remotely sensed data; new methods for parameter identification have been used to evaluate model uncertainty and support regionalization. Additionally, MESH has been linked to broader decision‐support frameworks, including river ice simulation and hydrological forecasting. The paper also reports various applications to the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River basins in western Canada (0.4 and 1.8 million km2). These basins arise in glaciated mountain headwaters, are partly underlain by permafrost, and include remote and incompletely understood forested, wetland, agricultural and tundra ecoregions. These illustrate the current capabilities and limitations of cold region modelling, and the extraordinary challenges to prediction, including the need to overcoming biases in forcing data sets, which can have disproportionate effects on the simulated hydrology.

Chloride Toxicity to Native Freshwater Species in Natural and Reconstituted Prairie Pothole Waters.

Oil and gas extraction in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern USA has resulted in elevated chloride concentrations in ground and surface water due to widespread contamination with highly saline produced water, or brine. The toxicity of chloride is poorly understood in the high hardness waters characteristic of the region. We evaluated the toxicity of chloride to two endemic species, Daphnia magna (water flea) and Lemna gibba (duckweed), exposed in field-collected waters (hardness ~ 3000mg/L as CaCO3) and reconstituted waters (hardness 370mg/L as CaCO3) intended to mimic PPR background waters. We also investigated the role of chloride in the toxicity of water reconstituted to mimic legacy brine-contaminated wetlands, using two populations of native Pseudacris maculata (Boreal Chorus Frog). Chloride toxicity was similar in field-collected and reconstituted waters for both D. magna (LC50s 3070-3788mg Cl-1/L) and L. gibba (IC50s 2441-2887). Although hardness can ameliorate chloride toxicity at low to high hardness, we did not observe additional protection as hardness increased from 370 to ~ 3000mg/L. In P. maculata exposures, chloride did not fully explain toxicity. Chloride sensitivity also differed between populations, with mortality at 2000mg Cl-/L in one population but not the other, and population-specific growth responses. Overall, these results (1) document toxicity to native species at chloride concentrations occurring in the PPR, (2) indicate that very high hardness in the region's waters may not provide additional protection against chloride and (3) highlight challenges of brine investigations, including whether surrogate study populations are representative of local populations.

The Essential Role of Wetland Restoration Practitioners in the Science-Policy-Practice Process

We conducted a “living laboratory” study using a holistic transdisciplinary approach to demonstrate how new scientific tools and policy instruments could be mobilized to achieve wetland restoration goals. Our living laboratory was situated on the prairie pothole landscape in the province of Alberta, Canada, where policies require the replacement of lost wetland habitat. We created tools to map ditch-drained wetlands and to measure their functions in terms of hydrological health, water quality improvement, and ecological health to optimize targeting of wetland restoration sites. We also tested new policy instruments to incentivize private landowners to restore ditch-drained wetlands. However, we arguably failed in the implementation of the restoration program due to barriers that severely limited landowner participation, resulting in only a small number of wetlands being restored. Despite strength in science and a profound understanding of the policy, on-the-ground restoration work was stalled due to the interactive effects of environmental, social, economic, and political barriers. We discovered that despite our focus on overcoming the science-policy gap, it is the practice realm that requires more attention from both scientists and policy makers engaged in wetland restoration activities. Generally, the tools we developed were irrelevant because of complex interactions between actors and barriers within the policy, governance, and site-specific contexts that limited the use and application of the tools. Our living laboratory highlights the risks of engaging in use-inspired research without having a clear understanding of the actors and the interacting contexts that influence their behavior, motivations, and risk tolerance. Informed by our experiences, we offer key considerations for better engagement of practitioners in the design and implementation of wetland restoration programs.

Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence

Abstract. Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are forecast to retract in their ranges due to climate change, and potholes that typically contain ponded water year-round, which support a larger proportion of biological communities, are most sensitive to climate change. In addition to climate, land use activities and topography also influence ponded water amounts in PPR wetlands. However, topography is not typically included in models forecasting the impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands. Using a combination of variables representing climate, land cover/land use and topography, we predicted wetland permanence class in the southern Boreal Forest, Parkland and Grassland natural regions of the Alberta PPR (N = 40 000 wetlands). We show that while climate and land cover/land use were strong predictors of wetland permanence class, topography was as important, especially in the southern Boreal Forest and Parkland natural regions. Our misclassification error rates for the gradient boosting models for each natural region were relatively high (43–60) though our learning rates were low (< 0.1) and our maximum tree depths shallow (5–7) to balance bias and overfitting. Clearly, factors in addition to climate, topography and land cover/land use influence wetland permanence class (i.e., basin size, depth, ground water connectivity, etc.). Despite classification errors, our results indicate that climate was the strongest predictor of wetland permanence class in the Parkland and Grassland natural regions, whereas topography was most important in the southern Boreal Forest Natural Region among the three domains we considered.

Hydric vegetation communities across rural, peri-urban, and urban zones within the Prairie Pothole Region

Wetland and pond hydric vegetation is impacted across the rural, peri-urban, and urban zones by anthropogenic activities such as agricultural production, industrial manufacturing, and urban development. Previous studies have assessed urban and rural wetland vegetation, but have rarely explored the peri-urban zone of development. Therefore, to investigate the impacts of urbanization on hydric vegetation, thirty pond sites (10 rural, 10 peri-urban, and 10 urban) were randomly selected within each of the three zones. The vegetation community at each site was assessed using a quadrat method to compare the vegetation composition. In addition, floristic quality based on the conservatism value of each plant species was used to assess wetland vegetation. Results show plant communities of rural sites differed from both urban and peri-urban sites due partly to urbanization reducing the cover of obligate wetland species. Peri-urban sites contained the highest species richness, due to the increase in introduced plants associated with urbanization. Urban sites contained the lowest species richness, some of which is due to the use of rock riprap surrounding the edges of most sites. The plant conservatism values of vegetation were not different for rural and peri-urban sites, but were significantly lower in urban sites. Information from this study is useful to wetland professionals, environmental managers, and urban planners to predict hydric vegetation responses within peri-urban areas in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Cooling Effects Revealed by Modeling of Wetlands and Land‐Atmosphere Interactions

AbstractWetlands are important ecosystems—they provide vital hydrological and ecological services such as regulating floods, storing carbon, and providing wildlife habitat. The ability to simulate their spatial extents and hydrological processes is important for valuing wetlands' function. The purpose of this study is to dynamically represent the spatial extents and hydrological processes of wetlands and investigate their feedback to regional climate in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America, where a large number of wetlands exist. In this study, we incorporated a wetland scheme into the Noah‐MP land surface model with two major modifications: (a) modifying the subgrid saturation fraction for spatial wetland extent and (b) incorporating a dynamic wetland storage to simulate hydrological processes. This scheme was evaluated at a fen site in central Saskatchewan, Canada and applied regionally in the PPR with 13‐year climate forcing produced by a high‐resolution convection‐permitting model. The differences between wetland and no‐wetland simulations are significant, with increasing latent heat and evapotranspiration while suppressing sensible heat and runoff in the wetland scheme. Finally, the dynamic wetland scheme was applied in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The wetlands scheme not only modifies the surface energy balance but also interacts with the lower atmosphere, shallowing the planetary boundary layer height and promoting cloud formation. A cooling effect of 1–3°C in summer temperature is evident where wetlands are abundant. In particular, the wetland simulation shows reduction in the number of hot days for >10 days over the summer of 2006, when a long‐lasting heatwave occurred. This research has great implications for land surface/regional climate modeling and wetland conservation, especially in mitigating extreme heatwaves under climate change.

Functional dispersion of wetland birds, invertebrates, and plants more strongly influenced by hydroperiod than each other

AbstractThe relative role of biological and abiotic filters in the assembly of co‐occurring taxa is of broad interest to ecologists. While some authors point to biological interactions (e.g., competition) as the stronger driver of ecological selection, others assert that abiotic conditions are more important because they filter species at the regional level. Because communities influenced by a dominant abiotic filter (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region [PPR] wetlands, each varying in their ponded water permanence) often have strong cross‐taxon relationships, we can study these communities to better understand the relative influence of abiotic versus biotic filters on community structure. Using functional dispersion as our measure of communities, we test six alternate hypotheses about the relative importance of various pathways representing influence of biological and permanence filters on birds, aquatic macroinvertebrates, and wetland plants in the northwest PPR using structural equation modeling. We aimed to understand whether (1) ponded water permanence alone explained functional dispersion; (2) the influence of permanence on functional dispersion was direct or mediated; and (3) abiotic filtering by permanence was stronger than biotic filtering by co‐occurring taxa. The best model suggests that there is a direct influence of permanence on the functional dispersion of each taxonomic group and that both bird and macroinvertebrate functional dispersion are causally related to plant functional dispersion, though for invertebrates, the influence of plants is much less than that of permanence. Thus, the relative importance of wetland permanence and the functional dispersion of co‐occurring taxa depend on which taxon is considered in PPR wetlands.

Understanding the Dominant Moisture Sources and Pathways of Summer Precipitation in the Southeast Prairie Pothole Region

AbstractSummer rainfall in the southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important part of a vital wetland ecosystem that various species use as their habitat. We examine sources and pathways for summer rainfall moisture, large‐scale features influencing moisture delivery, and large‐scale connections related to summer moisture using the Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Analysis of HYSPLIT back trajectories shows that land is the primary moisture source for summer rainfall events indicating moisture recycling plays an important role in precipitation generation. The Great Plains Low‐Level Jet/Maya Express is the most prominent moisture pathway. It impacts events sourced by land and the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), the secondary moisture source. There is a coupling between land, atmosphere, and ocean conveyed by large‐scale climate connections between rainfall events and sea surface temperature (SST), Palmer Drought Severity Index, and 850‐mb heights. Land‐sourced events have a connection to the northern Pacific and northwest Atlantic Oceans, soil moisture over the central U.S., and low‐pressure systems over the SEPPR. GoM‐sourced events share the connection to soil moisture over the central U.S. but also show connections to SSTs in the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the GoM, soil moisture in northern Mexico, and 850‐mb heights in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Both types of events show connections to high 850‐mb heights in the Caribbean which may reflect a connection to Bermuda High. These insights into moisture sources and pathways can improve skill in SEPPR summer rainfall predictions and benefit natural resource managers in the region.

Limited Land Base and Competing Land Uses Force Societal Tradeoffs When Siting Energy Development

AbstractAs human populations grow, decisions regarding use of the world's finite land base become increasingly complex. We adopted a land use–conflict scenario involving renewable energy to illustrate one potential cause of these conflicts and resulting tradeoff decisions. Renewable energy industries wishing to expand operations in the United States are limited by multijurisdictional regulations in finding developable land. Interest groups entreat industries to avoid land for various reasons, including avoidance of prime wildlife habitat in accordance with an “avoidance-first” mitigation strategy. By applying a uniform set of rules for renewable energy facilities to the Prairie Pothole Region and portions of the Northern Great Plains, we evaluated the effects of regulations and avoidance of prime wildlife habitat on the amount of land available for development. In our scenario, existing regulations excluded 39% of the project area from potential development, with human infrastructure accounting for 30% (10–66% among states), whereas federally protected species accounted for < 1% at project area and state levels. Unregulated lands accounted for 61% of the project area, with conservation areas predicted as high-quality sites for breeding grassland birds and waterfowl and for migrating whooping cranes Grus americana accounting for 19% within the project area (6–27% among states). This model demonstrated a limited land base available for new development when accounting for regulations and concerns of a subset of societal interest groups. Additional interest groups likely will have different and competing concerns, further emphasizing the complexity of future land-use decisions as the available land base for development diminishes.

Incorporating the Filling–Spilling Feature of Depressions into Hydrologic Modeling

Surface depressions are one of the important impact factors of hydrologic processes and catchment responses. However, in many hydrologic models, the influence of depressions is often simulated in a lumped manner, which results in the insufficient characterization of the filling–spilling–merging–splitting dynamics of depressions and the threshold behavior of the overland flow. The objective of the research reported in this paper is to improve the simulation of depression-influenced hydrologic processes by capturing the threshold control of depressions. To achieve this objective, a Depression-oriented Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-D) is developed. Specifically, the intrinsic changing patterns of contributing area and depression storage are first determined and further incorporated into the SWAT to simulate the filling–spilling of depressions and depression-influenced overland flow dynamics. The SWAT-D was applied to a depression-dominated watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region to evaluate its performance and capability. The simulated and observed hydrographs at the watershed outlet showed good agreement, with only a 7% deviation between the simulated and observed volumes of discharges in 2004. The NSE values for the simulated monthly average discharges during calibration and validation periods were 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, indicating the ability of the SWAT-D in reproducing the depression-influenced catchment responses. In addition, the SWAT-D was compared with other depression-oriented modeling techniques (i.e., the lumped depression approach and probability distribution models), and the comparisons emphasized the improvement of the SWAT-D and the importance of the research reported in this paper.

Monitoring surface water dynamics in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota using dual-polarised Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series

Abstract. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) represents a large system of wetlands with great importance for biodiversity, water storage and flood management. Knowledge of seasonal and inter-annual surface water dynamics in the PPR is important for understanding the functionality of these wetland ecosystems and the changing degree of hydrologic connectivity between them. Optical sensors that are widely used for retrieving such information are often limited by their temporal resolution and cloud cover, especially in the case of flood events. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors can potentially overcome such limitations. However, water extent retrieval from SAR data is often impacted by environmental factors, such as wind on water surfaces. Hence, robust retrieval methods are required to reliably monitor water extent over longer time periods . The aim of this study was to develop a robust approach for classifying open water extent in the PPR and to analyse the obtained time series covering the entire available Sentinel-1 observation period from 2015 to 2020 in the hydrometeorological context. Open water in prairie potholes was classified by fusing dual-polarised Sentinel-1 data and high-resolution topographical information using a Bayesian framework. The approach was tested for a study area in North Dakota. The resulting surface water maps were validated using high-resolution airborne optical imagery. For the observation period, the total water area, the number of waterbodies and the median area per waterbody were computed. The validation of the retrieved water maps yielded producer’s accuracies between 84 % and 95 % for calm days and between 74 % and 88 % for windy days. User’s accuracies were above 98 % in all cases, indicating a very low occurrence of false positives due to the constraints introduced by topographical information. The observed dynamics of total water area displayed both intra-annual and inter-annual patterns. In addition to differences in seasonality between small (<1 ha) and large (>1 ha) waterbodies due to the effect of evaporation during summer, these size classes also responded differently to an extremely wet period from 2019 to 2020 in terms of the increase in the number of waterbodies and the total area covered. The results demonstrate the potential of Sentinel-1 data for high-resolution monitoring of prairie wetlands. Limitations of this method are related to wind inhibiting the correct water extent retrieval and to the rather long acquisition interval of 12 d over the PPR, which is a result of the observation strategy of Sentinel-1.

High abundance of a single taxon (amphipods) predicts aquatic macrophyte biodiversity in prairie wetlands

Conservation programs often aim to protect the abundance of individual species and biodiversity simultaneously. We quantified relations between amphipod densities and aquatic macrophyte (large plants and algae) diversity to test a hypothesis that biodiversity can support high abundance of a single taxonomic group. Amphipods (Gammarus lacustris and Hyalella azteca) are key forage for waterfowl and are declining in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We sampled a large gradient of amphipod densities (0–7050 amphipods/m3) in 49 semi-permanent wetlands, and 50% of the study wetlands had high amphipod densities (> 500 amphipods/m3). Generalized linear models revealed G. lacustris and H. azteca densities increased exponentially with macrophyte diversity indices. Further, H. azteca densities were greatest at moderate levels of submersed vegetation biomass. Community analyses showed both amphipod species were positively associated with diverse macrophyte assemblages and negatively associated with high coverage of cattails (Typha spp.), a taxon that creates monotypic stands, as well as bladderwort (Utricularia spp.), a carnivorous plant. Our results indicate that amphipods could be used as an umbrella species for protecting diverse macrophyte communities in semi-permanent and permanent wetlands of North America’s Prairie Pothole Region.

Landscape composition, climate variability, and their interaction drive waterfowl nest survival in the Canadian Prairies

AbstractFor upland‐nesting ducks that rely on grassland and wetland habitats in landscapes characterized by human alteration and a strongly fluctuating climate, information on how landscape composition interacts with climate is needed to better understand the security of conservation investments and to inform adaptive management in a changing climate. We characterized spatial and temporal variation in a 10‐year study of nest survival of five species of upland‐nesting ducks at study areas across the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region. We assessed factors affecting nest survival across gradients of landscape composition, climate, and duck density. Habitat characteristics influenced nest survival at multiple scales spanning nest‐scale vegetation density to landscape‐scale perennial cover abundance, with the relative magnitude of spatial variation in nest survival greater than that of temporal variation in this study. An interaction between climate and landscape composition suggested that intact landscapes can moderate the effects of interannual variation in climate, reinforcing the importance of habitat conservation in a changing climate. Measured nest survival rates ranged from 4.7% to 40.5% and were high enough to sustain duck populations in only 31% of study areas, barring sustained climatic conditions suitable for elevating other breeding season vital rates, suggesting the need for continued investment in waterfowl conservation.

Space–Time Variability of Summer Hydroclimate in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) experiences considerable space–time variability in temperature and precipitation, and this variability is expected to increase. The PPR is sensitive to this variability—it plays a large role in the water availability of the region. Thousands of wetlands in the region, sometimes containing ponds, provide habitats and breeding grounds for various species. Many wildlife management decisions are planned and executed on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales and would benefit from knowledge of seasonal conditions at longer lead times. Therefore, it is important to understand potential driving mechanisms and teleconnections behind space–time climate variability in the PPR. We performed principal component analysis on summer precipitation of the southeastern PPR (SEPPR) to determine the leading principal components (PCs) of variability. These PCs were used to establish teleconnections to large-scale climate variables and indices. They were also used to determine potential mechanisms driving the precipitation variability. There were teleconnections to Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) resembling the Pacific decadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, low 500-hPa heights over the western United States, and the Palmer drought severity index over the SEPPR. A large-scale low pressure region over the northwestern United States and a pattern like the Great Plains low-level jet, observed in the 500- and 850-hPa heights and winds, are a potential mechanism of the precipitation variability by increasing precipitation during wet PC1 years. These findings can inform management actions to maintain and restore wildlife habitat and the resources used for those actions in the PPR.

Prairie Pothole Management Support Tool: A web application for evaluating prairie pothole flood risk

AbstractThe Prairie Pothole Management Support Tool (PPMST) is an open‐source, accessible web application that provides educational and informational evaluations of the flood risk of individual farmed prairie potholes within the Des Moines Lobe (DML) of Iowa. The PPMST provides a comparative numeric assessment of pothole flood risk, predicted from a random forest machine learning model, based on simple field characteristics. The PPMST allows landowners or extension specialists and consultants to assess a range of tillage and artificial drainage options and can compare traditional corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotations with perennial planting. The PPMST will be useful for conservation planning and precision agriculture by helping identify and prioritize these marginal land areas for continued farming or conservation.

Prevalence of Microplastics in the Gastrointestinal Tracts of Dabbling and Ground Foraging Waterfowl in the Midwest Prairie Pothole Region

Prevalence of Microplastics in the Gastrointestinal Tracts of Dabbling and Ground Foraging Waterfowl in the Midwest Prairie Pothole Region

Integrating SAR and Optical Remote Sensing for Conservation-Targeted Wetlands Mapping

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains numerous depressional wetlands known as potholes that provide habitats for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Mapping these wetlands is essential for identifying viable waterfowl habitat and conservation planning scenarios, yet it is a challenging task due to the small size of the potholes, and the presence of emergent vegetation. This study develops an open-source process within the Google Earth Engine platform for mapping the spatial distribution of wetlands through the integration of Sentinel-1 C-band SAR (synthetic aperture radar) data with high-resolution (10-m) Sentinel-2 bands. We used two machine-learning algorithms (random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM)) to identify wetlands across the study area through supervised classification of the multisensor composite. We trained the algorithms with ground truth data provided through field studies and aerial photography. The accuracy was assessed by comparing the predicted and actual wetland and non-wetland classes using statistical coefficients (overall accuracy, Kappa, sensitivity, and specificity). For this purpose, we used four different out-of-sample test subsets, including the same year, next year, small vegetated, and small non-vegetated test sets to evaluate the methods on different spatial and temporal scales. The results were also compared to Landsat-derived JRC surface water products, and the Sentinel-2-derived normalized difference water index (NDWI). The wetlands derived from the RF model (overall accuracy 0.76 to 0.95) yielded favorable results, and outperformed the SVM, NDWI, and JRC products in all four testing subsets. To provide a further characterization of the potholes, the water bodies were stratified based on the presence of emergent vegetation using Sentinel-2-derived NDVI, and, after excluding permanent water bodies, using the JRC surface water product. The algorithm presented in the study is scalable and can be adopted for identifying wetlands in other regions of the world.

Estimates of breeding season location for 4 mesic prairie bird species wintering along the Gulf Coast

During the last 2 centuries, widespread declines have been observed in migratory species, and these declines have largely been linked to anthropogenic causes. Migrants move across multiple spatiotemporal scales with wide-ranging movements that can cross multiple jurisdictions. Consequently, conservation and management require the incorporation of these wide-ranging movements. However, for many nongame species, basic information on migration and wintering ecology is poorly known. Yellow Rails (Coturnicops noveboracensis), LeConte's Sparrows (Ammospiza leconteii), Nelson's Sparrows (A. nelsoni), and Sedge Wrens (Cistothorus stellaris) represent a diverse avian assemblage that breeds in prairie potholes, boreal forest, and coastal areas of northern and eastern Canada and winters in coastal prairies in the southern United States. We used a stable deuterium isotope (δ2Hf) analysis to assign breeding season locations for individuals captured wintering in the southeastern US. We obtained deuterium values from secondary feathers of birds spending the nonbreeding season from Oklahoma and Texas east to Florida. We found substantial differences in the δ2Hf values of Yellow Rails and Nelson's Sparrows, with birds wintering in Oklahoma and the western Gulf of Mexico having δ2Hf values that were probabilistically assigned to the western half of their breeding range, while birds wintering in Florida were probabilistically assigned to the eastern portion of their breeding range. LeConte's Sparrow breeding season assignments for birds wintering in Texas and Oklahoma overlapped. Sedge Wrens did not exhibit spatial variation in isotope values.

Habitat quality and drought effects on breeding mallard and other waterfowl populations in California, USA

AbstractAs many as 500,000 waterfowl reside in California, USA, during summer, but little is known about the availability or quality of their habitats. Wetland size and distribution serve as proximate cues for habitat selection by breeding waterfowl in other parts of North America such as the Prairie Pothole Region. In heavily modified landscapes such as California's Central Valley, disturbance from factors like crop cultivation and urban development may limit access, affect survival, and decrease reproductive success. Water limitations due to recurring seasonal droughts pose another potential threat to breeding waterfowl. Spatial and temporal disparities in environmental resources may provide clearer indications of ultimate habitat selection. We addressed waterfowl habitat selection in 9 regions surveyed annually by California's Department of Fish and Wildlife to determine relative importance of drought severity, wetland area, and habitat quality on mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other waterfowl population dynamics from 2007–2019. High‐quality habitat supports long‐term population persistence of waterfowl. This study period included an extended drought (2012–2015) and flooding (2016–2017). Statewide, habitat quality was the best predictor of mallard and other waterfowl population fluctuations. The model that included intermediate habitat quality, which accounted for influence of adjacent land‐use, outperformed models that included wetland area alone. At the regional level, drought severity out‐ranked other variables in most regions, suggesting management at regional scales must account for climate. Drought accounted for bird declines in some regions and possible increases in others. This information could be used to identify areas for conservation priority based on projected drought frequency and severity.