Foreign Policy Practice Research Articles

Not Everyone Will Be Taken into the Future? The Role of Forecasting in International Relations Theory

The 2010s witnessed intensified debates in international academia on the relationship between theory and forecast, but Russian scholarship remained detached from these discussions. This article intends to examine the contribution of theory to forecasting in IR, identifying prospects for combining the prescriptive, explanatory, interpretive and predictive functions of science. It reveals the origins of both theoretical skepticism about prediction and the countercriticism of futile theorizing. The article reveals the limitations of both the hypothetico-deductive model of scholarship, which dominates the discipline, and the statistical inductivism that opposes it. The analysis begins by identifying the different classes of theories in international relations studies. It demonstrates that the basic assumptions of normative, deconstructive, and interpretive theorizing are poorly compatible with prediction. The article further scrutinizes the ambivalent attitude of explanatory theories towards the matter, claiming the fundamental unpredictability of social interactions. It explores the growth in expectations since the late 2000s that the accumulation of big data and the advancement of methods for processing them will provide predictions without relying on explanatory inferences. Nevertheless, the value of scholarship for foreign policy practice requires a combination of theoretical explanations and predictive studies. This article suggests that for theory to play a major role in forecasting, forecasts must play a major role in theorizing. In this sense, reluctance to test their logical inferences with predictions exemplified by scholars poses a barrier to the development of IR studies.

Dare scholars look to the future? Academia and strategic foresight for the European Union's foreign policy

AbstractDrawing on examples of foresight projects situated at the interface between academia and foreign policy practice, this article reflects on the role of academics in informing the practice of foreign policy‐making in the EU. The study explores why academics have rarely engaged in foresight over the past two decades and why this has changed in recent years. It argues that this shift is triggered, on the one hand, by the strategic blunders of the last decade and, on the other hand, by the conceptual developments within the disciplines of political science or international relations. After demonstrating the growing trend of scholarly engagement in foresight with a series of illustrative examples, the article discusses the added value and limitations of academic‐generated foresight for EU foreign policy. Taking these into account, the analysis indicates best practice solutions, such as foresight exercises, with the joint involvement of researchers and policymakers.

Vacillating between cosmopolitanism and nationalism: German elite intellectuals in German-American academic diplomacy (1901–1916)

ABSTRACT The success of the Alliance Française in the United States inspired Germany to enhance its relations with the USA from a cultural perspective. Germany’s own cultural policy traditions and its foreign cultural policy practices provided the theoretical basis for the development of a cultural policy towards the USA. Germany, which firmly believed in its position as a pioneer of world culture, hoped to distinguish itself from the cultural competition with France by generously transferring knowledge to the Americans and to gain a political and economic ally. In German-American academic diplomacy at the beginning of the twentieth century, German intellectual elites had already attempted to move away from the power-state and militaristic foreign-policy thinking that had prevailed in the Empire, and they harboured internationalist dreams of culture as a means of overcoming national antagonisms. Nevertheless, unfortunately, these intellectual elites were still unable to shake off nationalist values, even as Karl Lamprecht, who had joined the Society for International Understanding, embraced Pan-Germanism again after the beginning of World War I.

Foreign education policy practices, core training, and international exchange and cooperation among Chinese vocational teachers

Foreign education policy practices, core training, and international exchange and cooperation among Chinese vocational teachers

Overlooking nature: the Arctic, climate change, and environmental diplomacy in the study of Canadian foreign policy

ABSTRACT This article examines three prominent concepts in post-Cold War foreign policy in Canada: the Arctic, climate change, and environmental diplomacy. We study the prevalence of articles on these topics in the wider field of Canadian foreign policy studies, who is responsible for their production, and how they relate to each other and to the broader field of Canadian foreign policy studies. Through a quantitative analysis of these concepts in six academic journals between 1989 and 2022, we find that contrary to their importance to Canadian foreign policy practice during that time, the Arctic, climate change, and environmental diplomacy are: (1) marginal to mainstream scholarship on Canadian foreign and security policy; (2) conceptually closely linked together; and (3) shaped by the knowledge production of a relatively small epistemic community of scholars. We outline the methodology of our literature review for the Arctic, climate change, and environmental diplomacy within Canadian foreign policy scholarship, present our findings, and discuss their significance for understanding these topics within the broader field of Canadian foreign policy studies.

Popular Leader as an Asset of Soft Power: The Ratings of National Leaders and their Countries Abroad

Abstract The original concept of soft power embraced the belief that culture, values and foreign policy practice are the basic resources upon which this type power is based. This article argues that popular national leaders can also – maybe even more so – be treated as soft power resources as their popularity and trustworthiness go hand in hand with the positive public opinion about their countries abroad. This hypothesis is tested against survey data collected from all over the globe by the U.S.-based polling institute Pew Research Center over the last two decades. The data shows a strong positive correlation between the public confidence in a leader and the view of their country abroad in almost every case that was examined. The view of a country among foreign audiences often changes with the change of its top leadership. The results of this reseach cast doubt on whether national culture and values rather than national leaders are the preeminent source of soft power of any given country in international politics.

Primakov Readings-2023: modern realities, results and recommendations

The article examines the results and recommendations of the Primakov Readings held on November 27–28, 2023, which are the main scientific and expert forum for international diplomats, economists and lawyers in our country and abroad. They confirmed this reputation in the past year, bringing some clarity to the current state of the international relations environment, the content and nature of the world order, the situation around globalization and other trigger points in the theory and practice of international relations, foreign policy and diplomacy. In particular, in the speeches of the heads of various international structures and organizations, a new assessment was made of the passing era of globalization, the state of the world order and the system of international relations as a whole; a conclusion was made about the inevitability of changing the unipolar world order to a multipolar one, and the main participants in the transformation of the modern world order and those influencing this the process is factual.

Foreign policy and citizens’ ontological security: An experimental approach

Ontological security theory posits that states seek to provide their citizens not just physical but also cognitive security, mostly through routinised foreign policy practices that reinforce notions of the national Self. Several studies established this theoretical assertion at the individual level, using various qualitative methods. This study adds to the literature by taking an experimental approach to provide further empirical support. It develops a novel index for the measurement of foreign policy behaviour’s effect on individual citizens’ ontological security and employs it in a survey experiment. The experiment examines whether Jewish-Israelis experience change in their sense of ontological security due to their state’s deviation from its long-standing offensive–defensive security doctrine. The findings demonstrate that citizens indeed form an attachment to their state’s foreign policy practices and that deviation from them can impair their sense of ontological security. This suggests that seemingly rational, strategically warranted policies might sometimes bear unexpected costs for policymakers.

France - African States: some aspects of decentralized cooperation

This study examines a new phenomenon in the history of relations between France and its former colonies - the implementation in recent years of decentralized cooperation programs with African states, in particular, the interaction of French regions, as administrativeterritorial units, with African partners. The study provides a brief overview of the history of the French colonial empire, which allowed the author to distinguish several stages in its management and functioning. The research method was the study of cooperation programs in various spheres initiated by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, state agencies, regional councils, as well as international associations of territorial entities, along with specific examples of cooperation, particularly the signing of agreements directly between the French regions and the central authorities of African nations. As a result of this study, the author concludes that experience of decentralization of France’s foreign policy activities can be partially used in the Russian Federation foreign policy practice.

British Edition of the Monroe Doctrine versus ‘Com- munist Militarism’: Collisions between the USSR and the UK in Eastern Countries in the mid-1920s

The new US foreign policy concept in the Western hemisphere introduced by the American President J. Monroe in December 1823 has become a milestone both in the country’s history and in the theory and practice of international relations in general. For Great Britain, the principles of the Monroe Doctrine acquired new relevance after the end of the First World War. The prospect of unfettered Bolshevik expansion into British colonies and dependent territories in Asia and Africa became a matter of particular concern for the UK ruling circles. It was this threat that forced the military and political elites of Great Britain to turn to the experience of their overseas counterparts and develop a set of measures that can be described as the British edition of the Monroe Doctrine. These measures were directed right against the Bolsheviks’ attempts to revolutionize the national liberation movement and to use it to undermine the ‘colonial rear’ of the imperialist powers. British decision-makers interpreted these attempts as a Bolsheviks’ endeavor to revive the foreign policy practices of the Russian Empire and denoted them as ‘communist militarism’. It is through the lens of the collision of the British edition of the Monroe Doctrine and the concept of ‘communist militarism’ that this study examines the dynamics of the Soviet-British confrontation in Central Asia in the mid-1920s. Special attention is paid to the struggle that took place between the two countries in Iran (Persia), Afghanistan, northwest India, Xinjiang and Tibet. This competition for influence over local rulers took a variety of forms: from information and propaganda campaigns to rivalry in the field of infrastructure and logistics projects. At the same time, it was accompanied by a constant clash of interests of various factions within the USSR and Great Britain, which prevented them from pursuing a coherent policy in the region. Together, these circumstances endowed the Soviet-British rivalry in Central Asia in the 1920s with a number of unique features that does not allow it to be interpreted as just yet another round of the ‘Great Game’.

Authoritarian middle powers and the liberal order: Turkey's contestation of the EU

Abstract The conventional expectation that middle powers support the liberal international order (LIO) is now increasingly being questioned. This article seeks to explore why and how emerging authoritarian middle powers contest the LIO through a study of Turkey's contestation of the EU. By conceptualizing contestations of the LIO as claims to global justice, the article examines the justice claims that underlie Turkey's contestation; with regard to discourse, it does so through a qualitative content analysis of President Erdoğan's speeches, and with regard to practice, through a survey of Turkey's contestatory foreign policy practices. The article shows that middle powers can discursively attack the legitimacy of the LIO by underlining its constituents' failures in upholding their moral duties towards citizens extending beyond their borders (impartiality) and to those who suffer from structural inequalities in the international order (mutual recognition). It demonstrates that their contestatory practices, however, are made with a view to pursue the sovereign interests of the state, with minimal regard for impartiality and mutual recognition. The article unpacks this inconsistency and finds that authoritarian middle powers' contestation of the LIO is mainly driven by concerns for regime security, where the centrality of an issue area to the government's survival prospects is the key factor which determines whether contestation will occur.

Power struggle on subjectivity and foreign policy: a post-structuralist analysis of JDP’s policies towards the United States (2002–2016)

ABSTRACT This article analyses Turkish foreign policy towards the United States (US) during the Justice and Development Party (JDP) era by using a post-structuralist approach. Post-structuralism posits that foreign policy is a political practice reflecting domestic power struggles. Moreover, subjectivities and foreign policy practices are neither universal, objective, nor predetermined, since they are co-constitutive. From this theoretical perspective, the article explores the JDP’s 'foreign policy' discourse on US-Turkish relations, highlighting discursive practices in legitimising specific subjectivities, such as 'conservative' and 'Muslim' ones, as 'inherent' origins of foreign policy conduct. In two phases, 2002–2009 and 2009–2016, it analyses how changes in JDP’s foreign policy preferences towards the US function to legitimise or marginalise particular subjectivities in its power struggle vis-à-vis 'Kemalist' state elites. Ultimately, the article concludes that the JDP’s discourse exhibits a continuity in hegemonising the 'Islamic' subjectivity ascribed to the Turkish population, despite changes in foreign policy decisions.

Formation of soviet sports diplomacy: structures and practices

The article is devoted to the formation of a new foreign policy practice - sports diplomacy - in the USSR in the 1920s. The key documents that established the order of interaction of sections within the Red Sports International, as well as Soviet athletes with the external environment, are analyzed. These resolutions clearly reflected the contradictions in the accents of the activities of the RSI and the SCPC: the aspiration for mainly propaganda work and the consolidation of the labor movement collided with the desire to raise the competitive level of Soviet sports. Despite these contradictions, in the 1920s it was possible to unify the practice of international work-sports interaction, to make it systematic. The evolution of working methods has been studied: both competitive forms of interaction and non-competitive practices - patronage and socialist competition. It is shown that the tools of sports diplomacy of the USSR in the first decade of its existence were not static, it changed in accordance with new tasks and challenges - from overcoming foreign policy isolation to strengthening the internal structure of the movement and the formation of self-defense squads by foreign sports clubs. The circle of interaction of the RSI and the SCPC with supranational organizations and Soviet institutions of power is defined. Intensive ties with the CEC, the PCFA and the Soviet embassies, which provided financial support, accelerated visa issuance, as well as advisory assistance, indicate a great attention to foreign policy sports contacts of the highest state bodies of the USSR. The conclusion is made about the formation of a systematic and regular practice of sports diplomacy of the Soviet state since the early 1920s.

Positive Peace in the Islamic Perspective of International Relations: The Case of Iran’s Foreign Policy

The characteristics of the interpretation of the concepts of “positive” and “negative” peace within the framework of the Islamic paradigm of international relations, as well as the application of Islamic approaches to conflict settlement by the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) are analyzed. The relevance of the study is due to the need to rethink approaches to peacekeeping and move away from Western peace strategies and initiatives, since these approaches have demonstrated their inadequacy over the past 50 years. Based on the hermeneutic method of studying the Islamic sacred texts and comparative analysis, as well as the approach to “negative” and “positive” peace of the Norwegian sociologist J. Galtung, the authors justify the existence of two strategies for achieving peace, based on Islamic ideals - “resistance strategy” and “non-violence strategy,” using as an example of the first one the foreign policy activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran to resolve regional conflicts, taking Syria, the Palestinian problem and the Hormuz Peace Initiative as examples. The authors come to the conclusion that Islam considers only “positive peace” to be true peace, capable of ensuring security, a fair world order and universal equality. Iran, guided by the ideological attitudes generated by the Islamic Revolution of 1978-1979 (spirituality, the fight against corruption and economic injustice, the protection of the ‘oppressed’ and the fight against the ‘oppressors,’ the rejection of violence in social movements, the elimination of social discrimination, governance based on the people’s decision), seeks to introduce Islamic principles into its foreign policy practice, particularly in the Middle East. However, with a number of Arab countries in the region pursuing anti-Iranian policies, some of Tehran’s initiatives remained unrealized and did not gain support. Nevertheless, in the current context where the Western-centric world order is being revised, it is more relevant than ever to explore alternative approaches to conflict resolution and to identify their advantages and significance, based on practical examples that already exist.

Indonesia’s Foreign Policy in Promoting a Moderate Islamic Identity after the Reform

This study aims to analyze the factors that have led to changes in Indonesia’s foreign policy, which initially avoided the emergence of a moderate Islamic identity but currently makes efforts to promote it. The research is essential as it sheds light on Indonesia’s foreign policy practices, which have historically refrained from emphasizing an Islamic identity, despite the country’s predominantly Muslim population. Furthermore, this research holds significant importance as it addresses the negative perceptions of Islam, which have often associated it with terrorism, intolerance, and opposition to peace, particularly from Western perspectives. In this study, the researchers utilized a qualitative descriptive method employing content analysis techniques to analyze the collected data. The examination of Indonesia’s foreign policy reveals its aspirations to pursue international interests by actively engaging in maintaining global peace and prioritizing a moderate Islamic identity. This study concludes that a moderate Islamic identity, as a facet of identity, is not inherently problematic or conflict-ridden; rather, it has the potential to bridge the divide between the West and Islam. Moreover, Western countries express their desire to cultivate networks of moderate Islam and view Indonesia as a competent partner in countering global terrorist networks. This cooperation stems from the shared principles of democracy and respect for human rights upheld by both the West and Indonesia.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Trade Openness and Inflation: Evidence from MIKTA Countries

Foreign trade plays a key role in the development of a country's economy and international social relations. Accordingly, the increase and decrease in a country's trade openness directly and indirectly affects macroeconomic indicators. In short, it is important to know the expected relationship between trade openness and inflation for a country's economy. Investigating the relationship between trade openness and inflation is important in keeping inflation under control, along with foreign trade policy practices. On the other hand, the theoretical basis of the association between trade openness and inflation is known with the Romer (1993) Hypothesis. According to the Romer Hypothesis, it is argued that an increase in trade openness will negatively affect inflation. However, although there are findings supporting this theory for the studies done so far, there are empirical studies expressing the opposite. This study has investigated this relationship in MIKTA countries. Kónya (2006) panel causality test was used in the study using annual data between 1960 and 2020. In result of the paper, it is found that there is no causal linkage between trade openness and inflation in countries. These results do not coincide with the Romer (1993) Hypothesis.

The Taliban and Their Machiavellian Moment

The Taliban 2.0 have made overtures to states across different regions to seek international recognition. In a departure from their past isolationist foreign policy practices, I argue the Taliban have expediently, yet uncharacteristically, pursued these initiatives in a spirit of “ pragmatism.” The modus vivendi they have reached with Iran demonstrates the Taliban’s unprecedented prioritization of pragmatism over ideology. I draw upon Machiavellian pragmatism in International Relations theory to examine the shift in the Taliban’s political posture through the lens of Iran–Afghanistan relations in three crucial episodes: the Taliban’s rule over Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the post-9/11 Afghanistan, and the resurgence of the Taliban since August 2021.

Chinese Foreign Relations Grand Strategies: From Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping

The importance of the article is the fact or of increasing political, economic, and military power of the People’s Republic of China; the extremely sharp confrontation between China and the United States in foreign policy and economics; political and economic destabilization of European countries in the context of the Ukrainian crisis (2014–2022) et al. The purpose of the article is to show the evolution of a grand foreign policy strategy from 1949 to the present. Since the early 2000s Chinese scientific community and scholars from other countries are discussing new foreign policy concepts, such as China’s peaceful rise, peaceful development, harmonious world, Community with a shared future for mankind, and other modern diplomatic theories and initiatives. There is still a number of interrelated important questions that need to be answered: how China’s grand strategy is being implemented and how effective it is; are the strategies of previous generation leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping at present still relevant? The leading method is the historical-comparative one, which made it possible to compare strategies in the Chinese historical focus. The study found significant changes in both diplomatic work and foreign policy practice, which is characterized by decisiveness, activity and is less filled with successive content.

Analysis of Putin’s Foreign Policy Practices Within The Context of Political Psychology

The Russian Federation, which continued as its successor state after the collapse of the USSR and was one of the hegemonic powers during the Cold War period could not maintain this position both militarily and economically in the first years, but with the improvement of its economy in time, it regained its norm maker status. Russia, reborn from its ashes with this norm-making status, aims to be the dominant power in the new era, as seen in the revisionist foreign policy practices it displayed in the II. Chechen War, the Georgian War, the annexation of Crimea and the Donbass Events under the leadership of its new "charismatic leader" Putin. In addition, the Russian Federation has the motivation to establish a cultural hegemony through its efforts to construct a unique identity with the help of diaspora Russians and individuals belonging to the Russian world. Putin, who brought the Russian Federation back to the norm-maker status in the new world order, carries out revisionist policies in the region, especially based on the near abroad doctrine and these policies significantly change the structure of international relations. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate these changes in the context of political psychology through important events in Putin's life. In the study, discourse analysis was used as a method, and thus the relationship between the social and psychological context produced by Putin and the conditions affecting the discourse was examined.

What is a vishwaguru? Indian civilizational pedagogy as a transformative global imperative

Abstract Ambitions for India to enact the role of vishwaguru or ‘world teacher’ are a conspicuous feature of foreign policy discourse under contemporary Hindu nationalist rule in India. This discourse, and India's foreign-policy practice, engage the international realm with a puzzling intensity given Hindu nationalism's inward-looking and exclusionary emphasis on majoritarian cultural unity. In this article, I leverage International Relations scholarship on social closure, international order and recognition struggles to examine the historical lineages and recent articulations of nineteenth-century religious reformist ideas about India's world mission and spiritual superiority. I argue that different Indian civilizational imaginaries across time produce a pedagogical imperative, aimed at the transformation of global social hierarchies. Centred on a quest to assert social superiority and remake the terms of recognition, any given vishwaguru project nonetheless relies on international recognition. The recent domestic and diasporic appeal of Hindu nationalist foreign policy stems from how it appears to intervene to rectify the longstanding misrecognition of India. In this context, western liberal states' instrumental recognition of India as a democratic partner and defender of liberal order in the face of a ‘China challenge’ works to endorse and bolster the vishwaguru project of India's current domestic political moment.