Power Transition Research Articles

Rational Origins of Revisionist War

Abstract The rise of China has returned attention to the links between power transitions and war. In this literature, three different causal mechanisms can be confused. This essay disentangles them. Power transitions can lead to three kinds of war: preventive, accidental, and revisionist. Formal models tend to study the first, in which a declining state tries to delay or prevent a rival’s ascent. However, major wars during great power transitions are usually initiated by the rising state, not the declining one. To describe these historical cases, less formal theories, especially neorealism and neoclassical realism, focus on accidental and revisionist wars, but these theories tend to fall back on nonrational mechanisms to connect changing power to the risk of conflict. This leaves a theoretical gap: Why would a rising, rational actor deliberately choose conflict, i.e., start a revisionist war? To suggest an answer, this essay demonstrates how a simple change in standard bargaining models—incorporating a nonzero probability of indecisive war—can ground realist intuitions on rationalist foundations. It further shows how this change leads immediately to an intuitive, formal definition of stability that aligns naturally with existing informal work. Then, contrary to existing realist theory, it shows why the rigorous analysis of realist assumptions leads to a nonmonotonic relationship between the offense/defense balance and war. It thus uses realism to inform and potentially redirect formal scholarship; it also uses formal scholarship to sharpen the logical foundations of realism and, in so doing, derive novel empirical predictions. The essay concludes by applying this synthesis to the rise of China today and indicating directions for deepening the formal/realist synthesis.

A Comparative Analysis of RCEP and IPEF from the China-U.S. Competition

On January 1, 2022, the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into effect. On May 23rd, 2022, the United States officially launched the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework"(IPEF). The two agreements cover the major economies in Asia-Pacific region and have become the two most important paths for the economic cooperation in this region. However, there are conflicts of interest among these economies involved in RCEP and IPEF, and there are differences in cooperation objectives, binding forces, integration standard, as well as driving forces, which may lead to fierce competition among them in the process of Asia-Pacific economic integration. Based on the basic viewpoints of hegemony stability theory and power transition theory, this study compares the competitiveness of RCEP and IPEF from the background and contents. And analyzes the prospects of the two agreements from the global supply chain crisis, American foreign policy, the substantial progress of the two agreements and the geopolitical security in the Asia-Pacific region. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for China to meet the challenge of IPEF.

Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission, the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain. Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies. This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios. The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors, while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector. Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth. By 2060, economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY, value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY, and employment will increase by about 3.74 million. Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run, accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run. By 2060, accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%, value-added by 8.20% and jobs by 7.97%. Accordingly, the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

Identification of key influencing factors to Chinese coal power enterprises transition in the context of carbon neutrality: A modified fuzzy DEMATEL approach

Coal power is the major force behind the flexible peaking of China's power system. Its complete phaseout is unrealistic and may cause multiple problems related to social stability. Therefore, how to guarantee a steady and orderly transition of coal power is critical. To promote coal power to transform smoothly, this study applies a modified fuzzy Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) approach to identify key influencing factors and their influence-influenced connection in Chinese coal power transition, basing on a state-owned coal-fired plant. Firstly, by surveying literatures and consulting experts, an index system of 12 main factors is identified, which includes 4 dimensions (management capability, market price, resource allocation, society environment). Then, the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets (IT2FSs), Ordered Weighted Average (OWA) operator, and K-means clustering algorithm are used to optimize the approach. Six factors are judged as key influencing factors in coal power plant's transition according to the findings, among which policy, units' configuration, and market prices are included with high scores. Finally, political solutions are proposed to facilitate the efficient transition of coal plant.

Putin’s Rise to Power: Russian Roulette or Elite Pact?

Abstract The article is devoted to the current state of the discussion around transition of power in Russia in 1999-2001. The authors rely both on the patronal approach to show post-Soviet specificity and on the theory of neo-elitism to show its universal features. This transition was the point at which the highly differentiated post-Soviet elite was able to create a fragile base for integration. The article shows that it is possible to apply the theory of the elite pact to the Russian case, but the effects of the pact itself may ultimately differ from the trajectory of movement towards democracy predicted by the neo-elite theory. The trajectory deviates from the given one due to the patronal ribbon structures and the reversibility of the differentiation process. A new form of elite pact in Russia is possible, but the newborn elite coalition is doomed to be unsustainable unless a new constitutional reconsolidation follows.

How not to deal with a rising China: a US perspective

Abstract Will China displace the United States as the world's leading power by the centenary of Communist rule in 2049? The outcome will depend on many unknowns including what the two countries do over the next three decades. US leaders are likely to rely on their mental maps of how the world works. The primary sources of their mental maps tend to come from historical analogies and from international relations theories. Both are highly imperfect representations of reality. Historical metaphors and analogies are rife in the debate over how to understand the current rise of China, but three are particularly salient: a Thucydides trap; a new Cold War; and 1914 sleepwalkers. This article discusses the merits and demerits of relying on each of these analogies in turn, and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of prior mental maps that guided US policy-makers during the post-Cold War era. Chinese elites expect to replace the US as the leading global power by 2049. How should the US respond? Two prevalent historical analogies are misleading: a Thucydides trap about power transition, and a new Cold War that ignores the three-dimensional nature of US–China interdependence. More promising is the cautionary narrative of sleepwalking into the First World War. A successful strategy must lay out conditions for a cooperative rivalry starting with a careful net assessment of power resources and the formulation of feasible goals.

Optimal Strategy for Low-Carbon Development of Power Industry in Northeast China Considering the ‘Dual Carbon’ Goal

With China’s carbon peak and target proposed and the power system as an important source of carbon emissions, its carbon reduction issues are of great concern. However, the mismatch between power demand, resources, and generation facilities in different regions of China creates enormous carbon reduction pressures, especially in the region covered by China’s Northeast Power Grid (NE Grid). Therefore, in this study, a two-stage power optimization model considering Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) was established to optimize the national power generation and transmission in China from 2020 to 2060 first and then to optimize the regional road map of energy structure adjustment for China’s NE grid and its CO2 storage strategy. The first stage optimization results show that the national power interaction in China can make full use of the energy resource advantages of the NE grid, especially Jilin and Mengdong, delivering clean electricity to the North China grid as it reaches its “dual carbon” goal. Additionally, the second-stage optimization results show that the NE grid can make good use of CCUS for its thermal power transition. Annual CO2 storage will peak at 204 Mt in 2050 as thermal power withdraws in the NE grid region, which provides a reference for other regions to realize carbon neutrality of their power system by using CCUS.

The Inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol Government and Prospects for South Korea–Japan Relations

Since 2012, South Korea-Japan relations have deteriorated structurally in the long run, and the conflict between South Korea-Japan relations has expanded and deepened since the Moon Jae-in government. The conflict over historical issues, including the comfort women and the wartime forced labor, are the main factors that worsened the bilateral relations, but since 2018, confrontation has also expanded in the economic and security areas. In the background of the spread of conflict in all directions of South Korea-Japan relations, there is a phenomenon of power transition in international politics in Northeast Asia. While China is rapidly emerging as a superpower, South Korea has emerged as a mid-sized country through democratization and economic growth, and Japan is facing a decline in relative national power. The South Korea-Japan relationship is no longer a vertical relationship, but a horizontal relationship. In the meantime, the relations between two countries have become more misunderstood and biased in mutual recognition via medias, and strategically underestimate the importance of the other party. The dialogue and communication between leaders have long been cut off, and mutual trust has declined. However, since the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol government in May 2022, South Korea has been making multidimensional efforts to improve relations with Japan and normalize relations. While gathering wisdom to solve the wartime forced labor issue, it is focusing on cooperation in North Korea policy and restoring the security cooperation system between South Korea, the US, and Japan. Even if the Kishida government has evaluated the Yoon government's efforts to improve bilateral relations, it has not been able to show an active attitude to improve relations on its own.

Coordinated Control for Performance Enhancement of an Islanded AC/DC Microgrid With Uninterrupted Power and Seamless Transition Capabilities

This article presents a simplistic control approach and multimode operation of a wind-solar-based ac/dc microgrid. The islanded microgrid consists of a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) for wind energy conversion, and a solar photovoltaic array for solar energy conversion. In this configuration, the stator terminals of DFIG are connected at the point of common intersection (PCI) of ac loads via a stator-side solid-state transition switch ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">S</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">SSTS</sub> ). The developed control strategy is designed to seamlessly disconnect and reconnect the DFIG stator from the PCI based on the <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">S</i> <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">SSTS</sub> operation, without interrupting power to ac and dc loads in the microgrid. The disconnection of stator terminals is required in the event of a prolonged period of no wind generation from the DFIG. The controller is synthesized to ensure no or low transient effect during the transition between the two operating modes, i.e., DFIG stator connected mode (SCM) and stator disconnected mode (SDM). Further, the power quality enhancement of stator voltages and currents amidst nonideal ac loads is ensured without need for computationally exhaustive approaches involving sequence decompositions, notch filters, resonant regulators, or load current sensors. Moreover, the power quality enhancement at the DFIG stator is achieved without injecting any undue harmonics in the DFIG rotor currents. The effectiveness of this islanded microgrid is verified through obtained results from a developed laboratory prototype.

미중관계: 통합분석예측 모델 시론

This study is to suggest an integrated approach of three levels of ‘structure,’ ‘process,’ and ‘actor’ to analyze and predict US-China relations. At the level of structure, this study finds that a power transition is going on, that a power competition between ‘rebalancing’ and ‘counterbalancing’ is developing, and that conflicting strategic goals are sought for. US-China relations would develop into a competition/conflict-dominant mode in the long-term. But this competition/ conflict-dominant relations would be mitigated by resuming diplomacy and increasing trade between two countries. Finally, the competition/conflict-dominant relations would be amplified by the perceptions of each other by the leadership as the only ‘revisionist challenging’ state and a containing state of rising China.

Frequency Deviation-Free Compound Control Strategy for Seamless Mode Transfer in Microgrids Based on VSG

Virtual synchronous generators (VSG) are widely applied in microgrid technology due to their ability to withstand the impact of grid-connected inverters without inertia. The frequency deviation in the droop control of VSG has a reducing effect on the hosting capacity of the microgrid. Therefore, this article proposes a VSG-based frequency deviation-free control strategy. When the microgrid is in the island/grid connected switching operation mode, it will result in violent fluctuations of the active power on the condition that there is a reactive and fast power change. Therefore, the delay characteristic of a synchronous generator is introduced into VSG to achieve a smooth transition of reactive power and steady-state value that lowers the impact on the system. The rotational inertia is a fixed value, which may fail to meet certain control requirements of the microgrid, such as suppressing power oscillation and rapidly recovering frequency. The fixed moment of inertia is later on improved to an adaptive inertia moment that can effectively solve the problem of rapid rise and fall of frequency as well as improve the frequency response of the microgrid. Finally, the simulation model is established by MATLAB to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed control algorithm.

Transition of power: the problems of Britain’s post-imperial relationship with Malta, 1964-1971

ABSTRACT There is growing recognition that the end of formal empire did not equate with the ending of ties between the imperial power and its erstwhile dependencies. This was especially so of the ‘fortress colony’ of Malta which following constitutional separation from Britain in September 1964 remained firmly linked to Britain economically and militarily. The existing historiography suggests that Britain actively sought to maintain imperial connections after decolonisation, even to the extent of attempting to convert formal empire into informal influence. The case of Malta, by contrast, indicates that the remaining imperial ties proved increasingly vexatious for Britain which sought either to limit its liabilities or even transfer them to its NATO allies. For their part, the Maltese proved adept at manipulating, cajoling, and even threatening the former imperial power to maintain and even increase its commitments to the island, especially in the military and financial fields.

Power, shared ideas and order transition: China, the United States, and the creation of the Bretton Woods order

The claim that transitions in international order are not only products of transitions in power, but also products of transitions in shared ideas is now relatively uncontroversial in the International Relations literature. Yet persistent gaps remain in understanding how ideas are shared, and which states play a role in sharing an international order’s ideas. This paper demonstrates that ideas are shared through social, interactive processes, which involve both superordinate states and subordinate ones. Nevertheless, as a result of their unequal power, subordinate state agency is typically expressed when subordinate states operate in conjunction with superordinate ones, a finding that poses empirical challenges for studying subordinate states’ ideas and their order-shaping role. To resolve this challenge, the paper explores how a pair of superordinate and subordinate states – the United States and the Republic of China – operated in conjunction with one another to shape the transition to a post-WWII order at Bretton Woods. It examines cases of idea convergence and divergence between the United States and China; carefully disentangles the conscious and unconscious drivers of idea convergence; and highlights three distinct mechanisms – amplifying, grafting and resistance by appropriation – through which subordinate states shape a changing order’s shared ideas.

Low-Carbon Transition Paths of Coal Power in China’s Provinces under the Context of the Carbon Trading Scheme

The importance of coal power in maintaining the security of the national power supply and the stability of the grid is irreplaceable for China at present, as was reflected in the “power shortage” event of 2021. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, the low-carbon transition paths of coal power for each province were analyzed in the context of China’s emission trading scheme (ETS). The prospect and importance of coal power was preliminarily analyzed first. Following the “bottom-up” direction, the real option method was used to establish decision models for investing in carbon capture, utilization and storage equipment (CCUS) and eliminating high carbon-intensive units. Results showed that Inner Mongolia will first adopt CCUS in 2037 and the thresholds can be met in all provinces before 2050. However, the ETS will not lead to the elimination of coal power during the studied period. Combined with an evaluation of the development potential of coal power, four transition paths were distinguished for Chinese provinces. Considering that China’s ETS is in the developing stage, its full potential for stimulating the low-carbon transition of coal power was further discussed. On this basis, several policy implications were provided.

Towards a typology of solar energy landscapes: Mixed-production, nature based and landscape inclusive solar power transitions

Development of ground-mounted solar power plants (SPP) is no longer limited to remote and low population density areas, but arrives in urban and rural landscapes where people live, work and recreate. Societal considerations are starting to change the physical appearance of SPPs, leading to so-called multifunctional SPPs. In addition to electricity production, multifunctional SPP produce food, deliver benefits for flora and fauna, mitigate visual impact or preserve cultural heritage. In this paper, we systematically examine the different spatial configurations of multifunctional SPPs that reflect a range of contemporary societal considerations. The purpose of this research is to create and test an SPP typology that can support evidence-based and transparent decision-making processes, from location finding to implementation. Comparative case analysis, expert interviews and questionnaires are used to distinguish different types of SPP. We propose a typology that consists of four dimensions: energy, economic, nature and landscape. These dimensions lead to three main types of multifunctional SPP: mixed-production, nature-inclusive, landscape-inclusive, and their combinations. This typology supports decision-making processes on solar power plants and adds to the existing (solar) energy landscape vocabulary. In doing so, the research supports the transformation of energy systems in a way that meets both the quantitative goals and qualitative considerations by society.

In a New Light: Histories of Women and Energy

In a New Light: Histories of Women and Energy

Contingent Power in the 21st Century Against the Backdrop of Hegel’s Philosophy of Right – Trump and Twitter as Two Sides of the Same Coin?

Abstract The Owl of Minerva only spreads its wings at dusk. This Hegelian realization might also apply to the last days of Donald Trump in office which brought about many a precedent in the relationship not only between the then President of the United States and its constitution but also between him and his main means of communication: Twitter. The president’s tumultuous communication surrounding the transition of power climaxed in an angry mob storming the Capitol in a vain attempt to – dependent on whose narrative one credits – either restore or abolish democracy. Twitter’s subsequent decision to ban Trump from using its services for arguably inciting or at least condoning the insurrection quickly led to heated discussions rooted in the issue of the allocation of power within contemporary societies. At the core of these discussions lie two central elements: freedom and the (legitimate) power to restrict it. One side argued that the platform operators had infringed Trump’s freedom of speech. In contrast, the other side claimed that abridging Trump’s ability to communicate whatever came to his mind was an inevitable step to protect the American constitutional order and thus liberal democracy. Meanwhile, attention has gradually been focused on the larger underlying issues. One common aspect is that both positions seem to presuppose a concept of freedom that is all too formalistic. On a more abstract level, the events also boil down to a clash of two separate claims to power: Social media operators opposing the head of state’s claim to do as he wishes. Thus, the paper aspires to analyze the sources of legitimacy for the actions taken by platform operators and their respective counterparts. The analysis is based on Hegel’s Philosophy of Right. In particular, Hegel’s understanding of freedom, the ideal state and of possible legitimate sources for universal rules shall be put to use. The first point of contact in Hegel’s Philosophy of Right is his view of the head of state, his relation to the law, especially to the constitution, and to his constituents. Against this backdrop, it shall be determined how power is distributed in Hegel’s state. Then, an attempt shall be made to transfer the underlying ideas and considerations to the power structure and the legitimizing factors as they are laid down in the US Constitution. Furthermore, the paper examines the state’s possibilities to react to possibly problematic behavior of the head of state. The focus will be placed on the possibility of holding them accountable for actions directed against the state itself or its constitutional order. Particularly against the backdrop of the questionable efficacy of impeachment procedures in deeply divided nations, the question arises as to whether private actors can legitimately intervene. Concretely, whether social media operators may legitimately bar heads of state from using their platforms in order to protect the state, the legal system or democracy.

Rent Distribution Modes in Azerbaijan and Belarus: Implications for the Opposition

The study uses the theoretical framework of rentier states to compare the political economies of Belarus and Azerbaijan and the differing conditions created for the political opposition. It conducts a comparative analysis of the structural and agency factors affecting these conditions, focusing on the sources, control and the mode of distribution of rents in the two states. While both states combine post-Soviet legacies with rentier economies, they have different sources of rents. The study shows a ‘converging divergence’ of these two rentier states, based on the analysis of their type (pure rentier or semi-rentier state) and demonstrates the role of power transition in determining the distribution of rents. The combination of these variables, in turn, shapes different types of regimes—exclusive patronage in Azerbaijan and inclusive distributive rent-seeking in Belarus—and creates different tasks for the political opposition in terms of ideology and forming Western alliances.

A study of carbon peaking and carbon neutral pathways in China's power sector under a 1.5°C temperature control target.

The clean and low-carbon transition of China's power sector is of great importance to the achievement of dual carbon targets and the control of global warming. This paper first estimates the remaining carbon budget of the power sector under a 1.5°C temperature control target and on this basis constructs 1.5°C and 2°C power transition scenarios, examining key boundary conditions such as economic development and changes in the cost of power generation technologies. Second, the Genetic Algorithm-Extreme Learning Machine (GA-ELM) model is used to forecast the electricity demand for the next forty years. Finally, with the objective of minimising the total planning cost, a pathway optimisation model of the power system is constructed to explore the optimal transition path for the power system using the dual carbon target, carbon budget and electricity demand as the main constraints. The results of the study show that the carbon budget of the Chinese power sector is approximately 7.1 × 1010 t CO2 for a 1.5°C temperature control target. The electricity demand tends to saturate after 2050 and reaches 1.58 × 1013 kWh in 2060. The time of the carbon peak and carbon neutralisation in the power sector is 5years ahead of the double carbon target. By 2060, the power system will be dominated by new energy sources, with the proportion of installed non-fossil energy capacity at over 90% and the proportion of non-fossil energy generation at over 85%. Compared to that under the 2°C temperature control target, the power sector under the 1.5°C temperature control target needs to accelerate the pace of the low-carbon transition of electricity and deal with key issues such as the orderly withdrawal of coal power, the construction of a diversified clean energy system and the application of carbon capture devices. This study recommends that the process of building a zero-emissions power sector requires a good pace of the construction of new power systems at a suitable pace, increased efforts to tackle key technologies and improved relevant market mechanisms. China's carbon-neutral pathway in the power sector also has implications for other countries' clean, low-carbon transitions of their power systems.

Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate Change and Power Transition Theory

Two of the biggest issues in international politics today are climate change and the ongoing power transition between the United States and China. However, very few works examine the way these issues interact with each other. This paper attempts to resolve this by integrating climate change into power transition theory (PTT), which attempts to capture the behavior of states in the midst of transition to or from global power. This paper first analyzes the literatures on the (tenuous) links between environmental degradation and interstate conflict as well as PTT. Opportunities for integration are then examined, especially focusing on climate change's impact on the central variables of power and state satisfaction. These theoretical links are then applied to the looming US-Sino transition and highlight how climate change opens up new arenas of great power competition, exacerbates tensions and impacts relative power in unpredictable ways.