Model Predictive Control (MPC) is extensively utilized for demand response (DR) in commercial buildings. When deploying MPC in real buildings, the model uncertainty is unavoidable, which could come from multiple sources: incorrectly identified values of model parameters, unmeasured disturbances, sensor errors, etc. However, there is a lack of research on the effects of model uncertainty on the performance of MPC for DR events. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the impact of model uncertainty on MPC in coordinating multiple VRF systems in commercial buildings. A virtual testbed was developed to benchmark and evaluate different DR control algorithms. We compared rule-based control (RBC), priority stack-based control (PSBC), and MPC with model uncertainties. This involved assuming normal distributions with various means for biased and unbiased uncertainties and different standard deviations. Our results show that MPC is robust to model uncertainty. For costs saving tasks, when the model uncertainty is unbiased, MPC outperforms the RBC controller with fewer discomfort hours and lower energy costs when the uncertainty of cooling load is below 40 % and 90 %, respectively; when the model uncertainty is biased and increases gradually, MPC can only outperform RBC under small uncertainties of cooling load. For load tracking tasks, when the model uncertainty is unbiased, MPC outperforms PSBC in terms of fewer discomfort hours and lower power tracking error, even with a 100 % uncertainty of cooling load; when the model uncertainty is biased, it exhibits a similar pattern to the unbiased uncertainty. Last, this study compared the computation time and control performance of formulating MPC as integer versus linear programming, demonstrating that linear programming is more suitable for coordinating thermally controllable loads (TCLs) at large-scales due to its faster computation time and good tracking performance. This study provides valuable insights into the effects of model uncertainty on MPC performance in demand response and supports its practical application in commercial buildings.
Read full abstract