Power Sector In China Research Articles

Towards the prospect of carbon-neutral power system 2060: A Power-Meteorology-Society systematic view

With the target of achieving carbon peaking and neutrality in the power sector in China, both State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have made plans of a rapid increase of renewables in future years towards 2060. However, considering the interactions between the power system and meteorological, society factors, whether those plans would lead to CO2 emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 is still questionable and needs further analysis. Therefore, a Power-Meteorology-Society System is formulated and interactions between these factors will impact the CO2 emission of the power system is studied. Case study shows that these environmental, social factors as well as their interactions will have significant negative impact to the CO2 emission reduction in China's power grid; With current trend of generation and transmission development and higher-than-expected CO2 emission, while the grid could still reach its target of carbon peak in 2030, there will be some challenge for the grid to reach carbon neutrality in the year 2060. Based on that, the authors analyze some potential solutions such as transmission construction, energy storage and the Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), and try to find a relatively cost-benefit path to reach carbon-neutrality for the grid in 2060.

When Carbon Emission Trading Meets a Regulated Industry: Insights from Coal-fired Power Sector in China

When Carbon Emission Trading Meets a Regulated Industry: Insights from Coal-fired Power Sector in China

Decarbonization of the wind power sector in China: Evolving trend and driving factors

There is a worldwide consensus that renewable energy sources, such as wind power, will play an essential role in the global low-carbon energy transition. However, most quantifications of the CO2 emissions of wind power systems ignored the indirect footprints induced by supply chains. Thus, this study developed input–output (IO)-based hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) models based on China's 2007, 2012, and 2017 economic benchmark data to quantify the economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of China's wind power sector. Moreover, the key sectors driving the footprint variation were identified, and the footprint structure was analyzed via the production layer decomposition method. The study results confirm the decarbonization of the wind power sector in China, with a decrease in the GHG footprint from 52.27 g CO2e/kWh in 2007 to 21.23 g CO2e/kWh in 2017. This 59.38% GHG footprint reduction was mainly driven by the electricity and heat sector. Most of wind power's GHG footprint (more than 84%) was derived from upstream industries, highlighting the necessity of supply chain analysis in the governance of the wind power industry.

Inter-regional economic-environmental correlation effects of power sector in China

Power sector is the pillar industry to promote China's rapid economic growth. It is also one of the sectors with the largest carbon emissions and water consumption. The green transformation of the power sector has become the focus of China's provincial economic and environmental policies. However, due to the complex inter-provincial power sector linkage, provincial power policies have spillover and overlapping effects, making it difficult for policies to coordinate and complement each other. Here, we quantify the value-added, CO2 emissions and water consumption driven by inter-provincial power sector linkage in China, and proposes differentiated policies at provincial and sectoral levels for green transformation of power sector. By quantifying the economic and environmental correlation effects among China's provincial power sectors, we found that low-carbon transformation of power sector in industrial provinces have higher economic costs. East and North China's policies committed to emission reduction in power sector can save more water.

Air pollution and associated health impact and economic loss embodied in inter-provincial electricity transfer in China

As the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world, China heavily relies on coal resources for thermal power generation. Owing to the unbalanced distribution of energy resources, electricity transfer among regions in China plays a key role in promoting economic growth and ensuring energy safety. However, little is known about air pollution and the related health impacts resulting from electricity transfer. This study assessed PM2.5 pollution and related health and economic losses attributable to the inter-provincial electricity transfer in mainland China in 2016. The results show that a large amount of virtual air pollutant emissions were transferred from energy-abundant northern, western and central China to well-developed and populated eastern coastal regions. Correspondingly, the inter-provincial electricity transfer dramatically reduced the atmospheric levels of PM2.5 and related health and economic losses in eastern and southern China, while increasing those in northern, western and central China. The health benefits attributable to inter-provincial electricity transfer were mainly found in Guangdong, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Shandong, whereas the extra health loss is concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang. Overall, the inter-provincial electricity transfer led to an extra increase of 3600 (95 % CI: 3200–4100) PM2.5-related deaths and 345 (95 % CI: 294–389) million USD of economic loss in China in 2016. The results could assist air pollution mitigation strategies for the thermal power sector in China by strengthening the cooperation between suppliers and consumers of electricity.

Power generation expansion planning approach considering carbon emission constraints

Decarbonization of the power sector in China is an essential aspect of the energy transition process to achieve carbon neutrality. The power sector accounts for approximately 40% of China’s total CO2 emissions. Accordingly, collaborative optimization in power generation expansion planning (GEP) simultaneously considering economic, environmental, and technological concerns as carbon emissions is necessary. This paper proposes a collaborative mixed- integer linear programming optimization approach for GEP. This minimizes the power system’s operating cost to resolve emission concerns considering energy development strategies, flexible generation, and resource limitations constraints. This research further analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of current GEP techniques. Results show that the main determinants of new investment decisions are carbon emissions, reserve margins, resource availability, fuel consumption, and fuel price. The proposed optimization method is simulated and validated based on China’s power system data. Finally, this study provides policy recommendations on the flexible management of traditional power sources, the market-oriented mechanism of new energy sources, and the integration of new technology to support the attainment of carbon-neutral targets in the current energy transition process.

CO2 emission reduction effect of photovoltaic industry through 2060 in China

In the coming four-decade, China will face serious challenge while shifting to carbon neutral. Photovoltaic (PV) power, as one of the most promising clean energies, is seen as an important focus for decarbonization of the power sector in China. The novelty of this study is to use life cycle assessment (LCA) methods to analyze the CO2 emission reduction of the PV generation industry before 2060 base on the amount of energy and resources consumed and PV generation's CO2 reduction benefits during the whole industrial chain. This paper aims to examine CO2 emission reduction contribution, we firstly compute the historical emissions and predict future PV waste and new power capacity from 2010 to 2060. Then, considering the change of industrial structure and technological evolution, the yearly life cycle CO2 emission from producing stage to recycling stage is calculated. The key results show that the unit CO2 emission of PV system producing will reduce 88.07% from 2010 to 2060. PV generation industry's total CO2 emission has reached its neutrality between 2014 and 2015, and will reduce 33.03 Giga tons CO2-eq till 2060. The findings can offer relevant insights to low-carbon development of China's PV industry and will provide suggestions for policy-making.

Regulatory institutional reform of the power sector in China

In 2002, China established the State Electricity Regulatory Commission as part of the nation's electricity reform plan. However, this agency existed for only a decade, after which it was incorporated into the National Energy Administration (NEA), a governmental department. Why did the independent regulatory model not survive in China? This paper introduces the historical background of regulatory institutional change in China and evaluates current regulatory governance against the standard of agency independence. The findings indicate that the NEA can hardly be regarded as independent from the government and stakeholders. Subsequently, the paper explains the reason that independent regulatory institutions are not applicable in China from the perspective of institutional supply and demand. From the demand side, as the macroeconomic controller, the National Development and Reform Commission can deliver superior policy output compared to an independent regulator. In addition, public ownership makes it unnecessary for the government to create an independent regulator as a credible commitment mechanism. From the supply side, the traditional administrative arrangement and lack of regulatory economics knowledge contribute to an undersupply of independent regulation.

Regional differences and driving factors analysis of carbon emissions from power sector in China

Carbon emissions from the power sector (CEPS11CEPS: Carbon emissions from the power sector.) contribute more than 40% of carbon emissions to both the world and China, which is the key link of carbon emission reduction. In the context of China’s “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals, clarifying the regional differences and driving factors of CEPS is helpful to formulate carbon emission reduction policies. Based on the CEPS data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019, this study uses data statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the temporal and spatial differences of CEPS among provinces. Ten indicators are selected to construct a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model for the regression analysis of driving factors of CEPS in the provinces. During 2004–2019, the CEPS in China’s 30 provinces show obvious differences. The CEPS in Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi maintain a high rise, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan shows a downward trend. The global Moran’s I of provincial CEPS in China shows significant positive spatial autocorrelation, high-high clustering area is concentrated in North and East China, and low-low clustering area is distributed in Southwest China. The effects of various driving factors on provincial CEPS show obvious temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The power structure (PS), the thermal power energy consumption rate (TE) and the per capita electricity consumption (PC) have positive effects on CEPS in most provinces, while the contribution of the power industry (IC) has a negative effect. The effects of other indicators on different provinces fluctuate in different periods. In order to realize the low-carbon sustainable development of power sector, relevant measures such as improving the efficiency of thermal power production, optimizing power structure by region, and support the major power producing provinces are proposed.

Study on the decarbonization in China's power sector under the background of carbon neutrality by 2060

The power sector in China, which is the main CO2 emission contributor in the country, plays an essential role in achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Notably, there are scientific gaps regarding the decarbonization plan to achieve this goal and the future power supply structure. The objective of this study is to systematically explore and evaluate the feasibility of constructing a carbon-neutral power sector. Considering the power source potential, power supply characteristics, and advanced technologies, methodological steps were developed for the design and assessment of China's power sector. In particular, an evaluation indicator system was included to assess the decarbonization of the power sector and make it comparable in the international context. The results indicated that it is possible for the country's power sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, using available domestic energy resources. The total cost of the 100% non-fossil power sector was the lowest, accounting for 87.3% of that of the business-as-usual (BAU) power sector. Compared with the BAU power sector, the renewable power sectors had abatement costs of −0.12–0.43 kCNY/t. The negative abatement cost indicated that power sector decarbonization could be cost-effective in China. In the international context, the cost of electricity of the future China power sector (∼0.42 CNY/kWh) was comparable to that in other regions, while the CO2 abatement cost was lower than that in most regions. The proposed methodological steps can be beneficial for CO2 emissions reduction and energy structure conversion in the power sector of any region.

Life cycle assessment shows that retrofitting coal-fired power plants with fuel cells will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Life cycle assessment shows that retrofitting coal-fired power plants with fuel cells will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Immediate actions on coal phaseout enable a just low-carbon transition in China’s power sector

To meet the 2060 carbon neutrality target, China will need to phase out existing coal-fired power plants by 2050 or before. The electricity supply sector directly employs over 2 million and an additional 2 million when indirect employment including product and machinery production are included. To investigate the policy options and pathways available to meet the national climate goal while transitioning this jobs-intensive and economically powerful sector, we developed a plant-level job accounting model, and combine it with a power sector optimization model to assess job loss in the coal sector, as well as job creation in the burgeoning renewable power sector in China. We find that national and provincial policy actions to support an early and managed transition help to ensure a job-rich and both geographically and socioeconomically equitable shift from coal to clean energy. Specifically, the projected decline in fossil-fuel jobs can be fully offset by job new creation in the expanding renewable energy sector. Current COVID-19 economic stimulus plans include a potential new coal boom, where China could build up to 247 GW of additional plants, and thus delay the transition by a decade or more. We find that this action would result in up to 90% of coal-fired workers losing jobs between 2030 and 2040 without a clear pathway to absorb these workers in what will be an already mature clean energy economy. Provinces with massive coal fleets and limited renewable energy resources, notably Anhui, Henan, Hebei and Shandong, etc., would face a particularly disruptive mismatch of job gains and losses.

Decarbonizing the Coal-Fired Power Sector in China via Carbon Capture, Geological Utilization, and Storage Technology.

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a critical technology to realize carbon neutrality target in the Chinese coal-fired power sector, which emitted 3.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2017. However, CCUS technology is often viewed as an "alternative technology" option owing to common perceptions of relatively high cost and potential risks. This study indicates that coal power CCUS is likely to be a cost-effective and key technology for helping China reach the ambitious goal of carbon neutrality. This comprehensive, national-scale assessment of CCUS deployment on coal power in China is based on a unique bottom-up approach that includes site selection, coal plant screening, techno-economic analysis, and carbon dioxide source-sink matching. Analysis indicates that, based on 2017 costs and assumptions, more than 70% of coal power plants in this study could be cost-competitive with natural gas-fired power plants, and 22-58% would be cost-competitive with onshore wind generation. These insights suggest that the commercialization of CCUS technology in the coal power sector in China is a viable route toward decarbonizing the economy if a grid price policy similar to that of renewables and natural gas power is applied.

Evaluation of contagious effects of China's wind power industrial policies

In order to promote the sustainable development of the wind power industry, the Chinese Government has issued a series of related industrial policies. The promulgation of these policies not only greatly promotes the development of China's wind power sector, but may also generate potential contagion effects on other industries. This paper uses contagion tests based on linear dependence and higher-order co-moment statistics, such as co-skewness, co-volatility, and co-kurtosis, etc., to examine the contagion impacts of 8 relevant policies on 10 major economic industries in China for the period 2001–2018. The empirical results show that the wind power notices provide significant evidence of policy contagion than the national energy policies. Tail risk is more important in driving policy transmission as evident by third and fourth order co-moments which are significantly stronger than the correlation channel. It is not surprising that the financial sector is the industry most affected by the wind power sector in China, followed by the sectors of industrials and utilities which are closely related to the wind power.

Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China

As China ramped-up coal power capacities rapidly while CO2 emissions need to decline, these capacities would turn into stranded assets. To deal with this risk, a promising option is to retrofit these capacities to co-fire with biomass and eventually upgrade to CCS operation (BECCS), but the feasibility is debated with respect to negative impacts on broader sustainability issues. Here we present a data-rich spatially explicit approach to estimate the marginal cost curve for decarbonizing the power sector in China with BECCS. We identify a potential of 222 GW of power capacities in 2836 counties generated by co-firing 0.9 Gt of biomass from the same county, with half being agricultural residues. Our spatially explicit method helps to reduce uncertainty in the economic costs and emissions of BECCS, identify the best opportunities for bioenergy and show the limitations by logistical challenges to achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector with large-scale BECCS in China.

Towards the decarbonization of the power sector – a comparison of China, the EU and the US based on historical data

This work compares the different decarbonization strategies of the power sector in China, the European Union and the United States, by considering the historical evolution of electricity generation and the current situation. Such a comparison is gaining a broader significance when evaluated with an additional level of geographic detail, by comparing European countries, Chinese provinces, and US states. The differences among these geographies highlight the challenges and opportunities of pushing towards low-carbon technologies, by making clear that regional decarbonization will need to address very different local contexts. Moreover, multiple policy and planning levels are involved, and those mechanisms are different in the three blocs being compared. Our analysis shows that these three blocs, although moving towards similar decarbonization targets, are currently at different levels of carbon intensity. The zero-carbon pathway will need to be declined in different local goals, based on the availability of low-carbon resources and the electricity demand. Given the geographical differences between demand and supply, and the likely increase of electricity demand, an improvement of power transmission networks will be essential. This work is part of a series of papers on the geopolitics of the energy transition in China, the European Union and the United States of America.

Flexible CO2 capture in China

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is an important option for coal-fired power plants in China since they currently contribute about half the country’s CO2 emissions and the average age of the fleet is currently less than 15 years old. Previous studies on the operation of CO2 capture systems have identified several strategies for flexible operation that can improve the economics of CCS. However, these analyses assume liberalized electricity markets with variable pricing and very high levels of mandated capture leading to significant economic penalties associated with excess emissions. This is not the current situation in China. Here, we clarify the drivers and constraints for flexible CO2 capture applied to the power sector in China and show how optimal strategies could diverge, in the short to intermediate term, from best practices in other parts of the world. We complement this general analysis with a look at the ground-level situation in two regions in northern China where CCS is promising. Both perspectives suggest that strategies for flexible operation of CO2 capture developed to take advantage of variable dispatch prices in liberalized electricity markets are not valid in the China context in the near to intermediate term. Instead, we conclude that efforts to optimize the flexibility of CO2 capture should focus on capital cost reductions and flexibility in system design in support of staged deployment, along with the possibility of coordinated action across power plant fleets.

The Spillover Effect between Carbon Emission Trading (CET) Price and Power Company Stock Price in China

The power sector is one of the major contributors to China’s carbon emissions, and its low-carbon transformation is of vital importance to China’s long-term sustainable development. This paper aims to investigate the spillover effect between the carbon emission trading (CET) market and power sector in China from a systematic perspective. We adopted the recently developed method of connectedness network and rolling window approach, and found that: (i) during our sample period, the total static spillover index and the average of total dynamic spillover indexes were 60.5735% and 57.9704%, respectively, and the spillover effect of this carbon-power system was relatively strong; (ii) there is weak bidirectional spillover effect between the CET market and the power sector, and the CET market is a net receiver of the information from the power sector; (iii) the CET market may exert a relatively high degree of impact on the power sector occasionally; (iv) for regulated power companies, their interactions with the carbon-power system may be related to its total holding installed capacity and the proportion of renewable energy installed. This study provides implications for policymakers, company managers, and market participants.

Transition of China's power sector consistent with Paris Agreement into 2050: Pathways and challenges

With a high-carbon fuel mix and enormous space for efficiency potential, the power sector is critical to cope with global emission mitigation targets. The climate targets of less than 2 °C and even ambitious 1.5 °C confront China's power sector due to the rising momentum of power demand and the power mix dominated by coal power. Considering the potential carbon-emissions space of the power sector in China, this paper sets the alternative high-share renewable power, 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios that necessitate the zero-emissions and even negative-emissions for the power sector by 2050, and then proposes the pathways and outlines challenges to demonstrate the arduousness and uncertainty of the mega-project of power transition. The results indicate that a package of options is needed for the transition while unconventional bio-energy is the key to a 1.5 °C scenario. Notably, the coal power represents the largest barrier to low-carbon transition owing to the rising installation and massive stranded assets during the long-term reconfiguration of the power sector.

Coal power in China: A multi‐level perspective review

AbstractChina's coal‐fired power industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation. From a historical perspective, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the coal power sector in China, to understand the cause of the transition and where its future lies. Through the interactions among landscape, regime and niches, China's coal‐fired power industry has developed cleaner and more efficient, which positively mitigated the local pollution. Yet the decarbonization in the power sector is unsatisfactory. Due to its dominating role and nature of high‐carbon emitting, the coal power sector has always been a big challenge during China's climate actions. Although the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 demonstrates China's ambitions, expanding coal‐fired power generation capacity hinders climate change mitigation and low‐carbon transition. In this regard, we discuss the guidelines for the future high‐quality coal‐fired power development to provide recommendations for policy‐makers and industry stakeholders. China's coal power sector should commit to the vision of deep decarbonization by 2050.This article is categorized under: Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Policy and Planning > Climate and Environment