Power Sector Emissions Research Articles

A burden-sharing model shaping the embodied carbon emission and considering regions' efforts to reduce emissions in China's power sector

To achieve “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, reasonable burden-sharing for emission reductions among key players is critical. And reasonable burden-sharing requires scientific clarification of their actual emissions and responsibilities, and full accounting of efforts to reduce emissions. Therefore, this paper focuses on China's power industry and proposes a burden-sharing model that reflects regions' embodied carbon emissions and mitigation efforts. Moreover, considering the economic spillover effects of the power industry in different regions to re-define China's sub-regional emission reduction targets. Results show a significant difference in the flow of electricity embodied carbon among China's regions. The carbon embodied in the power industry increased by 948 million tonnes between 2012 and 2017, mainly due to changes in the structure of final demand and production. Furthermore, implementing the Emissions Trading System (ETS) has effectively curbed carbon emissions in seven pilot provinces and cities, namely Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hubei, Chongqing, and Fujian, especially Beijing. Spillover effects significantly impact the economic growth of provinces, and some provinces that have enjoyed the benefits of spillover effects should take more responsibility for emission reductions. In summary, each region has different allowances and it is suggested that differentiated policies should be implemented to promote regionally-ordered low-carbon development and achieve the dual-carbon goal.

Accelerating power grid interconnectivity in Southeast Asia: a private sector perspective

Abstract Integrating the power systems between member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can facilitate economic growth for the region and enable businesses to cost-effectively procure reliable, clean electricity. As corporations strengthen their clean energy commitments, the grid becomes an important enabler of power sector emissions reductions as well as economic development. This paper offers perspectives from the Asia Clean Energy Coalition (ACEC) on the importance of renewing the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the ASEAN Power Grid, focusing on accelerated implementation to expand multilateral power trade and cross-border grid interconnections. ACEC consists of clean energy buyers, sellers, and financiers that can drive economic growth. It supports strengthening the ASEAN Power Grid MOU to recognise the importance of holistic regional grid planning, prioritising interconnectors that scale up clean energy, harmonising regulatory and technical frameworks, and making data accessible to facilitate multilateral power trade and clean energy tracking.

Influence of extreme 2022 heatwave on megacities' anthropogenic CO2 emissions in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River

An unprecedented heatwave hit the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in August 2022. We analyzed changes of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 8 megacities over lower-middle reaches of the YRB, using a near-real-time gridded daily CO2 emissions dataset. We suggest that the predominant sources of CO2 emissions in these 8 megacities are from the power and industrial sectors. In comparison to the average emissions for August in 2020 and 2021, the heatwave event led to a total increase in power sector emissions of approximately 2.70 Mt CO2, potentially due to the increase in urban cooling demand. Suzhou experienced the largest increase, with a rise of 1.12 Mt CO2 (12.88 %). Importantly, we observed that changes in daily power emissions exhibited strong linear relationships with temperatures during the heatwave, albeit varying sensitivities across different megacities (with an average of 0.0076 ± 0.0075 Mt d−1 °C−1). Conversely, we find that industrial emissions decreased by a total of 8.45 Mt CO2, with Shanghai seeing the largest decrease of 4.71 Mt CO2, while Hangzhou experienced the largest relative decrease (−21.22 %). It is noteworthy that the majority of megacities rebounded in industrial emissions following the conclusion of the heatwave. We convincingly suggest a tight linkage between the reductions in industrial emissions and China's policy to ensure household power supply. Overall, the reduction in industrial emissions offset the increase in power sector emissions, resulting in weaker emissions for majority of megacities during the heatwave. Despite remaining uncertainties in the emissions data, our study may offer valuable insights into the complexities of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in megacities amidst frequent summer heatwaves intensified by greenhouse warming.

Unlocking Power: Impact of Physical and Mechanical Properties of Biomass Wood Pellets on Energy Release and Carbon Emissions in Power Sector

Abstract This study investigates the physical and mechanical properties of 12 biomass wood pellet samples utilised in a power generation, focusing on their implications for energy release and carbon emissions during combustion. Through comprehensive analysis involving bulk density measurements, compression tests, moisture analysis, calorimetry and controlled burning experiments, significant correlations among key properties are identified. Pellets with densities above 1100 kg/m3 demonstrate superior mechanical durability and strength, achieving maximum strengths of 0.6 to 0.8 kN with durability exceeding 99.4%. Optimal moisture content, typically between 6 and 7% is crucial for maximising density, bulk density, mechanical durability and fracture resistance, ensuring robust pellet structure and performance. The research underscores the impact of pellet dimensions, highlighting those longer lengths, > 12 mm enhance durability, while larger diameters > 8 mm exhibit reduced durability. Elemental analysis focusing on calcium, silicon and potassium plays a critical role in predicting and managing combustion system fouling, potentially reducing operational costs. Moreover, the study emphasises the significant influence of oxygen levels during combustion on CO2 emissions, achieving optimal results with moisture content in the 7–8% range for maximum higher heating value (HHV). The moisture content in the 14–15% range represents the lowest CO2 emission. The findings underscore the intricacy of the system and the interplay of parameters with one another. In accordance with the priority of each application, the selection of parameters warrants careful consideration. Graphical Abstract

Long-term source apportionment of PM2.5 across the contiguous United States (2000-2019) using a multilinear engine model

Identifying PM2.5 sources is crucial for effective air quality management and public health. This research used the Multilinear Engine (ME-2) model to analyze PM2.5 from 515 EPA Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites across the U.S. from 2000 to 2019. The U.S. was divided into nine regions for detailed analysis. A total of seven source types (tracers) were resolved across the country: (1) Soil/Dust (Si, Al, Ca and Fe); (2) Vehicle emissions (EC, OC, Cu and Zn); (3) Biomass/wood burning (K); (4) Heavy oil/coal combustion (Ni, V, Cl and As); (5) Secondary sulfate (SO42-); (6) Secondary nitrate (NO3-) and (7) Sea salt (Mg, Na, Cl and SO42-). Furthermore, we extracted and calculated secondary organic aerosols (SOA) based on the secondary sulfate and nitrate factors. Notably, significant reductions in secondary sulfate, nitrate, and heavy oil/coal combustion emissions reflect recent cuts in fossil-fueled power sector emissions. A decline in SOA suggests effective mitigation of their formation conditions or precursors. Despite these improvements, vehicle emissions and biomass burning show no significant decrease, highlighting the need for focused control on these persistent pollution sources for future air quality management.

DECARBONIZING A THAI COAL POWER PLANT: EFFECT OF FLUE GAS LOADS ON CARBON CAPTURE PERFORMANCE AND ECONOMICS

Abstract: The objectives of this study are to evaluate the technical and cost implications of retrofitting post-combustion Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in existing coal-fired power plants in Thailand, with a special focus on the Mae Moh plant managed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). We undertake a detailed analysis using AspenPlus simulation models to determine the optimum capture cost per ton of CO2 and to examine the effects of various flue gas loads on CO2 capture performance and cost-effectiveness. The research reveals a key operational insight: as the flow rate of flue gas increases, the cost to capture a ton of CO2 decreases, indicating economies of scale in CCS operations. Furthermore, the study explores the potential for integrating solar photovoltaic (PV) technology as a renewable energy source, which shows promise in lowering Thailand's power sector emissions and operational costs. By comparing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar PV against conventional coal-fired power generation and considering the country's favorable geographic and climatic conditions, solar PV emerges as an economically viable and environmentally sustainable alternative. The findings of this research aim to inform strategic energy policy decisions in Thailand, advocating for a transition to more sustainable energy systems and emphasizing the balance between environmental responsibility and economic feasibility.

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

Positive synergy or negative synergy: An assessment of the carbon emission reduction effect of renewable energy policy mixes on China's power sector

To reduce carbon emissions in China's power sector, a variety of renewable energy policy options have been introduced, which are expected to produce synergistic effects. This study used a continuous difference-in-differences model to evaluate the individual and synergistic effects of renewable energy policies on the carbon emission reduction of China's power sector. The results showed that renewable energy policies can achieve the target of decarbonizing China's power sector, with the feed-in tariffs proving to be particularly effective. The mix of feed-in tariffs, carbon emissions trading, and R&D subsidies can achieve the largest positive synergistic effects. In addition, any renewable energy policy mix (REPM) including tradable green certificates had no synergistic effect, and that there were no REPMs with negative synergy. The synergetic effect of REPMs decreased with the increase in policy diversity. This study provided a clearer understanding on the differentiated impacts of these policies and their mixes. Meanwhile, we propose to continue implementing the REPM in a continuing manner, and emphasize to focus on the complementary policies to maximize the synergies of policy mixes, such as introducing renewable portfolio standards when implementing tradable green certificates.

Flexible green hydrogen: The effect of relaxing simultaneity requirements on project design, economics, and power sector emissions

In many net-zero energy scenarios, electrolytic hydrogen is a key component to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and to provide flexibility to the power sector. In current energy systems that are not yet fully decarbonized, however, the hydrogen ramp-up raises the concern of increasing power sector emissions. To avoid such additional emissions, recent EU regulation defines requirements for electrolytic hydrogen to qualify as green along three dimensions: the additionality, the proximity, and the simultaneity of renewable electricity generation. Focusing on the temporal dimension, this article investigates the effects of a strict hourly simultaneity requirement, full temporal flexibility, as well as simultaneity exemptions in the current EU regulation. We develop a model of a renewables-hydrogen project, consisting of individual wind turbines, solar panels, hydrogen electrolysis, and hydrogen storage. As a novelty, the model optimizes not only dispatch but also investment decisions, and we expose it to different regulatory conditions. We show that a flexible definition of green hydrogen does not necessarily increase power sector emissions. By contrast, requiring hourly simultaneity implies that rational investors build much larger wind turbines, hydrogen electrolyzers, and hydrogen storage than needed—meaning additional costs and embedded carbon, underutilized assets, and a potential slow-down of green hydrogen deployment. These adverse effects can only partially be mitigated by including solar panels and by the EU simultaneity exceptions. We argue that current energy transition trends further lower the risk of increasing power sector emissions under a flexible definition of green hydrogen and recommend this as the way forward for a sustainable hydrogen policy.

Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits

Coal power sector plays a significant role in achieving carbon peaking in China. Due to the regional heterogeneity of socioeconomic level, peaking carbon emissions in coal power sector depends on the performances of China's provinces. This study aims to dynamically simulate the coal power demand and subsequent CO2 emissions in China's 29 provinces during 2020–2035, and evaluate CO2-related health co-benefits in life and economic loss. It is quantitatively found that the total coal power demand kept rising by 5.19% per year during 2009–2019. And the projection demand would still increase, ranging from 4687.26 ± 357.15 to 8897.13 ± 326.28 billion kW·h at the baseline. CO2 emissions under the rapid development scenario are less than in the other two scenarios, valuing 76.96 billion tons during the projection period. Results of spatial heterogeneity show that East China contributes to the most significant CO2 emissions, valuing 149.47, 156.11, and 190.21 mg/m3 of CO2 concentrations for 2020–2025, 2026–2030, and 2031–2035. Further, life and economic losses of CO2-related health impacts suggest significant health co-benefits of emission reduction. Our findings could provide a deeper understanding of potential peaking paths in coal power sector by provinces and assist policymakers in better establishing emissions reduction targets from a top-down perspective.

Co-firing plants with retrofitted carbon capture and storage for power-sector emissions mitigation

Co-firing plants with retrofitted carbon capture and storage for power-sector emissions mitigation

Modelling the impacts of carbon pricing in India’s power system using a dynamic optimization approach

India has a significant importance in achieving the global Paris agreement’s long-term goal as it is the world's third-largest consumer of energy. This paper aims to improve the understanding of the opportunities and constraints of decarbonizing India’s electricity sector and adds to the growing body of literature by modelling the electricity sector in India with a dynamic optimization approach that assesses options for effective greenhouse reductions through carbon pricing. Attaining significant variable renewable energy penetration in India by 2050 is consistent with the lowest cost power generation options identified through our simulations, where solar and wind can provide 66 % of the electricity needs by 2050, even without a carbon price. With a carbon price of US$50/tCO2e, the simulations project that wind and power generation share in the electricity mix will rise to 81 %, leading to significant emission reductions. In this scenario, power sector emissions will be 164 million tCO2e by 2050, which is only about 14 % of the emissions levels in 2019. The analysis also indicates that fossil fuels remain part of India’s electricity mix in 2050, but their role and operation would dramatically change. When a carbon price of US$50/tCO2e is introduced, coal capacity remains valuable to fill demand when solar and wind are not available. This would require modifications in operation schedules and repurposing coal power plants for frequent ramping up and down.

Monitoring and quantifying CO2emissions of isolated power plants from space

Abstract. Top-down CO2 emission estimates based on satellite observations are of great importance for independently verifying the accuracy of reported emissions and emission inventories. Difficulties in verifying these satellite-derived emissions arise from the fact that emission inventories often provide annual mean emissions, while estimates from satellites are available only for a limited number of overpasses. Previous studies have derived CO2 emissions for power plants from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and 3 (OCO-2 and OCO-3) satellite observations of their exhaust plumes, but the accuracy and the factors affecting these emissions are uncertain. Here we advance monitoring and quantifying point source carbon emissions by focusing on how to improve the accuracy of carbon emission using different wind data estimates. We have selected only isolated power plants for this study, to avoid complications linked to multiple sources in close proximity. We first compared the Gaussian plume model and cross-sectional flux methods for estimating CO2 emission of power plants. Then we examined the sensitivity of the emission estimates to possible choices for the wind field. For verification we have used power plant emissions that are reported on an hourly basis by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the US. By using the OCO-2 and OCO-3 observations over the past 4 years we identified emission signals of isolated power plants and arrived at a total of 50 collocated cases involving 22 power plants. We correct for the time difference between the moment of the emission and the satellite observation. We found the wind field halfway the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) yielded the best results. We also found that the instantaneous satellite estimated emissions of these 50 cases, and reported emissions display a weak correlation (R2=0.12). The correlation improves with averaging over multiple observations of the 22 power plants (R2=0.40). The method was subsequently applied to 106 power plant cases worldwide and yielded a total emission of 1522 ± 501 Mt CO2 yr−1, estimated to be about 17 % of the power sector emissions of our selected countries. The improved correlation highlights the potential for future planned satellite missions with a greatly improved coverage to monitor a significant fraction of global power plant emissions.

Evaluating the hourly emissions intensity of the US electricity system

High-quality data for the greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions associated with electricity generation and consumption are increasingly important to enable effective and targeted action to decarbonize the electric grid and to inform research in a range of academic disciplines including environmental economics, lifecycle assessment, and environmental health. To inform the broadest range of use cases, such data should ideally have a high temporal and spatial resolution, be available in as close to real-time as possible, represent the complete power sector, use the highest-quality measured data, have complete historical coverage, and represent both generated and consumed emissions. To date, no published datasets have achieved all of these characteristics. This work is the first to publish a comprehensive, plant-level dataset of hourly-resolution generation, fuel consumption, and direct CO2, NOx, and SO2 emissions for the entire U.S. power sector. This data is published as part of the public and open-source Open Grid Emissions Initiative, which also includes hourly, consumption-based emissions intensities for every grid balancing area in the country. Using insights generated by this new dataset, this paper also interrogates how several of the assumptions implicit in the use of existing power sector emissions datasets may under-count or misrepresent the climate and health impacts of air emissions from the U.S. power sector. We envision the Initiative becoming a central repository of, and hub of activity for addressing open research questions related to power sector emissions data, and the go-to source for high-quality, high-resolution data for future research on grid emissions.

Drivers of renewable energy penetration and its role in power sector's deep decarbonization towards carbon peak

The power sector is a linchpin of global carbon mitigation goal, and renewables are increasingly the preferred source of new electricity generation globally. It is necessary to uncover the driving mechanism of renewable energy penetration and its impact on deep decarbonization of the power sector. To this end, this research utilizes the production-theoretical decomposition analysis to attribute the change in renewable electricity generation to nine drivers. Then, a system dynamics model is established to track the trajectory of carbon emissions in the power sector under multiple scenario settings of renewable energy penetration. Additionally, cross-country heterogeneity analysis is conducted between China, the USA, the UK, and Germany. The results indicate that: (1) The electricity consumption scale plays a decisive role in driving China's renewable electricity generation during 1995–2018, while electricity productivity and output productivity are the major negative contributors. (2) In the UK, the USA, and Germany, electricity productivity and output productivity act as the main promoters of renewable electricity generation. (3) The decline in China's two productivity effects is primarily attributed to the drop of technical efficiency. However, technology progress in these developed countries contributes to increasing the two productivity indexes. (4) The IRENA roadmap scenario (40%) is not enough to peak carbon emissions in China's power sector before 2030, while 46.3% of renewables in electricity generation is sufficient to achieve this goal. This research provides an insightful roadmap for facilitating renewable energy transition and decarbonizing the power sector.

Transforming Türkiye's power system: An assessment of economic, social, and external impacts of an energy transition by 2030

Türkiye has the long-term goal of transforming its power system to one that is cleaner, more secure and more affordable. According to this paper's scenario analyses, low-cost renewables can supply 55% of Türkiye's total electricity demand. Coupled with the electrification of end-use sectors, energy efficiency can reduce total power demand by 10% compared to a business as usual scenario by 2030. The paper assesses the social, economic, and environmental impacts of this transformation by soft linking a power system model with an applied computable general equilibrium model, using an updated input and output dataset, and employing a novel analysis of job creation and fossil fuel externalities. The power system transformation significantly improves social welfare with net socioeconomic benefits estimated at 1% of GDP by 2030. Positive impacts include a reduction in human health and climate change externalities by a third, which are further enhanced by wage income growth that is driven by higher skilled and better paid jobs. A carbon tax emerges as a critical instrument to realize these benefits whilst reducing the power sector's emissions to 2030. The assessment should be expanded with more ambitious clean energy technology deployment for the entire energy system to operationalize Türkiye's Paris-aligned 2053 net-zero emission target and just transition policies.

EU 탄소국경조정제도(CBAM) 대응전략: 간접배출(발전소) 저감 지원정책을 중심으로

This study examines the current status of carbon emissions in the electric power sector and presents future countermeasures in preparation for the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which will be implemented between 2026 and 2027 after a transition period of 2 to 3 years from January 2025. The EU agreed on details on carbon taxation for products imported from outside the EU through a provisional agreement (Trilogue) in December 2022. The main point of the Trilogue is to impose a carbon tax equal to the difference with the EU-ETS for direct emissions and, if necessary, indirect emissions for six industries. However, since there is a plan to expand the application to all imported products subject to the EU-ETS in the future, research on reducing indirect emissions generated during the electricity production process of power plants is urgently needed. This study presented the current status of carbon emissions in the electric power sector, which is subject to CBAM, and plans for reduction. The author argues that the most fundamental measure to reduce carbon emissions in this study is power generation using non-fossil energy. Therefore, as a measure to increase new renewable energy, which is a non-fossil fuel, the company supplements and expands the Korean FIT, activates the small-scale electricity market, equates K-ETS and EU-ETS, fosters the new renewable energy industry, and Manpower training was suggested.

Enhancing drought resilience and energy security through complementing hydro by offshore wind power—The case of Brazil

During atypical droughts, power systems with a heavy reliance on hydropower risk increased greenhouse gas emissions if they are balanced with fossil-fired generation. This work investigates the role of offshore wind energy in reducing the vulnerability of power systems dependent on such hydrological patterns, thereby eliminating this emission increase, using Brazil as a case study. Offshore wind potential and its complementarity with hydro resources are addressed by considering bias-corrected reanalysis data. Then, a cost-minimizing model is built to analyze the effect of integrating wind farms (considering bottom-fixed and floating structures and distance to shore) into the existing power system in Brazil. Applying a lower, median, and upper bias correction factor, potentials are reduced by 8%–44% compared to uncorrected data. Irrespective of systematic bias, the findings indicate a high complementarity between Northeastern wind regimes and most hydropower basins. The share of offshore wind energy grows in scenarios with reduced costs, but wind farms are part of the optimal system even with the current costs. With increasing wind power capacity, dynamic dispatch changes, and natural gas no longer plays a role in the dry season as it currently does, but only in the rainy season on a significantly reduced scale. Existing reservoirs support the integration of offshore wind farms into highly renewable scenarios, but they are insufficient in a complete fossil fuel phaseout, where other electricity storage must be deployed to help balance the system. Yet, power systems in the scenarios with large wind capacity have less stored hydropower in the dry season than in the current system, while they store more in the rainy season, implying a reduced risk of empty reservoirs. The Brazilian power system with offshore wind farms can eliminate 54.4 Mton CO2eq/year (97% of current power sector emissions) without additional electricity storage.

Exploration of CO2 emission reduction pathways: identification of influencing factors of CO2 emission and CO2 emission reduction potential of power industry.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-022-02456-1.

Feasibility analysis of achieving net-zero emissions in China's power sector before 2050 based on ideal available pathways

The decarbonization of the power sector is crucial for achieving the dual‑carbon target in China. Several low-carbon transition pathways have already been proposed. This study develops the CAS-power bottom-up model and a scenario matrix to examine the feasibility of achieving a net-zero emissions power sector before 2050 in China's power sector. Then explore available strategies mix and the corresponding cost changes in different carbon neutrality years. Additionally, the method in this study can be applied to calculate carbon neutrality year and related transition costs. The results show that, first, China's power sector can successfully achieve carbon neutrality before 2050 and 2045 at the earliest. Second, net-zero emissions need to utilize a flexible combination of various mitigation strategies. Among mitigation strategies, renewable energy is indispensable and vital in contributing to a net-zero emission power system. Enhancing the implementation of clean nuclear energy is better than CCS to advance net-zero emissions time when renewable energy strategy is utilized on a large-scale basis, especially in deeply decarbonization situations. Third, the earlier net-zero emissions are achieved, the higher the total cost will be. Last, under the same neutrality year, the total cost will be the highest if carbon capture and storage (CCS) is massively utilized, and renewable energy and storage-related costs account for the majority during the low-carbon transition process. This study suggests that a flexible and rational mix of policies is essential to achieve decarbonization in the power sector and policymakers should constantly adjust incentive options to adapt to changes in mitigation strategies at different stages.