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Abstract
Coal power sector plays a significant role in achieving carbon peaking in China. Due to the regional heterogeneity of socioeconomic level, peaking carbon emissions in coal power sector depends on the performances of China's provinces. This study aims to dynamically simulate the coal power demand and subsequent CO2 emissions in China's 29 provinces during 2020–2035, and evaluate CO2-related health co-benefits in life and economic loss. It is quantitatively found that the total coal power demand kept rising by 5.19% per year during 2009–2019. And the projection demand would still increase, ranging from 4687.26 ± 357.15 to 8897.13 ± 326.28 billion kW·h at the baseline. CO2 emissions under the rapid development scenario are less than in the other two scenarios, valuing 76.96 billion tons during the projection period. Results of spatial heterogeneity show that East China contributes to the most significant CO2 emissions, valuing 149.47, 156.11, and 190.21 mg/m3 of CO2 concentrations for 2020–2025, 2026–2030, and 2031–2035. Further, life and economic losses of CO2-related health impacts suggest significant health co-benefits of emission reduction. Our findings could provide a deeper understanding of potential peaking paths in coal power sector by provinces and assist policymakers in better establishing emissions reduction targets from a top-down perspective.
Published Version
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