Power Investment Projects Research Articles

Discount Rate of China’s New Energy Power Industry

Under the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution, China’s new energy power industry has become a focal point for environmental management and requires greater investment. In this context, as a significant input of investment projects, discount rate requires a well-calibrated evaluation because new energy power investment projects are highly capital intensive. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the discount rate of China’s new energy power industry. First, we use Moving Average to correct the parameters of capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital, which extends the literature on the avoidance of CAPM noise information problem. Second, we study the industry-level annual discount rates of mainly China’s new energy power industries, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power industries for the period of 2014–2019. The results show that discount rates in China’s new energy power industries evolved differently between the years of 2014–2019 with average annual discount rates being 7.56%, 5.83%, 5.60%, and 8.64%, for the hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power industries, respectively. In 2019, the four annual discount rates were highest for the photovoltaic power industry (8.66%), followed by hydropower (7.17%), wind power (5.72%), and nuclear power industry (5.26%). Forecasting to 2020 from the 2019 evaluation base period, the discount rates are 6.37%, 5.00%, 6.57%, and 9.05% for the photovoltaic power, hydropower, wind power, and nuclear power industries, respectively. Under the different capital structures, their forecasts for the photovoltaic power, hydropower, wind power, and nuclear power industries in 2020 are, respectively, within [4.35%, 9.24%], [3.92%, 7.10%], [4.58%, 10.40%], [5.46%, 14.81%]. We also discussed more details on capital structure and forecast period of discount rates for China’s new energy power industries. Our analysis shows that it is necessary to establish a new energy power industry database and steadily promote the implementation of policies.

Research on Financing of Green Bonds Issued by Power Industry

The power industry in China is accelerating the pace of transition to green and low-carbon industry. Among the many factors restricting its green transformation, funding constraints are particularly prominent. On the one hand, the financing channels are too single for the reasons that the construction of power projects has long been relied on the government grants and bank loans. On the other hand, the term of power investment project is too long while the term of borrowings is too short, leading to the term mismatch. Green bonds have the characteristics of long maturity, low cost and quick review, which can alleviate the difficulties in the financing of the power industry. Therefore, it can be a good choice for power companies to use green bonds as an innovative financing tool to ease funding pressure. This paper takes the largest green energy company in China, Three Gorges Group, as an example, analyzing the financing behavior of issuing green bonds in the aspects of issue motivation and benefits. Based on the case, the paper draws conclusions that green bonds financing can be a proper use of green policies and it has obvious financing cost advantages. Finally, this paper contributes suggestions from the perspective of investors, enterprises and government to promote the healthy development of green bonds.

Research on economic risk early-warning of China's overseas investment of coal-fired power generation: Take Indonesia as an example

Indonesia is currently the country with the largest amount of overseas investment in China's coal-fired power, but it turns out a high frequency for the economic risks. To help Chinese coal-fired power enterprises avoid the economic risks, this article comprehensively evaluates it of the coal-fired power projects in different regions of Indonesia during 2019-2022. The findings indicated that there will still be some profit margins in the Indonesian coal power market during 2019-2022 but with the increase of coal power investment projects, the development space will be gradually shrinking until the saturation of coal power construction appears. Besides, the coal price, which is expected to continue to rise, is likely to become a core indicator of the entire coal-fired power sector. The attractiveness of coal power investment in Java-Bali and Kalimantan is insufficient. There are still some investment risks in Sumatra. Sulawesi and Maluku-Papua show the potential investment space.

Research on Investment Efficiency Evaluation of Wind Power Projects under Supply-side Reform

In recent years, China’s wind power has developed rapidly, with increasing installed capacity, and it is gradually entering a stage of large-scale development, which has broad potential for future development. However, China’s wind power investment projects have low investment efficiency, which is not conducive to the healthy development of the wind power industry. Therefore, improving the overall investment efficiency of wind power projects is an inevitable direction for the development of wind power companies in the future. This paper first takes wind power projects as research objects, combines the characteristics of wind power projects, and constructs a suitable comprehensive investment efficiency evaluation model based on DEA theory. Then it conducts an empirical analysis based on the development status of power enterprises in Xinjiang of China, and combines the evaluation conclusions to promote wind suggestions on the development of investment efficiency in power generation projects.

Study on Risk Assessment of Inland Nuclear Power Investment Construction Projects by Kazakhstan

This article is the first attempt to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of Kazakhstan’s inland nuclear power investment construction projects. Based on the summary of existing research results of scholars at home and abroad, a systematic analysis of the sustainable development model is made from the following four aspects to conduct safety evaluation research on domestic nuclear power construction in Kazakhstan: 1) Probabilistic safety evaluation for Kazakhstan’s inland nuclear power construction; 2) Public perceived risk evaluation for nuclear power construction in Kazakhstan; 3) Economic evaluation for recirculating systems of spent fuel; 4) Benefit risk evaluation for Kazakhstan’s inland nuclear power construction. Based on China’s multi-criteria decision analysis of dynamic system modeling, we add noise to the uncertain factors of the safety evaluation of Kazakhstan nuclear power investment projects and then perform noise reduction to refine our evaluation results. First of all, due to the non-convex optimization of tensor decomposition, there is no guarantee that the factorization will be determined by optimization. In addition, tensor decomposition can converge to different local optimal values corresponding to different initial values of the two tensors. Therefore, if the initialization value is set correctly, the result will be approximately optimal compared to the case where the initial value is far from the global optimal value.

Public Safety Risk Assessment of Power Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Set and DS Evidence Theory

In recent years, the international situation has become more and more complex, and the regional conflicts have been escalating, and the risks of overseas public security have been increasing. Based on the four types of public security events, a public safety risk assessment index system of "one belt and one road" electric power investment project is established. Combining the Bayesian network model, and using fuzzy set and DS evidence theory, the public security risk level of the “Belt and Road” countries can be this method has been effectively verified and put forward countermeasures by an example.

Environmental Stress Testing for China’s Overseas Coal Power Investment Project

The advance of the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative encourages increased overseas investment in coal power projects. However, it also brings about external environmental risks. In this paper, we use the approach of environmental stress testing to examine China’s overseas coal power investment projects by focusing on two countries: Indonesia and Vietnam. We first identify five key testing factors (i.e., coal price, utilization hours, exchange rate, carbon tax, and environmental protection requirements) by examining the market regulation and the environmental risks of coal power projects along the “Belt and Road” countries. Then, we observed changes in the enterprise value and internal rate of return (IRR) by setting different scenarios in which the values of the five stress factors varied. The results show that (1) the economics of coal-fired projects in Indonesia is most sensitive to exchange rate, while the economics of coal projects in Vietnam is most sensitive to coal price; (2) the pressure of nationally determined contributions (NDC) goals on environmental protection will push the “Belt and Road” countries to implement more stringent environmental regulation, which will reinforce environmental stress on overseas coal power investment. These results have important policy implications for the enterprise, industry, and Chinese government.

AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the safety risk in power investment project along “the Belt and Road”

Energy is the focal point of “the belt and Road” investment cooperation. Because of the uncertainty factors, the safety risk of investment and construction is high, so the management and control of project is very difficult. Taking the 50M wind farm project in a South Asian country as an example, this paper constructs a safety risk assessment index system including 14 basic factors through the identification of the safety factors of “the belt and road” power investment project, and analyzes it by using the AHPfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the final safety risk evaluation score of a power investment project in a South Asian country belongs to the “medium risk” range. Geopolitical risk, national sovereignty risk, local legal risk and local natural environment risk are the main indicators, whose risk grade is relatively high. Finally, the paper puts forward the effective risk countermeasures and suggestions.

The Research of Data Mining in Grid Life Cycle Cost Control

In the background of the gradual improvement of the information technology and the socialist market economic system in, the entire life cycle cost management has replaced the entire process project cost management, therefore, high power investment projects such as grid construction, should strengthen project cost management, to adapt to the new era development requirements. The paper, from the perspective of data mining, analyzed and assessed the grid entire life cycle cost, and put forward reasonable proposals for cost control.

The Research of Data Mining in Grid Life Cycle Cost Control

In the background of the gradual improvement of the information technology and the socialist market economic system in, the entire life cycle cost management has replaced the entire process project cost management, therefore, high power investment projects such as grid construction, should strengthen project cost management, to adapt to the new era development requirements. The paper , from the perspective of data mining, analyzed and assessed the grid entire life cycle cost, and put forward reasonable proposals for cost control.

Retraction Notice: Risk Assessment of Wind Power Investment Project Based on Matter- Element Extension Model

The prospect of China's wind power industry is bright, but from the angle of investment, investment amount, operation and maintenance costs of wind power project are relatively high, at the same time, it is facing high policy risk and environment risk. Therefore, we should consider all kinds of risk factors to make appropriate risk management and control plan. Based on this, the paper analyzes the risk factors including risk of planning and construction, risk of finance and market, risk of management and operation, risk of environment and resources. And an assessment index system is obtained which can be applied to evaluate the risk level. Furthermore, the model of Matter-Element Extension is applied to quantify the risk of the project. Integrating the methods of the qualitative and quantification analysis, then it proposes a reasonable assessment about the risk factors of the project of wind power. Finally, it proves the methods and the model through the case of the project of wind Power. The results could help us improve the level of the management of the project of wind power, and bring down the risk of the project. With the enhanced awareness of environmental protection and development of energy saving and emissions reduction, more and more people pay attention to the development of new energy. Compared with other new energy, wind energy, with relatively mature technology development, flexible investment, rich resources, has the good economic efficiency and social benefits, and is getting the support of numerous national and local governments. Thus wind power development becomes the focus of investment project developers. But we must also be clearly aware that China is still in the early stage of development of wind power, there is still a big gap between China and the developed countries. In the process of construction and operation, we will encounter a lot of risks, making it necessary to seek the countermeasures which can improve the project to obtain maximum social and economic benefits from the angle of risk analysis and control.

Risk Assessment of Wind Power Investment Project Based on Matter- Element Extension Model

The prospect of China’s wind power industry is bright, but from the angle of investment, investment amount, operation and maintenance costs of wind power project are relatively high, at the same time, it is facing high policy risk and environment risk. Therefore, we should consider all kinds of risk factors to make appropriate risk management and control plan. Based on this, the paper analyzes the risk factors including risk of planning and construction, risk of finance and market, risk of management and operation, risk of environment and resources. And an assessment index system is obtained which can be applied to evaluate the risk level. Furthermore, the model of Matter-Element Extension is applied to quantify the risk of the project. Integrating the methods of the qualitative and quantification analysis, then it proposes a reasonable assessment about the risk factors of the project of wind power. Finally, it proves the methods and the model through the case of the project of wind Power. The results could help us improve the level of the management of the project of wind power, and bring down the risk of the project.