Power In Central Asia Research Articles

Risks on the Belt and Road in Eurasia: Local Perspectives and Options

ABSTRACT A binary, geopolitical narrative of a new “Great Game” for power in Central Asia may be too simplistic. It remains unclear what regionalisation trends will become embedded in Central Asia, with the apparent rise of China. The paper examines potential for China's Belt and Road Initiative to build new Eurasian economic interdependence through connectivity infrastructure and to reduce dependency for some actors on Russia. A political risk and grounded theory approach is taken, utilising in-depth interviews with local experts and stakeholders to develop a risk/opportunity framework. Conclusions from the research indicate China is unlikely in the foreseeable future to replace Russia as regional hegemon, but is likely to drive greater economic integration. Empirical investigation of dynamics on the ground - including the spectrum of options available to actors - is recommended for realist understanding of economic and other international connectivity trends across Central Asia.

Navigating the Aftermath: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan Following Troop Withdrawal

The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in the middle of 2021 has put at stake and turned to shock the world community. The world, which was fighting COVID-19, faced more concerns about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. It became not only a concern of Middle East countries, but it raised questions in Europe too. While the Middle East countries were anxious about security issues in the region, Europe was anxious about the mass migration of refugees. Russia, the country which is crucially interested in stable peace in the Middle East, and China, which is cooperating with Afghanistan in the economic sector, began negotiations with the Taliban government to stabilize the situation peacefully after the withdrawal of American troops.The article analyzes the changes in US policy in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of troops in August 2021. The withdrawal of the US military contingent from Afghanistan has changed the balance of power in Central Asia, which, on the one hand, creates new risks to international security, and on the other hand, opens up new opportunities for interested players in the international arena in the region. In the new conditions, the United States is forced to restructure its policy towards Afghanistan and change its security strategy in accordance with the new balance of forces in the region. The findings of the study relate to the actual interests of the United States in the field of security in Afghanistan and in the Central Asian region as a whole.

Military intervention as a spectacle? Authoritarian regionalism and protests in Kazakhstan

Abstract Understanding the scope and the limits of cooperation of authoritarian regimes is important to assess their ability to support each other and strengthen authoritarian rule worldwide. While there is substantial evidence of authoritarian regimes working together to ensure mutual stability, autocracies are also notoriously mistrustful of one another. Therefore, they prefer to limit the assistance from other autocracies to rhetoric, to avoid the emergence of excessive dependencies. The conditions under which authoritarian cooperation goes beyond rhetoric, and even takes such extreme forms as military interventions, are insufficiently studied. The article investigates the case of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) intervention in Kazakhstan in 2022 as an example of an authoritarian regional organization sending a military mission to one of its member states. Using process tracing and carefully investigating the available evidence on the role of CSTO forces in Kazakhstan, we show that their intervention was more of symbolic importance than having an actual military role, and precisely for that reason it was acceptable to the leadership of Kazakhstan and other CSTO countries. The balance of power in central Asia (and in particular the role of China) ensured the credibility of commitment of the CSTO to keep its mission a symbolic one.

Japan’s Normative Power in Central Asia: Norms, Development Cooperation, and the Long-lasting Partnership

The purposes of this research are threefold. First, it revisits the “normative powers in Central Asia” debate, which largely ignores an important stalwart supporter of the rule-based international order—Japan. The traditional exclusion of Japan often appears to be related to the belief that Japan plays second (if not third) fiddle at best and has limited power to influence developments in the region. While this thinking for the most part continues to organize much that is written about Japan–Central Asia relations, this article asserts that Japanese normative power should be taken more seriously than many studies understand. Second, using a combination of document analysis (in Japanese, Kazakh, Russian and English) and key stakeholder interviews, it examines how Japan socializes Kazakhstan into a set of norms of appropriate behavior in the field of foreign aid. Finally, highlighting that Kazakhstan embraces a hybrid identity as an official development assistance provider, this study asserts that Japan’s ODA has become a key reference model for Kazakhstan.

Soft power in central Asia: the politics of influence and seduction

Soft power in central Asia: the politics of influence and seduction

The Role of the “Bukhara Question” in the Conclusion of the Soviet-Afghan “Treaty of Friendship” of 1921

During the negotiation of the first Soviet-Afghan “Treaty of Friendship”, a fierce rivalry arose between the parties over control of the Emirate of Bukhara. The former protectorate of the Russian Empire played an important role in the Bolsheviks' plans to export revolution to Central and South Asia, making it impossible for them to allow Afghan control of Bukhara. In turn, the Afghan government attempted to use diplomatic negotiations with Moscow to preserve the independence of Khiva and Bukhara. The “Bukhara Question” was of particular importance to the Afghan Emir, Amanullah Khan, who sought to transform the country into a “regional power” at the helm of a confederation of Central Asian states. Declassified records kept in Russian archives reveal that Amanullah Khan was seeking major concessions from Soviet diplomats on all issues relating to Bukhara to create “Greater Afghanistan”. At first, the Afghan Emir sought Soviet Russia's consent to divide the Emirate of Bukhara into spheres of influence, the transfer of the Russian fortresses of Termez and Kerki to Afghanistan, special rights over the Bukhara section of the Central Asian railway, and freedom of trade. When the Afghans became convinced of the weakness of Soviet power in Central Asia, they set out to establish an Afghan protectorate over Bukhara. At the same time, the Afghan diplomats were sober about the international situation and recognised that their claims had limits and should not derail the conclusion of a favourable treaty with the RSFSR. For this reason, Amanullah Khan accepted, with some difficulty, the “Bukhara Revolution” of 1920, orchestrated by the Bolsheviks, and then agreed to ratify the Soviet-Afghan “Treaty of Friendship”, signed in Moscow on 28 February 1921.

The Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border War

In September 2022, the Tajik army attacked places along a broad front in southwestern Kyrgyzstan. It was the largest attack in the conflict over the Tajik exclave of Vorukh, in the Batken region. This conflict has been waged by violent means on again, off again for over a decade. Tajikistan sees the Vorukh basin, which is surrounded by high mountains and is known for its fruit farming, not as an exclave, but as an integral part of its national territory. However, the narrow strip separating Vorukh from Tajikistan is Kyrgyzstan’s only link to the city of Isfana and the Sülüktü coalfield in the western part of the country. With increasing motorisation, this corridor has become more and more important. The conflict is mainly driven by the rapid growth of the population in the densely settled Tajik part of the Fergana Valley, which is close to the exclave. Tajikistan is choosing a path of violence against the backdrop of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which is further weakening Moscow’s already battered position of power in Central Asia.

Migration and Soft Power

This article explores how Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia view their host country’s government and its influence in Kyrgyzstan, including through the Eurasian Economic Union. Results suggest that migrants have nuanced, pragmatic pro-Russian views. They understand Kyrgyzstan’s dependency on Russia and admire the efficiency of Russia’s government. Yet, they also disapprove of its high levels of corruption and of its disregard for individual rights. Our work contributes to the literature on the diffusion of norms through migration; it also sheds light on Russia’s soft power in Central Asia at a time when rivalry with China is growing in the region.

Theorizing the Nature of Power in Central Asia. Introduction to the Special Issue

The concept of power is key in social and political theory: it explains the ways in which processes and realities occur and makes it possible to theorize about the nature of governance, action, res...

Evolutionary investment network and the emerging energy power in Central Asia: From the perspective of cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Central Asia is emerging as an important pole of global economic and political power, thanks to its unique location at the heart of Eurasia and its abundance in energy reserves. This study explores the social power change in Central Asia from the perspective of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by using the social network method. The main results are as follows: (1) The complexity of the energy M&A network has significantly decreased after the financial crisis in 2008. In the meantime, energy M&A became an important way to enhance energy power for buyer countries. Betweenness centrality is becoming the most significant factor affecting energy power, yet the effect of out-degree is weakening. (2) The community underwent multifaceted restructuring, which reflected the shift of energy power in Central Asia. Kazakhstan is the most powerful country in the energy sector in Central Asia. In addition, East Asian countries/regions, represented by China, are actively enhancing their energy power. (3) Different M&A modes reflect various M&A motivations of countries in the energy sector. In the future, more efforts should be made to promote the establishment of a pragmatic and efficient multilateral energy cooperation mechanism and strength the cooperation of the economy and energy finance when China participates in the energy market in Central Asia.

The Pervasive Nature of Power in Central Asia

ABSTRACT In International Relations, “Central Asia” and “power” are often linked to either Great Power politics or authoritarianism. Yet, as “power” is a multifaceted component of social life, this paper suggests a comprehensive framework to analyze its different understandings and operations in the region. By adopting the typology of Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall, the paper has three aims. First, to review the recent literature on power and Central Asia showing that “power” is a pervasive but undertheorized concept. Second, to broaden the understanding of “power” in the region. Third, to encourage reflexivity when it comes to power analysis.

Domination and Togetherness: Conceptions of Power in Central Asia’s International Politics

ABSTRACT Central Asian (international) politics has traditionally been understood as if domination were the core aim of local actors, and that they apply any sort of means (such as obtaining rent or coercion) to achieve that end. The persistence of that conception subsequently reproduces the “spirit” of the New Great Game. By spirit, I mean a way of interpreting regional events that rests on practices akin to a Great Game—such as competition and a struggle for power—without fully subscribing to the analogy. The essay then assesses a distinctive and increasingly important way of understanding Central Asian politics based on a conception of power as “togetherness.” As a result, the article stresses the need for a joint application of the two versions of power.

Support for nuclear power in Central Asia: examining historical and spatial separation

ABSTRACT The countries of Central Asia have a perilous nuclear legacy inherited from the Soviet Union. Using survey data from Aktau and Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, a generalised ordered logit model is used to analyse relationships between people’s attitudes, location, and demographic characteristics and their support towards construction of NPPs. Results suggest there is complex association between historical proximity and support for NPPs. Furthermore, the general public can be separated into two groups: (1) those who oppose nuclear power and (2) those that have become complacent towards future risks. Perceived risk to human safety, radiation, and environmental damage are found to be associated with higher levels of opposition to the building of an NPP, whereas importance of job creation is found to be associated with higher levels of support for an NPP. These results are important as they indicate a need to promote public engagement prior to constructing an NPP.

The united states and central Asia: Significant aspects of relations and interests

This article is dedicated to coverage of current state of relations between the US and Central Asia. Central Asia as a favorable geostrategic region has always attracted leading countries. The United States also has a particular interest in this important transit zone. As the US is one of the countries defining the world order, there is no region where its interests do not exist. The United States always has a peculiar approach for important geostrategic regions. The United States regularly claims that the US was one of the first state that to recognize the independence of Central Asian states and has helped these countries to build up their sovereignty. An addition to this, the fact that Afghanistan is also directly adjacent to the region shows how important the US influence in the region is. It is obviously seen that the US-supported projects such as Greater Central Asia and The New Silk Road initiative are aimed to affiliate Afghanistan with Central Asia. It is also crucial for the United States to have its influence in Central Asia to lessen Russia`s dominance in the region and to form a barrier to China`s heavy inflows. Furthermore, the richness of its natural resources and the large hydrocarbon reserves of the world in this region, increase the significance of Central Asia for the United States. It can be interpreted that the name of the US has always been encountered in the strategically influential areas. It is also vital for the Central Asian countries to have the US in the region. The region which is mainly made up of developing countries needs a vigorous investor like the United States. Precisely, one of the most essential view is that the presence of the US in the region can help to keep the balance power in Central Asia. Clearly, there is a commonality of interests in the relations between the US and CA.

Confucian Influence: The Place of Soft Power in China’s Strategy Towards Central Asia

China has traditionally had close relations with Central Asia for quite a long time. The main reasons for this are probably their social, cultural, and demographic bonds, as well as geographical proximity, providing China with a different status in Central Asia from those of the other regions in the world. These bonds have also been strengthened by the ancient Silk Road, beginning in China and passing through Central Asia and Iran towards Europe. Cultural relations, in general, and China’s attempt to expand its means of soft power in the region, in particular, have been a significant aspect of the ties between China and the Central Asian countries. It has drawn attention, especially over the recent decade, and has manifested in various forms. By focussing on the dimension of relations between China and the Central Asian countries, this article addresses the question of what does China try to achieve by expanding its soft power in Central Asia? The article argues that China has focussed on the expansion of its soft power and the consolidation of cultural ties with the Central Asian countries to expand its influence in the region and, eventually, to rise as a new centre of power in the international system. Following a conceptual discussion on the definition of soft power, the article analyses the status of soft power in China’s foreign policy and then, the representations of China’s soft power in Central Asia. Finally, the essay discusses the effects of the soft power factor on the expansion of Chinese influence in the region.

Centred discourse, decentred practice: the relational production of Russian and Chinese ‘rising’ power in Central Asia

This paper challenges dominant understandings of ‘rising powers’ by developing a decentred, relational account of Russia and China in Central Asia. We ask whether Moscow and Beijing’s regional integrative strategies do not guide, but rather are led by, everyday interactions among Russian and Chinese actors, and local actors in Central Asia. Rising powers, as a derivative of ‘Great Powers’, are frequently portrayed as structurally comparable units that concentrate power in their executives, fetishise territorial sovereignty, recruit client states, contest regional hegemony and explicitly oppose the post-1945 international order. In contrast, we demonstrate that the centred discourse of Eurasian integration promoted by Russian and Chinese leaders is decentred by networks of business and political elites, especially with regard to capital accumulation. Adopting Homi K. Bhabha’s notion of mimicry (subversion, hybridity) and J. C. Scott’s conception of mētis (local knowledge, agency), and using examples of Russian and Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in Central Asia, we argue that in order to understand centring discourse we must look to decentring practices at the periphery; that is, rising power is produced through ongoing interactions between actors at the margins of the state’s hegemonic reach.

Национально-территориальное размежевание в Средней Азии в 1924 г.: причины и влияние на этнополитические процессы в регионе

Национальная политика большевиков в 1920-е гг. отличалась высокой степенью конъюнктурности, подчинения ее принципов задачам строительства советской власти. В условиях Гражданской войны и борьбы за власть создание национальных территорий в форме советских автономных республик и районов в составе РСФСР, наряду с поддержкой национальных языков, политических элит и культуры, рассматривалось руководством РКП(б) как действенный политический механизм решения задач укрепления советской власти в национальных районах. Однако провозглашение Туркестанской АССР в мае 1918 г. не привело к нейтрализации национального вопроса в регионе, на что рассчитывали большевики. Политические мотивы укрепления советской власти в Средней Азии в совокупности с низким уровнем национального самосознания и политической активности коренного населения позволили Москве провести новый этап национального размежевания. Национально-территориальное размежевание в Средней Азии в 1924 г. — пример перекодирования процесса национального самоопределения и последующего оформления национального самосознания с тюркского национального проекта, воспринимавшегося как угроза советской власти, на существующие в регионе иные уровни национальной идентичности.

The Soviet Union as a ‘Feminist Colonialist?’ The Women’s Question in Early Soviet Central Asia

The Soviet Union as a colonial power in Central Asia decided to step up against the perceived traditional marginalisation of women. It intended to create an equal society for men and women, and treated women as important allies in the modernisation and the restructuration of traditional societies. However, in reality, while the Soviet initiatives contributed to the emancipation and empowerment of women on the surface, in the meantime they also served as a significant tool for the colonisation of Central Asia. The aim of the article is to shed light on this almost entirely overlooked process of the Soviet colonial power using the ideas of Marxist feminism to strengthen its power over the region, and to argue that this approach had contributed to the fact that the attempts of the Soviet Union aimed at the emancipation and empowerment of Central Asian women could only reach their declared objectives on the surface

NATO vs. SCO: A Comparative Study of Outside Powers’ Military Presence in Central Asia and the Gulf

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) both have geopolitical interests in Central Asia and the Gulf. The former is a military alliance, whose members have built substantial presence in the Greater Middle East, including the US military presence in Afghanistan, Djibouti, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman; the British military presence in Afghanistan and Bahrain; the French military presence in Afghanistan, Djibouti and the UAE. In comparison, SCO is a political bloc, whose members are at a low level of military integration. Like Russia’s military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, China has logistics base in Djibouti; India has military presence in Tajikistan. The three SCO members enjoy better geographical proximality, while the three NATO members are stronger in military deployments and power projection capabilities. The SCO major powers have consolidated their respective land power in Central Asia, while NATO members have obtained both land power in Afghanistan and marine power in the Gulf. While the SCO’s and NATO’s respective military positions have been strengthened, Central Asia and the Gulf are faced with serious economic, political and social problems and inter-state conflict. In the light of this, the military presence of outside NATO and SCO powers may rest on a weak foundation and may face various hurdles in the future.

Analysis of the Impact of Russia’s Sovereign Democracy Model on Central Asian States

Russia appeared to be a country that did not eschew from resorting to hard power instruments suchas military intervention and economic sanctions in the post-Cold War period. Moscow fought a battleagainst Georgia over South Ossetia in August 2008. It also sent its military personnel to Crimea tocapture strategic points and to take control of the critical infrastructure in February 2014, shortlybefore the referendum which would decide whether the peninsula would merge with Russia. Russiaalso occasionally cut off natural gas supplies to Georgia and Ukraine in the middle of winter when thesetwo pro-Western states failed to pay their accumulated natural gas debt. Yet, Moscow starting from themid-2000s has been taking serious and systematic steps to strengthen and expand its soft power basein its immediate neighbourhood as well. These efforts speeded up in the wake of colour revolutionsin Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan which resulted in the replacement of friendly governments thatpaid special attention to Russian concerns and sensitivities with new leaders and cadres that aimedto bring their countries closer to the West. This article will examine the Central Asian dimension ofRussia’s soft power policy by borrowing the soft power concept of Joseph Nye. Nye defines soft poweras the capacity to have an impact on or shape the preferences of others by relying upon intangibleassets such as political values, international institutions and culture. So, the study will start with theanalysis of the extent of recognition of Russia’s political values, especially its sovereign democracymodel which prioritizes the demands of the state over those of individuals, lays emphasis on theprinciples of independence, sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs in the intercourse withother states and underlines the primacy of traditional and conservative values such as unity, solidarityand family over individualism, feminism and LGBT rights by the Central Asian political elites. Thearticle will then move on to explore the extent of Russia’s success in exporting the main tenets of thesovereign democracy model to Central Asia by examining some of the agreements, declarations,decisions and practices of the international institutions such as the Commonwealth of IndependentStates, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization whichplay significant role in the region. The study will end with the assessment of the cultural aspect of theRussian soft power in Central Asia by investigating the prevalence of Russian language, Russian highereducation institutions, Russian media and Russian mass entertainment in the region.