Power Consumption Forecasting Research Articles

A Novel Deep Learning-Based Data Analysis Model for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation and Electrical Consumption Forecasting in the Smart Power Grid

With the installation of solar panels around the world and the permanent fluctuation of climatic factors, it is, therefore, important to provide the necessary energy in the electrical network in order to satisfy the electrical demand at all times for smart grid applications. This study first presents a comprehensive and comparative review of existing deep learning methods used for smart grid applications such as solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasting and power consumption forecasting. In this work, electrical consumption forecasting is long term and will consider smart meter data and socioeconomic and demographic data. Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is short term by considering climatic data such as solar irradiance, temperature, and humidity. Moreover, we have proposed a novel hybrid deep learning method based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and genetic algorithm (GA). We then simulated all the deep learning methods on a climate and electricity consumption dataset for the city of Douala. Electrical consumption data are collected from smart meters installed at consumers in Douala. Climate data are collected at the climate management center in the city of Douala. The results obtained show the outperformance of the proposed optimized method based on deep learning in the both electrical consumption and PV power generation forecasting and its superiority compared to basic methods of deep learning such as support vector machine (SVM), MLP, recurrent neural network (RNN), and random forest algorithm (RFA).

A Trapezoid Attention Mechanism for Power Generation and Consumption Forecasting

A Trapezoid Attention Mechanism for Power Generation and Consumption Forecasting

Load Balance Forecasting Based on Hybrid Deep Neural Network

Load forecasting is the foundation of utility design, and it is a fundamental business problem in the utility industry. Load forecasting, mainly referring to forecasting electricity demand and energy, is being used throughout all segments of the electric power industry, including generation, transmission, distribution, and retail. In this paper, a long short-term memory network with a hybrid approach is improved with a dense algorithm and proposed for electricity load forecasting. A long short-term memory network is designed to effectively exhibit the dynamic behavior of load time series. The proposed model is tested for Panama study including historical data and weather variables. The prediction accuracy is validated by performance metrics, and the best of the metrics are attained when mean absolute error is 5.262, mean absolute percentage error 0.0000376, and root mean square error 18.243. The experimental results show a high prediction rate for load balance forecasting of electric power consumption.

Power consumption prediction for electric vehicle charging stations and forecasting income

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the future of the automobile industry, as they produce zero emissions and address environmental and health concerns caused by traditional fuel-poared vehicles. As more people shift towards EVs, the demand for power consumption forecasting is increasing to manage the charging stations effectively. Predicting power consumption can help optimize operations, prevent grid overloading, and power outages, and assist companies in estimating the number of charging stations required to meet demand. The paper uses three time series models to predict the electricity demand for charging stations, and the SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model outperforms the ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, with the least RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) scores in forecasting power demand and revenue. The data used for validation consists of charging activities over a four-year period from public charging outlets in Colorado, six months of charging data from ChargeMOD's public charging terminals in Kerala, India. Power usage is also forecasted based on wheels of vehicles, and finally, a plan subscription data from the same source is utilized to anticipate income, that helps companies develop pricing strategies to maximize profits while remaining competitive. Utility firms and charging networks may use accurate power consumption forecasts for a variety of purposes, such as power scheduling and determining the expected energy requirements for charging stations. Ultimately, precise power consumption forecasting can assist in the effective planning and design of EV charging infrastructure. The main aim of this study is to create a good time series model which can estimate the electric vehicle charging stations usage of power and verify if the firm has a good income along with some accuracy measures. The results show that SARIMA model plays a vital role in providing us with accurate information. According to the data and study here, four wheelers use more power than two and three wheelers. Also, DC charging facility uses more electricity than AC charging stations. These results can be used to determine the cost to operate the EVs and its subscriptions.

DBSCAN-based energy users clustering for performance enhancement of deep learning model

Background: Due to rapid progress in the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning, the power grids are transforming into Smart Grids (SG) which are versatile, reliable, intelligent and stable. The power consumption of the energy users is varying throughout the day as well as in different days of the week. Power consumption forecasting is of vital importance for the sustainable management and operation of SG. Methodology: In this work, the aim is to apply clustering for dividing a smart residential community into several group of similar profile energy user, which will be effective for developing and training representative deep neural network (DNN) models for power load forecasting of users in respective groups. The DNN models is composed of convolutional neural network (CNN) followed by LSTM layers for feature extraction and sequence learning respectively. The DNN For experimentation, the Smart Grid Smart City (SGSC) project database is used and its energy users are grouped into various clusters. Results: The residential community is divided into four groups of customers based on the chosen criterion where Group 1, 2, 3 and 4 contains 14 percent, 22 percent, 19 percent and 45 percent users respectively. Almost half of the population (45 percent) of the considered residential community exhibits less than 23 outliers in their electricity consumption patterns. The rest of the population is divided into three groups, where specialized deep learning models developed and trained for respective groups are able to achieve higher forecasting accuracy. The results of our proposed approach will assist researchers and utility companies by requiring fewer specialized deep-learning models for accurate forecasting of users who belong to various groups of similar-profile energy consumption.

Cognitive Modelling and Forecasting of Electricity Consumption

Purpose of reseach. Development of a forecast model of energy consumption and assessment of factors influencing its consumption. The obtained forecast estimates of energy consumption will improve the quality and efficiency of management decisions at all levels of administrative management.Methods. The article presents an analytical review of the existing methods of cognitive modelling and forecasting of electric power consumption, the description of the software implementation of the information-computing system that allows to make a forecast of electric power consumption by the population of the administrative-territorial formation. The approach to the description of factors of electric power consumption by both population and various branches of national economy, as well as organisations engaged in rendering various services has been proposed. Special software has been developed, which allows to obtain model results of electric power consumption in an automated mode, to carry out factor analysis of power consumption. The experimental verification of the work of the programme of cognitive modelling and forecasting of electric power consumption by the population of Lgovsky district of Kursk region is given. The developed software also makes it possible to evaluate the adequacy of the obtained results and promptly adjust the model parameters.Results. As a result of the research a fuzzy cognitive map of energy consumption for a municipal entity was developed. The concepts of the subject area describing the influence of various groups of factors on the level of electric energy consumption were identified. Forecast estimates of electricity consumption were obtained, which were based on the data for the retrospective period. Adequacy indicators based on the calculation of statistical criteria are determined for the obtained estimates.Conclusion. The results of the study have shown that the combination of cognitive and statistical methods allows to achieve an adequate solution when solving the problem of energy consumption forecasting.

A Prediction Model of Power Consumption in Smart City Using Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm

A smart city utilizes vast data collected through electronic methods, such as sensors and cameras, to improve daily life by managing resources and providing services. Moving towards a smart grid is a step in realizing this concept. The proliferation of smart grids and the concomitant progress made in the development of measuring infrastructure have garnered considerable interest in short-term power consumption forecasting. In reality, predicting future power demands has shown to be a crucial factor in preventing energy waste and developing successful power management techniques. In addition, historical time series data on energy consumption may be considered necessary to derive all relevant knowledge and estimate future use. This research paper aims to construct and compare with original deep learning algorithms for forecasting power consumption over time. The proposed model, LSTM-GRU-PPCM, combines the Long -Short-Term -Memory (LSTM) and Gated- Recurrent- Unit (GRU) Prediction Power Consumption Model. Power consumption data will be utilized as the time series dataset, and predictions will be generated using the developed model. This research avoids consumption peaks by using the proposed LSTM-GRU-PPCM neural network to forecast future load demand. In order to conduct a thorough assessment of the method, a series of experiments were carried out using actual power consumption data from various cities in India. The experiment results show that the LSTM-GRU-PPCM model improves the original LSTM forecasting algorithms evaluated by Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for various time series. The proposed model achieved a minimum error prediction of MAE=0.004 and RMSE=0.032, which are excellent values compared to the original LSTM. Significant implications for power quality management and equipment maintenance may be expected from the LSTM-GRU-PPCM approach, as its forecasts will allow for proactive decision-making and lead to load shedding when power consumption exceeds the allowed level

A Prediction Model of Power Consumption in Smart City Using Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm

A smart city utilizes vast data collected through electronic methods, such as sensors and cameras, to improve daily life by managing resources and providing services. Moving towards a smart grid is a step in realizing this concept. The proliferation of smart grids and the concomitant progress made in the development of measuring infrastructure have garnered considerable interest in short-term power consumption forecasting. In reality, predicting future power demands has shown to be a crucial factor in preventing energy waste and developing successful power management techniques. In addition, historical time series data on energy consumption may be considered necessary to derive all relevant knowledge and estimate future use. This research paper aims to construct and compare with original deep learning algorithms for forecasting power consumption over time. The proposed model, LSTM-GRU-PPCM, combines the Long -Short-Term -Memory (LSTM) and Gated- Recurrent- Unit (GRU) Prediction Power Consumption Model. Power consumption data will be utilized as the time series dataset, and predictions will be generated using the developed model. This research avoids consumption peaks by using the proposed LSTM-GRU-PPCM neural network to forecast future load demand. In order to conduct a thorough assessment of the method, a series of experiments were carried out using actual power consumption data from various cities in India. The experiment results show that the LSTM-GRU-PPCM model improves the original LSTM forecasting algorithms evaluated by Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for various time series. The proposed model achieved a minimum error prediction of MAE=0.004 and RMSE=0.032, which are excellent values compared to the original LSTM. Significant implications for power quality management and equipment maintenance may be expected from the LSTM-GRU-PPCM approach, as its forecasts will allow for proactive decision-making and lead to load shedding when power consumption exceeds the allowed level

Multi-Task Learning and Temporal-Fusion-Transformer-Based Forecasting of Building Power Consumption

Improving the accuracy of the forecasting of building power consumption is helpful in reducing commercial expenses and carbon emissions. However, challenges such as the shortage of training data and the absence of efficient models are the main obstacles in this field. To address these issues, this work introduces a model named MTLTFT, combining multi-task learning (MTL) with the temporal fusion transformer (TFT). The MTL approach is utilized to maximize the effectiveness of the limited data by introducing multiple related forecasting tasks. This method enhances the learning process by enabling the model to learn shared representations across different tasks, although the physical number of data remains unchanged. The TFT component, which is optimized for feature learning, is integrated to further improve the model’s performance. Based on a dataset from a large exposition building in Hangzhou, we conducted several forecasting experiments. The results demonstrate that MTLTFT outperforms most baseline methods (such as LSTM, GRU, N-HiTS) in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), suggesting that MTLTFT is a promising approach for the forecasting of building power consumption and other similar tasks.

SAC-ConvLSTM: A novel spatio-temporal deep learning-based approach for a short term power load forecasting

The short-term spatiotemporal load forecasting of power distribution networks has been extensively studied in light of high importance in distribution system control and consumption management. Load forecasting is dependent on temporal and spatial parameters e.g., temperature, rainfall, and land use. Additionally, load time series have spatial autocorrelation in cities. Deep learning has been recently demonstrated to be effective and efficient in time-series and load forecasting in power distribution networks. The present study proposes a new algorithm based on Spatial Auto Correlation and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (SAC-ConvLSTM) algorithm via spatiotemporal power load autocorrelation modeling and deep learning. Load time-series signals in a power distribution network are decomposed into sub-signals using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). Then, the spatio-temporal autocorrelation of sub-signals is calculated, alleviating prediction model complexity using spatial statistics. The areas with significant positive/negative/no significant autocorrelation in each time-series sub-signal are separately used as the input of the SAC-ConvLSTM algorithm. Finally, the sub-signals are reconstructed into the load signals. This algorithm models the spatial relationships in time-series at different time intervals for power consumption forecasting. The proposed methodology was found to outperform the support vector machine (SVM), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (ConvGRU), Planar Flow-Based Variational Auto-Encoder (PFVAE) and Federated Averaging (FedAVG) algorithms in short-term power load forecasting for short term forecasting of up to two weeks, based on the evaluation metrics of root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), producing values of 11.08% and 7.02% respectively.

Deep Learning Model Performance and Optimal Model Study for Hourly Fine Power Consumption Prediction

Electricity consumption has been increasing steadily owing to technological developments since the Industrial Revolution. Technologies that can predict power usage and management for improved efficiency are thus emerging. Detailed energy management requires precise power consumption forecasting. Deep learning technologies have been widely used recently to achieve high performance. Many deep learning technologies are focused on accuracy, but they do not involve detailed time-based usage prediction research. In addition, detailed power prediction models should consider computing power, such as that of end Internet of Things devices and end home AMIs. In this work, we conducted experiments to predict hourly demands for the temporal neural network (TCN) and transformer models, as well as artificial neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit models. The study covered detailed time intervals from 1 to 24 h with 1 h increments. The experimental results were analyzed, and the optimal models for different time intervals and datasets were derived. The LSTM model showed superior performance for datasets with characteristics similar to those of schools, while the TCN model performed better for average or industrial power consumption datasets.

Forecasting of short term electric power consumption for different types buildings using improved transfer learning: A case study of primary school in China

Accurate forecasting of electric power consumption is of great significance to the energy saving operation of buildings. However, in practice, few reliable historical data to be employed to forecast the electric power consumption of a building due to the non-availability of a complete system for monitoring of its energy consumption. In order to accurately predict the electric power consumption of a building with a small-size historical data sample, a model is proposed for forecasting daily electric power consumption using TrAdaBoost- Long short term memory (TAB-LSTM). Some new data is collected from the source building with the maximum mean dispersion (MMD), which is combined with the targeted data of the building to generate a training set. The weight of the training set is updated iteratively by transfer learning (TL) and LSTM to predict the daily electric power consumption. This approach is applied to the energy consumption data of a primary school located in the Northwest China. The experimental results show that the proposed TAB-LSTM approach could reduce the average error to 7.8%, and hence it can be used as an efficient tool for intelligent operation and maintenance of existing buildings.

Day-ahead forecasting of residential electric power consumption for energy management using Long Short-Term Memory encoder–decoder model

Energy management in smart buildings and energy communities needs short-term load demand forecasting for optimization-based scheduling, dispatch, and real-time operation. However, producing accurate forecasting for individual residential households is more challenging compared to the forecasting of load demand at the distribution level, which is smoother and benefits from statistical compensation of errors. This paper presents a day-ahead forecasting technique for individual residential load demand that is based on the Long Short-Term Memory encoder–decoder architecture, which is extended to consider possibly differing sets of past and future exogenous variables. A novel focus is posed on the validation of the proposed approach considering that it is tailored for use by energy management systems. A publicly available dataset was used for validation, and the approach was compared with three other methods, resulting in a reduction of the Mean Absolute Scaled Error by up to 8%.

Data-Driven Insights through Industrial Retrofitting: An Anonymized Dataset with Machine Learning Use Cases

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) often encounter practical challenges and limitations when extracting valuable insights from the data of retrofitted or brownfield equipment. The existing literature fails to reflect the full reality and potential of data-driven analysis in current SME environments. In this paper, we provide an anonymized dataset obtained from two medium-sized companies leveraging a non-invasive and scalable data-collection procedure. The dataset comprises mainly power consumption machine data collected over a period of 7 months and 1 year from two medium-sized companies. Using this dataset, we demonstrate how machine learning (ML) techniques can enable SMEs to extract useful information even in the short term, even from a small variety of data types. We develop several ML models to address various tasks, such as power consumption forecasting, item classification, next machine state prediction, and item production count forecasting. By providing this anonymized dataset and showcasing its application through various ML use cases, our paper aims to provide practical insights for SMEs seeking to leverage ML techniques with their limited data resources. The findings contribute to a better understanding of how ML can be effectively utilized in extracting actionable insights from limited datasets, offering valuable implications for SMEs in practical settings.

Multi‐Step Forecasting for Household Power Consumption

AbstractIt is of great importance to build an accurate model for the multi‐step forecasting of household power consumption. In recent years, more and more researchers have focused on adopting hybrid models to execute forecasting due to the irregularity and nonlinearity of power data. However, existing forecasting models usually make predictions directly on original data. This paper introduces secondary decomposition algorithm used to decompose primal data. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to decompose the original series into several subseries, utilize variational mode decomposition (VMD) optimized by whale optimization algorithm to decompose the subseries with the highest frequency into several intrinsic mode functions . Then all subseries obtained from SSA and VMD are fed into long short‐term memory model to get predictions. In order to confirm the validity of proposed model, this paper performs several experimental analyses. The results of experiments show that the proposed model effectively improves the accuracy of forecasting. © 2023 Institute of Electrical Engineer of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Daily middle-term probabilistic forecasting of power consumption in North-East England

AbstractProbabilistic forecasting of power consumption in a middle-term horizon (few months to a year) is a main challenge in the energy sector. It plays a key role in planning future generation plants and transmission grid. This paper proposes a novel model that (i) incorporates seasonality and autoregressive features in a traditional time-series analysis and (ii) includes weather conditions in a parsimonious machine learning approach, known as Gaussian Process. Applying to a daily power consumption dataset in North East England, provided by one of the largest energy suppliers, we obtain promising results in Out-of-Sample density forecasts up to one year, even using a small dataset, with only a two-year calibration set. For the evaluation of the achieved probabilistic forecasts, we consider the pinball loss—a metric common in the energy sector—and we assess the coverage—a procedure standard in the banking sector after the introduction of Basel II Accords—also running the conditional and unconditional tests for probability intervals. Results show that the proposed model outperforms benchmarks in terms of both accuracy and reliability.

Forecasting future electric power consumption in Busan New Port using a deep learning model

As smart and environmentally friendly technologies and equipment are introduced in the sea port industry, electric power consumption is expected to rapidly increase. However, there is a paucity of research on the creation of electric power management plans, specifically in relation to electric power consumption forecasting, in ports. In order to address this gap, this study forecasts future electric power consumption in Busan New Port (South Korea's largest container port) and, comparing this with the current standard electric power supply capacity, investigated the feasibility of maintaining a stable electric power supply in the future. We applied a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained using electric power consumption and throughput data of the last 10 years to forecast the future electric power consumption of Busan New Port. According to the results, electric power consumption is expected to increase at an annual average of 4.9 % until 2040, exceeding the predicted annual 4.7 % increase in throughput during the same period. Given these results, the current standard electric power supply capacity is forecast to reach only 35 % of demand in 2040, indicating that additional electrical power supply facilities will be needed for stable port operation in the future.

Short-Term Forecasting of Power Consumption of Power Supply Companies Based on the Integration of Technologies of Analytical, Simulation and Expert Systems

Purpose of research is to improve software support and identify regularities in the processes of short-term forecasting of power consumption of power supply companies based on complementary integration of data mining models, system dynamics and expert systems.Methods. The principles of constructing predictive models of power consumption are given. A system analysis has been carried out and an ontological model of the subject area has been built, taking into account the technological and market environment. The classification of forecasting methods has been considered. The features of the information base for short-term forecasting, including data on actual power consumption and weather data, have been described. The requirements for software for making forecasts have been formulated. A block diagram of the system for forecasting power consumption of the market for the day ahead is built based on the complementary integration of data analysis and modeling software.Results. Scenarios for data processing in Loginom have been developed using the Arimax and Neural Network (Regression) processors to build forecasts based on actual power consumption and taking into account meteorological factors. A system dynamics simulation model that allows exploring the influence of meteorological factors (temperature, pressure, precipitation) on power consumption has been developed in Anylogic. Using Wi!Mi mivar constructor of expert systems, the task has been parametrized; indicators, relationships, rules have been set; a logical conclusion of the solution has been obtained.Conclusion. A block diagram of a system for forecasting the market's power consumption for the day ahead has been built. It is based on the analysis of retrospective information on actual power consumption and meteorological factors using data mining methods, system dynamics and expert systems applying Russian Loginom, Anylogic and Wi!Mi software tools.

Power Consumption Forecasting by Hybrid Deep Architectures with Data Fusion

Many of the deep learning solutions for time-series forecasting reported in the literature include complex neural networks that may not be directly employed by the practitioner in the field. In this study, we demonstrate how the standard deep neural network types, convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network can be applied in the field of time-series forecasting. This study consists of two parts. The first part is to compare CNN and LSTM models with classical methods like Random Forest (RF) and ARIMA for the univariate electric power consumption task. The second part is to use the best performing model from the first part in the hybrid model and perform data fusion with the newly built hybrid model for the electric power consumption forecasting task. CNN and LSTM models outperform traditional methods when their performances are evaluated on the univariate electric power consumption data of Illinois, USA. We also illustrate the use of hybrid deep learning models composed of standard CNN and LSTM for data fusion with the aim of time-series forecasting. When the hybrid models are applied to the fused data of the electric power consumption data and the multivariate weather data of Illinois, USA, the forecasting performance is improved compared to that when only univariate data is used.

Building public market opinion indices for electricity consumption prediction of Chinese nonferrous metal industry

Nonferrous metal is an essential natural resource for national economy and industry production. Understanding the supply, demand and price trend of nonferrous metal market is important to economic prosperity analysis and might contribute to electricity power consumption forecast. This research builds related market opinion indices to understand the supply, demand, and price changes in nonferrous metal market. We propose a self-learning graph neural network model-based sentiment index network method for value mining of sentiment-related features, addressing the issue of sentiment loss caused by discontinuities in domain-specific news. Based on the structured indicators and the integration of Internet sentiment indices, we establish two single-item models: Granger Causality-based ARDL Model (G-ARDL) and the Factor Analysis-based Transformer Model (F-Transformer). Finally, we construct a Bagging random sampling integration prediction framework to obtain the weight coefficients for single model predictions. We merge the prediction results in different single models with weighted fusion, resulting in smaller prediction errors compared to single models and equal-weight integration models.