Potential Vorticity Streamer Research Articles

A high‐resolution climatological study of explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean region: Frequency, intensity and synoptic drivers

AbstractIn the complex context of climate change and in a heavily populated area like the Mediterranean region, understanding and studying explosive cyclones (ECs) is crucial because of their potential to cause extreme weather events, including strong winds, heavy rainfall, and significant disruptions to human activities and infrastructure, as happened in 2018 with the Vaia storm. The genesis and persistence of ECs, characterized by a rapid drop in central mean sea level pressure exceeding 12 hPa in 12 hours, are influenced by various physical processes and while water vapour convergence in the mid‐low troposphere is crucial, mid‐upper tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection and upper tropospheric divergence also play significant roles. In this study, we used ERA5 hourly data of mean sea level pressure from 1979 to 2020 to analyse EC occurrences in the Mediterranean. The identification of EC events followed the 12‐hr deepening‐rate criterion introduced by Zhang et al. (2017), as shorter deepening rates definitions proved unreliable. A total of 80 ECs were identified and classified based on their spatial occurrence and magnitude, 34 of which were concentrated in the northwest of the basin, likely due to orographic deformation caused by the Alps on baroclinic waves originating from the Atlantic. The study also identified recurring synoptic patterns associated with the persistence of ECs over the sea, including the presence of potential vorticity (PV) streamers and mid‐tropospheric dry‐air intrusions. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis highlighted the Scandinavian pattern as the primary driver, with blocking conditions over western Russia and Scandinavia, and composite analyses revealed the intrusion of PV to various atmospheric levels, extending up to 500 hPa. In summary, this study offers valuable insights into the complex mechanisms governing EC formation in the Mediterranean Basin, shedding light on the synoptic patterns, atmospheric dynamics, and potential impacts on regional weather systems.

Surface temperature modulations induced by Rossby Wave Breaking over Indian region

Abstract Upper-level Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB) significantly affects surface weather patterns in the subtropical Indian region through influencing wind circulation often resulting in extremes in rainfall and surface temperatures. While the impact of RWB on rainfall is relatively well understood, its role in modulating surface temperatures within the Indian subcontinent is less explored. This study examines the link between pre-monsoon (March to May) RWB events and the occurrence of extreme surface temperatures and heatwaves by considering long-term data of 43 years between 1979 and 2021. We identify 139 RWB events using a potential vorticity (PV) contour searching algorithm over the Indian sub-continent. Our analysis reveals a significant amplification in temperature both to the west and east of the breaking PV streamers. These temperature anomalies, which last for 3–4 days during the breaking events, strongly correlate with the maximum day of breaking. Further, regression analyses explain the reasons behind the temperature enhancement mainly on the western and eastern flank of RWB. It indicates a positive association between upper-level PV anomalies and anticyclonic circulations at 250 hPa, along with subsidence at 500 hPa, leading to drier conditions in the western and eastern regions of the PV streamers. Additionally, the decomposition of temperature anomalies during RWB events reveals that surface warming is primarily driven by diabatic heating on both sides of the centroid, with stronger adiabatic heating in regions of upper-level anticyclonic circulation and significant temperature advection predominantly on the western side of the centroid, resulting in dry weather and the poleward movement of warm air toward the ridges near the PV streamers.

The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations

Abstract. Cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean is typically triggered by the intrusion of a potential vorticity (PV) streamer over the Mediterranean. The intrusion of the PV streamer results from a preceding Rossby wave breaking (RWB) upstream over the North Atlantic. The ridge leading to the RWB is typically amplified by the presence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in at least one North Atlantic cyclone about 4 d prior to Mediterranean cyclogenesis. Thus, the sequence of these four main events (namely a North Atlantic cyclone, WCBs, RWB, and the resulting PV streamers) forms an archetypal scenario leading to Mediterranean cyclogenesis. However, they rarely occur in a spatially consistent, fully repetitive pattern for real cyclone cases. To more systematically study this connection between upstream North Atlantic cyclones and Mediterranean cyclogenesis, we perform a set of semi-idealized simulations over the Euro-Atlantic domain. For these simulations, we prescribe a constant climatological atmospheric state in the initial and boundary conditions. To trigger the downstream Mediterranean cyclogenesis scenario, we perturb the climatological polar jet through the inversion of a positive upper-level PV anomaly. The amplitude of this perturbation determines the intensity of the triggered North Atlantic cyclone. This cyclone provokes RWB, the intrusion of a PV streamer over the Mediterranean, and thereby the formation of a Mediterranean cyclone. Therefore, our results show a direct connection between the presence of a North Atlantic cyclone and the downstream intrusion of a PV streamer into the Mediterranean, which causes cyclogenesis about 4 d after perturbing the polar jet. We refer to this as the upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones. To investigate the sensitivity of this connection, we vary the position and amplitude of the upper-level PV anomaly. In all simulations, cyclogenesis occurs in the Mediterranean. Nevertheless, the tracks and intensity of the Mediterranean cyclones may vary by up to 20° and 10 hPa (at the time of the mature stage), respectively. This indicates that the Mediterranean cyclone dynamics are sensitive to the dynamical structure and amplitude of the intruding PV streamer, which itself is sensitive to the interaction of the upstream cyclone and the RW(B). By applying different seasonal climatological atmospheric states as initial conditions we show that cyclogenesis occurs in distinct regions in different seasons. Thus, the seasonal cycle of Mediterranean cyclogenesis might be partly determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, i.e., the seasonal location of the polar jet. Furthermore, we show that the Mediterranean cyclones in these semi-idealized simulations show characteristics that agree with the observed climatology of Mediterranean cyclones in the respective season.

Changes in Weather Systems during Anomalously Wet and Dry Years in Southeastern Australia

Abstract This study focuses on the rainfall-producing weather systems in the southern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. These weather systems are divided into objects: cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, warm conveyor belt (WCB) inflows, WCB ascents, potential vorticity (PV) streamers, and cutoff lows. We investigate the changes in the frequency, amplitude, and relative position of these objects as the daily and seasonal rainfall change. Days on which the rainfall is heavy, especially in winter, are characterized by more PV streamers, cutoff lows, cyclones, fronts, and WCBs in the region. In contrast, dry days are characterized by more anticyclones over southeastern Australia in winter and summer. The effect of upper-level weather objects (PV streamers and cutoff lows) on lower-level objects, and their importance in producing rainfall, is quantified using the quasigeostrophic ω equation and separating the vertical motion into that induced by the upper and lower levels. On heavy rainfall days in winter, PV streamers and cutoff lows force strong upward motion in the lower troposphere, promoting cyclogenesis at lower levels, forcing ascent in the WCBs, and producing rain downstream of the southern MDB. Lower-level ascent forced by upper-level objects is important for the development of heavy rainfall in both seasons, although particularly in winter. Rainfall is attributed to individual objects. PV streamers and WCBs contribute most to the winter and summer rainfall, respectively. The difference in rainfall between anomalously wet and dry years can be explained in winter by the changes in the rainfall associated with PV streamers, whereas in summer it is mostly due to a reduction in the rainfall associated with WCBs. Significance Statement The aim of the present study is to better understand how synoptic-scale weather systems differ in southeastern Australia in dry and wet periods, by considering a wide range of weather systems. We found weather systems are more closely aligned in the vertical on heavy rainfall days, and the majority of rainfall in this region is associated with warm conveyor belts. These results point to warm conveyor belts being an important, but not well recognized, contributor to rainfall in this region. Future work may investigate the roles of the various modes of variability and climate change in modulating warm conveyor belts and hence the regional rainfall variability in Australia.

Severe convective outbreak in Siberia in May 2020: Event analysis and high-resolution simulation

Western Siberia is exposed to extreme wind events caused by severe convective storms. However, our knowledge on such storms in Siberia is still fragmentary compared to other parts of the world primarily due to the lack of weather radar data. These storms cause substantial damage, which signifies the need for comprehensive assessment of their characteristics and predictability even on the basis of existing data. In this paper, we present a case study analysis of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 25–26 May 2020 in Western Siberia, during a record six-month heatwave that lasted in Siberia from January to June. The outbreak resulted in six fatalities and substantial economic losses. Using various satellite data and damage reports we found that two consecutive mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) developed within the outbreak having an exceptionally long total track about 2000 km and causing large-scale forest damage with a total area of 64.5 km2. Such an exceptionally long path was supported by a strong mid-tropospheric jet, which settled extremely high values of wind shear that fostered the development of the outbreak. To analyze the accuracy of the forecast of the MCS and three associated windstorms on 26 May, we performed a set of simulations with the COSMO and ICON numerical weather prediction models launched with convection-permitting resolution (2.2 km) with different forecast lead times. Both models successfully predicted the most severe windstorm with the <50 km spatial displacement and the <1.5 h time shift, but COSMO generally simulated more strong wind. However, two other windstorms of that day were predicted with lower accuracy. The simulation results revealed a limited sensitivity of the model to variations in initial soil temperature and moisture. Together with the better performance of the forecast with >24 h lead time, this emphasized the predominant role of large-scale dynamics and the minor role of local factors in the outbreak formation and development. In particular, the intrusion of the upper tropospheric high potential vorticity streamer along the blocking periphery induced strong deep convection and determined the severe character of the outbreak. Specifically, the studied outbreak had an exceptional longevity compared to other long-lived windstorms observed in Northern Eurasia at the blocking periphery.

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations

Abstract. Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, called medicanes, present a multi-scale nature, and their track and intensity have been recognized as highly sensitive to large-scale atmospheric forcing and diabatic heating as represented by the physical parameterizations in numerical weather prediction. Here, we analyse the structure and investigate the predictability of medicanes with the aid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) ensemble forecasting system with 25 perturbed members at 9 km horizontal resolution (compared with the 16 km operational resolution). The IFS ensemble system includes the representation of initial uncertainties from the ensemble data assimilation (EDA) and a recently developed uncertainty representation of the model physics with perturbed parameters (stochastically perturbed parameterizations, SPP). The focus is on three medicanes, Ianos, Zorbas, and Trixie, among the strongest in recent years. In particular, we have carried out separate ensemble simulations with initial perturbations, full physics SPP, with a reduced set of SPP, where only convection is perturbed to highlight the convective nature of medicanes and an operational ensemble combining the SPP and the initial perturbations. It is found that compared with the operational analysis and satellite rainfall data, the forecasts reproduce the tropical-like features of these cyclones. Furthermore, the SPP simulations compare to the initial-condition perturbation ensemble in terms of tracking, intensity, precipitation, and, more generally, in terms of ensemble skill and spread. Moreover, the study confirms that similar processes are at play in the development of the investigated three medicanes, in that the predictability of these cyclones is linked not only to the prediction of the precursor events (namely the deep cutoff low) but also to the interaction of the upper-level advected potential vorticity (PV) streamer with the tropospheric PV anomaly that is diabatically produced by latent heat.

Linkages between Potential Vorticity Streamer Activity and Tropical Cyclone Predictability on Subseasonal Time Scales

Abstract Potential vorticity streamers (PVSs) are elongated filaments of high-PV air near the tropopause. In the warm season, anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) produces enhanced PVS activity, which in turn modifies the equatorward tropical environment by enhancing vertical wind shear (VWS). This enhanced VWS can play an important role in suppressing nearby tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Given the important role that PVSs play in modifying their local environment, forecasts of PVS activity on subseasonal time scales may also influence forecasts of TC activity. This study uses Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) 45-day forecasts initialized during boreal summer 2009–15 to investigate subseasonal predictability of PVSs and TCs in the North Atlantic. PVSs are identified on the 350-K isentropic surface bounded by the 2 PV unit (PVU; 1 PVU = 10−6 K kg−1 m2 s−1) contour and defined as the high-PV trough axis downstream of the AWB axis. TCs are identified in the forecasts using the TempestExtremes detection algorithm that tracks warm-core lows. PVS and TC activity metrics that sum the number and intensity of events for a given time period are also computed. We first use skill scores and mean-state biases to determine the typical predictability of PVS activity, and then subselect high- and low-PVS-activity forecasts to determine how PVS forecast errors impact TC activity forecast errors. Results show that PVS activity can modulate TC activity at subseasonal time scales, with over-forecasted PVS activity corresponding to underestimated forecasts of TC activity and vice versa. This inverse correlation is consistent with enhanced VWS occurring equatorward of PVS troughs in the high-PVS forecasts.

A high‐impact meso‐beta vortex in the Adriatic Sea

AbstractOn the evening of November 12, 2019, an exceptional high tide – the second‐highest in the ranking since sea‐level data have been recorded – hit the city of Venice in northern Italy and its entire lagoon, damaging a large part of its historical center. A small warm‐core mesoscale cyclone, which formed in the central Adriatic Sea and intensified during its northwestward movement toward the Venice lagoon, was responsible for the event. The cyclone was preceded by intense northeasterlies (Bora) in the northern Adriatic, which turned to southeasterlies (Sirocco) and then southwesterlies after its passage. Simulations with different initialization times were carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulation results show a strong sensitivity to the initial conditions, since the track (and strength) of the cyclone was determined by the exact position of an upper‐level potential vorticity (PV) streamer. The factors responsible for the cyclone development and its characteristics are also investigated. The pre‐existence of positive low‐level cyclonic vorticity, associated with the convergence of the Sirocco and Bora winds in the central Adriatic, made the environment favorable for cyclone development. Also, the interaction between the upper‐level PV anomaly and the low‐level baroclinicity, created by the advection of warm, humid air associated with the Sirocco, was responsible for the cyclone's intensification, in a manner similar to a transitory (stable) baroclinic interaction at small horizontal scales. Sensitivity experiments reveal that convection, latent heat release and sea‐surface fluxes did not play a significant role, indicating that this cyclone did not show tropical‐like characteristics, notwithstanding its low‐level warm core. Thus, the warm‐core feature appears mainly as a characteristic of the environment in which the cyclone developed rather than a consequence of diabatic processes. Lastly, the cyclone does not fall into any of the existing categories for Adriatic cyclones.

The impact of weak environmental steering flow on tropical cyclone track predictability

AbstractTyphoonsHaiyan(2013) andHagupit(2014) are examples of two tropical cyclones (TCs) for which, despite similarities in the track and intensity, the predictabilities differed greatly. Both TCs made landfall over the Philippines having followed a similar track across the Pacific and both reached intensities in excess of 60 ms−1. Operational global ensemble forecasts showed large uncertainty in the track of , whereas the ensemble spread for was considerably less. Using the Met Office's Unified Model, 5‐day global ensemble forecasts were produced for both storms. Consistent with the operational forecasts produced at the time of the storms, the spread of tracks is greater in the forecasts produced for than . The latter was located on the southern periphery of the subtropical high and embedded in a strong easterly flow. In contrast, the position of between two anticyclones earlier in the forecast is key to the subsequent motion of the storm in determining whether would make landfall over the Philippines or turn to the north. Upper‐level winds contributed the most to the depth‐averaged steering flow. Statistically significant differences in the strength of the upper‐level anticyclone to the east of the storm, the strength and position of the upper‐level ridge downstream of the storm and the location of a detached potential vorticity (PV) streamer appear between two groups of ensemble members – those which turn to the north and those which make landfall. Positional differences of the TC in different ensemble members earlier in the forecasts, particularly in the east to west direction, are correlated to larger northeast to southwest position differences later in the forecast. Ensemble sensitivity analysis suggests that this initial east–west positional variance is linked to the upper‐level geopotential height directly south of the storm. Accurately representing both the steering flow and the position of is vital for an accurate forecast.

Large-scale drivers of the mistral wind: link to Rossby wave life cycles and seasonal variability

Abstract. The mistral is a northerly low-level jet blowing through the Rhône valley in southern France and down to the Gulf of Lion. It is co-located with the cold sector of a low-level lee cyclone in the Gulf of Genoa, behind an upper-level trough north of the Alps. The mistral wind has long been associated with extreme weather events in the Mediterranean, and while extensive research focused on the lower-tropospheric mistral and lee cyclogenesis, the different upper-tropospheric large- and synoptic-scale settings involved in producing the mistral wind are not generally known. Here, the isentropic potential vorticity (PV) structures governing the occurrence of the mistral wind are classified using a self-organizing map (SOM) clustering algorithm. Based upon a 36-year (1981–2016) mistral database and daily ERA-Interim isentropic PV data, 16 distinct mistral-associated PV structures emerge. Each classified flow pattern corresponds to a different type or stage of the Rossby wave life cycle, from broad troughs to thin PV streamers to distinguished cutoffs. Each of these PV patterns exhibits a distinct surface impact in terms of the surface cyclone, surface turbulent heat fluxes, wind, temperature and precipitation. A clear seasonal separation between the clusters is evident, and transitions between the clusters correspond to different Rossby-wave-breaking processes. This analysis provides a new perspective on the variability of the mistral and of the Genoa lee cyclogenesis in general, linking the upper-level PV structures to their surface impact over Europe, the Mediterranean and north Africa.

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) frequently cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts in many parts of the world. Previous studies considered two synoptic-scale processes, Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport, typically in isolation, and their linkage to such EPEs in several regions. This study presents for the first time a global and systematic climatological analysis of these two synoptic-scale processes, in tandem and in isolation, for the occurrence of EPEs. To this end, we use 40-year ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979–2018) and apply object-based identification methods for (i) daily EPEs, (ii) stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, and (iii) structures of high vertically integrated horizontal water vapour transport (IVT). First, the importance of these two synoptic-scale processes is demonstrated by case studies of previously documented flood events that inflicted catastrophic impacts in different parts of the world. Next, a climatological quantification shows that Rossby wave breaking is associated with &gt;90 % of EPEs over central North America and the Mediterranean, whereas intense moisture transport is linked to &gt;95 % of EPEs over many coastal zones, consistent with findings of atmospheric river-related studies. Combined Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport contributes up to 70 % of EPEs in several subtropical and extratropical regions, including (semi)arid desert regions where tropical–extratropical interactions are of key importance for (heavy) rainfall. Odds ratios of EPEs linked to the two synoptic-scale processes suggest that intense moisture transport has a stronger association with the occurrence of EPEs than Rossby wave breaking. Furthermore, the relationship between the PV and IVT characteristics and the precipitation volumes shows that the depth of the wave breaking and moisture transport intensity are intimately connected with the extreme precipitation severity. Finally, composites reveal that subtropical and extratropical EPEs, linked to Rossby wave breaking, go along with the formation of upper-level troughs and cyclogenetic processes near the surface downstream, reduced static stability beneath the upper-level forcing (only over water), and dynamical lifting ahead (over water and land). This study concludes with a concept that reconciles well-established meteorological principles with the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for the formation of EPEs. Another conclusion with major implications is that different combinations of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport can reflect a large range of EPE-related weather systems across climate zones and can thus form the basis for a new classification of EPE regimes. The findings of this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that lead to EPEs and may find application in climatic studies on extreme precipitation changes in a warming climate.

Synoptic and dynamic analysis of a flash flood-inducing heavy rainfall event in arid and semi-arid central-northern Iran and its simulation using the WRF model

The synoptic and dynamic aspects of heavy rainfall occurred on 5th May 2017 and caused flash flooding in arid and semi-arid central-northern Iran is analyzed by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This system synoptically is attributed to a surface low-pressure centered over southern Iran extended to the central parts, linking to a mid-tropospheric tilted-trough over western Iran, and advecting significant moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea to the studied area. The dynamical analysis revealed that the penetration of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity streamer up to 300 hPa level was not related to such heavy rainfall. Contrarily, the low-level factors such as extensive moisture advection, mid-tropospheric diabatic processes such as the latent heat release, daytime deep convection, and topographical impact of Zagros Mountains were found as the key factors leading to this system. This study also examines 11 different convection schemes simulated by the WRF model and verified against rainfall observation. The forecast skills of the output simulations suggest the Grell-Devenyi scheme as the superior configuration in simulating observed precipitation of the event over the area.

Rossby wave breaking and blocking events associated with some atmospheric circulation regimes in the Northern Hemisphere based on a climate system model (PlaSim-ICMMG-1.0)

Potential vorticity (PV) streamers and cutoffs are indicators of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) near the extratropical tropopause. The Rossby wave breaking forms an elongated high-PV stratospheric air tongue that extends to the equator and a tropospheric low PV air tongue that extends to the pole. There are two types of RWB: equatorward and poleward ones. Frequently, PV tongues stretch into narrow filaments, so-called PV streamers that split into PV cutoff vortices. Here the terms stratospheric PV streamer and cutoff refer to stratospheric features of isentropic surfaces (PV > 2 PVU; where 1 PVU = 10−6 K_kg−1 m2_s−1). In this paper, we study a configuration of the potential vortex field using model data. The main areas of RWB in winter and summer are shown. Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, but they have often been the cause of unsuccessful future climate projections. In this paper, we have examined the seasonal frequency of global blocking events in relation to a change in the mean EOF index based on some modeling results obtained by using a climate system model, PlaSim-ICMMG-1.0.

How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)

Abstract. Mediterranean cyclogenesis is known to be frequently linked to ridge building over the North Atlantic and subsequent anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Europe. But understanding of how this linkage affects the medium-range forecast uncertainty of Mediterranean cyclones is limited, as previous predictability studies have mainly focused on the relatively rare cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis preceded by upstream extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. This study exploits a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational ensemble forecast with an uncertain potential vorticity (PV) streamer position over the Mediterranean that, 3 d after initialization, resulted in an uncertain development of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Zorbas in September 2018. Later initializations showed substantially lower forecast uncertainties over the Mediterranean. An ad hoc clustering of the ensemble members according to the PV streamer position in the Mediterranean is used to study the upstream evolution of the synoptic to mesoscale forecast uncertainties. Cluster differences show that forecast uncertainties were amplified on the stratospheric side of a jet streak over the North Atlantic during the first day of the ensemble prediction. Subsequently, they propagated downstream and were further amplified within a short-wave perturbation along the wave guide, superimposed onto the large-scale Rossby wave pattern. After 3 d, the uncertainties reached the Mediterranean, where they resulted in a large spread in the position of the PV streamer. These uncertainties further translated into uncertainties in the position and thermal structure of the Mediterranean cyclone. In particular, the eastward displacement of the PV streamer in more than a third of the ensemble members resulted in a very different cyclone scenario. In this scenario, cyclogenesis occurred earlier than in the other members in connection to a pre-existing surface trough over the Levantine Sea. These cyclones did not develop the deep warm core typical of medicanes. It is proposed that the eastward-shifted cyclogenesis resulted in reduced values of low-level equivalent potential temperature in the cyclogenesis area. As a result, latent heating was not intense and deep enough to erode the upper-level PV anomaly and allow the formation of a deep warm core. The westward displacement led to surface cyclones that were too weak, and a medicane formed in only half of the members. The central, i.e. correct, PV streamer position resulted in the most accurate forecasts with a strong medicane in most members. This study is the first that explicitly investigates the impact of PV streamer position uncertainty for medicane development. Overall, results extend current knowledge of the role of upstream uncertainties in the medium-range predictability and unsteady forecast behavior of Mediterranean cyclones including medicanes.

Rapid Destruction of a Stratospheric Potential Vorticity Anomaly by Convectively Induced Inertial Instability during the Southern Wisconsin Extreme Flooding Event of 20 August 2018

AbstractThe stalling and rapid destruction of a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) by convectively detrained inertially unstable air is described. On 20 August 2018, 10–15 in. (~0.3–0.4 m) of rain fell on western Dane County, Wisconsin, primarily during 0100–0300 UTC 21 August (1900–2100 CDT 20 August), leading to extreme local flooding. Dynamical aspects are investigated using the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostratic Modeling System (UWNMS). Results are compared with available radiosonde, radar, total rainfall estimates, satellite infrared, and high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses. Using ECMWF analyses, the formation of the UTLS PV anomaly is traced to its origin a week earlier in a PV streamer over the west coast of North America. The rainfall maximum over southern Wisconsin was associated with this PV anomaly, whereby convection forming in the warm-upglide sector rotated cyclonically into the region. The quasi-stationarity of this rainfall feature was aided by a broad northeastward surge of inertially unstable convective outflow air into southeastern Wisconsin, which coincided with stalling of the eastward progression of the PV anomaly and its diversion into southern Wisconsin, extending heavy rainfall for several hours. Cessation of rainfall coincided with dilution of the PV maximum in less than an hour (2100–2200 CDT), associated with the arrival of negative PV in the upper troposphere. The region of negative PV was created when convection over Illinois transported air with low wind speed into northeastward shear. This feature is diagnosed using the convective momentum transport hypothesis.

A Feature-Based Approach to Classifying Summertime Potential Vorticity Streamers Linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in the North Atlantic Basin

AbstractThis study examines climatological potential vorticity streamer (PVS) activity associated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB), which can impact TC activity in the subtropical North Atlantic (NATL) basin via moisture and wind anomalies. PVSs are identified along the 2-PVU (1 PVU = 10−6 K kg−1 m2 s−1) contour on the 350-K isentropic surface, using a unique identification technique that combines previous methods. In total, 21 149 individual PVS instances are identified from the ERA-Interim (ERAI) climatology during June–November over 1979–2015 with a peak in July–August. The total number of PVSs identified in this study is more than previous PVS climatologies for this region, since the new technique identifies a wider range of cases. Variations in PVS size and intensity prompt the development of a new PVS activity index (PVSI), which provides an integrated measure of PVS activity that can improve comparisons with TC activity. For instance, PVSI has a stronger negative correlation with seasonal TC activity (r = −0.55) relative to PVS frequency, size, or intensity alone. PVSI in June–July is also positively correlated with PVSI in August–November (r = 0.67), suggesting predictive capability. Compared to the ERAI and Japan Meteorological Agency 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55) climatology, there are more PVSs in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) but these have weaker average intensity overall. While no long-term trend in PVSI is observed in the ERAI or JRA-55 climatologies, a negative trend is observed in CFSR, which could be related to differences in near tropopause static stability early in the climatological period (1979–86) between the CFSR and ERAI datasets.

A potential vorticity perspective on cyclogenesis over centre‐eastern South America

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of upper‐level potential vorticity (PV) structures on surface cyclogenesis in central‐eastern South America using 1979–2017 ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. Surface cyclones are identified in three regions (Argentina, Uruguay and SEBrazil) and it is quantified how often PV streamers and PV cutoffs co‐occur with cyclogenesis events. There are interesting regional and seasonal differences: in Argentina PV streamers occur mainly with cyclogenesis in summer, and in Uruguay and SEBrazil in both summer and winter. In the three regions, PV streamers associated with cyclogenesis occur most frequently at 320 K, except for summer in SEBrazil, where they predominate at 340 K. PV cutoffs occur with lower frequencies than PV streamers during cyclogenesis, and they occur more often in summer than in winter in all three regions. The dynamics of cyclogenesis differs among the three regions in some important aspects. In Argentina, the environment is slightly more baroclinic in summer and genesis occurs beneath the equatorial entrance of a jet streak. In this season, the anomalous PV associated with a PV streamer is important to favour ascent in the baroclinic environment contributing to surface cyclogenesis. Similar patterns occur for cyclogenesis in summer and winter in Uruguay, and in winter in SEBrazil. In Argentina during winter, cyclogenesis is located beneath the poleward exit of a jet streak, with a weaker PV streamer upstream. In SEBrazil during summer, the jet stream is far displaced from the genesis region and cyclogenesis occurs in a more barotropic environment.

Airmass analysis of the processes driving the progression of the Indian summer monsoon

AbstractThe Indian summer monsoon is a vital source of water and a cause of severe impacts for more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent. The INCOMPASS project investigates the mechanisms driving its onset and progression through an observational field campaign supplemented by high‐resolution numerical simulations for the 2016 season using UK Met Office models. A 4.4 km resolution convection‐permitting limited‐area model simulation (driven at its boundaries by a daily‐initialised global model) is used in this study, and verified against observations, along with short‐lead‐time operational global forecasts. These data show that the monsoon progression towards northwest India in June 2016 is a non‐steady process, modulated by the interaction between moist low‐level southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and a northwesterly incursion of descending dry air from western and central Asia. The location and extent of these two flows are closely linked to midlatitude dynamics, through the southward propagation of potential vorticity streamers and the associated formation of cyclonic circulations in the region where the two airmasses interact. Particular focus is devoted to the use of Lagrangian trajectories to characterise the evolution of the airstreams and complement the Eulerian monsoon progression analysis. The trajectories confirm that the interaction of the two airstreams is a primary driver of the general moistening of the troposphere associated with monsoon progression. They also indicate the occurrence of local diabatic processes along the airstreams, such as turbulent mixing and local evaporation from the Arabian Sea, in addition to moisture transport from remote sources. In summary, this combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis reveals the non‐steady nature of monsoon progression towards northwest India. This process is driven by the interaction of different airmasses and influenced by a synergy of factors on a variety of scales, such as midlatitude dynamics, transient weather systems and local diabatic processes.

Linkages between Extreme Precipitation Events in the Central and Eastern United States and Rossby Wave Breaking

AbstractLinkages between extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the central and eastern United States and synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking are investigated using 1979–2015 climatologies of EPEs and upper-level potential vorticity (PV) streamers. The investigation focuses on two domains over the central and eastern United States, respectively, and emphasizes widespread EPEs, events exhibiting exceptionally large precipitation volumes. The relative frequency of PV streamers is found to be significantly enhanced relative to climatology immediately upstream of each domain during widespread EPEs. Majorities of the widespread EPEs in the central (~79%) and eastern (~56%) U.S. domains co-occur with a PV streamer positioned immediately upstream. Odds ratios of EPEs for days when a PV streamer occurs upstream of each domain indicate a strong, statistically significant association between EPEs and Rossby wave breaking. The strength of the EPE–Rossby wave breaking linkage, as measured by co-occurrence fractions and odds ratios, tends to increase with increasing EPE precipitation volume, such that the strongest linkage exists for widespread EPEs. Composite analyses reveal that Rossby wave breaking can result in widespread EPEs by establishing a persistent high-amplitude synoptic-scale wave pattern, within which strong poleward water vapor transport and ascent are forced over the EPE region immediately downstream of an elongated upper-level trough. Additional analyses demonstrate that, compared to corresponding null cases, Rossby wave breaking cases resulting in widespread EPEs exhibit a significantly higher-amplitude wave pattern that favors greater poleward transport of moist, conditionally unstable air and stronger ascent over the EPE region.

Development mechanisms for Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes)

Midlatitude cyclones with characteristics similar to tropical cyclones (also known as Tropical‐Like Cyclones, TLCs, or medicanes) are sometimes observed in the Mediterranean region. The Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange (WISHE) mechanism has been considered responsible for their development, in analogy with tropical‐cyclone theory. However, some recent papers have proposed a different explanation, suggesting that the deep warm core in the TLC is mainly an effect of the seclusion of warm air in the cyclone core. To investigate the latter hypothesis, two case‐studies of Mediterranean TLCs are analysed here by means of high‐resolution numerical experiments. The evolution of the near‐surface equivalent potential temperature is followed along back‐trajectories around the cyclone centre, showing for both cases a strong heating when the parcel moves from the outer part of the cyclone to its inner, warmer core. Sensitivity experiments clarify the mechanism of cyclone intensification and the way the warm‐core structure is generated, showing that sea‐surface fluxes and/or condensation latent heating are fundamental to explain the intensification of the cyclones. However, the importance of air–sea interaction processes is case dependent. For the first cyclone, the intense sea‐surface fluxes, associated with tramontane and cierzo winds over the western Mediterranean Sea, transfer a large amount of energy from the ocean to the atmosphere in the area where the cyclone developed, so that the vortex is able to sustain itself in a barotropic environment and reach a tropical‐like structure at a later stage in its lifetime. For the second cyclone, the cyclone never develops a fully tropical‐like structure, evolving in the baroclinic environment associated with the potential vorticity streamer in which the cyclone formed. Based on the distinction emerging in this and other articles, a classification of medicanes in three different categories is proposed.