Potential Spoilers Research Articles

Information, Commitment, and Intra-War Bargaining: The Effect of Governmental Constraints on Civil War Duration1

Thyne, Clayton L. (2012) Information, Commitment, and Intra-War Bargaining: The Effect of Governmental Constraints on Civil War Duration. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00719.x © 2012 International Studies Association This article considers how governmental variations affect the duration of civil conflicts. Recent work suggests that war termination is likely when competing actors gain information about the power balance and are able to credibly commit to war-ending agreements. I focus on how the strength and stability of executives impact these factors. Regarding information, power consolidation within the government reduces the number of people who must agree on a settlement, which should shorten civil conflicts. Stable leadership should likewise shorten conflicts by making it harder for potential spoilers to derail war-ending agreements, helping minimize credibility problems. This argument is tested by examining how variations in institutional design (executive constitutional and legislative power), political strength (ideological fragmentation and polarization), and stability (leadership tenure) affect the duration of civil conflicts from 1946 to 2004. The results suggest that powerful and stable executives are indeed well equipped to end civil conflicts.

Democracy in Action: A Campaign Rally from the 2012 Taiwanese Presidential Elections

The 2012 Taiwanese presidential elections marked the fifth election in which the citizens of the Republic of China have selected their president by direct vote. The race was a long and exciting one with three major candidates: the incumbent, Ma Ying-jeou, a member of the Guomindang or KMT; Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) challenger Tsai Ing-wen; and potential third-party spoiler James Soong of the People First Party. As Taiwan’s democratic process has matured since the first direct election in 1996, international observers have had the opportunity to witness Taiwanese democracy in action by following candidates on the campaign trail. A member of a SAIS delegation studying the 2012 election, the photographer attended a rally the evening before the election to observe the DPP campaign at work.

Islamization of Knowledge

The assumptions on which the Islamization of knowledge project was linked to the movement for restoration of Islam to a position of leadership and dominance in contemporary society may not have all been correct. Knowledge creation and beneficial use of new knowledge are two distinct though complementary processes. Each has its own requirement. Morality rooted in spirituality is decisive in ensuring that new knowledge is used beneficially. But creation of new knowledge requires freedoms of thought and discussion, encouragement of creativity and innovation, and toleration of dissent and diversity. It requires a mindset that can entertain ambiguity, one that does not hasten to discard potential spoilers of legacies long established as sacred ‒ requirements which the sponsors of the Islamization of knowledge project might have failed to give due weight. The project can be revived only by recognizing the primacy of expanding knowledge over the necessity of ensuring proper use of knowledge. It is in the nature of the first, expansion of knowledge (by creating new knowledge) that is universal. Differences of faith or moral vision, so important in the context of the second stage (putting knowledge to good use) need not stand in the way of cooperation and collaboration in the first stage. Have the sponsors of the Islamization project neglected this truth? What could be worse: have they abdicated the first step in their eagerness to do justice to the second? This paper concludes by inviting Islamization enthusiasts to join the rest of humanity in expanding knowledge, while simultaneously working for creating universal awareness of what makes use of knowledge beneficial and prevents the fatal error of allowing laissez-faire in the use of knowledge. I also argue that conceiving of knowledge as a tool for power and hegemony can be frustrating if not outright destructive. Last but not the least, we cannot know all that needs be known and, no less important, not everything is known with the same degree of certainty. Humility requires we recognize our limits. Ambiguity and a degree of uncertainty is built into the human situation. It cannot be wished away. Having adopted a humble stance, the way forward is to share the quest of knowledge and its proper use with all and everyone.

Islamization of Knowledge

The assumptions on which the Islamization of knowledge project was linked to the movement for restoration of Islam to a position of leadership and dominance in contemporary society may not have all been correct. Knowledge creation and beneficial use of new knowledge are two distinct though complementary processes. Each has its own requirement. Morality rooted in spirituality is decisive in ensuring that new knowledge is used beneficially. But creation of new knowledge requires freedoms of thought and discussion, encouragement of creativity and innovation, and toleration of dissent and diversity. It requires a mindset that can entertain ambiguity, one that does not hasten to discard potential spoilers of legacies long established as sacred ‒ requirements which the sponsors of the Islamization of knowledge project might have failed to give due weight. The project can be revived only by recognizing the primacy of expanding knowledge over the necessity of ensuring proper use of knowledge. It is in the nature of the first, expansion of knowledge (by creating new knowledge) that is universal. Differences of faith or moral vision, so important in the context of the second stage (putting knowledge to good use) need not stand in the way of cooperation and collaboration in the first stage. Have the sponsors of the Islamization project neglected this truth? What could be worse: have they abdicated the first step in their eagerness to do justice to the second? This paper concludes by inviting Islamization enthusiasts to join the rest of humanity in expanding knowledge, while simultaneously working for creating universal awareness of what makes use of knowledge beneficial and prevents the fatal error of allowing laissez-faire in the use of knowledge. I also argue that conceiving of knowledge as a tool for power and hegemony can be frustrating if not outright destructive. Last but not the least, we cannot know all that needs be known and, no less important, not everything is known with the same degree of certainty. Humility requires we recognize our limits. Ambiguity and a degree of uncertainty is built into the human situation. It cannot be wished away. Having adopted a humble stance, the way forward is to share the quest of knowledge and its proper use with all and everyone.

Reintegration and localised conflict: security impacts beyond influencing spoilers

This article investigates the effectiveness of combatant reintegration through a case study of two security-oriented programmes held in Poso, Indonesia from 2007 to 2008. Each programme aimed to prevent further attacks by addressing perceived economic difficulties experienced by youths whose main skill was perpetrating violence. The effect of such reintegration programmes on potential spoilers has typically been conceptualised in terms of programme influences on former combatants themselves. But in a localised conflict context where many combatants may have held jobs while perpetrating violence, the paper finds that the clearest contribution to sustaining peace of reintegration programming was its effect on police capacity to manage security. Police increased their levels of contact with combatants through reintegration and other informal incentives, then leveraged this contact to gather information after security incidents and to detect potential security disturbances. This pattern of achieving security outcomes through police contact with perpetrators of violence owes its conceptual lineage to the counter-terrorism strategy of the Indonesian police. The case highlights the potential for greater exchange between the fields of combatant reintegration and counter-terrorism disengagement.

Coming to Terms with Separatist Insurgencies

Although insurgencies may begin their rebellions with expressed desires for outcomes unacceptable to opposing governments, the desired insurgent outcomes sometimes undergo modification, creating conditions that can make governments more amenable to external mediation. In certain separatist conflicts, the likelihood of external mediation increases when the political redefinition of the state insisted upon by the insurgents undergoes a revision, from secession to self‐determination, understood as a variant of autonomy.In the same vein, although it may not happen concurrently, insurgent movements become more amenable to external mediation if and when opposing governments revise the preferred conflict outcome from a military defeat of the insurgents to a containment of the movement. These two developments can serve as objective referents helping external parties to identify a ripe moment in the conflict and initiate mediation.But the implementation of an agreement ending separatist conflict may not occur if the government fails to submit the proposed territorial bounds of autonomy to prior review by constituents. Potential spoilers among government constituents should be identified and recruited to participate in the negotiations so that the likelihood of agreement rejection is reduced. In some states, however, the legal mechanisms and political opportunities for constituents to act as spoilers do not exist.

Indonesia: The Irony of Success

Abstract: Indonesia is alternately lauded as a democratization success story and derided as an exemplar of low-quality democracy. This article explains both Indonesian democracy's surprising survival and its defects by focusing on how it fended off three potential spoilers: the military, Islamism and ethnic and regional unrest. In each case, democratic spoilers were granted concessions and incorporated into the democratic system, rather than being excluded from it, pointing to an absorptive capacity in Indonesian democracy inherited from the predecessor authoritarian Suharto regime. Indonesian democracy's resilience and its defects are not in fundamental conflict, but are two sides of the one coin.

Peace building and spoilers

As the UN Peacebuilding Commission begins to plan it work, it is important to consider how to deal with ‘spoilers’ as a threat to security: groups that actively seek to hinder or undermine conflict settlement. This paper takes a broad approach to the concept of spoiling and considers a wide range of actors as potential spoilers: not only rebel groups and insurgents, but also diasporas, governments and other entities. The authors demonstrate that imposed or ill-conceived peace processes can sow the seeds of spoiling, but that spoiler violence does not necessarily indicate that a peace process is doomed to failure.

Zygosaccharomyces bailiias a potential spoiler of mustard

An uncommon case of extensive spoilage of table mustard byZygosaccharomyces bailii is described. The strains isolated were remarkably tolerant to benzoic and sorbic acid, but relatively susceptible to increased temperature (>37°C). The source of the infection was not identified. This case highlights the importance ofZ. bailii in spoilage of many foods and beverages.

The importance of being earnest: The NPT review and extension conference

The threat that nuclear power presents to the world has been offset by the fact that when it is properly constrained, it provides an important deterrent. This delicate equilibrium depends on many factors, not least on the control of the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue states—which is where the nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty has been of paramount importance. Mitchell Reiss here outlines US preparations to help ensure the extension of the treaty in New York and possible obstacles in its path— namely, potential spoiler countries and the complexities, of voting’ procedures: Failure to extend the treaty has dangerous ramifications for us all.