Potential Spillovers Research Articles

Goat seropositivity as an indicator of Rift Valley fever (RVF) infection in human populations: A case-control study of the 2018 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Wajir County, Kenya

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis, which is considered as a threat to food security in the Horn of Africa. In Kenya, RVF is the 5th ranked priority zoonotic disease due to its high morbidity and mortality, frequent outbreak events, and associated socioeconomic impacts during outbreak events. In 2018, an RVF outbreak was confirmed in Kenya's Siaya, Wajir, and Marsabit counties. During this outbreak, 30 people were confirmed infected with RVF through laboratory tests; 21 in Wajir, 8 in Marsabit, and 1 in Siaya Counties.Seventy-five (75) households (15 cases and 60 controls) were selected and interviewed using a case-control study design in 2021 (?). A case was a household with a member who was diagnosed with RVF in 2018. In addition, a total of 1029 animals were purposively selected within these households and serologically tested for RVF. The study aimed to estimate the contribution of various risk factors to RVF human occurrence in Kenya with a special focus on Wajir County. Wajir County was chosen due to high number of confirmed human cases reported in the 2018 outbreak. A univariable regression model revealed that owner-reported RVF virus exposure in livestock significantly increased the odds of an RVF human case in the household by 32.7 times (95 % CI 4.0–267.4). The respondent being linked to a goat flock that was IgG-positive increased the odds of an RVF human case by 3.8 times (95 % CI 1.17–12.3). In the final multivariable analysis, the respondent being linked to their own animals affected by RVF increased odds of having an RVF human case in the household by 56.9 times (95 % CI 4.6–700.4), while the respondent being linked to a neighbor household member affected decreased odds of having a RVF human case by 0.1 times (95 % CI 0.08–0.75).In summary, these results have revealed a potential link for the spread of RVF infection from animals to humans in pastoralist households, hence it is critical to carry out targeted, community education, One Health surveillance, prevention, and control measures against the disease. This will be critical to protecting humans against potential spillovers of infections during outbreak events in livestock.

The implications of the EU cohesion policy instruments and cross-border cooperation projects on social entrepreneurship in Euroregions

The current paper investigates the implications of the EU Cohesion Policy instrument Interreg through the implementation of cross-border cooperation projects on social entrepreneurship. Cross-border cooperation projects are implemented in Euroregions and invest in new knowledge and innovative solutions in policy priorities spread over social, environmental, and economic domains. Policy priorities in social and environmental domains overlap fields of play where social entrepreneurs operate. We build on the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and use a quantitative design to investigate the influence of EU-funded cross-border cooperation projects on the number of social enterprises in Luxembourg. We employed a rolling window analysis with ARIMA on a sample of 207 cross-border cooperation projects implemented between 2000 and 2020. We predicted social entrepreneurial activity in Euroregions in Luxembourg using investments through the EU Cohesion Policy in the social, environmental, and economic domains and identified a positive relationship in the social domain. The current study shows that investments in the social domain positively and significantly predict social entrepreneurial activity, supporting the critical role of the EU Cohesion Policy on social entrepreneurship. Our study discusses how social entrepreneurship can benefit from EU cross-border cooperation projects as recipients of potential knowledge spillovers.

Participation in biodiversity schemes and environmental performance: overall farm-level impact and spillover effects on non-enrolled land

Abstract We evaluate how the share of farmland enrolled in agri-environmental schemes affects the biodiversity friendliness of management practices both on the overall farmland as well as on the enrolled and non-enrolled plots separately. To this end, we prepare a unique dataset for Switzerland that links farm-level accountancy data to plot-level data on management practices and their impact on organismal biodiversity. Our estimates allow us to calculate bounds for potential spillovers on non-enrolled farmland. We find that these are positive but small in magnitude. The effect on the overall farmland is also positive but again rather small.

Is the Dutch disease well and alive? A cross-country assessment of mining spillovers on employment in the 2002–2014 period

Following the Dutch disease model of Corden and Neary (1982), the expansion of a booming extractive sector crowds out employment in key sectors, i.e., manufacturing. To this day, these potential negative labor spillovers remain a cause of concern for policymakers. Empirical literature has explored this question by focusing on regional dynamics of employment, but country-wide effects remain understudied. This paper explores the mining sector's employment spillovers at the national level over the 2002–2014 period. Using data from WIOD, we employ Moretti's (2010) specification, as extended in Fleming and Measham (2014), and adopt a GMM model to address potential endogeneity issues. Following the decomposition in Foster-McGregor (2019), we differentiate mining employment expansion based on a) changes in domestic demand and b) changes due to exports. Along with regional studies, our results indicate that there is no evidence of negative spillovers on manufacturing jobs, regardless of the source of mining jobs expansion (domestic or exports). Such results hold even in countries with relatively low levels of manufacturing output. We do find some evidence of negative effects in agriculture, and positive effects on construction and services; this, however, seems to hold only in countries with relatively low manufacturing output. Findings also suggest that positive elasticities at the national level, when observed, are quite moderate: e.g., a 10% increment in mining employment leads to a 1.1%–1.4% increment in construction employment.

The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time‐varying effects

SummaryWe provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state‐level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non‐oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non‐oil) employment in most oil‐producing and some manufacturing‐intensive US states increase following an oil‐specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

Economic Growth and Spatial Analysis in Transport Corridors: A Preliminary Review

Abstract The construction and development of international transport corridors have become a means of cross-border space governance, promoting the flexibility of international industrial chains and supply chains. Due to the uncertainty of cooperation, the development of international transport corridors entails a long-term and complex system of engineering. Transport corridors can generate wider economic benefits and costs through their effects on a potentially diverse set of development outcomes, such as economic growth, poverty, jobs, equity, environmental quality, and economic resilience. The focus on roads, rails, and waterways is justified, as transport corridors based on these modes have clearer potential for economic spillovers than, for example, airline routes. The current paper describes a multi-method approach involving spatial and non-spatial analysis to investigate spatial disparity along a proposed corridor and examine its integration within the existing settlement structure. The conceptual structure for the review is guided by a simple canonical model describing the policy maker’s problem in maximizing the net wider economic benefits of corridors. The meta-analysis confirms that characteristics of individual studies, as well as the placement and design of transport infrastructures, systematically influence the findings of corridor studies. It also shows that, on average, estimated impacts of corridor interventions on economic welfare and equity tend to be beneficial, while they are often detrimental to environmental quality, and possibly also to social inclusion.

Origin and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2: An Enigma

SARS-CoV-2 has caught much attention due to its highly contagious nature which caused COVID-19 outbreak. Viruses have been known to evolve in response to natural selection and as a result of drug-based interventions mainly by incorporating mutations. The substantial effect of SARS-CoV-2 variants on its transmission and disease severity is prompting scientists to explore the evolutionary processes. This review summarizes different theories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution that have been put forward by different scientific schools of thought to describe the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and the possibility of bats for being its natural reservoirs. Furthermore, insights from the phylogenetic tree analysis depict divergence of VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 from the original strain in a short span of time. As evident from the genomic and phylogenetic studies, bats host a range of coronaviruses having ability for inter-species host switching, there is high probability for the potential spillovers that might lead to COVID-19-like pandemics in future

On spillovers in economic evaluations: definition, mapping review and research agenda

An important issue in economic evaluations is determining whether all relevant impacts are considered, given the perspective chosen for the analysis. Acknowledging that patients are not isolated individuals has important implications in this context. Increasingly, the term “spillovers” is used to label consequences of health interventions on others. However, a clear definition of spillovers is lacking, and as a result, the scope of the concept remains unclear. In this study, we aim to clarify the concept of spillovers by proposing a definition applicable in health economic evaluations. To illustrate the implications of this definition, we highlight the diversity of potential spillovers through an expanded impact inventory and conduct a mapping review that outlines the evidence base for the different types of spillovers. In the context of economic evaluations of health interventions, we define spillovers as all impacts from an intervention on all parties or entities other than the users of the intervention under evaluation. This definition encompasses a broader range of potential costs and effects, beyond informal caregivers and family members. The expanded impact inventory enables a systematic approach to identifying broader impacts of health interventions. The mapping review shows that the relevance of different types of spillovers is context-specific. Some spillovers are regularly included in economic evaluations, although not always recognised as such, while others are not. A consistent use of the term “spillovers”, improved measurement of these costs and effects, and increased transparency in reporting them are still necessary. To that end, we propose a research agenda.

Demand for a “smart” add-on: the case of in-home displays

ABSTRACTAn in-home display (IHD) is an important add-on to a smart electric meter that provides continuous real-time feedback to households about their energy usage and costs. Utilising experimental variation in an online survey, I estimate a price elasticity of demand for IHD of −0.15, conditional on smart meter adoption. Households who did not pay for their smart meter device are also more sensitive to the IHD price, suggesting potential negative spillovers from smart meter subsidies.

“Why and how higher education is so important for cultural and creative industries’ sustainable development?”

Considering the role played by Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and Cultural and Creative Industries (CCIs), we recognize that more knowledge is needed to provide a better understanding of their relationship, collaborations and work in relation to sustainable development. The aim of this article is to highlight why and how Higher Education (HE) is key to CCIs’sustainable development. Academic research in this specific field is scarce and we aim at soliciting more attention towards this niche research sector, given the potential positive spillovers that it could originate. Through retracing the arising of interest towards the CCIs in general and recently towards sustainability issues linked to the CCIs facing the challenge of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we show how these matters are inextricably associated to the essential role played by HE and HEIs. Thanks to the strong link between HEIs and CCIs’ sustainable development, we can expect that a sort of mimetic isomorphism process will happen in the coming years, with a choice of a strategy of imitation instead of differentiation.

Assessing vaccine hesitancy and support for vaccination requirements for pets and potential Spillovers from humans

BackgroundGrowing vaccination hesitancy is well-document among humans. However, we know very little about vaccination hesitancy for pets as well as whether the two phenomena are interconnected. Moreover, support for pet vaccination requirements also remain underassessed. MethodsWe fielded a large, national survey (N = 3,958) on August 18 and August 19, 2023, to assess U.S. public opinion about the vaccination status of dogs (rabies, canine parvovirus, canine distemper, canine influenza, and Lyme disease) and cats (rabies, feline panleukopenia (parvo), feline herpesvirus-1, feline chlamydia, and feline Bordetella) in the United States. We also queried respondents about their support for vaccination requirements for the 10 diseases. ResultsWe find that the vast majority of cats and dogs are vaccinated. However, a substantial minority of pets is not, particularly for cats and for non-core vaccines. We find that attitudinal measures of human and pet vaccine hesitancy are closely related to each other. Moreover, they are strong predictors of vaccine behavior. Measures of vaccine hesitancy are also strong predictors of support for vaccination mandates. Common measures used to assess human vaccine hesitancy showed inconsistent effects. However, pet vaccinations appear to be less politically polarizing. ConclusionThe high correlation between pet and human measures raises the stake for public health efforts to improve attitudes about vaccines and vaccination rates across the board. Strong support for vaccination requirements should encourage policymakers to explore policy change. Moreover, veterinarians and their associations should consider expanding the number of core vaccinations.

The macroeconomic spillovers from space activity

The resurgence in space activities we are witnessing may provide opportunities for new technologies to generate potential spillovers to the real economy. To address this view, we propose a macroeconomic model with endogenous growth and a space sector. The model describes the relationship between space investment and technological spillovers, which support persistent economic growth. Our estimates indicate that space activities provide growth spillovers that peak from the late 1960s to the early 1980s. Recent space activities have a much lower economic impact. Finally, extensive experiments quantify the economic relevance of our results.

Does perceived similarity of pro-environmental behaviors lead to behavioral spillover?

Similarity of pro-environmental behaviors is described as a moderator of behavioral spillover: when behaviors are perceived as similar positive spillover would be more likely. However, how people perceive similarity is unclear and therefore, the exact role that similarity plays in the spillover process is uncertain. In a survey (n = 1,536) we investigated how people clustered a variety of pro-environmental behaviors and why. Moreover, we explored potential spillovers between people's current and desired behaviors. People appeared to mainly cluster behaviors according to domains (such as energy, mobility) in addition to other categorization types. Furthermore, positive spillovers from actual to desired behavior occurred both within and between domains. In other words, similarity did not seem to play an important role in predicting spillover. In general, people who clustered behaviors into more different categories had a stronger overall desire to behave pro-environmentally than people who used fewer clusters.

How economic policy uncertainty affects asymmetric spillovers in food and oil prices: Evidence from wavelet analysis

In the context of potential asymmetric volatility spillovers between two crucial commodity markets, oil and food, little is known about the vital role played by policy uncertainties. This study explores the heterogeneous roles of policy uncertainties on spillovers between crude oil and corn and soybeans under good and bad volatility regimes from both time and frequency domain perspectives. We find, first, that oil-food market spillovers are asymmetric, time-varying and crisis-sensitive. Second, the time-frequency dependence between policy uncertainties and oil-food volatility spillovers is prominent in the context of major international events. Third, monetary policy uncertainty (TPU) weakly affects the oil-food spillover system. Still, in the long run, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) exert significant positive effects, while monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) is negative. In addition, there is considerable heterogeneity in the roles played by policy uncertainties in the specific crude oil-food pairwise spillovers. Our study has important implications for policymakers to avoid large-scale cross-market spillover transmission and for investors to hedge risks and construct appropriate portfolios.

Artificial intelligence-based tokens: Fresh evidence of connectedness with artificial intelligence-based equities

The main focus of this research is to investigate the potential spillover effects between AI-based stocks and tokens by using the quantile connectedness approach developed by Ando et al. (2022). The study aims to investigate both static and dynamic spillovers at the lower and upper tails of the return distribution. AI-based stocks and tokens may have relatively low levels of connectedness, which also varies over time and increases during periods of economic turbulence. In addition, in line with previous work analysing other financial markets and assets, this research finds that the system is more sensitive to the tails of the distribution (i.e., the lower and upper quantiles) than to the median (Q = 0.50). This finding is consistent with expectations, and measures of dynamic connectedness change over time, with the intensity of spillovers increasing at the extremes of the distribution. These results have practical implications for portfolio managers, as they can use the results to adjust their investment portfolios according to the evolution of the dynamic spillovers observed in the system. Overall, this study sheds light on the potential tail spillovers in the AI-based stock and token market and provides valuable insights for investment decisions.

Structure and Context: A Multi-Level Approach to Supply Chain Governance

The structure and governance of global supply chains not only shape social and environmental outcomes for both countries and firms, but also affect the quality of life at the local level, for those who live and work at each site of production. Existing literature on supply chain governance focuses on the transnational firm and has yielded a wide range of theoretical and empirical findings about firm- and nation-level outcomes. However, we know less about the drivers of variation in more localized social and environmental outcomes across production sites, which may result from local, national, and global actors and institutions that may interact. I provide a brief overview of the dominant literature on supply chain governance, highlighting the tendency to take an actor-centric approach. I then identify opportunities to study local social and environmental consequences of networked production using a more explicitly multi-actor and multi-level approach that can allow us to identify potential trade-offs, double wins, or spillovers between social and environmental outcomes.

Extreme spillovers between insurance tokens and insurance stocks: Evidence from the quantile connectedness approach

This study examines potential tail spillovers between insurance tokens and conventional stocks using the quantile connectedness approach by Ando et al. (2022). In particular, this study explores static and dynamic spillovers at lower and upper tails of the return distribution. In line with previous studies, tokens and conventional stocks within the insurance market may show positive but low connectedness levels. Furthermore, our findings confirm a higher sensitivity of the insurance system at both tails of the distribution in comparison with the median (Q=0.50). As expected, dynamic connectedness measures change over time, intensifying at the extremes of the distribution. This finding is confirmed by the robustness test that consists of analyzing the RTD (Relative Tail Dependence) measure, as we reject the symmetric response, since its values are clearly different from zero in most of the sample period. These results are of interest to portfolio managers, as the findings will allow them to suggest adjustments to investment portfolios according to the evolution of the dynamic spillovers found.

EFFECTS OF DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS ON THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA

The aim of the paper is to investigate and provide an argumentative explanation of the effects that direct foreign investments have on selected macroeconomic indicators in the Republic of Croatia in the period from 2000 to 2020. This paper analyses the effects that direct foreign investments have had and are having on selected macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Croatia over a 20-year time series. Most often, advocates of a greater inflow of FDI argue their positions with GDP growth, higher employment, price stability, increased exports of goods and services, and a generally better standard of living for Croatian citizens. The very entry into the Union created numerous advantages for Croatian companies, facilitated the exchange of goods with the members, but did not bring the expected influx of investments. Of the desired numerous greenfield and brownfield investments and mergers and acquisitions of companies, the realization was below expectations due to the stated objective, but also numerous subjective reasons. More precisely, investments have arrived in tourism and trade, but have been absent in basic industry and agriculture. The developments that have been observed in recent years will certainly, in addition to attracting foreign capital, contribute to the Croatian economy, especially in the IT field and green technologies. Investment experience so far shows that in the Republic of Croatia, most foreign investments have been reduced to the purchase of majority ownership in domestic vital companies, which has resulted in job reductions, disincentives for exports, and impairment of national competitiveness. In the sense of the above, the starting hypothesis of the work is: based on the knowledge of the theoretical characteristics of foreign direct investments and the functioning of the movement of international capital and technology transfer, the importance of foreign direct investments for the economy of the Republic of Croatia can be presented. In the analytical part of the paper, statistical methods of linear regression and correlation were used to analyse the influence of direct foreign investments on GDP, employment, long-term interest rate and current account of the balance of payments. The basic research results show that there is a clear and moderate connection between FDI and GDP. The conclusion of the research in the paper emphasizes how the beneficial effect of the inflow of FDI on the gross domestic product indirectly or directly positively affects employment, long-term interest rates and the balance of payments of the Republic of Croatia. Based on the analysis carried out, it can be stated that foreign direct investments can bring improvement to the national economy only when; if they target more advanced industries so the potential technological spillovers are greater, if they establish strong ties with domestic companies that can absorb spillovers in such a way, if part of the production is exported which has a positive effect on the balance of payments and if they motivate domestic companies to follow them.

Volatility transmission dynamics between energy and financial indices of emerging markets: a comparison between the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the volatility transmission between an energy stock index and a financial stock index in emerging markets during recent high instability periods. The study considers the impact of both the period under analysis and the data frequency on the direction and intensity of the contagion, as well as the effect of the potential spillovers on the risk measures. These questions still lack definitive answers and have become more relevant in a context of financially unsettling events such as COVID-19 crises.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs an extension of the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model that allows for the time-varying dependence relationship between the variables. This dependence is analyzed at daily, weekly and monthly basis using data from the Bloomberg platform on energy and stock market indices for emerging markets between 2001 and 2021.FindingsThe results for a sample spanning from 2001 to mid-2021 show bidirectional volatility transmission on a daily basis, whereas only evidence of volatility transmission from the financial to the energy exists for weekly and monthly frequencies. However, considering different subsamples of daily data, the authors only find volatility transmission from financial (energy) index to the energy (financial) during the Great Recession (COVID-19) as a consequence of the different source of the shock and transmission channels.Originality/valueThis study reveals that volatility transmission between energy and stocks in emerging markets has changed and presents a unidirectional pattern from energy to financial markets during the COVID-19 period in contrast to calm and the sub-prime crisis intervals. These results differ from previous studies, focused on global markets, that show bidirectional spillovers during this period.

Rapid response screening for emerging zoonotic pathogens, barriers and opportunities: A study for enhanced preparedness of the Netherlands

BackgroundOutbreaks of zoonotic emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) require rapid identification of potential reservoir hosts and mapping disease spread in these hosts to inform risk assessment and adequate control measures. Animals are often understudied when a novel EID is detected in humans and acquisition of animal samples is hampered by practical, ethical, and legal barriers, of which there is currently no clear overview. Therefore, the three aims of this study are (1) to map potentially available collections of animal samples, (2) to assess possibilities and barriers for reuse of these samples and (3) to assess possibilities and barriers for active animal and environmental sampling in the Netherlands. MethodsA literature search was performed to identify ongoing sampling activities and opportunities for reuse or active sampling. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholder organizations were conducted to gain further insight into the three research questions. ResultsVarious sample collections of surveillance, diagnostic and research activities exist in the Netherlands. Sample size, coverage, storage methods and type of samples collected differs per animal species which influences reuse suitability. Organizations are more likely to share samples, for reuse in outbreak investigations, when they have a pre-existing relationship with the requesting institute. Identified barriers for sharing were, among others, unfamiliarity with legislation and unsuitable data management systems. Active sampling of animals or the environment is possible through several routes. Related barriers are acquiring approval from animal- or property owners, conflicts with anonymization, and time needed to acquire ethical approval. ConclusionThe animal sample collections identified would be very valuable for use in outbreak investigations. Barriers for sharing may be overcome by increasing familiarity with legislation, building (international) sharing networks and agreements before crises occur and developing systems for sample registration and biobanking. Proactive setting up of ethical approvals will allow for rapid animal sample collection to identify EID hosts and potential spillovers.