Potential Spillover Effects Research Articles

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS

This research paper investigates the impact of regional trade blocs (RTBs) on global trade and economic growth, adopting a comparative perspective. Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have gained significant prominence in the global economy due to their role in promoting trade liberalization and economic integration among member nations. This study aims to assess the potential for multilateral liberalization within these blocs and examines how political and ideological differences influence the effectiveness of RTBs. Additionally, it explores the consequences of the proliferation of RTAs on international trade dynamics and their broader economic implications. The analysis begins by examining the effects of RTBs on global trade. The study compares the trade performance of RTB member countries with non-member countries to assess the extent to which RTBs contribute to trade expansion. Furthermore, the research investigates the impact of RTBs on economic growth. The economic integration fostered by RTBs can lead to increased investment flows, technology transfer, and productivity gains. It considers the potential spillover effects of RTBs on non-member countries, as increased regional integration may create both opportunities and challenges for economies outside the bloc. The analysis also delves into the complexities of multilateral liberalization within RTBs. While RTBs aim to promote trade liberalization among member countries, the presence of political and ideological differences can hinder the achievement of comprehensive agreements. The study explores the challenges faced by RTBs in reaching consensus on sensitive issues such as agriculture, intellectual property rights, and services trade. It examines the role of political dynamics and power asymmetries within RTBs in shaping the outcomes of negotiations.

Does banning cryptocurrencies affect stock markets?

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of banning cryptocurrencies on stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses an event study approach and data from stock market indices in nine countries that imposed a ban. It uses the constant mean model and the market model, with two different benchmarks for global returns, to analyze if any of the stock indices show abnormal returns on or around the announcement of a cryptocurrency ban. Findings The analysis shows that banning cryptocurrencies did not affect the returns of stock markets in any of the countries studied, indicating that the cryptocurrency market and stock markets are decoupled from each other, or the ban was not effectively implemented. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first to explore the potential spillover effect of a cryptocurrency ban on stock markets. It also bridges two strands of literature: the relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, and the impact of cryptocurrency regulation on their returns.

How does an innovative decision-making scheme affect the high-quality economic development driven by green finance and higher education?

This research examines the various elements that contribute to the achievement of high-quality economic development (HQED) in China. Specifically, it explores the influence of several major indices, such as the Green Finance Index, Energy Development Index, Higher Education, Technology Market Environment, and Human Capital. In this study, we utilize a Spatial Durbin Model to examine the interdependencies and spatial linkages between various variables, and their combined impact on China's efforts towards achieving HQED. The Green Finance Index serves as an indicator of a nation's dedication to the implementation of financially sustainable practices and investments that align with environmental objectives. The Energy Development Index assesses the extent to which the energy sector contributes to both economic growth and sustainability. The significance of education and skill development in promoting economic advancement is underscored by Higher Education and Human Capital measures. The Technology Market Environment Index examines the impact of the innovation ecosystem on fostering economic growth. The empirical analysis in our study utilizes extensive data sets collected from 30 provinces and regions throughout China. In this study, we analyze the spatial and temporal interactions of the indices, considering the potential spillover effects from adjacent locations. The findings offer significant contributions to understanding the intricate interconnections among green financing, energy development, education, technology, and human capital, and their combined influence on China's continuous endeavor towards achieving high-quality economic growth. Comprehending the intricate interconnections and spatial dynamics holds paramount importance for policymakers and stakeholders who aspire to foster sustainable, inclusive, and ecologically conscientious economic development in China. The results obtained from this study possess the potential to provide valuable insights for evidence-based policy decisions and strategies aimed at promoting the nation's pursuit of HQED objectives.

The Potential Pro-Environmental Behavior Spillover Effects of Specialization in Environmentally Responsible Outdoor Recreation

Outdoor recreationists represent a key population to educate for pro-environmental behavior (PEB). Given that previous research has found a mixed relationship between outdoor recreation and PEB, this research merges several concepts to better understand the social psychological nuances of this relationship. Specifically, this study explores how specialization regarding environmentally responsible outdoor recreation is related to other PEBs through a behavioral spillover framework. A correlational structural equation model was utilized to test this framework within a merged population of individuals from the Leave No Trace organization and general United States citizens. The results suggested that traditional behavioral spillover dynamics held for private PEBs but not public PEBs. However, recreation specialization was significantly related to both PEB types. These results suggest that the current behavioral spillover theory may only explain the relationship between some PEBs. Furthermore, environmentally responsible outdoor recreation specialization may be a promising pathway toward a spillover into encouraging private and public PEBs.

Social protection, community participation and state‐citizen relations: Evidence from a cash transfer program in south‐central Somalia

AbstractWe investigate whether social protection programs can increase participation in community‐driven development programs and examine how this affects state‐citizen relations. Using a randomized controlled trial in south‐central Somalia, we study the impacts of one‐time unconditional cash transfers to vulnerable households that were specifically designed to encourage participation in community development. While the cash transfer is relatively small as a share of annual household expenditure, it is more than sufficient to cover households' anticipated community development contributions. The transfers were funded by an NGO but delivered through state institutions. We collect survey data before and after the intervention with almost 600 individuals eligible to receive cash transfers. We find no substantial differences in participation in community development projects for cash transfer recipient households relative to non‐recipient households. However, we do find positive impacts of the cash transfers on citizen perceptions of clan elders and the local government. Our findings suggest that relatively small social protection interventions may face challenges in increasing vulnerable households' participation in community development and decision‐making, while also highlighting potential positive spillover effects for state‐citizen relations and beliefs about the capacity of local institutions where states institutions are involved in program delivery, even if they do not finance the program.

The Effect of Natural Disasters on Hotel Demand, Supply and Labour Markets: Evidence from the La Palma Volcano Eruption

Natural disasters are an important deterrent factor for tourism activities from both supply and demand perspectives. This paper studies the short-term effect of a volcano eruption on hotel demand, supply and hospitality labour in La Palma (Spain), an island economy that is highly dependent on the tourism sector. Based on a monthly panel dataset, we employ seemingly unrelated difference-in-differences (SUR-DiD) to identify the distinct responses of these three outcomes both during and post eruption. We are particularly interested in examining the asymmetry in their elasticities to the shock, which serve as indicators of disaster resilience. Potential spillover effects on nearby islands are also examined. We find that the eruption resulted in significant yet asymmetrical drops in international demand, number of hotels opened, and hospitality workers hired. Our findings inform about the resilience of the tourism industry to natural disasters, offering relevant insights about heterogeneous effects depending on exposure to the event.

The Impact of US-CN Audit Agreement on US-listed Chinese Companies and Its US Peers

This paper examines the US-CN Audit Agreements influences on investors reactions towards US-listed Chinese companies and the potential spillover effect on US domestic listed companies with the same auditors that Chinese companies have. The sample consists of 282 Chinese US-listed companies and 3986 U.S. companies with the same auditors as those Chinese companies. We then compare the average stock return of U.S.-listed Chinese companies and the U.S. companies based on the sample period for the stock return data begins from July 27, 2022, to Aug 29, 2022. By using T-test separately, we found that U.S. companies have higher average stock returns in the previous 21-days period, and in the 3-day announcement window, the difference in stock returns between U.S.-listed Chinese companies and U.S. companies is not material. Therefore, we document that although investors become so alarmed by the publication of the US-China Audit Agreement that stock returns suffer. As a result, the success of US-China audit cooperation will increase investor confidence and help Chinese companies' stock returns and mitigate the negative effects.

Potential diversification benefits: A comparative study of Islamic and conventional stock market indexes

The study aims to contribute to the better understanding of potential diversification benefits for US and its major trading partners, namely Canada, Japan, and the UK, across both Islamic and conventional indexes. We applied a Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC) model to examine the dynamic correlation and volatility of returns during 2001–2017. The findings put in evidence that, unlike Canadian peers, Japanese indexes exhibit a low dynamic correlation with US indexes, which ultimately suggests diversification opportunities for US-based investors. Understanding volatilities and correlations patterns through international markets would help investors, policymakers, and market participants to take informed decisions, mitigate risks, and anticipate potential spillover effects.

The climate advisory opinion: A medicine with side-effects?

The Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law in December 2022 requested for an advisory opinion to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) for holding States responsible for failure to protect the marine environment caused by climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. This article first examines the dilemma climate regime is facing. Then the article explores why the advisory opinion can serve as “medicine” by examining the potential positive and negative spillover effects of the advisory opinion from the perspective of both jurisdiction and merits. Just like all medicines have side-effects, the climate advisory opinion brings both challenges or opportunities to current climate negotiations, which the article calls for stakeholders to utilize and proceed carefully and cautiously.

Artificial intelligence-based tokens: Fresh evidence of connectedness with artificial intelligence-based equities

The main focus of this research is to investigate the potential spillover effects between AI-based stocks and tokens by using the quantile connectedness approach developed by Ando et al. (2022). The study aims to investigate both static and dynamic spillovers at the lower and upper tails of the return distribution. AI-based stocks and tokens may have relatively low levels of connectedness, which also varies over time and increases during periods of economic turbulence. In addition, in line with previous work analysing other financial markets and assets, this research finds that the system is more sensitive to the tails of the distribution (i.e., the lower and upper quantiles) than to the median (Q = 0.50). This finding is consistent with expectations, and measures of dynamic connectedness change over time, with the intensity of spillovers increasing at the extremes of the distribution. These results have practical implications for portfolio managers, as they can use the results to adjust their investment portfolios according to the evolution of the dynamic spillovers observed in the system. Overall, this study sheds light on the potential tail spillovers in the AI-based stock and token market and provides valuable insights for investment decisions.

Comparative Analysis of Taliban Regimes to Assess the Global Challenges in Afghanistan: A Realist Perspective

This paper delves into the challenges faced by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, impacting their legitimacy and stability. These challenges encompass economic, humanitarian, and security issues similar to the previous Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001, along with new challenges arising from shifts in global security and politics. With a focus on international relations theory, specifically realism, the paper analyzes neighboring countries' responses to Taliban rule and their implications for regional security. Additionally, it examines potential spillover effects, such as increased terrorism and refugee flows. The paper advocates for a coordinated and multifaceted approach, considering the intricate political, social, and economic factors at play in Afghanistan. Emphasizing Pakistan's role due to its socio-cultural ties with Afghanistan, the paper encourages policymakers to involve governments, corporations, organizations, and international groups. Further research is necessary to develop effective strategies in addressing these challenges and promoting regional security and stability.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Romantic Relationship Satisfaction of Turkish Emerging Adults: The Role of Dyadic Coping

ABSTRACT Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) can negatively affect relationship satisfaction and quality in adulthood. The current study aims to explore the direct and indirect associations of ACEs and romantic relationship satisfaction and examine whether dyadic coping could be a potential protective mechanism against ACEs. Participants (N = 361) were recruited through social media platforms and word of mouth. The study’s eligibility criteria were being 18 to 30 years old, unmarried, and in a committed relationship for at least six months. Participants completed online surveys through Qualtrics. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that ACEs were negatively associated with dyadic coping and relationship satisfaction. Besides, dyadic coping was positively associated with relationship satisfaction. Dyadic coping partially mediated the relationship between ACEs and relationship satisfaction. There were no moderating effects of gender or individual coping style in the final structural equation model. These findings illustrate that adults with a history of ACEs may be less satisfied in romantic relationships, yet they may benefit from dyadic coping strategies. Results have implications for clinical practice, underscoring the utility of assessing ACEs of partners in couples therapy, addressing ACEs and their potential spillover effects in romantic relationships, and promoting dyadic coping skills to improve couples’ relational well-being.

Methyl salicylate improves the effectiveness of the odor-baited trap tree approach for adult plum curculio, Conotrachelus nenuphar (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), monitoring and attract-and-kill.

In commercial apple orchards, the odor-baited trap tree approach involving the synergistic lure composed of benzaldehyde (BEN) and the PC aggregation pheromone grandisoic acid (GA) serves as an effective monitoring tool as well as an attract-and-kill strategy for plum curculio (PC), Conotrachelus nenuphar Herbst. (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), management. However, the relatively high cost of the lure and the degradation of commercial BEN lures by UV light and heat discourage its adoption by growers. Over a 3-yr period, we compared the attractiveness of methyl salicylate (MeSA), either alone or in combination with GA, to plum curculio (PC) with that of the standard combination of BEN + GA. Our main goal was to identify a potential replacement for BEN. Treatment performance was quantified using 2 approaches: (i) unbaited black pyramid traps (2020, 2021) to capture PC adults and (ii) PC oviposition injury (2021, 2022) on apple fruitlets of trap trees and of neighboring trees to assess potential spillover effects. Traps baited with MeSA captured significantly more PCs than unbaited traps. Trap trees baited with a single MeSA lure and 1 GA dispenser attracted a similar number of PCs as trap trees baited with the standard lure composed of 4 BEN lures and 1 GA dispenser based on PC injury. Trap trees baited with MeSA + GA received significantly more PC fruit injury than neighboring trees suggesting no or limited spill-over effects. Our collective findings suggest that MeSA is a replacement for BEN thereby cutting costs of lures by ca. 50% while maintaining trap tree effectiveness.

COVID-19 vaccinations and mental health among U.S. adults: Individual and spillover effects

RationaleThe COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic increases not only in physical illness, but also in mental health symptoms and disorders among U.S. adults. Although the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines dramatically lowered rates of physical illness and death, little is known about the effects of vaccines on mental health. ObjectivesWe assessed both individual and spillover effects of COVID-19 vaccination on mental health disorders, and whether effects of individual vaccination varied based on contextual risks indicated by state infection rates and state vaccination rates. MethodsUsing data from the Household Pulse Survey, we assessed 448,900 adults surveyed within approximately the first six months of the U.S. vaccine rollout (February 3 - August 2, 2021). Coarsened exact matching balanced vaccinated and non-vaccinated participants on demographic and economic characteristics. ResultsLogistic regression analyses found 7% lowered odds of depression among vaccinated individuals, but no significant difference in anxiety. Reflecting potential spillover effects, state vaccination rates predicted lowered odds of anxiety and depression (1% decrease in odds for each additional 1% of the state population vaccinated). Although state COVID-19 infection rates did not moderate effects of individual vaccination on mental health outcomes, significant interactions indicated that effects of individual vaccination on mental health were stronger in contexts of lower state vaccination rates, and links between state vaccination rates and mental health problems were stronger among unvaccinated individuals. ConclusionsResults suggest that COVID-19 vaccinations improved the mental health of adults in the U.S., with lower rates of self-reported mental health disorders both among vaccinated individuals themselves and among other individuals living in the same state, particularly when those individuals were not themselves vaccinated. These direct and spillover effects on mental health expand our understanding of the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination for the wellbeing of adults in the U.S.

What predicts students’ future ICT literacy? Evidence from a large-scale study conducted in different stages of secondary school

Information and communication technology (ICT) literacy is key to solving future societal challenges and to leading an independent and responsible life in an increasingly globalized and digitalized world. Hence, countries around the world have promoted research on students' ICT skills and their inclusion in curricula. Despite these efforts, little is known about what predicts future ICT literacy, and prior research has almost exclusively conducted cross-sectional studies. In the present study, we addressed this gap by using data from a large-scale longitudinal study of 6810 students in 311 schools from Germany. These students participated in the National Educational Panel Study over the course of secondary school (in Grades 6, 9, and 12). We were particularly interested in investigating potential spillover effects from skills and dispositions that are inherently fostered in school on ICT development. Thus, we considered a rich set of different types of predictors related to the students' social, cultural, demographic, and learning backgrounds; their subject-specific motivation; and the composition of their schools, and we assessed the extent to which these variables explained variation in ICT literacy development at two key stages in the educational system (Grades 9 and 12). Our results indicated that prior ICT literacy was the most important predictor of future ICT literacy but more so for the development between Grades 9 and 12. In addition, variables related to the students' learning backgrounds, followed by variables related to the composition of their schools and students' subject-specific motivation explained future ICT literacy. Overall, the predictors explained between 49% and 67% of the variation in future ICT literacy. Our longitudinal findings suggest that the learning environment and students’ skills and dispositions are crucial for understanding ICT development and are indicative of the deliberate design of ICT interventions.

Examining the effect of Medicaid expansion on early detection of head and neck cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx by HPV-type and generosity of dental benefits.

Over a decade of evidence supports the claim that increased access to insurance through Medicaid expansions improves early detection of cancer. Yet, evidence linking Medicaid expansions to early detection of head and neck cancers (HNC) of the oral cavity and pharynx, specifically, may be limited by the lack of attention to Human Papillomavirus (HPV) etiology, generosity of dental coverage, and valid inference analyzing state cancer registry data. This studyreexamined the effect of Medicaid expansion on early detection of HPV+/- HNC in states offering extensive dental benefits. Specialized data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program was analyzed to account for, previously unmeasurable, differential detection patterns of HNCs associated with HPV. Then, to identify the effect of increasing Medicaid eligibility on staging patterns in states offering extensive benefits amidst potentially non-common trends between states, a "Triple Differences" design identifies the differential effect of Medicaid Expansion (with dental coverage) on HPV-negative HNCs relative to the change in HPV-positive HNCs. For valid inference analyzing a small number of state clusters (12) in cancer registry data, each regression model applies a Wild Cluster Bootstrap. Expanding Medicaid eligibility was found to be associated with a decrease in the proportion of distant-stage diagnoses of HPV(-) HNCs, but only among states which increased Medicaid dental generosity at the time of Medicaid expansion. These results suggest that adding extensive Medicaid dental benefits was the primary mechanism impacting HNC detection. This study highlights the potential positive spillover effects of policies which increase access to public dental coverage for low-income adults, while also showing the limitation of access to dental services for improving early detection of HPV+ HNCs.

The environmental cost of FDI and spatial implications of CO2 emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study endeavors to investigate the environmental cost of FDI inflows in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region over the period of 2006 to 2020. There are two opposing theories about how FDI impacts the environment, namely, the pollution halo hypothesis (PHH) and the pollution haven hypothesis (PH). Given the SSA region's poor environmental performance and potential spatial spillover effects on neighboring nations, the study underlines the necessity to look into the pollution hypotheses in theregion. The examination is carried out through non-spatial and spatial panel data econometric approaches. The empirical findings provide evidence that an increase in FDI inflow by 1% in SSA is positively associated with increasing levels of CO2 emissions by 0.03% on average, thus validating the notion of a pollution haven in the region. Furthermore, the study reveals that the environmental spillovers of CO2 emissions are not confined to the host country alone, but also extend to neighboring nations. Other key determinants of CO2 emissions, including GDP, population, and urbanization, were also found to be positively linked to CO2 emissions, whereas the use of renewable energy resources was found to have a mitigating effect. The empirical findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the SSA region. These insights highlight the importance of the adoption of renewable energy sources and enacting regulatory measures to monitor the environmental cost of FDI, with the aim of mitigating the deleterious consequences of CO2 emissions, not only in the host nation but also in the neighboring nations.

Active imitation or passive reaction: research on the peer effect on trade credit

PurposeUsing a sample of manufacturing firms listed in China between 2007 and 2019, first, this paper aims to examine whether peer firms influence corporate trade credit supply. Next, the authors examine the channels through which peer firms influence corporate trade credit supply by testing the predictions of rivalry and information theories. Furthermore, the authors examine the heterogeneity of the industry peer effect on corporate trade credit supply. Finally, the authors examine the economic consequences of the industry peer effect on corporate trade credit supply.Design/methodology/approachThe sample includes all manufacturing firms listed on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen securities exchanges for the sample period from 2007 to 2019, and the data come from the China Stock Market & Accounting Research database. The authors use the fixed effects method to examine the industry peer effect on trade credit supply. The results are robust to a series of robustness tests. To address the potential endogeneity problem, the authors adopt appropriate instruments by estimating instrumental variable models (two-stage least square). The authors use Heckman’s two-stage model to mitigate the sample selection bias.FindingsThe authors provide strong empirical evidence showing that the industry peer effect on trade credit supply exists in the manufacturing sector. It is also found that both competitive rivalry-based and information-based theories can provide explanations of the industry peer effect on trade credit supply. This process is both active imitation and passive reaction. Additional analysis suggests that the industry peer effect on trade credit supply is more pronounced for state-owned firms, firms with low customer concentration and firms with high geographical proximity. The amplification effect and spillover effect are the economic consequences of the industry peer effect on trade credit supply. In other words, the trade credit supply based on peer effect will not only increase the liquidity risk of the firm per se but also induce and increase the liquidity risk of the industry.Originality/valueThe study makes some important contributions. First, the authors find robust evidence that peer firms’ trade credit supply is an important factor in explaining corporate trade credit supply, which extends the literature by connecting the firm’s trade credit supply with the peer effect. Second, the study provides a new micro-perspective for understanding that firms use trade credit supply as a tool of competition, which proves the importance of rivals’ decision-making as a determinant of corporate decisions. Third, the authors examine the industry peer effect on trade credit supply, which not only helps to guide firms to pay more attention to the potential risk and spillover effects of the trade credit supply decision-making relevance but also helps to clarify the industry interaction phenomenon of corporate decision-making behavior. It is an important practical significance to play a role as a bridge between the microlevel of the firm and the meso-level of the industry. Finally, the study provides inspiration for the formulation of industry norms and policies.

Intergenerational spillover effects of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review and future directions for research

BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence individuals who do not receive the intervention but who are connected in some way to the person who does. Relatively little is known, however, about...

A Smartphone Intervention to Promote a Sustainable Healthy Diet: Protocol for a Pilot Study.

Changing current dietary patterns into sustainable healthy diets (ie, healthy diets with low environmental impact and socioeconomic fairness) is urgent. So far, few eating behavior change interventions have addressed all the dimensions of sustainable healthy diets at once and used cutting-edge methods from the field of digital health behavior change. The primary objectives of this pilot study were to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of an individual behavior change intervention toward the adoption of a more environmentally sustainable healthy diet as a whole and changes in specific relevant food groups, food waste, and obtaining food from fair sources. The secondary objectives included the identification of mechanisms of action that potentially mediate the effect of the intervention on behaviors, identification of potential spillover effects and covariations among different food outcomes, and identification of the role of socioeconomic status in behavior changes. We will run a series of ABA n-of-1 trials over a year, with the first A phase corresponding to a 2-week baseline evaluation, the B phase to a 22-week intervention, and the second A phase to a 24-week postintervention follow-up. We plan to enroll 21 participants from low, middle, and high socioeconomic statuses, with 7 from each socioeconomic group. The intervention will involve sending text messages and providing brief individualized web-based feedback sessions based on regular app-based assessments of eating behavior. The text messages will contain brief educational messages on human health and the environmental and socioeconomic effects of dietary choices; motivational messages to encourage the adoption of sustainable healthy diets by participants, providing tips to achieve their own behavioral goals; or links to recipes. Both quantitative and qualitative data will be collected. Quantitative data (eg, on eating behaviors and motivation) will be collected through self-reported questionnaires on several weekly bursts spread through the study. Qualitative data will be collected through 3 individual semistructured interviews before the intervention period, at the end of the intervention period, and at the end of the study. Analyses will be performed at both the individual and group levels depending on the outcome and objective. The first participants were recruited in October 2022. The final results are expected by October 2023. The results of this pilot study will be useful for designing future larger interventions on individual behavior change for sustainable healthy diets. PRR1-10.2196/41443.