Charcoal rot, caused by Macrophomina phaseolina (Mp), is the most common and the most important root and stalk rot disease of sorghum. Survey data for sorghum charcoal rot disease and pathogen loads were analysed to assess the potential of PREDICTA®B as a disease risk management decision tool. The pathogen, at sowing and pre-harvest, was found to be strongly correlated. The results showed a strong quadratic relationship between the incidence of charcoal rot and the percent of lodging, supporting the notion that charcoal rot is one of the causative agents in sorghum lodging. An Mp load of 2.5 k copies per gram of soil on a log10 scale was established as an indicator of the high incidence of charcoal rot, and its associated risk of serious lodging can be used as a management decision tool. Rainfall and location were also shown to influence lodging rates. Some varieties of sorghum were found to be less susceptible to charcoal rot than others. This study found that disease incidence was a better predictor of damage than the disease rating index. As set by PREDICTA®B, at low or non-detectable levels of Mp, the risk of disease is low. With high levels of Mp, the incidence and severity of disease depend on the susceptibility of the variety and the conduciveness of the environment. High levels of Mp do not mean that disease will occur, but that there is a high risk if the conditions are favourable for disease development. While this study has provided much useful information, it has highlighted the need for further data collection to be able to develop reliable disease risk categories based on test results and its associated yield loss.