European Potential Research Articles

Climatic warming and crop potential in Europe: Prospects and uncertainties

Climatic warming due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to lead to largescale shifts in the pattern of agricultural potential. This article reports the results of a study to Investigate the broad-scale sensitivity of crop potential to climatic change in Europe. A simple agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), has been related to the minimum requirements for the successful cultivation of three crops: grain maize, sunflower and soya bean. With the aid of a computer mapping system, ETS has been mapped across Europe on the basis of present climate and of scenarios of future climate. In this way, the effects of changes in climate can be expressed as spatial shifts in the limits of crop potential, and the uncertainities in the estimates can be interpreted in terms of the likelihood of particular regions becoming climatically suitable for crop cultivation. The estimates point to a considerable dislocation of agricultural potential occurring over a matter of only several decades.

Climatic change and future agroclimatic potential in Europe

AbstractIn this paper, initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad‐scale sensitivity of agriculture to climatic change in Europe. The study employs an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), to relate temperature patterns to the cultivable limits of grain maize (Zea mays). A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present‐day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation.The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1°C (within the present‐day range of interannual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany and northern Poland to potential maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. These represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km °C−1 in western Europe and 250–400 km °C−1 in eastern Europe. Comparison of these shifts with those estimated on the basis of general circulation model (GCM) projections of future temperatures suggests that a 1°C warming will be achieved well before the time the global climate responds fully to an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, possibly as early as 2010. Shifts comparable with those for a 4°C warming are achieved under all the GCM scenarios of doubled CO2, occurring perhaps as soon as 2050 if the current growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this (high) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter.Such shifts would offer new opportunities for farmers in different regions of northern Europe. However, given the possible rapidity of the shifts, in order for these opportunities to be exploited successfully immediate attention should be directed towards more detailed assessments of crop potential in regions identified as currently marginal for grain maize.

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN EUROPE†

Abstract Renewable energy sources are potentially capable of providing a significant fraction of Europe's energy needs in the 21st century. The development of renewable energy is desirable for two main reasons. First, from the geopolitical standpoint, the future concentration of the world's oil resources in the Middle East involves the risks inherent in an increasing dependence on these resources. Secondly, there is widespread concern about the environmental effects of conventional energy consumption and in particular global warming. Since renewable energy resources are well distributed over the whole earth, they offer the possibility of a global response to global change, unlike many other energy sources. For Europe, the most important renewable sources are biomass, wind, photovoltaics, small hydro, tidal power and solar buildings. Wave power has attracted less attention so far. Solar thermal power has an insignificant potential in Europe. There is an important public consensus for a stronger development...

Apple growing potentials in Europe. 3. Northern limits.

The northern production limits were determined, on the basis of prevailing temperatures, for 4 cultivars: White Transparent (very early), Cox's Orange Pippin (mid-season), Golden Delicious (late) and Granny Smith (very late). A model was developed incorporating temperatures recorded at the northernmost fruit research station (Blangstedgard, Denmark, 55 degrees 40' N) with available data on flowering, harvesting and yields. This was later tested using temperature data from numerous sites in different countries; these are tabulated and a map shows the different limits for each cultivar. [For part 2 see Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science (1988) 33, 45-52.] (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

Offshore Outlook: the European Side

The offshore hydrocarbon potential of Europe was fully revealed during the 1970s by various major discoveries which, after the first oil shock in 1973 and in the light of the high energy consumption in this zone, were a major asset in the new equilibria that would be found between producing and consuming countries. The offshore potential of Europe is concentrated in two zones: the North Sea and the Mediterranean. The North Sea, with the particularly harsh operating conditions, has quickly given rise to what can today be qualified as a new engineering state-of-the-art. At the same time, developments in the Mediterranean have brought a demonstration of entirely original and profitable petroleum achievements. For the future and despite current economic uncertainties, the outlook for European offshore development remain particularly attractive, obviously with regard to oil, but also, and more and more so, from the standpoint of natural gas.

Managing high potentials in Europe: Some cross-cultural findings

How do European firms define high-potential employees, how do they identify and select them, how do they develop them, what problems arise in managing them, and are there differences in different European countries? In 1985, the author put these five questions to 60 companies in France, Germany, Britain, Sweden and Switzerland, and in this article he reports on the methods of assessment and evaluation, training and development practices on and off the job, and offers some insights into the corporate skulduggery employed by supervisors trying to retain high performing subordinates, or create the impression that non-high performers should be promoted as if they were high performers'. If managing high performers is not without problems, these do vary from one country to another in relation to cultural factors. These aspects are analysed in detail, with the conclusion that they are the dominant influence on differences in practice in managing high performance.

Apple growing potentials in Europe. 2. Flowering dates.

A method of calculating flowering dates of apple in Europe is presented, based on dates of fulfilment of the cold requirement, temperature sums and minimum temperature per month. Calculated and reported dates were compared. With the exception of the most southern part of the growing area an acceptable agreement was found. Differences between both values were less than 5 days in 65% of the cases, which is less than 2.5-5% of the duration of the period that apples are hanging on the trees. [For part 1 see Horticultural Abstracts 50, 2376.] (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

Apple growing potentials in Europe. 1. The fulfilment of the cold requirement of the apple tree.

Data from over 600 weather stations in Europe were used to calculate the number of hours with temperatures below 7 deg C. Lists are given of 12 places in southern Europe in which the number of hours below 7 deg is less than 1000, and of 119 places in which 1000 h below 7 deg (the minimum cold requirement of apple trees) is reached, with dates. It is concluded that most apple cvs would be unsuitable for growing south of a line dividing the zones. North of that line the dates on which the cold requirements were reached varied between 17 November and 12 March. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

Tulip bulb production potentials in Europe.

The development of tulip growing in Europe (particularly the Netherlands, the UK and Denmark) is discussed in relation to the growth cycle and effects of temperature and radiation. Maps are presented for the dates of shoot emergence (earliness of spring), leaf senescence (earliness of bulb ripening), potential production areas and relative aberrations. The present tulip-producing regions are not distributed evenly over the most suitable growing areas but are concentrated in eastern England and the western part of the Netherlands, indicating that other factors in addition to the growing requirements considered here are decisive. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)