Potential Impact Of Global Warming Research Articles

Climatological features of future MCSs over the Canadian Prairies using convection-permitting climate models

This study explores the potential effects of global warming on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) initiation and duration in the Canadian Prairies. By utilizing high-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPCMs), the study examines 15 parameters to identify the most significant factor for predicting future changes, using the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) approach. The results suggest that the frequency of MCSs will significantly increase in the future, with varying initiation and duration patterns between daytime and nighttime. The study highlights Preciptable Water (PW), Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV), and Most Unstable Convective Potential Energy (MUCAPE) as the most significant parameters for long-lived nighttime MCSs, while Relative Humidity at 850 hPa (RH850), PW, and Storm Relative Helicity 0-1 km (SRH1km) are identified as the most significant parameters for long-lived daytime MCSs. The findings are supported by violin plots that show the differences in the distribution of the 15 parameters in the initiation regions of short- and long-lived MCSs. Additionally, this study partially confirms previous research findings, such as the Mountain-plains solenoids, which suggest that increased PW and RH850 in the future are in agreement with increased total precipitation in the northern region. The study emphasizes the importance of utilizing newly released forcing datasets to investigate the potential impact of global warming on MCSs initiation and duration in the Canadian Prairies.

Life cycle environmental and cost assessment of prefabricated components manufacture

Prefabrication is regarded as a pivot for realizing sustainable building construction. Nevertheless, the sustainable manufacture level of prefabricated components remains unclear. To fill this gap, this study analyzed the environmental impact and optimization potential of prefabricated components via a life cycle assessment (LCA) method. Additionally, social and economic cost were assessed through LCA-based life cycle costing method to reveal the sustainability of prefabricated components. Results indicated that prefabrication rates of 50% and 30% could reduce the potential global warming impact by 31.78% and 13.94%, respectively, compared with the conventional construction method. However, prefabricated components production in China generated up to $ 4.35 × 109 social cost, with critical optimization areas focused on the provinces of Shandong and Hubei. By using artificial neural network estimation, 30% replacement of concrete by demolished concrete lumps could reduce potential fossil depletion and social cost by 10%, decreasing 5.08 × 109 kg CO2 eq potential global warming for China. Meanwhile, partial replacement of fuels with refuse-derived fuels and improved steel scrap utilization could contribute to further improving environmental performance.

Temperature thresholds drive the biogeographic pattern of root endophytic fungal diversity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Studying the diversity and distribution of host-associated fungi along the temperature gradient can help us detect the potential impact of global warming on host-microbe interactions. By investigating 55 samples along the temperature gradient, our results demonstrated that temperature thresholds controlled the biogeographic pattern of fungal diversity in the root endosphere. When the mean annual temperature crossed ∼1.40 °C, or the mean temperature of the coldest quarter was over ∼−8.26 °C, the root endophytic fungal OTU richness abruptly decreased. Shared OTU richness between the root endosphere and rhizosphere soil showed similar temperature thresholds. However, the OTU richness of the fungi in the rhizosphere soil had a nonsignificant positive linear relationship with temperature. The asynchrony of alpha diversity in the rhizosphere soil and root endosphere in response to increasing temperature indicated that temperature might regulate the microbial colonization process from the rhizoplane to interior tissue. When the temperature crosses the threshold, the rapid decrease in OTU richness from soil entry to root tissue colonization may lead to a rapid decrease in root OTU richness. We further found that root endophytic fungal OTU richness was more sensitive to temperature increases under drought than non-drought conditions. We also found similar temperature thresholds influencing the root endophytic fungal beta diversity. When the temperature difference between two sampling points crossed an ∼2.2 °C temperature threshold, species replacement sharply decreased, and the species richness difference sharply increased. This investigation highlights that temperature thresholds are very important in shaping variation in the diversity of root endophytic fungi, especially in alpine ecosystems. Furthermore, it provides a preliminary framework for studying host-microbe interactions under global warming.

Use of a fully biobased and non-reprotoxic epoxy polymer and woven hemp fabric to prepare environmentally friendly composite materials with excellent physical properties

In the future, materials will need to be biobased and produced sustainably without compromising mechanical properties. To date, in many cases, the advantages of the bio-origin of the raw material are overridden by the environmental impact of the process. In the present study, we have developed a novel composite material based on woven hemp fabric which reinforce a thermoset polymer produced from birch bark, a low-value forestry byproduct. Results show that this fully biobased composite has specific stiffness and strength equivalent to those of flax fibre-reinforced petroleum-based epoxy composites and slightly lower than glass fibre-reinforced petroleum-based epoxy composites. The sustainability of the material was also evaluated by life-cycle assessment from cradle to gate and showed significantly superior performance with respect to the potential global warming impact than commercial benchmark materials. Furthermore, toxicology studies showed no endocrine disruptive activities. This is an important proof of concept study demonstrating that biobased structural materials can be produced sustainably.

Potential impact of global warming on electricity demand in Niger

Potential impact of global warming on electricity demand in Niger

Potential global warming impact of 1 kW polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell system for residential buildings on operation phase

This study established global warming potential(GWP) emission factors through a life cycle assessment on the operation phases of two different 1 kW polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) systems for residential buildings (NG-PEMFC, fed with hydrogen from natural gas reforming; WE-PEMFC, fed with hydrogen from photovoltaics-powered water electrolyzer). Their effectiveness was also compared with conventional power grid systems in Korea, specifically in the area of greenhouse gas emissions.The operation phases of the NG-PEMFC and the WE-PEMFC were divided into burner, reformer, and stack, and into water electrolysis and stack, respectively. The functional unit of each fuel cell system was defined as 1 kWh of electricity production. In the case of NG-PEMFC, the GWP was 3.72E-01 kg-CO2eq/kWh, the embodied carbon emissions due to using city gas during the life cycle process was about 20.87 %, the carbon emission ratio according to the reformer's combustion burner was 6.07 %, and the direct carbon emission ratio of the air emissions from the reformer was 73.06 %, indicating that the carbon emission from the reformer contributed over 80 % of the total GWP. As for the WE-PEMFC, the GWP was 1.76E-01 kg-CO2eq/kWh, and the embodied carbon emissions from photovoltaic power generation during the life cycle process contributed over 99 % of the total GWP.

Potential Impact of Global Warming on Climate and Streamflow of Adhaim River Basin, Iraq

Global warming induces to increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and plays a crucial role in determining the future trend in climatology and hydrology of a watershed. This paper aims to investigate the implications of global warming on future climate and its consequents on streamflow of the Adhaim River Basin (ARB). For this purpose, the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)-Based models were implemented. The climate and hydrologic records for the period 1990-2019 were used as a Reference Period (RP) and projected to 2080 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and five Global Climate Models (GCMs). The results show that the region of ARB tends to become hotter and drier with an increase in mean temperature by 1.2, 2.9, and 4.6 °C under the considered RCPs, respectively. However, precipitation tends to decrease from 366 mm/y in RP to 320.2, 302, and 300.5 mm/y by 2080 under the considered RCPs. Consequently, the streamflow will decrease to about 28, 26, and 24 m3/s by 2080 under the considered RCPs, respectively, compared with 28.96 m3/s in RP. Therefore, adaptation strategies are highly recommended to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change, and the implications of climate change on groundwater, water demand, and adaptation plans should be investigated in future studies.

Environmental performance analysis of railway infrastructure using life cycle assessment: Selecting pavement projects based on global warming potential impacts

In response to the growing demand for credit to finance railway projects, portfolios of credit options which use criteria aligned with environmental factors have proved to be an attractive solution. The parameters involve, for example, the commitment to reduce the impact on global warming. Although transportation financing already includes environmental covenants, which are focused mainly on operational aspects, such as rolling stocks, this mechanism is still not applied comprehensively in railway infrastructure projects, particularly regarding the track and its foundation. Therefore, this study aims to present a comprehensive life cycle assessment method to analyze railway infrastructure projects' global warming potential impact, through environmental performance analysis. It was accomplished through the use of various materials for the composition of the sub-ballast, considering the subgrade's mechanical behavior under distinct moisture content conditions (optimal and optimal+2%). Compared with references values from the literature review (13.40–22.37 tCO2e/km/year), the results indicate that the sub-ballast without the use of alternative materials, specifically 19.88 tCO2eq/km/year, is the best choice. This considering a minor potential global warming impact when the moisture content is optimal, even considering differences in maintenance frequency during the assessed period, which is 200 years. Regarding the subgrade with moisture content above the optimal level, the use of a soil–cement mixture to increase the sub-ballast's support capacity, representing 4,481 tCO2eq, is the best choice when life cycle assessment aspects are considered. Finally, materials originating from bitumen demonstrate the highest potential global warming effects, been hot mix asphalt the option that shows the higher contribution– 48.69 tCO2eq/km/year. However, it is worth mentioning this last engineering solution is used to make the subgrade impermeable, which could be an interesting choice in situations in which the moisture content level is higher than that used in this study. • Comparative LCA for various sub-ballast is performed (construction & maintenance). • Sensibility assessed varying materials and subgrade moisture content, based on GWP. • For optimal moisture content, gravel soil without improvements performed better. • Under non-optimal moisture content, soil-cement seems to be the best choice. • For floods, HMA could be a feasible solution since it impermeabilizes the subgrade.

Environmental Impact Assessment of Brick Production in Indonesia

Brick is one of the building materials commonly used in building construction materials. The production activities of the brick industry have a lot of potential that can cause problems in the environment such as water, soil and air pollution. The purpose of this study is to analyze the potential environmental impacts in the form of emissions and waste from brick production activities by applying the LCA method to the brick production process and to identify the inputs and outputs of the brick production process. To gain a deep understanding, a small enterprise of brick manufacturer was selected as a case study. The results of this study indicate that electricity and cement are the biggest causes of each category of impact. The category of potential global warming impact is the largest with a total of 6.95 kg CO2-eq. Although in all categories the percentages are more or less the same. This happens because the brick production process which almost entirely uses electrical energy in the production process and also the use of cement in large quantities has a major impact on the environmental impact.

Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables

We estimated the potential impact of Global Warming on the species richness of Iberian butterflies. First, we determined the grid size that maximized the balance between geographic resolution, area coverage and environmental representativeness. Contemporary richness was modelled in several alternative ways that differed in how sampling effort was controlled for, and in whether the non-climatic variables (physiography, lithology, position) were incorporated. The results were extrapolated to four WorldClim scenarios. Richness loss is to be expected for at least 70% of the area, with forecasts from the combined models being only slightly more optimistic than those from the purely climatic ones. Overall, the most intense losses are predicted for areas of highest contemporary species richness, while the potential slightly positive or nearly neutral changes would most often concentrate in cells of low to moderate present richness. The environmental determinants of richness might not be uniform across the geographical range of sampling effort, suggesting the need of additional data from the least intensively surveyed areas.Implications for insect conservationRe-assessing richness and its environmental determinants in the area proves necessary for more detailed forecasts of the climate-driven changes in butterfly species richness. The expected future conditions imply widespread losses of regional richness, even under the less severe scenarios. Since the negative impact of warming is expected to be extensive, long term conservation plans should concentrate in the present protected areas of highest richness as these are most likely to represent the last refuges for mountain species.

A Case Study of the Snow Leopard in Sanjiangyuan National Park Boundaries regarding Park Boundary Divergence

This paper uses remote sensing data from the Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP) to explore the divergence between the boundaries of national parks and the distribution of natural habitats. Results are used to argue that these discrepancies evolve along with the potential impact of global warming. Using the example of the habitat change of snow leopards and the conflicts between local people and snow leopards, we reflect on the consequences of this divergence. Results show that divergence between the political boundaries and natural habitats as well as the consequent influence on the living conditions of local people are strikingly visible, and the effects of global warming on such conflicts are apparent. The authors conclude that both notions of ‘political boundaries’ and ‘natural habitats’ are expected to come together as the SNP region is spatially configured, while ‘global warming’ seems to be relevant as an essential reference when delimiting the region in the future. Finally, the proposal for the establishment of cooperative conservation areas is presented, emphasizing the role of cooperative governance in/around national parks.

Life Cycle Assessment Applied to Railway Infrastructure: A Proposed Method

Based on mitigation strategies for the rational use of resources and conscious consumption of inputs, it is important to develop tools that allow the measurement of environmental impacts and greenhouse gas emissions, for better decision-making in the planning of railway infrastructure activities. Therefore, this article presents a method for evaluating railway infrastructure projects, having as a parameter the potential impact of global warming when different materials are used in the sub-ballast, to improve the support capacity of the railway pavement. As a technical criterion for evaluation, the mechanical behavior of the subgrade was considered in a condition of moisture above the optimal level, with a sub-ballast composed of sandy material as a baseline for comparison. The results, considering the environmental impact, clearly indicated that the use of a soil-cement mixture in the sub-ballast was the best option. Furthermore, even in the face of more frequent renovation of the permanent way, the reference scenario was more attractive than those with use of a combination of soil-emulsion and hot mix asphalt.

Could reactive MgO cement be a green solution? The effect of CO2 mineralization and manufacturing route on the potential global warming impact

Reactive MgO (rMgO) is considered a promising alternative to Portland cement (PC), because its capacity to mineralize carbon dioxide (CO2) can be used to reduce the life cycle global warming intensity (GWI) of concrete. However, the greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted during the manufacture of rMgO may outshine its environmental benefits of CO2 mineralization. The objective of this study is to compare the life cycle GWI of traditional PC binder to rMgO binder and rMgO-PC blended binder systems. The life cycle assessment (LCA) considers the actual amount of CO2 mineralized by the binders and their 28-day compressive strength, as well as different manufacturing routes (dry and wet) and energy sources (fossil fuels and electricity) to produce rMgO. Based on these variables, best- and worst-case scenarios were identified and analyzed. The results reveal that the quantity of CO2 stored in hydrated Mg carbonates increases as the rMgO replacement level increases, while the quantity of CO2 stored in Mg-calcite decreases. Mortar with rMgO-PC as binder exhibits a lower net GWI per unit of strength than mortars with either 100% PC or 100% rMgO as binder in the best-case scenarios. Using low carbon energy sources (such as renewables and nuclear) for rMgO production and on-site waste CO2 would significantly reduce the overall GHG emissions (by 82%). In the optimal situation, a net GWI reduction of almost 50% per unit of strength can be achieved by the rMgO-PC mortar. The wet route to produce rMgO looks particularly promising for a future decarbonized construction sector since no CO2 is chemically released during its manufacture. The properties and GWI of concrete containing rMgO carbonated in flowing CO2-rich gas warrant future study.

A mathematical model applied to investigate the potential impact of global warming on marine ecosystems

A mathematical model with time-varying parameters is newly proposed to describe the potential effects of rapid global warming on marine ecosystems. The time-varying parameters are assumed to vary in time, for example, environmental factors or a change in marine organisms. The existence of the proposed model is verified, as well as the stability of each equilibrium point is investigated. Beside, simulations, as well as a case study, are also carried out to justify the findings of this study comparing with others. It is found that global warming, because of the rapid concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), is leading marine ecosystems to an imbalanced situation by reducing significantly the marine plankton and fishery resources. Moreover, it is shown that if the density of marine plankton or its ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) can be increased, it can improve marine fishery resources by reducing global warming. Beside, this study could explain how marine ecosystems may change in the future as a result of rapid global warming. This study predicts that if the present situation of rapid global warming continues for the next 50 years unabated, it can damage marine ecosystems especially fishery resources in the long run. Overall, this study establishes a mathematical relationship between the environment and marine ecosystems that could contribute to environmental and fisheries management.

Potential Impact of Global Warming on Virus Propagation in Infected Plants and Agricultural Productivity.

The increasing pace of global warming and climate instability will challenge the management of pests and diseases of cultivated plants. Several reports have shown that increases in environmental temperature can enhance the cell-to-cell and systemic propagation of viruses within their infected hosts. These observations suggest that earlier and longer periods of warmer weather may cause important changes in the interaction between viruses and their host’s plants, thus posing risks of new viral diseases and outbreaks in agriculture and the wild. As viruses target plasmodesmata (PD) for cell-to-cell spread, these cell wall pores may play yet unknown roles in the temperature-sensitive regulation of intercellular communication and virus infection. Understanding the temperature-sensitive mechanisms in plant-virus interactions will provide important knowledge for protecting crops against diseases in a warmer climate.

Potential impact of global warming on wind power production in Central Asia

AbstractGlobal warming is affecting the Earth's surface temperature and consequently the intensity of near‐surface airstreams and wind power potential in many regions. Conversely, global wind power installed capacity is continuously growing during the last years. The economic viability and sustainability of centralized wind projects relies heavily on wind resources, efficient technologies, and an attractive and dynamic Feed‐in‐Tariff (FIT). Therefore, this study assesses the potential effect of global warming on the life‐cycle techno‐economic viability of future wind power projects in Central Asia, specifically in Kazakhstan. Hence, the Ereymentau Wind Power Plant (WPP) in the Northern region of Kazakhstan was selected as case study. Historic data showed that monthly averaged wind speed and ambient pressure can be treated as statistically stationary, and only the air density drop due to temperature increase of 0.2°C per decade is assumed in the present study. Our results predict a reduction in Net Present Value, Benefit–Cost Ratio, and Internal Rate of Return of 29 million KZT, of 0.0015, and 0.03%, respectively, in the lifetime of Ereymentau WPP. Moreover, an Equity payback increase of 0.4 years and a drop of 987 tCO2e in GHG emission reductions are projected. Consequently, our results indicate that global warming, despite of being a global problem of significance, would have a negligible impact in ongoing plans to develop the wind potential in Northern regions of Eurasian countries sharing similar conditions to those present in Ereymentau‐Kazakhstan.

Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Hydrologic Extremes of Upper Blue Nile River Basin

AbstractThe potential global warming impact on the extreme and mean streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) River Basin was projected for the 2050s and 2080s by three hydrological models [Nedbor-Af...

Climate change and ageing in ectotherms.

Human activity is changing climatic conditions at an unprecedented rate. The impact of these changes may be especially acute on ectotherms since they have limited capacities to use metabolic heat to maintain their body temperature. An increase in temperature is likely to increase the growth rate of ectothermic animals, and may also induce thermal stress via increased exposure to heat waves. Fast growth and thermal stress are metabolically demanding, and both factors can increase oxidative damage to essential biomolecules, accelerating the rate of ageing. Here, we explore the potential impact of global warming on ectotherm ageing through its effects on reactive oxygen species production, oxidative damage, and telomere shortening, at the individual and intergenerational levels. Most evidence derives primarily from vertebrates, although the concepts are broadly applicable to invertebrates. We also discuss candidate mechanisms that could buffer ectotherms from the potentially negative consequences of climate change on ageing. Finally, we suggest some potential applications of the study of ageing mechanisms for the implementation of conservation actions. We find a clear need for more ecological, biogeographical, and evolutionary studies on the impact of global climate change on patterns of ageing rates in wild populations of ectotherms facing warming conditions. Understanding the impact of warming on animal life histories, and on ageing in particular, needs to be incorporated into the design of measures to preserve biodiversity to improve their effectiveness.

Heat stress effects on sexual reproductive processes of a threatened halophyte

Sexual reproduction, a critical life history process in plants, can be altered by heat stress derived from global warming. Sexual reproduction increases genetic diversity, and the ability of plants to respond to environmental changes and dispersal. The capacity for these responses is especially relevant as plants are exposed to rising environmental stress levels imposed by climate change. We investigated the influence of environmental factors that impose physiological stress that may affect the fruit set of Spartina maritima, the sole native African and European cordgrass species. To achieve our objective, we acquired locally recorded air temperatures and tidal amplitude projections. Within population sites, we measured sedimentary conditions (pH, redox potential and electrical conductivity), and the phenological stage of S. maritima inflorescences, spikelets with non-exserted stamens and caryopses produced throughout its 10-week flowering period. Fruit set decreased as flowering period advanced, and as air temperatures and the proportion of spikelets with non-exserted stamens increased. Fruit set decreased with increased sediment anoxia. The proportion of reabsorbed caryopses increased with high air temperatures during the female phase of the inflorescence, and with higher tidal amplitudes during the male phase. These environmental stress factors could terminate caryopsis development that had commenced. Our results point to a severe potential impact of global warming on the reproductive process of native S. maritima. Mitigation of global warming will be essential to maintain population persistence and support conservation and recovery of this halophyte that provides important ecosystem services in salt marshes.

South African log resource availability and potential environmental impact of timber construction

We investigated the South African log resource availability and the potential global warming impact of an increasing wood-based residential building market. We have shown that, with the use of wood resources currently exported as chips, as well as planting trees in areas that have been earmarked for afforestation, a sustainable residential building market, where all constructions are wood-based, is possible. However, in the short term, imports of wooden building components might be necessary if rapid growth in woodbased building occurs. Basic modelling analyses show that if the market share of wood-based buildings increases to 20% of new constructions, the embodied energy and global warming potential of the residential building sector could decrease by 4.9%. If all new constructions were wood based, the total embodied energy and global warming potential of the residential building sector could decrease by up to 30%.
 Significance:
 
 A novel finding of this paper is that sufficient local log resource options exist to realise a sustainable all-wood residential construction market in South Africa.
 The likely implications in terms of embodied energy and potential global warming impact of using wood-based materials for residential buildings compared to conventional brick and mortar or reinforced concrete buildings were also analysed and found to be favourable.