Potential Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Modelling of potential impact of climate change on water regime and channel processes in the river Lena near city Yakutsk: possibilities and limitations

Modelling of potential impact of climate change on water regime and channel processes in the river Lena near city Yakutsk: possibilities and limitations

European tourism demand in the face of climate change: Asymmetric impacts, demand reallocation, and deseasonalisation strategies

Abstract The European tourism industry, a significant contributor to employment and income, is under threat due to climate change. This study, using data from 1315 European regions and considering a tourism-specific climate index and tourism typologies, examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand across the continent under four warming scenarios. We find that climate change impacts in Europe will be highly asymmetrical across regions and seasons, resulting in significant reallocations of tourism demand in space and time across all warming scenarios. A clear north-south pattern in tourism demand changes emerges, with northern regions benefiting and southern regions experiencing significant reductions, particularly under higher warming. Summer demand and coastal areas, where tourism demand is more concentrated, will be particularly affected. We also quantify the deseasonalising efforts necessary to maintain the status quo in the annual demand for tourism, involving relative reductions in summer demand and increases in shoulder and winter seasons.

The climate emergency for rheumatologists: where do we stand?

Climate change and pollution are a major existential threat. Healthcare contributes a noteworthy 4-6% to the total carbon footprint and 5-7% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Environmental pollution and modern lifestyles are also contributing to the increased prevalence of autoimmune and lifestyle-related rheumatic disease. In this review, we assess both the effects of rheumatological practice on climate change and the potential impact of climate change on rheumatological diseases. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate change is linked with the inception or exacerbation of some of the autoimmune and inflammatoryrheumatic diseases (AIRDs) like rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, systemic sclerosis, and reactive arthritis. Furthermore, with rampant industrialization and pollution, emerging infections such as Dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya have emerged as triggers of inflammatory arthritis. Strategies at different levels are proposed to mitigate the effect of the healthcare industry and the community on the environment. The rheumatology community can acknowledge and begin to address the challenges of climate change and health.

Climate change and human economic misery in West Africa: evidence from a tail-dependence model

ABSTRACT Climate change severely impacts Africa due to the high sensitivity of its economic activities to climate variability and its geographical position at lower latitudes, causing around 80% of the damage. The region's vulnerability is exacerbated by structural weaknesses, government failures, and a lack of financial, technical, and institutional capacity to address these effects. This study uses a panel quantile via moment model to examine the potential impact of climate change on human misery in 16 West African countries. The findings reveal that climate change disproportionately increases misery in the most affected countries, linked to their inability to cope with or adapt to the impacts. This suggests that without incorporating climate change into economic policies, West African countries may face increasingly severe welfare challenges. Also, the study finds that emission abatement and climate risk mitigation programs can reduce economic misery by moderating climate change effects. Increases in remittances and government spending are shown to alleviate human economic misery, highlighting the importance of fiscal policies and remittance inflows on economic well-being. Therefore, the study recommends including emission reduction, climate change mitigation, and remittance improvement measures in policies aimed at promoting economic welfare in West Africa.

Evaluation of global warming effects on juvenile rainbow trout: focus on immunohistochemistry and osmoregulation.

The negative effects of global warming also directly affect aquatic populations. Consequences such as evaporation due to chronic temperature increase, increase in salinity, and increase in stock density per unit volume are potential stress factors. While creating the trial design, an attempt was made to simulate the effects of global warming, especially on species living in salty and brackish water biotopes. In this study, changes in the gills of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) acclimated to 0, 20, and 38 ‰ of saline in the laboratory were examined histologically and immunohistochemically and blood serum osmolarity. In addition, the water temperature was changed, and experiments were carried out at 16, 19, and 22°C for each salinity group in parallel with the increase in salinity. However, to simulate the decrease in water volume and intensive stocking due to the potential impact of climate change, the study was carried out using 15 fishes in low-volume aquariums (45 L). Tap water that had been kept for at least 3days was used in the aquariums. To protect the water quality, independent aquariums with sponge filters were used, and since the aim was to keep dissolved oxygen low, no ventilation system other than the sponge filter was used. In order to minimize the deterioration in water quality during the trial, a 15% water change was performed by performing a bottom flush every 4days and water of the same temperature and salinity was added as much as the reduced volume. In addition, since increasing stock density due to temperature increase and water decrease will cause the amount of dissolved oxygen to decrease, pure oxygen was not entered into any tank throughout the experiment, and the concentration was requested to be at a low level (7 ± 0.13mg/L) in all groups. The trials were terminated at the end of the 71st day. Increased serum osmolarity values were observed due to the increase in salinity, and the highest serum osmolarity value was measured at 644mOsm/kg in the 38 ‰ salinity group. Differences between the groups were found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05). It was observed that the number of cells containing Na+/K+-ATPase increased depending on salinity. Also, the number of chloride cells reached the maximum level in the 38 ‰ salinity group. Due to increasing salt levels, an increase in mucus cells, limited onset hyperplasia, aneurysm, lamellar separation, and necrosis were observed in the gill tissue.

Simulation and projection of photovoltaic energy potential over a tropical region using CMIP6 models

The study examines the potential impact of climate change on photovoltaic energy (PV) in Nigeria. Solar radiation and temperature datasets from 13 regional climate models (CMIP6) for 2015–2099 were used to evaluate the photovoltaic energy under moderate (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for near-future (2023–2053), mid-future (2054–2084), and far-future (2084–2099) periods. The precision of the models for the simulation of PV energy was validated with MERRA-2 reference data using the compromise programming index (CPI). Models with the lowest CPI were selected for regional PV energy projections. The findings showed varying numbers of increase and decrease projected changes across the four regions under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the near, mid and far future timescales. Specifically, in the SSP245 scenario, the model with lowest CPI was the CMCC-CESM2 model, it projected a decrease in PV energy in the Sahel (−2.30), an increase in the Guinea Savannah (+2.80), the Rainforest (+1.20) and the coastal region (+4.80) for the far future period (2085–2099). In the SSP585 scenario, the AWI-CM-1.1-MR model projected a decrease in the Sahel region (−4.60), while the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model projected an increase in the Guinea Savannah region (+1.80), and the ACCESS-CM2 model projected an increase in the Rainforest (+10.20) and Coastal regions (+13.20) for the far-future. All values in the parentheses are measured in watts-hour per square-meters. The projected changes in PV energy revealed the need for a regional-specific approach to the planning and implementation of energy transition mix in Nigeria.

Ensemble modeling of the hydrological impacts of climate change: A case study of the Baro River sub-basin, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Given the Baro River basin's high climatic variability and frequent flooding, climate change is expected to exacerbate the existing issues in the region. Three best-performing climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to examine the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Baro River sub-basin. The ensemble of the climate models were bias-corrected for the climate change analysis and a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to examine the impact of the climate changes under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in the future (2031–2060). The climate change scenarios projected an increase in precipitation and temperature under all scenarios. Consequently, annual increase in surface runoff, water yield, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was reported by 30.33% (44.67%), 6% (18.1%,), and 4.49% (6.63%) and decline in groundwater by 13.17% (2.64%) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5), respectively. The rise in temperature and PET could be responsible for the decline in groundwater, while the projected increase in precipitation is expected to enhance surface runoff, perhaps leading to flooding. This requires an improved water management policy that involves all sectors and takes into account the equity for different users.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Biodiversity Changes in Northeast China

Vegetation plays a vital role in connecting ecosystems and climate features. The biodiversity of vegetation is one of the most important features for evaluating ecosystems and it is becoming increasingly important with the threat of global warming. To clarify the effects of climate change on forest biodiversity in Northeast China, time-series NDVI data, meteorological data and land cover data from 2010 to 2021 were acquired, and the forest biodiversity of Northeast China was evaluated. The effect of climate change on forest biodiversity was analyzed, and the results indicated that the forest biodiversity features increased from west to east in Northeast China. There was also an increasing trend from 2010 to 2021, but the rate at which forest biodiversity was changing varied with different forest types of Northeast China, as different climatic factors had a different impact on forest biodiversity in different forest types. Average annual temperature, annual accumulated precipitation, CO2 fertilization and solar radiation were the main factors affecting forest biodiversity changing trends. This research indicated the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems, as it emphasized with evidence that climate change has a catalytic effect on forest biodiversity in Northeast China.

Potential impact of climate change on water productivity and water footprints of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

Agriculture faces a significant problem as a result of the decline in per capita freshwater supply that has been observed over the past couple of decades. Better water management strategies are required in order to make agriculture water secure, environmentally sustainable, and economically attractive. The goal of this study was to develop water productivity scenarios for rice and wheat crops in India's Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) by analysing agricultural production from the perspective of water consumption. To pinpoint the areas that are hydrologically suitable for growing rice and wheat crops under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, water footprints and water productivity have been mapped. The study found that changes in temperature trends under future climate scenarios are probably going to increase crop water requirements, leading to greater water footprints for IGP regions. Water risk hotspots have been identified in the IGP for the rice- and wheat-growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. In order to achieve food security in a sustainable way, attention should be given to increase the water productivity of both crops.

Seasonal Variations in Multiple Sclerosis Relapses in Oman: A Single Tertiary Centre Experience

(1) Background and Aims: The seasonal factors influencing multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses remain elusive. This study aims to investigate the seasonal variation of MS relapses in Oman and compare it globally. (2) Subject and Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on N = 183 Omani MS patients treated at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, a tertiary hospital in Muscat, Oman, over sixteen-year period (2007–2022). Demographic and clinical data of all MS patients were juxtaposed with the monthly weather data during this period, using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques. (3) Results: Among the N = 183 MS patients studied, 508 relapses were recorded during the study period. The average number of relapses per patient was 2.8 (range: 1–15). There were significant seasonal variations in MS relapse rate, with the highest prevalence in the winter months of January and February. However, no correlation was found between MS relapses and other climatic parameters (humidity, temperature, and rainfall). (4) Conclusion: The seasonal patterns of MS relapses in Oman differ from other parts of the world, which the local clinicians should take into account while diagnosing and making management decisions. The potential impact of climate change on the anomalous changes in the seasonality of MS relapses warrants further investigation.

Open-source software integration: A tutorial on species distribution mapping and ecological niche modelling

Over the last decade, access to global data has become increasingly critical for research, allowing insights into diverse biological, environmental and societal questions at a macro scale. Digitisation has greatly enhanced the use of herbarium data in the analysis of species distributions and ecological niche modelling. Yet, sources on modelling and mapping methodology using open-source software is greatly lacking for beginners. We have created a replicable and thorough tutorial to visualise species occurrence data and exploratory analysis that was developed by undergraduates with broad backgrounds and levels of experience. This tutorial integrates the open-source programmes QGIS, MaxEnt and R to develop distribution maps, using bryophytes as a case study, to promote the accessibility of open-source software and remote access learning. This tutorial has already set the foundation for further research into distribution modelling of rare Illinois bryophytes to better understand the potential impact of climate change.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА НА ПАСТБИЩНЫЕ ЭКОСИСТЕМЫ АТЫРАУСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН

Grasslands are an important and vulnerable resource among many ecosystems that occupy a large part of the earth's surface. These ecosystems are constantly exposed to various climatic factors, and climate change is becoming one of the main threats to them. Pastures occupy 9612.9 thousand hectares of the territory of Atyrau oblast, which is 81% of the total territory. These lands are an important source for livestock breeding. In this paper we assessed the potential impact of climate change on pasture ecosystems of Atyrau oblast of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation for 30 years (1992-2022) was investigated using meteorological data. The fluctuations of precipitation amount in vegetation period (April - September) for 1992-2022 were determined. Multiyear series of average annual air temperature and precipitation during vegetation vegetation period were analysed and their predicted cyclic fluctuations for the next two years were modelled. Degradation points of pasture ecosystems were identified by counting 622 points in 1992, 585 points in 2002, 412 points in 2012 and 387 points of former and current cattle stands in 2022 through Google Earth map. The heat and moisture availability of the growing season of pasture plants under climate change was predicted. The results of this study show how increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and management history affect pasture quality, and highlight the important role of vegetation of rangeland ecosystems. The results can be used in the process of establishing effective rangeland management practices, mechanisms for adaptation of rangeland vegetation or ecosystems to climate change.

Modeling the potential distribution and shift of an Algerian endangered endemic species (Cedrus atlantica) under climate change scenarios: Implications for conservation

Algeria is distinguished by its geographical and climatic diversity, which contains a varied flora and endemic species, being recognized as one of the biodiversity hot-spots of the Mediterranean region. Among its endemic species, the renowned Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) is particularly notable as it exclusively grows in the Atlas Mountains. Classified as endangered species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, because of its endemism and also because dramatic declining populations over the past four decades. Forecasting the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of this species might help in devising effective conservation strategies. Under this backdrop, this study aimed to simulate the current distribution of suitable habitat for C. atlantica in Algeria and investigate the influence of climate change on its distribution range by the years 2050, 2070 and 2090. The distribution was modeled using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) based on locality information of 103 occurrence sites of the species and nine different environmental variables. The model showed that annual mean temperature and elevation were the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. atlantica in Algeria. Currently, the total suitable habitats for this species, including both medium and high suitability habitats, cover a total area of 1837 km2, yet its distribution is relatively narrow and fragmented. This area would obviously decrease under all future climate change scenarios, shifting northwestward and to higher elevations, where conditions conducive to the species’ expansion will exist. Our results showed that at lower elevations and latitudes the species is highly prone to the effects of climate change, and they are confronted with an augmented risk of extinction across diverse climatic scenarios. This research provides valuable information for the more effective conservation and sustainable management of C. atlantica in the face of climate change challenges.

Comparison of Mitochondrial Genome Expression Differences among Four Skink Species Distributed at Different Latitudes under Low-Temperature Stress.

Continual climate change strongly influences temperature conditions worldwide, making ectothermic animals as suitable species for studying the potential impact of climate change on global biodiversity. However, the study of how lizards distributed at different latitudes respond to climate change at the transcriptome level is still insufficient. According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis (CVH), the range of climate fluctuations experienced by terrestrial animals throughout the year increases with latitude, so individuals at higher latitudes should exhibit greater thermal plasticity to cope with fluctuating environments. Mitochondria, as the energy center of vertebrate cells, may indicate species' plasticity through the sensitivity of gene expression. In this study, we focused on the changes in transcript levels of liver mitochondrial protein-coding genes (PCGs) in skinks from the genus Plestiodon (P. capito and P. elegans) and the genus Scincella (S. modesta and S. reevesii) under low-temperature conditions of 8 °C, compared to the control group at 25 °C. Species within the same genus of skinks exhibit different latitudinal distribution patterns. We found that the two Plestiodon species, P. elegans and P. capito, employ a metabolic depression strategy (decreased transcript levels) to cope with low temperatures. In contrast, the two Scincella species show markedly different patterns: S. modesta exhibits significant increases in the transcript levels of six genes (metabolic compensation), while in S. reevesii, only two mitochondrial genes are downregulated (metabolic depression) compared to the control group. We also found that P. capito and S. modesta, which live at mid-to-high latitudes, exhibit stronger adaptive responses and plasticity at the mitochondrial gene level compared to P. elegans and S. reevesii, which live at lower latitudes. We suggest that this enhanced adaptability corresponds to more significant changes in a greater number of genes (plasticity genes).

Climate change stands as the new challenge for whale watching and North Pacific gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) in Bahia Magdalena, Mexico, after their recovery from overexploitation

IntroductionSocial-ecological systems (SES) recognize the intricate relationship between human activities and the environment and advocate for comprehensive approaches to address complex environmental issues. This study investigates the factors influencing whale watching, particularly the gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) in northern Mexico, after significant recovery following overexploitation. Despite reaching a peak in 2015, the eastern North Pacific gray whales experienced unusual mortality events (UME), the most recent from 2019 to 2023, leading to a population decline and historically low calf production in 2022. This decline is evident in the reduced presence of whales and calves in winter breeding lagoons. Concurrently, whale watching has become a significant tourist attraction in these areas.MethodsOur objective was to develop a mental model of the SES of gray whale watching, integrating ecological and socioeconomic data to identify key variables and interactions that support system resilience. From an ecological perspective, we analyzed the long-term temporal trends of eight years of gray whale counts in the southernmost breeding and nursing lagoons within the Bahía Magdalena–Bahía Almejas Complex, Mexico. Additionally, we incorporated the current discussion in the literature about the potential impact of global climate change on gray whale populations. In the socioeconomic subsystem, we used participatory methods, including interviews, surveys, and workshops with government officials, tourism operators, and visitors. We also added on-site assessments of compliance with welfare regulations to understand tourism dynamics. ResultsOur findings identified as main external stressors the changes in ice levels in feeding areas and sea warming in breeding areas, and as internal stressors the compliance with official regulations and the number of vessels observing whales at the same time. The key socioeconomic factor of the system was tourist satisfaction, influenced by factors such as the quality of the information provided by operators. DiscussionUltimately, our mental model provides a framework for further exploration of relevant interactions and trajectories, offering insights for developing effective management strategies.

Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Rapidly advancing anthropogenic climate change is a severe threat to cultural heritage worldwide. World cultural heritage sites (WCHS) are recognized by UNESCO as having outstanding international importance. Identifying and quantifying the impacts of climate change on the WCHS is therefore crucial for the development of long-term protection policies. Spain, the subject of the present study, is one of the most important world heritage countries in terms of the number of sites and is highly vulnerable to climate change under global scenarios.This study identified the main climate risks faced by Spain's WCHS on the basis of future climate data from four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios under the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the most up-to-date global climate model available. Risks include sea level rise and coastal flooding, fire risk and drought risk, hydrodynamic scouring and corrosion, and biodegradation. Some WCHS are located in regions that are projected to experience surface warming exceeding the global average by 2100 under the SSP5--8.5 scenario, with a doubling of extreme climate risk (a gradient from scenarios SSP1--2.6, SSP2--4.5, SSP3--7.0 to SSP5--8.5). Under this shared socioeconomic pathway, three Spanish WCHS are at risk of being submerged by seawater by 2100. On the basis of historical data, we identified greater potential fire risk in regions where Spain's WCHS is located than in other regions in Europe, with eight WCHS experiencing weather-induced fire hazards exceeding 95 %. Considering the combination of LUC types within the Spanish WCHS, we identified two WCHS that exemplify this risk: 1) the archaeological site of Atapuerca, which is primarily occupied by broad-leaved forest, and 2) the Caliphate city of Medina Azahara, which is surrounded by natural grasslands, emphasizing the need for fire prevention in woodland and grassland areas. Furthermore, we quantified the hydrodynamic scouring risk, corrosion and biodegradation risk, and drought risk in the entire region where Spain's WCHS are located from 2081 to 2100 and clustered them on the basis of risk characteristics. We found that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the overall pattern of climate risk faced by Spain's WCHS did not change significantly from the present, but there were clear changes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We also identified that Spain's WCHS listings are at greater risk from different climate risks. This study predicts the potential impact of climate change on Spain's WCHS, emphasizing the crucial role of “carbon neutrality” in reducing various climate risks to Spain's WCHS and providing guidance for the development of future long-term protection policies.

Dams, dams and more dams: Issues in evaluating business cases for dam expansion in Australia

Abstract Conventional interventions for mitigating flood risk and increasing water security often focus on large-scale engineering solutions despite evidence of significant cost overruns and negative environmental impacts. This study is an example of participatory research in water economics, motivated (and requested) by concerns from downstream communities and Indigenous stakeholders that impacts of a proposed dam upgrade and storage increase were not adequately considered. We reviewed the preliminary benefit-cost analysis (BCA) of the proposed AUD$2.1 billion investment to expand the Wyangala Dam in Australia and conducted a new BCA incorporating downstream community perspectives. The original economic analysis favoured the proposed investment, but it underestimated costs and overestimated benefits. Our economic analysis was complemented with a qualitative analysis of downstream community perspectives, plus a quantitative analysis indicating that project costs were underestimated by a minimum of 116%. In comparison, benefits were overestimated by 56%. Neglecting the potential impact of climate change also severely overestimated the original benefit-cost ratio. Based on our calculations, expanding the dam was unlikely to yield a net social benefit. In 2023, a new government decided the dam expansion was too expensive. We recommend policymakers prioritise independent evaluations and community engagement for BCAs on large-scale water infrastructure projects to ensure equitable investment decisions that maximise social welfare and adequate environmental assessment.

PRESERVING NUTMEG : HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE, MEDICINAL BENEFITS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS TO INDONESIAN NUTMEG

Over the past thousand years, scholars and practitioners, drawing from diverse fields including culture, philosophy, sociology, and history, have meticulously documented the intricacies of various medicinal substances and their applications. In this continuum of knowledge, nutmeg, a quintessential spice of Indonesian heritage, has held a prominent place. This study aims to explore the historical significance of nutmeg in Indonesia, its role in medicinal practices, and the threats posed by climate change to nutmeg cultivation. The research seeks to provide valuable insights into the cultural and historical importance of nutmeg in Indonesian society, as well as its medicinal benefits. Additionally, the study aims to analyze the potential impact of climate change on nutmeg production in Indonesia. The study uncovered nutmeg's diverse significance in Indonesia across historical, cultural, medicinal, and economic realms. It emphasized nutmeg's medicinal potential and the climate change challenges to its production. Findings stressed the necessity of robust climate policies and proactive adaptation strategies to ensure nutmeg farming sustainability. In conclusion, this study highlights nutmeg's historical, medicinal, and climate change-related challenges in Indonesia. It stresses the necessity of comprehensive measures to address climate change impacts and integrate resilience strategies into nutmeg farming practices and policymaking. These findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders to ensure the sustainable growth of Indonesian nutmeg exports amidst environmental changes.

Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change

A variety of marine organisms can produce sounds that are important components of the marine soundscape and play a critical role in maintaining marine biodiversity. Climate change has greatly altered the geographical ranges of many marine species, including sound-producing organisms. However, the direction and the magnitude of the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of sound-producing marine organisms in future remain largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we selected snapping shrimp, one of the most well-known marine sound-producing organisms, as a model species and explored their redistribution under climate change via species distribution models. We aimed to predict the redistribution of snapping shrimps under climate change and identify the influencing factors, which have important implications for marine conservation. Our models exhibited good discrimination abilities and identified maximum temperature as the most influential predictor of snapping shrimp distribution. Model predictions suggested that species richness is higher in tropical and temperate coastal waters and peaks in the Indo-Pacific region. The majority of snapping shrimp species are expected to respond to the changing climate by shifting their geographical ranges to deeper waters and higher latitudes. Our results showed that, in the future, high-latitude species were more likely to experience range expansion, whereas low-latitude species might experience range contraction. Moreover, the Central Indo-Pacific are predicted to suffer the biggest decline in species richness, whereas areas such as the coastal waters of southern Australia and northern China might serve as climate refuges for snapping shrimps in the future. In summary, this study highlights the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of sound-producing snapping shrimps, which may result in cascading effects on marine ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal modeling of the potential impact of climate change on shifts in bioclimatic zones in Morocco.

This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of climate change on bioclimatic zones in Morocco, providing insights into potential shifts and emphasizing the need for adaptation measures to protect vulnerable species and ecosystems. To achieve this, we utilized eight general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate climate conditions under two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for two future time points (2050 and 2070). The modeling of bioclimatic zone shifts was accomplished through the implementation of the random forest (RF) algorithm. Our findings indicate that the subhumid and humid areas are expected to experience the most significant shifts, particularly toward the semi-arid zone. Shifts from subhumid to semi-arid were the most pronounced, ranging from 17.91% (RCP8.5 in 2070) to 25.68% (RCP8.5 in 2050), while shifts from humid to semi-arid ranged from 10.16% (RCP4.5 in 2050) to 22.27% (RCP8.5 in 2070). The Saharan and arid zones are expected to be the least affected, with less than 1% and 11% of their original extent expected to change, respectively. Moreover, our results suggest that forest species such as Atlas cedar and oaks are among the most vulnerable to these shifts. Overall, this study highlights the inevitability of climate change's impact on Moroccan ecosystems and provides a basis for adaptation measures, especially considering the species adapted to the bioclimatic conditions that will dominate the respective affected regions.