Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Research Articles

Reconstructing glacial lake outburst floods in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya

The Poiqu River basin in central Himalaya is a transboundary basin between China and Nepal that has experienced rapid glacier ice loss and glacial lake growth, some of which have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Here, we focus on the outbursts of two glacial lakes in this basin, Gongbatongsha Co in 2016, and Poiqu No.1 in 2002, and integrate multiple data sources and approaches to improve our understanding of past GLOFs and project the magnitude of potential future GLOFs. We identify their potential triggers and assess downstream damage by combining remote sensing observations and field surveys. We find that after the outbursts, Gongbatongsha Co shrank by 0.14 ± 0.003 km2 (∼91 %) in 2016 and almost disappeared, and Poiqu No.1 shrank by 0.05 ± 0.001 km2 (∼80 %) in 2002 but then expanded by 0.10 ± 0.002 km2 (∼670 %) by 2022. Our study identifies ice avalanches from the parent glaciers as the dominant trigger of the two GLOF events, and clarifies that the 2002 GLOF event stemmed from Poiqu No.1 instead of the reported Jialong Co. We also reconstructed the flow depths, velocities, and inundation areas using the hydrodynamic models HEC-RAS and FLO-2D. For Gongbatongsha Co, the models suggest that the discharge peaked at ∼550 m3s−1 about 15 min after the outburst, and the flood reached the settlement of Zhangmu with a peak flow of ∼1600 m3s−1 about 8.5 h later. The peak discharge during the GLOF from Poiqu No.1 was ∼2700 m3s−1. The flood reached the town of Nyalam 1.3 h later, with a peak discharge of ∼1100 m3s−1. The simulation of a future GLOF from Poiqu No.1 shows significant potential impacts to Nyalam town and other downstream communities due to the high flow depth. A large GLOF scenario for Poiqu No.1 would result in a peak discharge of more than 2500 m3s−1, with the flood wave reaching Nyalam in less than 40 min. We show that very high-resolution digital elevation models such as obtained from uncrewed aerial vehicles perform better in flood simulation. Our approach can be applied to potentially dangerous glacial lakes in other high mountain areas.

Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Third Pole, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountains. Recent studies on glacial lake changes and GLOF characteristics and risks in this region have shown scattered and insufficiently detailed features. Here, we conduct an appraisal of the GLOF risks by combining high-resolution satellite images, case-by-case high-precision GLOF modeling, and detailed downstream exposure data. The glacial lake changes from 2018 to 2022 in the region were primarily driven by the accelerated expansion of proglacial lakes. The GLOF frequency has exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1980, with intensified activity in Southeastern Tibet and the China-Nepal border area over the past decade. Approximately 6,353 km2 of land could be at risk from potential GLOFs, posing threats to 55,808 buildings, 105 hydropower projects, 194 km2 of farmland, 5,005 km of roads, and 4,038 bridges. This study directly responds to the need for local disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent requirement of reducing GLOF threats in the Third Pole and the importance of regional cooperation.

Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya

AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard for Gepang Gath Lake, Western Himalaya, considering rock and/or ice avalanches cascading into the lake. We consider ground surface temperature and topography to define avalanche source zones located in areas of potentially degrading permafrost. GLOF process chains in current and future scenarios, also considering engineered lake lowering of 10 and 30 m, were evaluated. Here, varied avalanche impact waves, erosion patterns, debris flow hydraulics, and GLOF impacts at Sissu village, under 18 different scenarios were assessed. Authors demonstrated that a larger future lake does not necessarily produce larger GLOF events in Sissu, depending, among other factors, on the location from where the triggering avalanche initiates and strikes the lake. For the largest scenarios, 10 m of lowering reduces the high‐intensity zone by 54% and 63% for the current and future scenarios, respectively, but has little effect on the medium‐intensity flood zone. Even with 30 m of lake lowering, the Sissu helipad falls in the high‐intensity zone under all moderate‐to‐large scenarios, with severe implications for evacuations and other emergency response actions. The approach can be extended to other glacial lakes to demonstrate the efficiency of lake lowering as an option for GLOF mitigation and enable a robust GLOF hazard and risk assessment.

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

Small outbursts into big disasters: Earthquakes exacerbate climate-driven cascade processes of the glacial lakes failure in the Himalayas

Risk assessments for potential glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are primarily focused on large, rapidly expanding lakes. However, the mechanism of cascading hazards that cause small outbursts to transition into big disasters is poorly understood. We investigated the Gongbatongshaco GLOF in the Himalayas, to reveal a novel disaster model and mechanism, considering increasing regional temperature, glacial lake area, and glacial retreat. Global warming drives glacial retreat, and uncover loose sediment that can be mobilized as debris flows, triggering small glacial lake outbursts in high mountain regions. Sediment generated from earthquake-induced landslides exacerbates the flow magnitude in a valley to increase the disaster risk. Concentrations of inhabitants located in these areas are subject to socioeconomic vulnerability, leading to post-disaster poverty within these communities. A reasonable GLOFs resilient mitigation framework is proposed. The results offer new insights into risk assessment, especially for small glacial lakes in tectonically-active high mountain environments influenced by climate change and earthquake activity.

Temporal and Spatial Changes and GLOF Susceptibility Assessment of Glacial Lakes in Nepal from 2000 to 2020

Glacial lakes are a sensitive indicator of regional climate change and one of the initiators of glacier disasters. It is of great significance to understand the spatial distribution and change characteristics of glacial lakes for exploring their response patterns to climate change and assessing the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) susceptibility. Based on Gaofen-1/6 PMS, Sentinel-2A/2B MSI and Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI images from 2000 to 2020, we integrated geographic information technology and mathematical and statistical methods to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of glacial lakes in Nepal and their dynamic changes, and further discriminated and evaluated the GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes. The results show that there were 2420 glacial lakes in Nepal in 2020, mainly distributed within the 4500~5500 m, with an area of 87.21 km2 and a water storage of 1921.72 × 106 m3. The number and area of glacial lakes with each area above 0.01 km2 in Nepal showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, while 499 new glacial lakes were born, 139 lakes disappeared, the area and water storage increased by 19.46 km2, 403.07 × 106 m3, respectively. Glacial lakes at altitudes <3000 m were relatively stable, while the number and area of glacial lakes at altitudes within 4500~5500 m increased rapidly. We assessed the GLOF susceptibility of 40 moraine-dammed glacial lakes with an area above 0.2 km2 in Nepal, and found that there were 8, 12, 14 and 6 glacial lakes with low, medium, high and very high susceptibility, respectively. Among glacial lakes with very high GLOF susceptibility, potential GLOF events of Tsho Rolpa glacial lake, Lower Barun glacial lake and glacial lake with code of GL87091E27797N will cause great harm to downstream regions. GLOFs in Nepal will be in an active status in the future, therefore, the dynamics of glacial lakes and their surroundings should be continuously monitored.

Potential glacial lake outburst flood assessment in a changing environment, Chhombo Chhu Watershed, Sikkim Himalaya, India

The Chhombo Chhu Watershed of Tista basin in Sikkim Himalaya, located between the Greater Himalayan range and the Tethyan Sedimentary Sequence, is the storehouse of number of glacial lakes with large areas and volumes. In this study, we mapped the glacial lakes changes between 1975–2018 and assessed its dynamics based on manual analysis of optical satellite images using KeyHole-9 Hexagon (∼4 m), Landsat Series (∼15–30 m), and Sentinel 2 A-MSI (∼10–20 m) imagery and verified during field surveys. The results show that the number of lakes has increased from 62 to 98, and its total area expanded significantly by ∼34.6 ± 5.4%, i.e. from 8.5 ± 0.2 km2 in 1975 to 11.4 ± 0.6 km2 by 2018, at an expansion rate of 0.8 ± 0.1% a−1. Lake outburst susceptibility result reveals that a total of twenty-seven potentially dangerous glacial lakes exist in the watershed; 5 have a status of ‘high’ outburst probability, 17 ‘medium’ and 5 ‘low’. The majority of the proglacial lakes in the watershed have significantly enlarged due to the faster melting and calving processes as a result of accelerating increasing long-term average annual trend of temperature (+0.283° Ca−1; 95% confidence level) and homogeneous or slightly declining precipitation.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of glacial lakes (1990\u20132018) in the Kashmir Himalayas, India using Remote Sensing and GIS

This study is perhaps the first attempt to use satellite data (1990–2018) to analyze spatiotemporal changes in glacial lakes over the Kashmir Himalayas supplemented by field studies. Landsat images were used to delineate the spatial extent of glacial lakes at four-time points, i.e., 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018. The total count of lakes as well as their spatial extent showed a discernible increase. The number increased from 253 in 1990 to 324 in 2018, with a growth rate of 21.4%. The area has increased from 18.84 ± 0.1 km2 in 1990 to 22.13 ± 0.12 km2 in 2018 with a growth rate of 14.7%. The newly formed glacial lakes, including supraglacial lakes, were greater in number than the lakes that disappeared over the study period. All glacial lakes are situated at elevations of 2700 m asl and 4500 m asl. More than 78% of lake expansion in the study region is largely due to the growth of existing glacial lakes. Through area change analysis, our findings reveal that certain lakes show rapid expansion needing immediate monitoring and observation. The analysis of the meteorological variables reveals that minimum and maximum temperatures in the Jhelum basin have shown an increasing trend. Tmax showed an increase of 1.25 °C, whereas Tmin increased to 0.7 °C from 1980 to 2020. On the other hand, precipitation has shown a decreasing trend, which can be attributed to one of the major causes of glacier recession and the expansion of glacial lakes in the Upper Jhelum basin. Consequently, this study could play a significant role in devising a comprehensive risk assessment plan for potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and developing a mechanism for continuous monitoring and management of lakes in the study region.

Future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya

The Teesta basin in Sikkim Himalaya hosts numerous glacial lakes in the high altitude glacierized region, including one of the largest and the fastest-growing South Lhonak Lake. While these lakes are mainly located in remote and unsettled mountain valleys, far-reaching glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may claim lives and damage assets up to tens of kilometers downstream. Therefore, evaluating GLOF hazard associated with current and potential future glacier-retreat-driven changes is of high importance. In this work, we assess the future GLOF hazard of the South Lhonak Lake by integrating glacier and hydrodynamic modeling to calculate the lake's future volume and hydraulic GLOF characteristics and impacts along the valley. We identify the increased susceptibility of the lake to potential avalanche impacts as the lake grows in the future. Here we model six avalanche scenarios of varying magnitudes to evaluate the impact-wave generated in the lake and overtopping flow at the dam. Avalanche simulations indicate that the frontal moraine is susceptible to overtopping. The overtopping flow hydraulics is evaluated along the channel assuming no erosion of the moraine. Further, we consider three lake-breach scenarios to model GLOFs originating from the lake, flow propagation, and its downstream impacts. The uncertainty in the breach parameters including breach width and time of failure are calculated to estimate the upper and the lower hydraulic limits of potential future GLOF events. Further, the uncertainty in the flow hydraulics was evaluated using dynamic flood routing of six GLOFs that originate from the lake. Hydrodynamic GLOF modeling resulted in a predicted peak discharge of 4311 m3s−1, 8000 m3s−1, and 12,487 m3s−1 for breach depths of 20 m, 30 m, and 40 m respectively. The large-potential scenario suggests that maximum flow depth and flow velocity at Chungthang, a town proximally located to a major hydropower station built-in 2015, could reach up to 25–30 m and 6–9 m s−1, respectively. Mapping infrastructure exposed to GLOFs in the Teesta valley shows that many settlements and assets located along the river channel at Chungthang are potentially exposed to future GLOFs, indicating the need to conduct a full environmental impact assessment and potentially undertake GLOF risk mitigation measures.

Sectorwise Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Danger in the Indian Himalayan Region

Climate change and associated glacier recession have led to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones across the Himalayas. Many pose a potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. In this paper, 4418 glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayan Region and 636 transboundary lakes are analyzed. We consider hazard, exposure, and integrated danger levels using robust geographic information system-based automated approaches. The hazard level of lakes was estimated based on the potential for avalanches to strike the lake, size of the lake and its upstream watershed, and distal slope of its dam. Exposure levels were calculated by intersecting cropland, roads, hydropower projects, and the human population with potential GLOF trajectories. Then, GLOF danger was determined as a function of hazard and exposure. The study demonstrates that Jammu and Kashmir (JK) is potentially the most threatened region in terms of total number of very high and high danger lakes (n = 556), followed by Arunachal Pradesh (AP) (n = 388) and Sikkim (SK) (n = 219). Sectorwise, JK faces the greatest GLOF threat to roads and population, whereas the threat to cropland and hydropower is greatest in AP and SK, respectively. Transboundary lakes primarily threaten AP and, to a lesser extent, Himachal Pradesh (HP). For Uttarakhand (UK), the impacts of potential future glacial lakes, expected to form during rapid ongoing glacier recession because of climate change, are explored. Finally, a comparison of current results with previous studies suggests that 13 lakes in SK, 5 in HP, 4 in JK, 2 in UK, and 1 in AP are of highest priority for local investigation and potential risk reduction measures. Current results are of vital importance to policymakers, disaster management authorities, and the scientific community.

Modeling lake outburst and downstream hazard assessment of the Lower Barun Glacial Lake, Nepal Himalaya

Climate change-driven retreat of glaciers is producing thousands of glacial lakes across mountain regions. These lakes generally grow, coalesce into larger lakes that may produce increased downstream hazards and risks due to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study assesses such hazards of Lower Barun Lake located near Mount Everest, Nepal. We model a series of scenarios, including two potential avalanches that enter the lake from the surrounding slope and eight potential GLOFs from the lake. To evaluate the susceptibility of the frontal moraine to overtopping, we characterize the initial avalanche-induced surge of water over the moraine caused by the kinetic energy of arriving masses and possible tsunami-like events. Further, we present physical hydrodynamic models that reveal the hazard from the potential overtopping and GLOF events along the Barun-Arun river valley. Special attention is given to analyze the flow hydraulics at six downstream settlements. To estimate potential impacts at each location, two extreme-magnitude, two high-magnitude, two moderate-magnitude, and two low-magnitude GLOFs were hydraulically evaluated for the present lake dimension and the modeled future growth of the lake. As with most hydrological processes, the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs from Lower Barun Lake have an inverse, albeit uncertain, relationship, but the potential impacts on people and infrastructure are extremely sensitive to the events’ magnitude. The flow dynamics results indicate that an overtopping flood without erosion of the damming moraine causes minimal impact in the valley. The extreme-magnitude and high-magnitude GLOF cases, where the moraine is incised, have a larger impact but differ greatly in magnitude at each of the downstream settlements. The moderate-magnitude and low-magnitude GLOFs, while the most frequent type, have limited volume and peak discharge, causing less impact downstream. Our calculations only portray the part of the hydrograph representing lake overfill due to a volume of ice or rock entering the lake, and the volume of the lake that could drain from a breach of the damming moraine down to specified depths over specified time periods.

Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat

A potential glacial lake outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) threatens Huaraz, a city of 120,000 people. In 1941, an outburst flood destroyed one-third of the city and caused at least 1,800 fatalities. Since pre-industrial times, Lake Palcacocha has expanded due to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier. Here we used observations and numerical models to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to the glacier’s retreat and glacial lake outburst flood hazard. We found that the magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105% (5–95% confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming since 1880 in this region. We conclude that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and that the retreat by 1941 represented an early impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Our central estimate is that the overall retreat is entirely attributable to the observed temperature trend, and that the resulting change in the geometry of the lake and valley has substantially increased the outburst flood hazard. Human-induced warming is responsible for the retreat of Palcaraju glacier and the associated increase in glacial lake outburst flood hazard, according to an analysis of observations and numerical models.

Glacial Lake Changes and Identification of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes in the Yi’ong Zangbo River Basin

The southeastern Tibetan Plateau, where monsoonal temperate glaciers are most developed, has a huge number of glacial lakes. Based on Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) images, 192 glacial lakes with a total area of 45.73 ± 6.18 km2 in 2016 were delineated in the Yi’ong Zangbo River Basin. Glacial lakes with areas of less than 0.1 km2 accounted for 81.77% of the total number, and glacial lakes located above 4500 m elevation comprised 83.33%. Dramatic glacier melting caused by climate warming has occurred, resulting in the formation and expansion of glacial lakes and the increase of potential glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) risk. From 1970 to 2016, the total area of glaciers in the basin has decreased by 35.39%, whereas the number and total area of glacial lakes have, respectively, increased by 86 and 1.59 km2. In that time, 110 new glacial lakes emerged, whereas 24 of the original lakes disappeared. The newly formed lakes have a smaller mean area but higher mean elevation than the lakes that disappeared. Based on five indicators, a first-order method was used to identify glacial lakes that pose potential threats. We identified 10 lakes with very high, 7 with high, 31 with medium, and 19 with low GLOF susceptibility, out of 67 moraine-dammed glacial lakes with areas larger than 0.02 km2. Understanding the behavior of glaciers and glacial lakes is a vital aspect of GLOFs disaster management, and the monitoring of glacial lakes should be strengthened.

Lake Evolution, Hydrodynamic Outburst Flood Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in the Central Himalaya: A Case Study

Climate change has led to the formation of numerous high-altitude lakes of glacial origin in the Himalaya. Safed Lake is one of the largest glacial lakes, located at an elevation 4882 m a.s.l. in the state of Uttarakhand, central Himalaya, India. A temporal analysis of the lake surface using satellite imagery shows that the lake has grown more than double its size from 0.10 km2 to 0.23 km2 over the past 50 years. In this study, we performed a hazard assessment of the lake using 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling. We identified the potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) triggering factors and evaluated the impact of a moraine breach event of the lake on the nearest village located 16.2 km downstream of the lake. A series of dynamic simulations were performed for different scenario-models based on varied breach depths, breach widths and time of moraine failure. In a worst-case GLOF scenario where breach depth reached up to 60 m, hydrodynamic routing of the breach hydrograph along the given channel revealed inundation depth up to 5 m and flow velocities up to 3.2 m s−1 at Milam village. Considering the flat geometry of the frontal moraine, hazard assessment of the lake was performed by for different breach incision depths (30 and 15 m). In addition, the study incorporated a series of hydrodynamic routing to understand the sensitivity of GLOF to different model input parameters and terrain conditions. The sensitivity of the initial GLOF hydrograph to breach formation time (Tf) was evaluated by considering different hypothetical breach scenarios with a varied time of failure. Increases of 11.5% and 22% in the peak flooding were recorded when the moraine failure time was decreased by 15 and 30 min respectively. The two-dimensional sensitivity revealed flow velocity (m s−1) to be more sensitive to change in Manning’s N when compared to the inundation depth (m). Changes of 10.7% and 0.5% in the mean flow velocity (in m s−1) and flow depth (in m) were recorded when dN was 0.01. The flow velocity was more sensitive to the slope and the top-width of the channel when compared to the inundation depths. A regression of flow velocity versus slope gives a correlation coefficient of 0.76. GLOF flow hydraulics are sensitive to changes in terrain elevation, where flow depth and velocity vary in a similar manner.

Application of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to study glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and its impact on a hydropower station in Central Himalaya

The existence of numerous lakes in the higher reaches of the Himalaya makes it a potential natural hazard as it imposes a risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which can cause great loss of life and infrastructure in the downstream regions. Hydrodynamic modeling of a natural earth-dam failure and hydraulic routing of the breach hydrograph allow us to characterize the flow behavior of a potential flood along a given flow channel. In the present study, the flow hydraulics of a potential GLOF generated due to the moraine failure of the Satopanth lake located in the Alaknanda basin is analyzed using one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrodynamic computations. Field measurements and mapping were carried out at the lake site and along the valley using high-resolution DGPS points. The parameters of Manning’s roughness coefficient and terrain elevation were derived using satellite-based raster, the accuracy of which is verified using field data. The volume of the lake is calculated using area-based scaling method. Unsteady flood routing of the dam-break outflow hydrograph is performed along the flow channel to compute hydraulic parameters of peak discharge, water depth, flow velocity, inundation and stream power at a hydropower dam site located 28 km downstream of the lake. Assuming the potential GLOF event occurs contemporaneously with a 100-year return period flood, unsteady hydraulic routing of the combined flood discharge is performed to evaluate its impact on the hydropower dam. The potential GLOF resulted in a peak discharge of ~ 2600 m3s−1 at the dam site which arrived 38 min after the initiation of the moraine-failure event. The temporal characteristics of the flood wave analyzed using 2D unsteady simulations revealed maximum inundation depth and flow velocity of 7.12 m and 7.6 ms−1, respectively, at the dam site. Assuming that the control gates of the dam remain closed, water depth increases at a rate of 4.5 m per minute and overflows the dam approximately 4 min after the flood wave arrival.

Glacial Lakes in the Nepal Himalaya: Inventory and Decadal Dynamics (1977–2017)

Himalayan glaciers, in general, are shrinking and glacial lakes are evolving and growing rapidly in number and size as a result of climate change. This study presents the latest remote sensing-based inventory (2017) of glacial lakes (size ≥0.0036 km2) across the Nepal Himalaya using optical satellite data. Furthermore, this study traces the decadal glacial lake dynamics from 1977 to 2017 in the Nepal Himalaya. The decadal mapping of glacial lakes (both glacial-fed and nonglacial-fed) across the Nepal Himalaya reveals an increase in the number and area of lakes from 1977 to 2017, with 606 (55.53 ± 16.52 km2), 1137 (64.56 ± 11.64 km2), 1228 (68.87 ± 12.18 km2), 1489 (74.2 ± 14.22 km2), and 1541 (80.95 ± 15.25 km2) glacial lakes being mapped in 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007, and 2017, respectively. Glacial lakes show heterogeneous rates of expansion in different river basins and elevation zones of Nepal, with apparent decadal emergences and disappearances. Overall, the glacial lakes exhibited ~25% expansion of surface areas from 1987 to 2017. For the period from 1987 to 2017, proglacial lakes with ice contact, among others, exhibited the highest incremental changes in terms of number (181%) and surface area (82%). The continuous amplified mass loss of glaciers, as reported in Central Himalaya, is expected to accompany glacial lake expansion in the future, increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We emphasize that the rapidly increasing glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya can pose potential GLOF threats to downstream population and infrastructure.

Extraction of Glacial Lake Outlines in Tibet Plateau Using Landsat 8 Imagery and Google Earth Engine

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most serious natural hazards in high mountain regions in the last several decades. The recent global warming has caused dramatic glacial lake changes and increased potential GLOF risk, particularly in Tibet Plateau (TP). Thus there is a pressing need to understand area and spatial distribution of glacial lakes at a large scale. Current efforts about glacial lake mapping in TP region is limited by spurious detections in the heterogeneous backgrounds. The nonlocal active contour algorithm, which takes full consideration of the regional heterogeneity in image, has been effectively applied in the field of medical image segmentation, but has not been tested at large scale of glaciated area yet. Moreover, the improved radiometric resolution and geographic coverage from Landsat 8 provides an opportunity to map glacial lakes. This study evaluated the potential of Landsat 8 images on annual glacial lake mapping in TP region which was characterized by various complex water conditions. The Google Earth Engine based cloud computing effectively facilitated the processing of a complete time series of Landsat 8 imagery from 2015 (156 path/rows and approximately 3580 scenes). Characteristics of glacial lake distribution were analyzed from aspects of size classes and elevation. Our results demonstrate that these strategies and methods automatically produce highly reliable glacial lake extents across the entire TP region, and are potentially applicable to other large-scale glacial lake mapping projects.

Decision-Making Methodology for Risk Management Applied to Imja Lake in Nepal

Glacial retreat causes the formation of glacier lakes with the potential of producing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Imja Lake in Nepal is considered at risk for a GLOF. Communities in the path of a potential Imja GLOF are implementing adaptation projects, yet no quantitative data or guidance is available to understand the benefits of these projects or how to weigh benefits against the cost of implementation. We develop and demonstrate a decision-making methodology for GLOF risk management, incorporating available scientific information and uncertainty. The methodology consists of (1) identifying flooding scenarios, (2) evaluating scenario consequences, and (3) performing an economic analysis of proposed adaptation projects. The methodology is applied to assess benefits in Dingboche of lowering Imja Lake by 3, 10 and 20 m. The results show that the baseline case (no lake lowering) has the lowest expected cost because of low valuation of agricultural land and homes in the literature. Nonetheless, the result is sensitive to changes in the analysis variables. We also found that lowering the lake by 10 or 20 m is efficient according only to the methodology used here; however, considering only direct economic damages and literature cost estimates, the costs outweigh the benefits for these projects.

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved understanding of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debris flow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigate potential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fill periodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst increases as water volume may change dramatically over very short periods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entire process may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are of particular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lake complex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for the analysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes, their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and development of debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The different Teztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according to field observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years on average. The most important event in the area dates back to 1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Other smaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study shows that the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination of intense precipitation during the days preceding the event and a rapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrainment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume of about 200,000 m3, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m3 s−1 and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s−1. Results of this study are key for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for the assessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks in the region.

A regional-scale assessment of Himalayan glacial lake changes using satellite observations from 1990 to 2015

The Himalaya, the world's highest mountain ranges, are home to a large group of glaciers and glacial lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in this region have resulted in catastrophic damages and fatalities in the past decades. The recent warming has caused dramatic glacial lake changes and increased potential GLOF risk in the Himalaya. However, our knowledge on the current state and change of glacial lakes in the entire Himalaya is limited. This study maps the current (2015) distribution of glacial lakes across the entire Himalaya and monitors the spatially-explicit evolution of glacial lakes over five time periods from 1990 to 2015 using a total of 348 Landsat images at 30m resolution. The results show that 4950 glacial lakes in 2015 cover a total area of 455.3±72.7km2, mainly located between 4000m and 5700m above sea level. Himalayan glacial lakes expanded by approximately 14.1% from 1990 to 2015. The changing patterns of supraglacial lakes and proglacial lakes are rather complex, involving both lake disappearance and emergence. Many emergent glacial lakes are found at higher elevations, especially the new proglacial lakes, which have formed as a result of glacier retreat. Spatially heterogeneous changes of Himalayan glacial lakes are observed, with the most significant expansion occurring in the southern slopes of the central Himalaya. Increasing glacier meltwater induced by the Himalayan atmospheric warming is a primary cause for the observed lake expansion. This study provides primary data for future GLOF risk assessments. A total of 118 rapidly expanded glacial lakes are identified as potential vulnerable lakes for the priority of risk assessment.