Potential Geographic Distribution Research Articles

Considering climate change impact on the global potential geographical distribution of the invasive Argentine ant and little fire ant.

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) are among the top 100 invasive alien species globally, causing significant ecological and economic harm. Therefore, it is crucial to study their potential geographic distribution worldwide. This study aimed to predict their global distribution under current and future climate conditions. We used distribution data from various sources, including CABI, GBIF, and PIAKey, and key climate variables selected from 19 environmental factors to model their potential geographic distribution using MaxEnt. The AUC values were 0.925 and 0.937 for L. humile and W. auropunctata, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Suitable areas for L. humile were mainly in southern North America, northern South America, Europe, central Asia, southern Oceania, and parts of Africa, while W. auropunctata suitable areas were mostly in southern North America, most of South America, a small part of Europe, southern Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Oceania. Under climate change scenario, suitable areas for L. humile increased, while highly suitable areas for W. auropunctata decreased. The top four countries with the largest areas of overlapping suitable habitat under current climate were Brazil, China, Australia, and Argentina, while under future SSP585 climate scenario, the top four countries were Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Argentina. Some countries, such as Estonia and Finland, will see an overlapping adaptation area under climate change. In conclusion, this study provides insight into controlling the spread and harm of L. humile and W. auropunctata.

Temperature extremes nip invasive macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray in the bud: potential geographic distributions and risk assessment based on future climate change and anthropogenic influences

Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray, an ornamental submerged plant indigenous to tropical America, has been introduced to numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, impacting native aquatic ecosystems. Given this species is a popular aquarium plant and widely traded, there is a high risk of introduction and invasion into other environments. In the current study the potential global geographic distribution of C. caroliniana was predicted under the effects of climate change and human influence in an optimised MaxEnt model. The model used rigorously screened occurrence records of C. caroliniana from hydro informatic datasets and 20 associated influencing factors. The findings indicate that temperature and human-mediated activities significantly influenced the distribution of C. caroliniana. At present, C. caroliniana covers an area of approximately 1531×104 km2 of appropriate habitat, especially in the south-eastern parts of South, central and North America, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and most of Europe. The suitable regions are anticipated to expand under future climate scenarios; however, the dynamics of the changes vary between different extents of climate change. For example, C. caroliniana is expected to expand to higher latitudes, following global temperature increases under SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, however, intolerance to temperature extremes may mediate invasion at higher latitudes under future extreme climate scenarios, e.g., SSP5–8.5. Owing to the severe impacts its invasion causes, early warning and stringent border quarantine processes are required to guard against the introduction of C. caroliniana especially in the invasion hotspots such as, Peru, Italy, and South Korea.

Potential historically intertropical stable areas during the Late Quaternary of South America

AbstractSouth America is a pivotal paleontological setting for Late Quaternary megafaunal research. Nonetheless, its paleobiogeography and paleoecology, and the causes for the recent extinction of megafauna in the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene are not yet fully understood. This study aimed to investigate the potential geographical distribution and historically intertropical stable areas (HISAs) of South American megafauna. We generated maps using Paleo‐Species Distribution Models for 12 megafaunal taxa (11 herbivores and one carnivore) during interglacial and glacial periods in the Late Quaternary: 120 and 21 ka. Our models, together with isotopic data, show that the HSIAs occurred mainly in low‐altitude plains (<1000 m) and were superimposed on seasonal dry forest biomes. We propose the occurrence of two HSIAs: the West Intertropical Region and the Brazilian Intertropical Region, the latter being redefined. We suggest that the Brazilian Intertropical Region is much smaller than previously proposed, but was still a key zoogeographical region for megafauna in South America during the Late Pleistocene.

Forecast of Current and Future Distributions of Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) under Climate Change in China

Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) emerged as an invasive pest in China around 2010, posing a significant threat to plants within the Asteraceae family. Employing the MaxEnt model, this study endeavors to anticipate the potential geographic distribution of Corythucha marmorata amid present and forthcoming climatic conditions, utilizing a dataset of 60 distributional occurrences alongside environmental parameters. The results revealed that presently, suitable regions span from 18–47° N to 103–128° E, with pronounced suitability concentrated notably in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Sichuan. Projections suggested a general expansion of suitable habitats, albeit with exceptions noted in SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios in the 2050s and SSP5–8.5 in the 2070s. The potential suitability of areas for Corythucha marmorata was influenced by major factors such as precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (bio10), mean temperature in the wettest quarter (bio8), and annual precipitation (bio12). Notably, temperature and precipitation emerge as primary determinants affecting both current and future ranges. In comparison with the current distributional area, there was a trend towards increasing the potentially suitable areas in the future. Moreover, there was a greater risk of spreading to the north of China in the future. This study serves as a pivotal resource for guiding future endeavors in monitoring, early detection, and preventative management strategies targeting Corythucha marmorata.

Potential current and future distribution for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Colombia: important disease vectors

AbstractInvasive mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti (African) and Aedes albopictus (Asian), serve as global vectors for diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, and they are currently present in Colombia. Consequently, the aim of this study was to assess the potential geographic distribution of these A. aegypti and A. albopictus vectors under both present and future environmental conditions in Colombia. To achieve this, a dataset was compiled using global records for each species, with those from Colombia being used for model validation. These records, in conjunction with layers of bioclimatic variables, were incorporated into ecological niche models. Predictions of potential distribution were made with the Maxent algorithm, using the Wallace EcoMod application for current conditions and the Java MaxEnt software for future projections, which represented three climate change scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for two time periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100). Additionally, niche overlap was calculated, and the suitable habitat range and population at risk in Colombia were quantified for current predictions. It is suggested that both species share ideal areas in the country with an overlap of 0.85, covering over 70% of the country's territory and reaching altitudes higher than 2,500 m, potentially affecting at least 45% of the population. In the future for both species it is estimated that, with increasing temperatures, the potential distribution could decrease, but they could invade areas with altitudes above 3,500 m (colder). It is concluded that, currently, A. aegypti and A. albopictus could have similar geographic distribution in Colombia and that, in the following years, climate change could lead to latitudinal and altitudinal variations in the distribution areas of these vectors.

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios

Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors.

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner&Buhrer) Nickle is a global quarantine pest that causes devastating mortality in pine species. The rapid and uncontrollable parasitic spread of this organism results in substantial economic losses to pine forests annually. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and GIS software ArcGIS10.8 to predict the distribution of B. xylophilus based on collected distribution points and 19 environmental variables (with a correlation coefficient of|R| > 0.8) for the contemporary period (1970-2000), 2041-2060 (2050s), 2061-2080 (2070s), and 2081-2100 (2090s) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the key environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of B. xylophilus and suitable distribution areas. Our results indicate that in current prediction maps B. xylophilus had potential suitable habitats in all continents except Antarctica, with East Asia being the region with the most highly suitable areas and the most serious epidemic area currently. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were identified as key environmental variables that determine the distribution of B. xylophilus. Under future climatic conditions, the potential geographic distribution of B. xylophilus will expand relative to current conditions. In particular, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2081-2100, suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes, and there will be significant changes in suitable areas in Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings are crucial for future prevention and control management and monitoring.

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change.

Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

Current potential geographic distribution of an extremely rare and threatened orchid bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) from eastern Brazil, including a new geographic record

Current potential geographic distribution of an extremely rare and threatened orchid bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) from eastern Brazil, including a new geographic record

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia.

Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2

Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is crucial for developing effective early warning measures and facilitating long-term monitoring. In this study, we screened various species distribution models (SDMs), including CTA, GBM, GAM, RF, and XGBOOST, to construct an ensemble model (EM) and then predict suitable habitats for P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85). The EM (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.96) yielded predictions that were more precise than those from the individual models. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (Bio18) are the most significant environmental variables affecting the PGDs of P. canaliculata. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats for P. canaliculata are primarily located south of the Yangtze River, collectively accounting for 17.66% of the nation’s total area. Unsuitable habitats predominate in higher-latitude regions, collectively covering 66.79% of China’s total land area. In future climate scenarios, the total number of suitable habitats for P. canaliculata is projected to expand into higher latitude regions, especially under SSP3-70 and SSP5-85 climate conditions. The 4.1 °C contour of Bio1 and the 366 mm contour of Bio18 determine the northernmost geographical distribution of P. canaliculata. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of P. canaliculata expanding into higher latitudes.

Mapping an endangered living fossil's distribution, threats, and protection coverage

AbstractSpecies Distribution Models have emerged in recent decades as a powerful tool for biodiversity research, as they allow, for example, assessing the status of species in their whole distributions. These models have been particularly helpful in demonstrating that amphibian populations are at high risk, with many declining and others already extinct. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of the helmeted water toad (Calyptocephalella gayi), an endemic Chilean amphibian considered a living fossil and cataloged as vulnerable, which requires significant conservation efforts. We modeled the species' potential distribution using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) approach and determined the overlap with national protected areas. In addition, we conducted a geospatial risk analysis to estimate the threat level to which this toad is being subjected. The potential distribution of C. gayi ranges from 28°S to 44°S, mainly explained by altitude, mean diurnal temperature range, slope, and distance to water bodies. Protected areas only cover 3.55% of the species' potential geographic distribution, which is of concern, considering that the geospatial risk analysis showed that 60.61% of C. gayi's distribution is subjected to extreme and high risks. We discuss how these results are relevant to focusing and directing efficient protection and conservation efforts for this species shortly.

Potential habitat areas and priority protected areas of Tilia amurensis Rupr in China under the context of climate change.

Tilia amurensis Rupr (T. amurensis) is one endangered and national class II key protected wild plant in China. It has ornamental, material, economic, edible and medicinal values. At present, the resources of T. amurensis are decreasing, and the prediction of the distribution of its potential habitat in China can provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species. In this study, the R language was used to evaluate 358 distribution records and 38 environment variables. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of T. amurensis under the current and future climate scenarios. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis were analyzed and the Marxan model was used to plan the priority protected areas of this species. The results showed that Bio18, Slope, Elev, Bio1, Bio9 and Bio2 were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis. Under the future climatic scenarios, the potential suitable areas for T. amurensis will mainly distribute in the Northeast China, the total suitable area will reduce compared with the current climate scenarios, and the general trend of the centroid of suitable habitat will be towards higher latitudes. The SPF value of the best plan obtained from the priority conservation area planning was 1.1, the BLM value was 127,616, and the priority conservation area was about 57.61×104 km2. The results suggested that climate, soil and topographic factors jointly affected the potential geographical distribution of T. amurensis, and climate and topographic factors had greater influence than soil factors. The total suitable area of T. amurensis in China under different climate scenarios in the future will decrease, so more effective protection should be actively adopted.

Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates.

The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), which is native to tropical Africa, has invaded more than 100 countries and constitutes a risk to the citrus sector. Studying its potential geographical distribution (PGD) in the context of global climate change is important for prevention and control efforts worldwide. Therefore, we used the CLIMEX model to project and assess the risk of global invasion by C. capitata under current (1981-2010) and future (2040-2059) climates. In the prevailing climatic conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata was approximately 664.8 × 105 km2 and was concentrated in South America, southern Africa, southern North America, eastern Asia, and southern Europe. Under future climate conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata is projected to decrease to approximately 544.1 × 105 km2 and shift to higher latitudes. Cold stress was shown to affect distribution at high latitudes, and heat stress was the main factor affecting distribution under current and future climates. According to the predicted results, countries with highly suitable habitats for C. capitata that have not yet been invaded, such as China, Myanmar, and Vietnam, must strengthen quarantine measures to prevent the introduction of this pest.

Distribution and conservation of the narrow sub-endemic shrub, Lonicera paradoxa in Pamir-Alay, Central Asia

Abstract. Daminova N, Nosirov S, Akbarov F, Tojibaev K, Temirov E. 2024. Distribution and conservation of the narrow sub-endemic shrub, Lonicera paradoxa in Pamir-Alay, Central Asia. Biodiversitas 25: 439-448. Lonicera paradoxa Pojark. (Lonicera ser. Alpigenae Pojark. ex A.Byalt) is a shrub with a geographically limited range. This species is included in the national red book lists of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan and is considered one of the rare species in danger of extinction in nature. The species grows in a significant elevation from 1600 to 3200 m on the Northern slopes of the Alay Range, Central Asia. In this study, we investigated the geographic distribution of L. paradoxa based on scientific literature, herbarium data collections, and field surveys. We then modeled the current and potential future geographic distribution using Maxent. We also conducted a propagation study for its conservation under laboratory and greenhouse conditions. Our fieldwork in 2021-2022 found new records of L. paradoxa in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. We calculated the Extent of Occurrence (EOO) and Area of Occupancy (AOO) of the species, which were 5.08 km2 (VU) and 28 km2 (EN), respectively. Therefore, based on the IUCN Red List and Criteria, we recommend the conservation status of L. paradoxa as endangered (EN) in categories B2 ab (ii, iii, iv) + D. Our modeling prediction suggested that compared to the current, suitable habitat of L. paradoxa to reduce significantly in the future with very suitable habitats are expected to expand to the south and high mountain areas. For the first time, the conservation measures of L. paradoxa were carried out at the Tashkent Botanical Garden. The conducted research made it possible to preserve L. paradoxa in ex-situ conditions. The results of this research can be helpful in determining and planning measures for the protection of L. paradoxa in the territory of the Kyrgyz and Tajikistan Republics, both now and in the future.

Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Luculia pinceana Hook. f. since the Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, we utilized 76 natural distribution points and six environmental variables to establish a detailed species distribution prediction process for Luculia pinceana Hook. f. Our aim was to explore the potential distribution patterns of L. pinceana since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and its response to climate change, providing a scientific basis for conservation strategies and the suitable introduction of its wild populations. This model enabled the prediction of L. pinceana’s geographical distribution patterns across five temporal phases: the LGM, the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and two future scenarios. Additionally, the model pinpointed the dominant environmental factors influencing these distribution patterns. The results indicate the following: (1) The temperature annual range (bio7), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) are the dominant environmental factors that determine the distribution of L. pinceana. In areas where bio7 is less than 22.27 °C, bio6 is above 3.34 °C, and bio13 exceeds 307.65 mm, the suitability for L. pinceana is highest. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the highly suitable area of L. pinceana accounts for 64 × 104 km2, which accounts for half of the total suitable area. The suitable habitats for L. pinceana are concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, southern Nyingchi in Tibet, and the coastal areas of South China. (3) During the LGM and the MH, the suitable habitats for L. pinceana were essentially consistent with the current scenarios, with no significant southward shift in distribution. This lack of a major southward migration during the LGM could be attributed to the species finding refuge in situ in mountainous areas. (4) Under various future emission scenarios, the suitable habitat area for L. pinceana is expected to experience significant expansion, generally shifting towards the northwest and higher latitudes. The anticipated global warming in the future is likely to provide more favorable conditions for the survival of L. pinceana. It is recommended that the introduction follows the direction of centroid migration, facilitated by vegetation management, and it has the ecological and economic benefits of L. pinceana to a greater extent.

Potential Geographical Distribution of Lagerstroemia excelsa under Climate Change

As a popular ornamental plant and an effective species for controlling rocky desertification, the identification and protection of potential habitats of Lagerstroemia excelsa habitats hold significant importance. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the natural resources and growing conditions for L. excelsa, predictive modeling was employed to estimate the potential geographical distribution of the species during the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and the years 2050 and 2070. The projection was based on current occurrences, and we selected the relevant environmental attributes through the Pearson analysis and the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). The analysis revealed that temperature and precipitation are the primary environmental factors influencing L. excelsa distribution, with the Wuling Mountains identified as a center distribution hub for this species. The anticipated suitable area for L. excelsa is expected to experience marginal expansion under future climate scenarios. These results are invaluable for guiding the protection and sustainable utilization of L. excelsa in the face of climate change. Additionally, the data generated can be leveraged for enhanced introduction, breeding, selection, and cultivation of L. excelsa, taking into account the challenges posed by global warming.

Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles.

Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 104 km2). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 104 km2). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.

Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China

As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 104 km2, primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small ‘sky Island’ orchid species in China

BackgroundCorybas taliensis is an endemic species of sky islands in China. Its habitat is fragile and unstable, and it is likely that the species is threatened. However, it is difficult to determine the conservation priority or unit without knowing the genetic background and the overall distribution of this species. In this study, we used double digest restriction-site associated DNA-sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to investigate the conservation genomics of C. taliensis. At the same time, we modeled the extent of suitable habitat for C. taliensis in present and future (2030 and 2090) habitat using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model.ResultsThe results suggested that the related C. fanjingshanensis belongs to C. taliensis and should not be considered a separate species. All the sampling locations were divided into three genetic groups: the Sichuan & Guizhou population (SG population), the Hengduan Mountains population (HD population) and Himalayan population (HM population), and we found that there was complex gene flow between the sampling locations of HD population. MT was distinct genetically from the other sampling locations due to the unique environment in Motuo. The genetic diversity (π, He) of C. taliensis was relatively high, but its contemporary effective population size (Ne) was small. C. taliensis might be currently affected by inbreeding depression, although its large population density may be able to reduce the effect of this. The predicted areas of suitable habitat currently found in higher mountains will not change significantly in the future, and these suitable habitats are predicted to spread to other higher mountains under future climate change. However, suitable habitat in relatively low altitude areas may disappear in the future. This suggests that C. taliensis will be caught in a ‘summit trap’ in low altitude areas, however, in contrast, the high altitude of the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to act as ‘biological refuges’ for C. taliensis in the future.ConclusionsThese results not only provide a new understanding of the genetic background and potential resource distribution of C. taliensis, but also lay the foundation for its conservation and management.