Potential For Future Production Research Articles

Considerations on the future biomass production potential of Iceland, and what role that could have in future fuel supply and carbon balances

ABSTRACTThis study suggests that Iceland may be able to produce sufficient liquid hydrocarbon fuels from biological sources in the future to substitute the Icelandic 2016 consumption of fossil fuels, by using forest products. The authors evaluate a strategy to put forest on up to 35,000 km2 in Iceland to 2050. The preliminary study shows that Iceland could reach climate neutrality around 2050 and be a significant net carbon sequester for the next 250 years. Approximate estimates suggest that the total forest biomass production could reach about 10 million m3yr−1, comprising 3.1 million m3yr−1 of roundwood, 3.1 million m3yr−1 for generic biomass, and about 4.2 million m3yr−1 woody material for biofuel use. This could result in a net annual carbon dioxide sequestration of 2–2.5 mill ton CO2 yr−1 by 2100. The calculations suggest that such an afforestation and land restoration undertaking would be long term profitable in economic terms and that the payback time would be about 2050. The method applied in this study is that of a static mass balance calculations at different time points into the future. Parallel to this work, a full integrated regional forest production model is being developed and will be applied to this issue.

Operando observation of nickel/ceria electrode surfaces during intermediate temperature steam electrolysis

The solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology has a huge potential for future mass production of hydrogen, mainly due to its high electrical-to-chemical energy conversion efficiency. However, the durability and the performance of SOEC devices are inferior to that of other competitive electrolysis technologies inhibiting the commercialization of SOECs. Despite the fact that Ni-based cermets are currently the most widely used cathode materials for SOEC, change of the nickel oxidation state has been accused as a major issue limiting the performance of these devices. In this work we provide operando experimental evidence of the active surface oxidation state and composition of nickel/doped-ceria cermets under water electrolysis conditions using ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron and near edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopies, combined with quantitative spectra simulation. Remarkably under specific operational conditions, nickel is maintained in a partially oxidized state which, counterintuitive to the expected behavior, can be beneficial to the cell performance. This finding may initiate new improvement strategies for SOEC electrodes based on thorough optimization of the operational conditions, in order to engineer in situ the most propitious electrode configuration.

High Temperature Co-Electrolysis of CO2 and Water on Doped Lanthanum Chromites

The high temperature Solid Oxide Electrolysis or Co-electrolysis (SOEC) technology has a huge potential for future mass production of hydrogen (and synthesis gas) and shows great dynamics to become commercially competitive against other electrolysis technologies, which are better established but more expensive and less efficient. Despite the fact that Ni-YSZ, a state-of-the-art (SoA) SOEC electrode, has been proven to be an efficient electrode for electrolysis applications in terms of current density, it suffers from various degradation issues. In this respect, the perovskitic material La0.75Sr0.25Cr0.9Fe0.1O3- δ which is a mixed ionic-electronic conductor is prepared and studied as cathode electrode in electrolysis. This electrode, in combination with a typical LSM anode electrode in electrolyte (YSZ) supported cells, shows high efficiency comparable to that of the-state-of-the-art Ni-YSZ, while it exhibits highly stable performance during both H2O electrolysis and H2O-CO2 co-electrolysis.

The life cycle impact for platinum group metals and lithium to 2070 via surplus cost potential

PurposeA surplus cost potential (SCP) indicator has been developed as a measure of resource scarcity in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) context. To date, quality SCP estimates for other minerals than fossils are either not yet available or suffer methodological and data limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations and demonstrate how SCP estimates for metals can be calculated without the utilisation of ore grade function and by collecting primary economic and geological data.MethodsData were collected in line with the geographical distribution, mine type, deposit type and production volumes and total production costs in order to construct cost-cumulative availability curves for platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium. These curves capture the total amount of known mineral resources that can be recovered profitably at various prices from different types of mineral deposits under current conditions (this is, current technology, prevailing labour and other input prices). They served as a basis for modelling the marginal cost increase, a necessary parameter for estimating the SCP indicator. Surplus costs were calculated for different scenario projections for future mineral production considering future market dynamics, recyclability rates, demand-side technological developments and economic growth and by applying declining social discount rate.Results and discussionSurplus costs were calculated for three mineral production scenarios, ranging from (US$2014/kg) 6545–8354 for platinum, 3583–4573 for palladium, 8281–10,569 for rhodium, 513–655 for ruthenium, 3201–4086 for iridium and 1.70–5.80 for lithium. Compared with the current production costs, the results indicate that problematic price increases of lithium are unlikely if the latest technological trends in the automotive sector will continue up to 2070. Surplus costs for PGMs are approximately one-third of the current production costs in all scenarios; hence, a threat of their price increases by 2070 will largely depend on the discovery of new deposits and the ability of new technologies to push these costs down over time. This also applies to lithium if the increasing electrification of road transport will continue up to 2070.ConclusionsThis study provides useful insight into the availability of PGMs and lithium up to 2070. It proves that if time and resources permit, reliable surplus cost estimates can be calculated, at least in the short-run, based on the construction of one’s own curves with the level of quality comparable to expert-driven consulting services. Modelling and incorporating unknown deposits and potential future mineral production costs into these curves is the subject of future work.

Dual‐Functional N Dopants in Edges and Basal Plane of MoS2 Nanosheets Toward Efficient and Durable Hydrogen Evolution

Herein, the authors explicitly reveal the dual‐functions of N dopants in molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) catalyst through a combined experimental and first‐principles approach. The authors achieve an economical, ecofriendly, and most efficient MoS2‐based hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) catalyst of N‐doped MoS2 nanosheets, exhibiting an onset overpotential of 35 mV, an overpotential of 121 mV at 100 mA cm−2 and a Tafel slope of 41 mV dec−1. The dual‐functions of N dopants are (1) activating the HER catalytic activity of MoS2 S‐edge and (2) enhancing the conductivity of MoS2 basal plane to promote rapid charge transfer. Comprehensive electrochemical measurements prove that both the amount of active HER sites and the conductivity of N‐doped MoS2 increase as a result of doping N. Systematic first‐principles calculations identify the active HER sites in N‐doped MoS2 edges and also illustrate the conducting charges spreading over N‐doped basal plane induced by strong Mo 3d–S 2p–N 2p hybridizations at Fermi level. The experimental and theoretical research on the efficient HER catalysis of N‐doped MoS2 nanosheets possesses great potential for future sustainable hydrogen production via water electrolysis and will stimulate further development on nonmetal‐doped MoS2 systems to bring about novel high‐performance HER catalysts.

Sustainability of platinum production in South Africa and the dynamics of commodity pricing

Against the backdrop of potential reliable and sustainable future production of platinum for export in South Africa, this article sheds some light on the dynamics of commodity pricing, specifically with respect to the recent low platinum price. In this regard, a structural vector autoregression (VAR) was applied to observe the sensitivity of the platinum price and future pricing due to changes in macroeconomic variables, but also to review changes in macroeconomic variables due to changes in the platinum (commodity) price. The variables used for decomposition were the platinum price, the oil price, the real effective exchange rate of the United States (US), the US Federal funds rate, and total combined gross domestic product (GDP) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Impulse response functions, with shocks to each system were investigated, and the forecast error variance decomposition was examined. The main results were that a shock to OECD GDP results in a platinum price increase, that is, a positive correlation between output and the platinum price. A shock to the oil price causes the platinum price to spike in the short term, then decrease over the medium term, then move sideways in the long term. A shock to the US Federal funds rate makes the platinum price spike in the short term, then decrease over the medium term and move sideways over the long term. Finally, a shock to the real effective exchange rate of the United States causes the platinum price move sideways. The dynamics of commodity pricing is important to ensure platinum sustainability in the future, fostering capital investment within a corrective policy environment. The present research could serve as a guide for possible early and therefore less dramatic interventions. At best, in normal circumstances, with a fully functioning labour force, the research could help achieve expected planned reliable production going forward, and at worst, it provides the necessary stimulus for future research and a review of predictions made.

Guest Editorial: Climate Policy with Low Oil Prices

Guest editorial Although oil experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past 4 decades, a turning point has been reached where scarcity, uncertain supply, and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability, and suppressed price levels in the decades to come. In our new book, The Price of Oil, we conclude that the shale revolution will yield an increased output of oil in the world totaling nearly 20 million B/D by 2035. We also assert that a “conventional oil revolution”—the application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to conventional oil formations in the world—will yield a further addition of almost 20 million B/D in the same period. This extra 40 million B/D is nearly twice as much as the global increase in oil production in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2014. As these new production revolutions develop and expand internationally, they are bound to have a strong price-depressing impact, either by preventing price rises from the levels observed in 2015 (the Brent spot price averaged USD 53/bbl), or by pushing prices back to these levels if an early upward reaction takes place. Our optimistic scenario sees a price of USD 40/bbl by 2035. Without serious climate policy restrictions, the use of cheaper oil will likely grow and extend its life expectancy throughout the global energy system. The Carbon Bubble Fallacy A deep climate policy is one that ensures that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere do not exceed a doubling from pre-industrial levels throughout the 21st century, believed to be a warming of about 2 degrees Celsius. Such a policy would require global emission cuts of 30% by 2035, and no less than 50% by 2050, compared with 2011 levels. There is little doubt that implementation of climate policy this ambitious implies the end of the recent revolution in oil production. There have also been widespread claims that such a policy would result in massive stranded assets in the fossil fuel industries. Would sizable proved reserves remaining in the ground due to a deep climate policy constitute a serious problem to the fossil industries? We do not think so, or else, the reserves would never have been created on such a prevalent scale. In the case of oil, the reason proved reserves have been created to last more than 50 years into the future, at present production levels, is that investment in reserve creation is relatively small in relation to total production costs, and therefore worth the companies’ while to assure reasonable peace of mind about future production potential.

What are We Really Good At? Product Strategy with Uncertain Capabilities

Firms often learn about their own capabilities through their products' successes and failures. This paper explores the interaction between such learning from experience and product strategy in a formal model. We consider a firm that can launch a sequence of products, where each product's performance depends on the fit between the firm's capabilities and the product. A successful new product always causes the firm to become more optimistic about the capability most relevant for that product; however, it can also cause the firm to become less optimistic about some of its other capabilities, including capabilities the new product does not use. A product launch generates useful information for future decisions if it leads to learning about capabilities used by potential future products. We find that a product sharing few or even no capabilities with potential future products may generate more useful information than a product with greater overlap.

Co-gasification of black liquor and pyrolysis oil: Evaluation of blend ratios and methanol production capacities

The main aim of this study is to investigate integrated methanol production via co-gasification of black liquor (BL) and pyrolysis oil (PO), at Swedish pulp mills. The objectives are to evaluate techno-economically different blends ratios for different pulp mill capacities. Furthermore, the future methanol production potential in Sweden and overall system consequences of large-scale implementation of PO/BL co-gasification are also assessed.It is concluded that gasification of pure BL and PO/BL blends up to 50% results in significantly lower production costs than what can be achieved by gasification of unblended PO. Co-gasification with 20–50% oil addition would be the most advantageous solution based on IRR for integrated biofuel plants in small pulp mills (200kADt/y), whilst pure black liquor gasification (BLG) will be the most advantageous alternative for larger pulp mills. For pulp mill sizes between 300 and 600kADt/y, it is also concluded that a feasible methanol production can be achieved at a methanol market price below 100€/MWh, for production capacities ranging between 0.9 and 1.6TWh/y for pure BLG, and between 1.2 and 6.5TWh/y for PO/BL co-gasification. This study also shows that by introducing PO/BL co-gasification, fewer pulp mills would need to be converted to biofuel plants than with pure BLG, to meet a certain biofuel demand for a region. Due to the technical as well as organizational complexity of the integration this may prove beneficial, and could also potentially lower the total investment requirement to meet the total biofuel demand in the system. The main conclusion is that PO/BL co-gasification is a technically and economically attractive production route for production biomethanol.

Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production – Spatial representation of Markov chains

This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025, allowing an assessment of the potential future biogas production at a local level. The study builds on a unique time series data set (1999–2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1 km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, based on state classes reflecting Danish agricultural legislation. The modelled transition probabilities were assumed to be stationary. This assumption was tested and good fit between the model and the data was found for all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented, supporting the argument of disaggregating data by georegion and livestock type. Throughout the period 2009–2020 slurry based biomass is expected to decrease by approx. 10% in Denmark. The largest changes are found in the Northern and Western parts of the country whereas the most frequent changes are expected to occur in the central parts of the country. The strategic objective of the model and its application within spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production is to form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.

Efficient tuning of microstructure and surface chemistry of nanocarbon catalysts for ethylbenzene direct dehydrogenation

A facile and scalable approach to efficiently tune microstructure and surface chemical properties of N‐doped carbocatalysts through the controlled glucose hydrothermal treatment with diverse parameters and subsequent pyrolysis of pretreated carbonaceous materials with melamine (GHT‐PCM) was presented. Various characterization techniques including high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), N2 adsorption desorption (BET), X‐ray diffraction (XRD), X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), Raman spectroscopy (Raman), and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) were employed to investigate the effect of prior GHT on the microstructure and surface chemical properties of N‐doped carbocatalysts, as well as to reveal the relationship between catalyst nature and catalytic performance in oxidant‐ and steam‐free direct dehydrogenation (DDH) of ethylbenzene for styrene production. It was found that the GHT process and its conditions significantly affect microstructure and surface chemical properties of the N‐doped carbocatalysts, which subsequently influences their catalytic performance in DDH reaction dramatically. Interestingly, the prior GHT can remove the carbon nitride layer formed on parent nanocarbon in the process of melamine pyrolysis, produce structural defects, and tune surface element component, through the “detonation” of polysaccharide coating on nanocarbon. The as‐prepared N‐doped CNT (M‐Glu‐CNT) by the established GHT‐PCM approach demonstrates higher catalytic performance (4.6 mmol g−1h−1 styrene rate with 98% selectivity) to the common N‐doped CNT (M‐CNT, 3.4 mmol g−1 h−1 styrene rate with 98.2% selectivity) as well as to pristine CNT (2.8 mmol g−1 h−1 styrene rate with 96.8% selectivity), mainly ascribed to increased structural defects, enriched surface ketonic CO groups, and improved basic properties from N‐doping on the M‐Glu‐CNT, those strongly depend on GHT conditions. The excellent catalytic performance of the developed M‐Glu‐CNT catalyst endows it with great potential for future clean production of styrene via oxidant‐ and steam‐free conditions. Moreover, the directed GHT‐PCM strategy can be extended to the other N‐doped carbonaceous materials with enhanced catalytic performance in diverse reactions by tuning their microstructure and surface chemistry. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 2543–2561, 2015

What are We Really Good At? Product Strategy with Uncertain Capabilities

Firms often learn about their own capabilities through their products' successes and failures. This paper explores the interaction between such learning from experience and product strategy in a formal model. We consider a firm that can launch a sequence of products, where each product's performance depends on the fit between the firm's capabilities and the product. A successful new product always causes the firm to become more optimistic about the capability most relevant for that product; however, it can also cause the firm to become less optimistic about some of its other capabilities, including capabilities the new product does not use. A product launch generates useful information for future decisions if it leads to learning about capabilities used by potential future products. We find that a product sharing few or even no capabilities with potential future products may generate more useful information than a product with greater overlap.

A Study of Dairy Heifer Rearing Practices from Birth to Weaning and Their Associated Costs on UK Dairy Farms

There are many inputs into the dairy replacement herd which impact not only on the cost of rearing heifers from birth to first calving, but also on their future longevity and production potential. This study determined the current cost of rearing dairy heifers in the UK through the calculation and analysis of individual costs on a subset of 102 UK dairy farms. Each farm was visited and an extensive heifer rearing questionnaire was completed. Current heifer rearing practices were recorded to provide insight into critical management decisions. A cost analysis workbook was developed to calculate the costs of inputs in the preweaning period for labour, calving, feed, housing, health treatments and vaccinations, waste storage, machinery and equipment, and utilities. The average age at weaning was 62 d. The mean cost of rearing from birth to weaning was ￡195.19 per heifer with a mean daily cost of ￡3.14 (excluding the opportunity cost of the calf). This ranged from ￡1.68 to ￡6.11 among farms, reflecting major differences in management strategies and efficiency. The highest contribution to total costs came from feed (colostrum, milk, starter and forage) at 48.5% with milk feeding making up the greatest proportion of this at 37.3%. The next major expenses were bedding and labour, contributing 12.3% and 11.2% respectively. Unsurprisingly, delaying age at weaning increased total cost by ￡3.53 per day. Total costs were on average 45% higher on organic farms than conventional due to higher feed costs and later weaning. Calving pattern also had a strong association with the total cost being lowest with spring calving, intermediate with autumn calving and highest in multi block and all year round calving herds.

Chemo-selective high yield microwave assisted reaction turns cellulose to green chemicals

Exceptionally high cellulose liquefaction yields, up to 87% as calculated from the amount of solid residue, were obtained under mild conditions by utilizing the synergistic effect of microwave radiation and acid catalysis. The effect of processing conditions on degradation products was fingerprinted by rapid laser desorption ionization-mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) method. The reaction was chemo-tunable, enabling production of glucose (Glc) or levulinic acid (LeA) at significantly high selectivity and yields, the relative molar yields being up to 50 and 69%, respectively. A turning point from pure depolymerization to glucose to further degradation to levulinic acid and formic acid was observed at approximately 50% liquefaction or above 140°C. This was accompanied by the formation of small amounts of solid spherical carbonized residues. The reaction was monitored by multiple analytical techniques. The high yields were connected to the ability of the process to break the strong secondary interactions in cellulose. The developed method has great potential for future production of green platform chemicals.

Multiple Factors Drive Decisions Toward Wet or Dry Trees in Deepwater Projects

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper OTC 24517, ’Deepwater Development: Wet or Dry Tree?’ by D. Reid, M. Dekker, SPE, and D. Nunez, Shell, prepared for the 2013 Offshore Technology Conference Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 29-31 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Copyright 2013 Offshore Technology Conference. Reproduced by permission. This paper explores the interplay between field development and lifecycle reservoir management and the selection and operation of dry- or wet-tree host systems for the development and production of deepwater oil and gas fields. Drawing on insights from recent deepwater projects, the selection criteria related to development and reservoir management are highlighted to show the advantages and limitation of the two different host concepts. Introduction In deep water, it is common for approximately one-third of the initial capital investment to be related to the host system. Selection of the host concept is critical and is dependent on a robust understanding of the many upfront development drivers. The host is ultimately the linchpin in the overall development system and is critical to delivering a solution that maximizes economic value during the life of the project, to providing a degree of mitigation against key reservoir and production uncertainties that are inherent in deepwater developments, and to providing flexibility to capture any potential future production upsides that have been identified in the proximal development location. One of the more important decisions related to deepwater host selection is whether to adopt a dry- or wet-tree system. Both systems offer distinct advantages and disadvantages, depending on the context of their application. The selection of a dry- or wet-tree system should be made in the context of the overall development system evaluation. Wet- and Dry-Tree Deepwater Host Systems At a high level, deepwater host development has evolved into four major options, each with various degrees of flexibility in shape and design: Tension-leg platforms (TLPs) Moored semisubmersible platforms Spar platform concepts (conventional, truss, and single-column floater) Floating production, storage, and offload (FPSO) vessels

A risk management approach to the economic and environmental strategic design of ethanol supply chains

A general Mixed Integer Linear Programming modelling framework supporting strategic design and planning decisions for multi-period and multi-echelon ethanol supply chains is developed and implemented. Multiple biomass and technology options involving both first and second generation production are addressed for paving the way towards sustainable and feasible energy infrastructures. The ethanol supply chain is optimised according to a comprehensive mathematical framework where multiple decision criteria are simultaneously considered in an uncertain market scenario. In particular, the economic and environmental performances are both optimised also considering the decision makers' risk mitigation preferences. Carbon cost emissions allowances trading scheme, crop management and technology learning issues are encompassed, too. A demonstrative case study is proposed involving the potential future Italian biomass-based ethanol production. Results show the effectiveness of the modelling framework as a decision making-tool to steer decisions and investments in the long term horizon among different ethanol fuel configurations.

Clean‐Lifting Transfer of Large‐area Residual‐Free Graphene Films

A unique "clean-lifting transfer" (CLT) technique that applies a controllable electrostatic force to transfer large-area and high-quality CVD-grown graphene onto various rigid or flexible substrates is reported. The CLT technique without using any organic support or adhesives can produce residual-free graphene films with large-area processability, and has great potential for future industrial production of graphene-based electronics or optoelectronics.

Coal company valuation, production and reserves

The primary determinants of the value of a coal company are its cash flows and earnings, which is dependent upon the quantity and quality of the coal it produces and coal selling prices; future production potential, which is described by its reserves; and its inventory of capital assets, mining equipment, infrastructure, and acreage. The purpose of this paper is to establish the relationship between the factors that determine company value for a cross-section of publicly traded North American coal companies for the year ending 2010. We review the consolidation trends of North American companies and the factors that impact company value. Companies vary in the size of their reserves and production, earnings, number and type of mines, use of technology and automation, areas of operation, sales markets, degree of diversification, and financial structure. We construct regression models for US and Canadian coal companies according to production, reserves, financial structure, and coal selling price. We show that reserves and assets are strong indicators of market capitalisation and enterprise value. Large producers exhibit a robust correlation between production and reserves, and small companies trade at a premium relative to large producers. We infer effective enterprise value and market cap for a sample of private companies.

Shale-Gas Reserves Estimation: Multiple Decline-Curve-Analysis Models

This article, written by Senior Technology Editor Dennis Denney, contains highlights of paper SPE 161092, ’A New Approach to Reserves Estimation in Shale-Gas Reservoirs Using Multiple Decline-Curve-Analysis Models,’ by Srikanta Mishra, SPE, Battelle Memorial Institute, prepared for the 2012 SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, Lexington, Kentucky, 3-5 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Recent interest in the Marcellus and Utica plays has renewed attention to the problem of reliably estimating recoverable reserves from low-permeability shale-gas formations. Over-optimistic results obtained from the commonly used Arps’ hyperbolic model have led to development of alternative decline-curve-analysis models that are based on empirical considerations (e.g., the Duong power-law model) or mechanistic considerations [e.g., the Valko stretched-exponential-decline model (SEDM)]. This work addressed discriminating between such models (including a new mechanistic model proposed for decline-curve analysis that is based on the Weibull growth curve) with only limited production data. A new approach to aggregating estimated-ultimate-recovery (EUR) forecasts from multiple plausible models is presented. Introduction The use of horizontal drilling, supplemented by multistage hydraulic fracturing, spurred the production of shale gas, including the Barnett, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, and Utica plays. The result is challenges in production forecasting and reserves estimation. Projecting production-decline curves is, perhaps, the single most widely used method for forecasting production from tight gas and shale-gas wells. Future-production potential at any given time and an estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) are assessed by fitting an empirical model of the well’s production-decline trend and by projecting this trend to the well’s economic limit or a common cutoff time (e.g., 30 years). The most commonly used production-decline-curve model is Arps’ hyperbolic model. However, forcing the model to fit production data from shale-gas wells has been found to result in over-optimistic results of EUR, stemming from physically unrealistically high values of the decline exponent to force the fit. Several alternatives have been proposed for analyzing decline curves for tight gas wells. One approach involves constraining the late-time decline rate to a more-realistic value on the basis of experience or analogs. Another approach involves searching for empirical decline-curve models that impose physically meaningful parameter definitions and finite EUR values on model predictions. A key issue associated with the use of multiple models is how to discriminate between them with limited production periods, and how to combine the model results to yield an assessment of uncertainty in reserves estimates.

Using the Porter model to analyze the US elderberry industry

Elderberry, a perennial shrub native to North America with a variety of uses and benefits, is neither well known nor widely utilized as a specialty crop in the US. Up-to-date information is lacking with regard to the elderberry market or market potential. This research identifies the market participants along the value chain, the current status of the industry, direction, future trends, and elderberry market limitations as well as risks and potential opportunities for elderberry producers and processors. A combination of quantitative (mail survey) and qualitative (phone interview) methods have been used. The theoretical model used for the survey and interview development and analysis is based on the Porter Five Forces Model (PFFM) which describes the competitive forces that coordinate and control the market. The PFFM has been used previously to shed light on the chestnut and shiitake mushroom specialty crop markets. Seventy-four mail survey responses and 20 follow-up phone interviews provided information on the market participants, challenges, opportunities and competitive forces in the elderberry industry. Results show a nascent industry with mostly small scale participants poised for growth. Demand trends are favorable and prices are good across the value chain. Challenges include a limited domestic supply of fruit, few regionally adapted varieties suitable for commercial production, and high labor costs. Additionally, the absence of existing mechanical harvesting equipment limits future production potential and industry growth. Respondents identified low levels of competition within the industry at the present time. Based on identified market size and demand, opportunities exist to increase the domestic elderberry industry across the value chain.