Potential Future Land Use Research Articles

Markov Chain Analysis of Land-use Changes in India and Maharashtra

Dynamics of Agriculture resembles the history of agriculture in India which examines the emphasizing significance to the nation's legacy, culture and civilization. India's agriculture changed after independence from a food-scarce nation to one that exports food this comes true primarily due to the result of scientific advancements. The present study is based on secondary data with the use of Markov Chain analysis to ascertain land-use changes in India and Maharashtra state. Changes in land use brought on by agriculture, urbanization and environmental factors significantly impact resource management and sustainability. We build a Markov Chain model with secondary land utilization data from government reports to measure the transition probabilities between various land use categories over time. The Markov chain model is easy to understand and communicate. It effectively captures transitions between land-use changes over time. The model works with limited data as compared to other complex models, making it accessible for studies. The results of the study emphasize dynamic interactions between various land-use patterns in India and Maharashtra. There we have concluded a stable land-use changing pattern. A trend towards intensive cropping has been observed during this study. This study reveals important trends in land conversion, most notably the growth of urban areas at the expense of forested and agricultural areas. The predictive abilities of model highlight the significance of well-informed policy-making for sustainable land management by offering insights into potential future land use scenarios.

Ecosystem adaptation to climate change: the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to time-dynamic model parameters

Abstract. Future hydrological behavior in a changing world is typically predicted based on models that are calibrated on past observations, disregarding that hydrological systems and, therefore, model parameters may change as well. In reality, hydrological systems experience almost continuous change over a wide spectrum of temporal and spatial scales. In particular, there is growing evidence that vegetation adapts to changing climatic conditions by adjusting its root zone storage capacity, which is the key parameter of any terrestrial hydrological system. In addition, other species may become dominant, both under natural and anthropogenic influence. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hydrological model predictions to changes in vegetation parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use changes. We propose a top-down approach, which directly uses projected climate data to estimate how vegetation adapts its root zone storage capacity at the catchment scale in response to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of hydro-climatic variables. Additionally, long-term water balance characteristics of different dominant ecosystems are used to predict the hydrological behavior of potential future land use change in a space-for-time exchange. We hypothesize that changes in the predicted hydrological response as a result of 2 K global warming are more pronounced when explicitly considering changes in the subsurface system properties induced by vegetation adaptation to changing environmental conditions. We test our hypothesis in the Meuse basin in four scenarios designed to predict the hydrological response to 2 K global warming in comparison to current-day conditions, using a process-based hydrological model with (a) a stationary system, i.e., no assumed changes in the root zone storage capacity of vegetation and historical land use, (b) an adapted root zone storage capacity in response to a changing climate but with historical land use and (c, d) an adapted root zone storage capacity considering two hypothetical changes in land use. We found that the larger root zone storage capacities (+34 %) in response to a more pronounced climatic seasonality with warmer summers under 2 K global warming result in strong seasonal changes in the hydrological response. More specifically, streamflow and groundwater storage are up to −15 % and −10 % lower in autumn, respectively, due to an up to +14 % higher summer evaporation in the non-stationary scenarios compared to the stationary benchmark scenario. By integrating a time-dynamic representation of changing vegetation properties in hydrological models, we make a potential step towards more reliable hydrological predictions under change.

Assessment of Agricultural Water Requirements for Semi-Arid Areas: A Case Study of the Boufakrane River Watershed (Morocco)

This work was undertaken to develop a low-cost but reliable assessment method for agricultural water requirements in semi-arid locations based on remote sensing data/techniques. In semi-arid locations, water resources are often limited, and long-term water consumption may exceed the natural replenishment rates of groundwater reservoirs. Sustainable land management in these locations must include tools that facilitate assessment of the impact of potential future land use changes. Agricultural practices in the Boufakrane River watershed (Morocco) were used as a case study application. Land use practices were mapped at the thematic resolution of individual crops, using a total of 13 images generated from the Sentinel-2 satellites. Using a supervised classification scheme, crop types were identified as cereals, other crops followed by cereals, vegetables, olive trees, and fruit trees. Two classifiers were used, namely Support vector machine (SVM) and Random forest (RF). A validation of the classified parcels showed a high overall accuracy of 89.76% for SVM and 84.03% for RF. Results showed that cereal is the most represented species, covering 8870.43 ha and representing 52.42% of the total area, followed by olive trees with 4323.18 ha and a coverage rate of 25%. Vegetables and other crops followed by cereals cover 1530.06 ha and 1661.45 ha, respectively, representing 9.4% and 9.8% of the total area. In the last rank, fruit trees occupy only 3.67% of the total area, with 621.06 ha. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) free software was used to overlay satellite data images with those of climate for agricultural water resources management in the region. This process facilitated estimations of irrigation water requirements for all crop types, taking into account total potential evapotranspiration, effective rainfall, and irrigation water requirements. Results showed that olive trees, fruit trees, and other crops followed by cereals are the most water demanding, with irrigation requirements exceeding 500 mm. The irrigation requirements of cereals and vegetables are lower than those of other classes, with amounts of 300 mm and 150 mm, respectively.

Assessing and analysing the impact of land take pressures on arable land

Abstract. Land, and in particular soil, is a finite and essentially non-renewable resource. Across the European Union, land take, i.e. the increase of settlement area over time, annually consumes more than 1000 km2 of which half is actually sealed and hence lost under impermeable surfaces. Land take, and in particular soil sealing, has already been identified as one of the major soil threats in the 2006 European Commission Communication Towards a Thematic Strategy on Soil Protection and the Soil Thematic Strategy and has been confirmed as such in the report on the implementation of this strategy. The aim of this study is to relate the potential of land for a particular use in a given region with the actual land use. This allows evaluating whether land (especially the soil dimension) is used according to its (theoretical) potential. To this aim, the impact of several land cover flows related to urban development on soils with good, average, and poor production potentials were assessed and mapped. Thus, the amount and quality (potential for agricultural production) of arable land lost between the years 2000 and 2006 was identified. In addition, areas with high productivity potential around urban areas, indicating areas of potential future land use conflicts for Europe, were identified.

An empirical analysis of cultural ecosystem values in coastal landscapes

Coastal areas are especially important to human well-being with half the world's population living within 60 km of the sea and three-quarters of all large cities located in the coastal zone. Supporting and regulatory ecosystem services in coastal areas have received considerable research attention given human vulnerability to climate change, but cultural ecosystem services in the coastal zone are less understood. This study describes and analyzes the distribution of cultural ecosystem values found in coastal areas in multiple countries (n = 5) and compares the results with non-coastal areas. Mapped cultural ecosystem values were collected from public participation GIS (PPGIS) processes in the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and Malaysia and analyzed to identify the type and intensity of ecosystem values located in coastal areas. Mapped ecosystem values were significantly more abundant in all coastal zones, regardless of ecosystem value category, country, population, or dominant land use. Compared to cultural ecosystem values, biological and life-sustaining values were mapped less frequently in the coastal zone. Economic and social values were significantly associated with developed (built) coastal zones, while aesthetic and recreation values were more strongly associated with natural coastal zones. Coastal access, especially by road, influences the mix of perceived values from nature-based values to anthropocentric values. Coastal zones will continue to be the principle location for potential future land use conflict given their high social and cultural value relative to other ecological values. Understanding trade-offs in coastal zone planning and management requires a systematic inventory of the full range of ecosystem services, including cultural services.

Human health risk assessment in restoring safe and productive use of abandoned contaminated sites

In Europe soil contamination has been recognized as a serious problem. The needs to remediate contaminated sites are not questionable, although the remediation actions are often hindered by their very high financial costs. On the other hand, the abandoned contaminated sites may have the potential for redevelopment and creating conditions appropriate for their productive reuse bringing social, economic and environmental benefits. The main concern associated with the contaminated sites is their potential adverse health impact. Therefore, in the process of contaminated site redevelopment the risk assessment and the subsequent risk management decisions will play a crucial role. The main objective of this study was to illustrate the role of the human health risk assessment (HRA) in supporting site remediation and reuse decisions. To exemplify the significance of the HRA process in this field the Nitrastur site, located in Asturias, Spain was used. Risks resulting from soil contamination with arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), mercury (Hg), zinc (Zn) and lead (Pb) were assessed under three potential future land use patterns: industrial, residential and recreational. The results of the study indicated that soil at the Nitrastur site might pose non-cancer and cancer risks to potential future receptors — industrial workers, residents and recreational users. Arsenic and lead are the main substances responsible for the health risk and the primary drivers of remedial decisions at the site. The highest total cancer risks were observed under the residential scenario, followed in descending order by the recreational and industrial ones. The remedial maps illustrate in which areas remediation activities are required, depending on a given land use pattern. The obtained results may be used to develop, analyse, compare and select the remedial options within the intended land use pattern. They may also be used to support the decisions concerning the reuse of the site or to create different redevelopment plans for different parts of the site. The study may help improve understanding and interaction between risk assessors and risk managers which are necessary to make proper, fully informed decisions enhancing public trust and credibility.

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Combining Choice Analysis with Stakeholder Consultation to Assess Management Options for New Zealand’s Hurunui River

Choice experiments can be designed using information gathered in stakeholder consultation processes. Information from these two sources can be used to consider both consultation outcomes and population preferences in environmental decision making. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of New Zealand’s Hurunui River which has been hotly contested between those who seek to divert water and increase agricultural production and those who would like to see the river undeveloped and the natural resources in the river and catchment improved. Data from the choice experiment is used to describe and quantify the preferences of Canterbury Region residents for existing conditions (good quality in the main river and poor quality in the tributaries) and potential future land use scenarios for the catchment. Six scenarios ranging from forestry to intensive irrigation could result in deterioration or improvement. Quantitative information from the choice experiment was provided to policy makers as they considered the outcomes of the consultation process. Community stakeholders agreed on a development strategy for the Hurunui catchment that would improve water quality in the tributaries and maintain quality in the main river. Results from the choice experiment support this approach. Willingness to pay for improvements in the main river was limited but residents would require substantial compensation before they would accept a decline in water quality in the main river or in the tributaries.

Future Land-Use Land-Cover Scenarios for the Flint River Watershed in Northern Alabama Using the Prescott Spatial Growth Model

A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and linkage between human activities and environmental change can prove problematic. Subsequently, there is a need to produce projections of future environments based on planning instruments and socio-economic parameters. Scenarios of potential future land use land cover (LULC) change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on many environmental issues. This study creates future scenarios for the year 2030 from baseline land use of 2001, relative to three projected land use scenarios which include differences related to conservation, planning, and development. The future growth scenarios were created using the ArcGIS tool, Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGM). The model allows users to build different future growth scenarios based on socio-economic projections such as population, employment and other controlling factors. The simulation results indicate that LULC changes associated with future urbanization can increase by ~23% - 43% within the FRW, which will lead to significant environmental issues if not managed properly. The overall analysis and model results demonstrate the ability of future growth scenarios to explore and evaluate options for a future environment. Spatial modeling and analysis tools, such as PSGM, provide a powerful approach to evaluate potential impacts of LULC change in the future and should be used to manage urbanization in areas with more intense development.

Potential future land use threats to California’s protected areas

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

Economic Assessment of the Recreational Value of Ecosystems: Methodological Development and National and Local Application

We present a novel methodology for spatially sensitive prediction of outdoor recreation visits and values for different ecosystems. Data on outset and destination characteristics and locations are combined with survey information from over 40,000 households to yield a trip generation function (TGF) predicting visit numbers. A new meta-analysis (MA) of relevant literature is used to predict site specific per-visit values. Combining the TGF and MA models permits spatially explicit estimation of visit numbers and values under present and potential future land use. Applications to the various land use scenarios of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment, as well as to a single site, are presented.

Development of a Methodology for the Assessment of Vulnerability Related to Wildland Fires Using a Multi‐Criteria Evaluation

AbstractIn the geography of risk, vulnerability may be defined as a physical characteristic that describes the tendency of a territory to suffer damage as a result of the occurrence of certain phenomena. According to this synthetic definition, there are two main components of vulnerability in the context of wildland fires. The first is internal, and is related to the effects of fires on the value of the affected assets affected and their capacity for recovery. The second is external, and is related to the characteristics of fires and the ability of society to deal with the hazards of wildland fires. The aim of the present study is to develop an assessment of spatial vulnerability in the context of wildland fires, at a scale appropriate for planning (1/25 000), in a mountainous region of the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Sierra Calderona). The proposed methodology entailed the definition of a synthetic index associated with the management of the risk of wildland fires, which was made up of significant factors such as the difficulty of extinction, the need for forest defence, the need for civil protection, and territorial value. To define and calculate the factors, variables and indicators that reflected aspects of the components of vulnerability (such as exposure, sensitivity, and the capacity to fight fires) were used. These were combined in a hierarchical structure, each having its own cartographical representation. Geographical information systems and multi‐criteria evaluation were then used to provide a successful framework for the analysis of vulnerability in relation to wildland fires. The cartographical outputs of the various components of the index are of particular interest to the planning of certain activities (e.g. forest, wildland fire, and civil protection), all of which are directly involved in the management of risk. In turn, the final synthetic index provides comprehensive spatial information that is useful for spatial planning and also enables the assessment of potential future land use in view of its usefulness in simulations.